EU Pigmeat Market Situation · 2018-10-10 · Meat Market Observatory – Economic Board meeting...

Meat Market Observatory – Economic Board meeting 02 October 2018

EU Pigmeat Market Situation

DG AGRI G3 02 October 2018

EXCHANGE RATE INDEX/EURO

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Index of daily exchange rates of the main trading partners compared to the Euro

US Dollar Brazilian Real Canadian Dollar

Russian Rouble Chinese Yuan UK Pound Sterling


PRODUCTION

EU E V O L U T I O N

T O T A L P I G

2016 vs. 2015 2017 vs. 2016 2018 vs. 2017Expe rts 2 0 18

vs.

Expe rts 2 0 17

GIP 2 0 18

vs.

GIP 2 0 17

Q1 + 1.0% - 1.0% + 2.6% + 0.9% + 1.1%

Q2 + 3.2% - 3.3% + 2.9% + 1.1% + 1.1%

Q3 + 1.2% - 0.8% + 1.2% + 2.0%

Q4 + 0.1% + 0.0% + 1.5% + 1.5%

Full year + 1.3% - 1.3% + 1.2% + 1.4%

Real Slaughter

- 4%

- 3%

- 2%

- 1%

+ 0%

+ 1%

+ 2%

+ 3%

+ 4%

+ 5%

2016 vs. 2015 2017 vs. 2016 2018 vs. 2017 Experts 2018 vs.

Experts 2017

GIP 2018 vs.

GIP 2017

Change in EU pigmeat slaughter (2018 forecast based on GIP and experts estimations) ('000 heads)

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Full year


PRODUCTION


T O T A L P I G

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

Pigmeat Q1 Pigmeat Q2 Pigmeat Q3 Pigmeat Q4

65

36

4

63

73

5

63

23

0

66

13

2

64

72

1

61

61

0

62

73

6

66

14

7

66

39

8

63

38

4

0 0

65

38

6

64

04

7

64

69

0

68

65

0

64

43

3

62

69

2

63

97

7

66

94

2

EU pigmeat slaughter in 2016-2018, GIP and expert estimations for 2018('1000 heads)

2016 2017 2018 GIP 2018 Experts 2018f


P R O D U C T I O N

23

.2%

14

.8%

10

.8%

6.9

%

6.0

%

5.7

%

5.5

%

5.4

%

4.5

%

4.4

%

4.4

%

3.9

%

3.7

%

1.8

%

1.6

%

1.5

%

0.8

%

0.5

%

0.2

%

-0.7

%

-0.8

%

-2.1

%

-2.2

%

-2.4

%

-3.3

%

-4.8

%

-5.0

%

-9.9

%

2.7

%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

SK RO LV BG ES PL EE LT NL BE IE UK DK PT SE FR HU HR AT CY DE SI IT CZ LU EL MT FI EU

Change in Pig Slaughter ('000 Heads)

2018/2017 (up to June)

Source: Eurostat

% E V O L U T I O N

IN HEADS


P R O D U C T I O N

23

.4%

15

.0%

9.5

%

9.1

%

8.2

%

7.8

%

6.3

%

5.9

%

5.8

%

4.5

%

4.4

%

4.1

%

3.9

%

3.8

%

2.9

%

2.3

%

2.3

%

2.2

%

2.0

%

0.6

%

0.5

%

-0.3

%

-0.7

%

-1.0

%

-2.2

%

-3.4

%

-9.5

%

-9.7

%

3.7%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

SK RO LV PL BG ES IE EE NL UK LT BE DK EL SE HR HU PT FR AT IT CZ DE SI CY LU FI MT EU

Change in Pig Slaughter ('000 tonnes)

2018/2017 (up to June)

Source: Eurostat

% E V O L U T I O N

IN TONNES


PRODUCTION


T O T A L P I G

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Pig Production (E28 Slaughtering) - Tonnes

2015 2016 2017 2018

Source: Eurostat


P I G P R I C E S


EU

Pric

es

EU Prices Evolution since

last week

146.1Average

(S-E)- 1.7%

- 1.6%147.7Class S

143.6Class E - 1.9%

35.3Piglet - 2.0%€/head

€/1

00

kg

ca

rca

ss w

eig

ht

Evolution since last

month

Evolution since last

year

- 4.6%

- 4.2%

- 5.1%

- 4.0%

- 10.7%

- 10.6%

- 11.0%

- 23.1%

38


P R I C E S

C A R C A S E S

E U E V O L U T I O N

AVERAGE CLASSES S & E

115

130

145

160

175

190

EU evolution of the EU pig carcass prices (average class E & S)(€/ 100kg/cw)

