EU Ship Emissions Time to Act...• Early proposal for ECA in Med, Black Sea, NE Atlantic - based on...
20
EU Ship Emissions Time to Act Bill Hemmings Transport and Environment www.transportenvironment.org
Transcript of EU Ship Emissions Time to Act...• Early proposal for ECA in Med, Black Sea, NE Atlantic - based on...
EU Ship EmissionsTime to Act
Bill HemmingsTransport and Environment
www.transportenvironment.org
“Ships fast becoming the biggest source of air pollution in EU” DG ENV website
• Largest EU transport mode; 77% of freight volume
• 30% man-made global NOx from shipping
• 2020 EU shipping > EU land-based SOx/NOx TSAP 2005
• Average Ship fuel world’s dirtiest (S, heavy metals)
• 50,000+ premature deaths annually in EU J Brandt et al. www.CEEH.dk 2011
= 12% (€61bn) of total health costs of Europe air pollution in 2020
• CO2 + 90% since 1990; 6% of global 2020; trebled by 2050
• 12-18% 2°C carbon budget by 2050 - IMO 2009
90% of Shipping NOx/SOx in North Sea and Baltic Sea originates within 90km of coast
In parts of Northern Europe ship emissions account for
>90% exceedance eutrophication critical loads
CEEC,2002a
Sources: Entec UK (2002), EMEP (1997)
Sulphur deposition from international shipping (per cent)
2000 2020
CLE
Source: IIASA (2007)
SO2 projectionsland v shipping
(without revised Annex VI)
85% reduction 1980-2008 in EU27 land-based SO2 emissions IIASA 2004&2010
Higher surface Ozone concentration from shipping
Source:Globalisation, Transport and the Environment © OECD 2010
NOx projectionsland v shipping
(without revised Annex VI)
40% reduction 1980-2008 EU27 land-based NOx emissions IIASA
2010
Annex VI NOx standards are weak
* Standard subject to revision in 2012
The EU and MARPOL Annex VI
• EU unanimous support Annex VI revisions Apr/Oct 2008
• MARPOL; Parties to transpose by entry into force; July 2010
• IMO Code; be ready to implement & enforce thru national legislation
• HU, AT, SK, CZ, Monaco yet to ratify => can’t vote on EEDI
• Annex VI transposed? Yes; DE, DK, FR, NL, PL & SE (-0.1%) …
– Not yet; UK, ES, Estonia, Finland….?
• EU not MARPOL party; thru UNCLOS must adopt laws at least equal to accepted international rules/standards ie MARPOL
Member States in breach of IMO code, EU of UNCLOS
2010 200m coastal ECA
2008 rev ship engines <30 litres regulated for PM/NOx
2006/7 Passenger (not cruise) ships 1.5% outside SECAS
2010 0.1% at berth
EU SO2 – The MARPOL Effect
EU NOx – The MARPOL Effect
Annex VI; what EU should do
• Full transposition into national laws
• Early proposal for ECA in Med, Black Sea, NE Atlantic
- based on detailed emissions analysis
• Distance to shore ECAs eg Med?
• Baltic & N Sea – NOx control areas
• All EU sea areas become full ECAs (SECA, NECA)
• Align cruise and passenger ship standards;– 7 day Alaskan cruise within US ECA; cost $6.60 per pax/per day
• Incorporate Tier II & III NOx standards in Proposal
SECA costs - all ships. Health benefits - only EU!
Source: AEA Technology (Dec 2009)
Scenario 3: Scenario 1 + Mediterranean and Black Seas SECAs
Scenario 1Baltic and North Seas as SECAs
Scenario 1 : North Sea & Baltic Sea 2020
Scenario 3 = 1 + Mediterranean & Black Seas
Abatement costs € 0.9 – 4.6 bn € 2.0 – 12 bn
Health benefits € 10 – 23 bn € 14 – 32 bn
Benefit to cost ratio 2.2 – 26 1.2 - 16
What about PM?
• No PM limit values in Annex VI
• Low S reduces PM but not sufficiently
• Low S does not necessarily reduce BC
• BC both a health and climate problem
• Ship BC big problem for Arctic climate
• Ship BC is growing in EU
BC projectionsEU transport ( kt)
EU ship BC = 40-60+% EU Transport BC by 2030 IIASA 2010
EU; PM & BC Emissions
• EU must press for PM standards in Annex VI+
• Support additional BC action in IMO– eg additional particle standards
– Special measures for Arctic
• Only 0.1% S enables efficient after-treatment for BC– 0.1% global standard next step
• Speed limits in harbours/coastal areas
- reduce SOx/CO2/NOx/BC by ~ 30%
Annex VI and beyond
• EU NOx charge for existing ships– Why wait until 2013+?
• EU must commit to 0.5% S globally from 2020– and work against any delay
– No ECA expansion and NOx inaction prejudicing AQ
• EC feasibility Study of 0.1% globally– Will ensure cleaner/safer distillates– Incremental benefits
– BC (health and climate)
Compliance and Industry
• EMSA; industry studies – extreme cases, exaggerated
• Where is modal shift an issue? 7% of routes?
• Scrubber payback is ~ 0.6-0.9 years
• Enforcement; tamper proof abatement equipment
• Placing on market requirements
• We need availability requirements on suppliers
• Stronger Port state enforcement
EU Ship Emissions
The time to Act
Is Now!