Average (13 -17) 2016 2017 2018

Week 38 latest price ==> 146.14 EUR/100 kg/cw

Evolution compared same period last year : - 10.7%


P R I C E S

C A R C A S E S


Aug-2017 Aug-2018 Aug-2017 Aug-2018 Aug-2017 Aug-2018

CY 211.67 202.32 EL 202.80 175.77 IT 222.20 196.36

EL 202.80 175.77 PT 199.74 174.00 ES 183.98 160.53

PT 198.74 174.16 SI 187.96 170.31 SK 160.72 139.76

BG 207.75 171.69 AT 190.21 169.13 LU 156.57 135.26

IT 183.06 167.99 UK 182.87 168.29 FI 126.67 132.02

UK 180.37 165.30 SE 184.20 166.15 LT 156.45 128.08

SI 177.67 162.20 FI 160.39 164.10 DE 146.14 126.64

SE 181.16 162.01 RO 189.71 160.28 UK 172.49 124.91

FI 156.16 157.78 DE 179.53 157.76 LV 110.81 123.19

AT 178.31 157.08 SK 181.51 157.75 DK 97.65

RO 186.84 155.87 LU 179.41 157.73 EE

SK 175.55 155.65 ES 181.34 157.05

DE 174.74 154.21 HU 182.08 157.01 EU 193.95 167.99HU 178.15 153.47 HR 177.59 154.19

HR 174.71 152.77 EE 166.71 151.75

ES 175.51 152.31 PL 171.92 150.85

LV 168.05 151.75 CZ 174.28 147.95

LU 172.56 150.52 LV 162.40 145.38

PL 169.62 148.50 LT 176.34 143.81

EE 157.70 146.34 FR 165.45 140.87

CZ 169.63 144.28 IE 163.99 137.77

IE 163.11 137.26 DK 160.50 135.37

LT 173.29 134.41 BE 159.19 134.77

FR 157.23 133.48 NL 153.64 133.07

NL 152.50 131.93

DK 154.58 130.01 EU 174.37 151.57BE 149.41 125.15

EU 170.17 148.68

Classe E Classe S Classe R


P R I C E S

P I G L E T S


30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

EU evolution of the EU average piglet prices(€/head)

Average (13 - 17) Piglet - 2016 Piglet - 2017 Piglet - 2018

Week 38 latest price ==> 35.31 EUR/head

Evolution compared same period last year : - 23.1%


R E M A I N D E R

P I G


33 37 34 34 40 53 64 65 69 61 53 48 42 40 43 53 57 62 64 69 64 52 48 43 35 36 35 30 31 40 45 480

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

In E

uro

s

Remainder for pig fattening

Remainder Cost of piglet Feed cost Pig carcass price(€/100 kg)

Average remainder (since March 2012)


R E M A I N D E R

P I G


38 39 40 41 39 49 61 76 77 69 68 52 43 37 35 38 42 52 62 66 63 50 48 41 37 33 39 40 44 52 52 56 60 53 43 35 33 37 34 34 40 53 64 65 69 61 53 48 42 40 43 53 57 62 64 69 64 52 48 43 35 36 35 30 31 40 45 48

0

50

100

150

200

250

I 2013 I 2014 I 2015 I 2016 I 2017 I 2018

In E

uro

s

Remainder for pig fattening

Remainder Cost of piglet Feed cost Pig carcass price(€/100 kg)

Average remainder (since March 2012)

EU trade of PIG products


T R A D E

EU T R A D E B A L A N C E

46 1

35

59 7

20

71 9

37

51 6

41

63 8

00

55 9

18

56 0

77

54 4

99

72 2

76

22 6

12

21 7

30

32 3

68

43 1

79

59 8

38

51 7

89

44 1

93

37 6

55

36 9

67

34 4

87

35 2

45

33 0

66

32 7

88

36 3

51

20 5

43

881

011

943

405

1 08

3 23

0

1 23

8 13

8

1 55

6 96

1

1 54

5 90

7

1 33

1 80

8

1 52

6 56

3

1 50

9 30

2

1 78

0 56

8

1 93

8 45

5

2 08

9 36

3

1 91

0 90

8

2 56

9 08

7

2 38

6 24

5

2 62

7 63

0

3 24

6 48

6

3 24

7 95

6

3 24

2 41

4

3 03

3 83

3

3 36

8 26

0

4 15

6 49

0

3 83

3 75

4

2 24

3 35

7

0

250 000

500 000

750 000

1 000 000

1 250 000

1 500 000

1 750 000

2 000 000

2 250 000

2 500 000

2 750 000

3 000 000

3 250 000

3 500 000

3 750 000

4 000 000

4 250 000

4 500 000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Jan-

Jul 1

8

Tonn

es c

arca

se w

eigh

t

EU Trade of PIG products

IMPORTS EXPORTS

EU imports of selected PIG products Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes carcass weight)


T R A D E

EU I M P O R T S

P i g P r o d u c t s

IMPORT

Compared

tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to Jan- Jul 17

Switzerland 18 207 52% 20 225 61% 22 257 68% 22 922 63% 12 063 59% -5%

Serbia 3 662 10% 1 819 5% 614 2% 2 694 7% 1 947 9% 33%

Norway 3 192 9% 2 315 7% 1 989 6% 2 287 6% 1 746 8% 13%

Chile 3 416 10% 2 896 9% 2 958 9% 2 434 7% 1 629 8% 14%

USA 1 498 4% 1 769 5% 1 711 5% 1 707 5% 973 5% -2%

China 917 3% 380 1% 250 1% 1 315 4% 539 3% 35%

Other 4 353 12% 3 663 11% 3 010 9% 2 994 8% 1 647 8%

Extra-EU 35 245 33 066 32 788 36 351 20 543

% change - 6% - 1% + 11% + 0.9%

2014 2015 2016 Jan-Jul 182017

EU imports of selected PIG products Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes carcass weight)

12 273 12 747 12 063

2301 469 1 947

1 539 1 7461 9831 431 1 6292 9172 765 2 620

18 70320 352 20 543

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

Jan-Jul 16 Jan-Jul 17 Jan-Jul 18

IMPORTS of PIG Meat into EU-28 (Tonnes c. weight)

Switzerland Serbia Norway Chile China Other

9.0 11.4 9.4

0.5

4.1 5.5

6 6.66

4 5.411.7

10.7 10.232.6

38.0 38.1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45


IMPORTS of PIG Meat into EU-28 (Millions EUR)

Switzerland Serbia Norway Chile China Other


T R A D E

EU I M P O R T S


0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

|Jan 16

2016 |Jan 17

2017 |Jan 18

2018

in Tonnes (carcase weight)

Imports of selected PIG products

FRESH FROZEN FAT OTHERS


T R A D E

EU I M P O R T S



W O R L D

P I G M A R K E T

I M P O R T S

PIG MAIN IMPORTERS Ch

ina

+ H.

Kon

g

Chin

a +

H. K

ong

Japa

n

Japa

n

Mex

ico (u

p to

Jun)

Mex

ico (u

p to

Jun)

Sout

h Ko

rea

Sout

h Ko

rea

Unite

d St

ates

Unite

d St

ates

Phili

ppin

es (u

p to

Jun)

Phili

ppin

es (u

p to

Jun)

Cana

da

Cana

da

Aust

ralia

Aust

ralia

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

2017 (up to July) 2018 (up to July)

Qty

in 1

000

Tonn

es

Main Importers of PIG Products (up to July)

Source : GTA Excl. Live animals

EU exports of selected PIG products: Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes carcass weight)

Compared to

tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % Jan-Jul 17

China 717 033 23.6% 1 141 325 33.9% 1 866 355 44.9% 1 398 470 36.5% 785 231 35.0% - 2%

Japan 347 721 11.5% 364 746 10.8% 405 335 9.8% 425 910 11.1% 267 911 11.9% + 4%

South Korea 227 825 7.5% 241 569 7.2% 260 726 6.3% 274 966 7.2% 200 204 8.9% + 16%

Philippines 202 522 6.7% 191 876 5.7% 216 022 5.2% 250 213 6.5% 168 307 7.5% + 11%

Hong Kong 408 183 13.5% 292 391 8.7% 362 492 8.7% 381 013 9.9% 131 651 5.9% - 36%

USA 90 985 3.0% 105 123 3.1% 116 806 2.8% 155 527 4.1% 106 063 4.7% + 14%

Ukraine 106 780 3.5% 96 631 2.9% 75 674 1.8% 88 106 2.3% 55 910 2.5% + 34%

Australia 73 156 2.4% 102 645 3.0% 101 198 2.4% 95 308 2.5% 55 525 2.5% - 6%

Serbia 62 905 2.1% 47 488 1.4% 41 128 1.0% 55 052 1.4% 42 579 1.9% + 42%

Vietnam 16 056 0.5% 38 290 1.1% 53 483 1.3% 41 549 1.1% 40 479 1.8% + 33%

Taiw an 52 970 1.7% 53 701 1.6% 47 865 1.2% 64 392 1.7% 34 861 1.6% - 3%

Ivory Coast 39 773 1.3% 49 766 1.5% 36 385 0.9% 41 433 1.1% 25 601 1.1% + 1%

Other 687 924 22.7% 642 711 19.1% 573 021 13.8% 561 815 14.7% 329 035 14.7%

Extra-EU 3 033 833 3 368 260 4 156 490 3 833 754 2 243 357

% change + 11% + 23% - 8% + 0.9%

2014 2015 2016 Jan-Jul 182017


T R A D E

E U E X P O R T S


EU exports of selected PIG products Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes carcass weight)

1 177 435799 267 785 231

242 008

256 864 267 911

137 052

172 253 200 204

131 862

152 021 168 307

200 528

205 171 131 651

607 567

637 841 690 052

2 496 451

2 223 417 2 243 357

0

500 000

1 000 000

1 500 000

2 000 000

2 500 000

3 000 000


Tons (cw) .

EU-28 EXPORTS of PIG Meat (Tonnes carc. weight)

China Japan South Korea Philippines Hong Kong Other

1 7501 207 1 035

732

827817

284

474471

123186

171

285370

221

1 253 1 468

1 456

4 426 4 532

4 171

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000


in M

illi

on

s E

UR

EU-28 EXPORTS of PIG Meat (Millions EUR)

China Japan South Korea Philippines Hong Kong Other


T R A D E

EU E X P O R T S


0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

450 000

|Jan 16

2016 |Jan 17

2017 |Jan 18

2018

in Tonnes (carcase weight)EU Exports of selected PIG products

FRESH FROZEN FAT LIVE ANIMALS OTHERS


T R A D E

EU E X P O R T S



W O R L D

P I G M A R K E T

E X P O R T S

PIG MAIN EXPORTERS

EU EU

Uni

ted

Stat

es

Uni

ted

Stat

es

Cana

da

Cana

da

Chin

a +

H. K

ong

Chin

a +

H. K

ong

Braz

il

Braz

il

Chile

Chile

Mex

ico

(up

to Ju

n)

Mex

ico

(up

to Ju

n)

Russ

ia (u

p to

Jun)

Russ

ia (u

p to

Jun)

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

2017 (up to July) 2018 (up to July)

Qty

in 1

000

Tonn

es

Main Exporters of PIG Products (up to July)

Source : GTA Excl. Live animals


W O R L D

P I G M A R K E T

PIG PRICES

EU, BR, CAN, US

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

World weekly average Pig prices 2016 - 2018 in Euro/ 100kg carcase (EU, Brazil, Canada and USA)

EU US BR CAN

EU = weighted average of MS prices for classes S (64.12%) and E (35.88%).US = weekly USDA national weighted average carcass prices (https://mpr.datamart.ams.usda.gov/amsdashboard/swine/Swine_Dashboard_Option_1.html)BR = average of Valor Vista prices in main producing states (cepea.esalq.usp.br/br/indicador/suino.aspx)CAN = Quebec Index 100 Hogs Weighted Average prices (agr.gc.ca)

89.53 88.90 72.40148.96

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http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/market-observatory/meat/index_en.htm > Pigmeat


http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/market-observatory/meat/index_en.htm



EU Pigmeat Market Situation · 2018-10-10 · Meat Market Observatory – Economic Board meeting...

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Transcript of EU Pigmeat Market Situation · 2018-10-10 · Meat Market Observatory – Economic Board meeting...