EU M arket S ituation for E ggs and P oultry Management Committee 18 October 2012

EU Market Situation for Eggs and Poultry

Management Committee

18 October 2012

EU market situation for Eggs and Poultry Man Com 18 October 2012


150

160

170

180

190

200

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52

€uro

/ 100kg

Evolution of the weekly EUaverage price for Broiler

Avg 07 - 11 2009 2010 2011 2012


-15,0%

-10,0%

-5,0%

0,0%

5,0%

10,0%

15,0%

BE BG CZ DK DE EE EL ES FR IE IT CY LV LT HU MT NL ÖS PL PT RO SI SK SF SV UK EU

Percentual change of Broiler prices September 2012

- 1 year

- 1 month


50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Jan 10 April Juil Oct Jan-11 April Juil Oct Jan-12 April Juil Oct Jan-13

Euro

/ to

nne

Price of Basic Ingredients 2010 - 2012

Soft wheat (EU)

Barley (EU)

Maïs (EU)

Soja (CAF)

Hulls (EU)

Manioc (CAF)

C.G.F. (CAF)


120

150

180

210

| July | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |Jan 2012| Feb | Mrch | Apr | May | June | July | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |

€uro

/ To

nn

Futures for Feed wheat EU (Euronext) (Nearby = 2011 & 2012)

01 Nearby

2013 Jan

2013 Mar

2013 Nov

Delivery:


160

180

200

220

240

260

| July | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |Jan 2012| Feb | Mrt | Apr | May | Jun | July | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |

€/T

on

n

Futures for Maize EU (Euronext) (Nearby = 2011 - 2012)

01 Nearby

2012 Nov

2013 Mar

2013 Nov

Delivery:


1.100

1.200

1.300

1.400

1.500

1.600

1.700

| July | Aug. | Sept. | Oct. | Nov. | Dec. |Jan 2012| Feb | Mch | Apr | May | Jun | July | Aug. | Sept. | Oct. | Nov. | Dec. |

Futures for Soybeans in US$ct/ Bushel (nearby = 2011 & 2012)

01 Nearby

2012 Nov

2013 Mar

2013 Nov

Delivery:


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

| 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 |

Eu

ro/ T

(fe

ed

)

Eu

ro/ 1

00

kg

(B

roile

r)

Price development of Compound feed for Broilers, a Broiler Cereal-Feedmix and Broiler price

margin broiler/ comp feed (2.7)Cereal-mixCompound feedBroilerAvg. Margin 2007 - 2011

NB. Comp. Feed 2012 =Forecast as from September Cereal mix and Poultry 2012 = Forecast as from October


0

100.000

200.000

300.000

400.000

500.000

| 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 |

Placings of Broiler chicks (1 000 pieces)compared to the baseline trend

(baseline = monthly avg 2006 - 2009)


0

150

300

450

600

750

0

150.000

300.000

450.000

600.000

750.000

| 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 |

Re

alised

slaug

hte

r in

1000 T

Forecast and Production of Broilers.In Tonn

Forecast Realised Poultry slaughter


3.000

5.500

8.000

10.500

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Th

ou

sa

nd

To

ns

Experts EU production forecast 2013

Poultry Eggs for Consumption Total Eggs

2012 2013Poultry: + 0,3% - 0,4%Eggs Cons: - 2,0% + 1,9%Eggs Hatch: + 0,9% - 1,9%Eggs Total: - 1,6% + 1,4%


0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

UEBLBG CZ DK DE EE EL ES FR IE IT CY LV LT HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK

10

00

T

Experts EU production forecast of Poultry Meat: 2012 :12,466 MioT (+ 0.3%) & 2013: 12,412 MioT (-0,4%)

2010 2011

2012 2013

DE+1,4%

FR+1,1%

HU -17,4%

ES-3,7% UK

+2,3%IT-1,4%


0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

1.400

1.600

BE BG CZ DK DE EE EL ES FR IE IT CY LV LT HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK

10

00

T

Experts production forecast of Broiler MeatForecast Broiler production:

2012: 9,570 MioT & 2013: 9,535MioT (-1,4%)

2010

2011

2012

2013

FR +2,0%

ES -5,7%

UK +1,9%

HU - 15,4%

DE +1,3%


0,0

100,0

200,0

300,0

400,0

500,0


10

00

T

Experts production forecast of Turkey MeatForecast EU production

2012: 1 893 Th T & 2013: 1 873 Th T (-1,0%)

2010 2011

2012 2013

DE +0,3% FR

-1,3%

IT -2,8%

HU -18,2%

UK +4,5%


0,0

100,0

200,0


10

00

T

Experts production forecast of Duck MeatForecast EU Duck production

2012: 500 Th T & 2013: 499 Th T (- 0,3%)

2010 2011

2012 2013

UK+3,0%

FR+ 2,1%

HU-12,2%

BG+9,5%


Import of Poultry meat from selected origins

Compared

tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to Jan-Aug 11

Brazil 679.469 76,3% 659.368 75,3% 581.391 72,4% 587.404 71,0% 373.698 68,9% - 6%

Thailand 146.882 16,5% 141.524 16,2% 149.682 18,6% 154.229 18,6% 110.302 20,3% + 4%

Chile 34.718 3,9% 39.022 4,5% 34.276 4,3% 44.306 5,4% 29.801 5,5% + 5%

China 15 0,0% 5.690 0,6% 9.997 1,2% 13.735 1,7% 9.438 1,7% + 5%

Argentina 20.416 2,3% 20.576 2,3% 15.760 2,0% 15.630 1,9% 9.171 1,7% - 10%

Israel 6.252 0,7% 5.470 0,6% 7.249 0,9% 7.084 0,9% 3.558 0,7% - 15%

Croatia 1.884 0,2% 2.295 0,3% 2.650 0,3% 2.714 0,3% 1.822 0,3% + 2%

USA 393 0,0% 386 0,0% 439 0,1% 99 0,0% 203 0,0% + 246%

Uruguay 109 0,0% 98 0,0% 2 0,0% 7 0,0% 1 0,0%

EXTRA EU 25/27 891.087 875.886 803.120 827.420 542.043

% change - 2% - 8% + 3% - 3,1%

2008 2009 2010 Jan-Aug 122011


0

10.000

20.000

30.000

40.000

50.000

60.000

70.000

80.000

90.000

100.000

|Jan06

2006 |Jan07

2007 |Jan08

2008 |Jan09

2009 |Jan10

2010 |Jan11

2011 |Jan12

in Tonnes cwe

Imports of selected Poultry products

FROZEN PREPARED SALTED OTHERS


EU Poultry meat Import

382.761 398.783 373.698

98.772105.609

110.302

4.689

527.912559.240 542.043

0

100.000

200.000

300.000

400.000

500.000

600.000

Jan-Aug 10 Jan-Aug 11 Jan-Aug 12

Tonnes cw

IMPORTS of Poultry Meat into EU (Tonnes cwe)

Brazil Thailand Israel Chile China Other destinations

761.161 847.432 792.730

389.009449.040 487.542

1.276.641

1.450.350 1.451.164

0

200.000

400.000

600.000

800.000

1.000.000

1.200.000

1.400.000

1.600.000


1000EUR

IMPORTS of Poultry Meat into EU (1000 EUR)

Brazil Thailand Israel Chile China Other destinations


Export of Poultry Meat to Selected Destinations

Compared


Saudi Arabia 95.132 9,7% 97.485 9,6% 118.020 9,3% 151.269 10,7% 97.149 10,5% - 3%

Hong Kong 58.669 6,0% 88.357 8,7% 151.559 12,0% 188.345 13,3% 86.254 9,3% - 31%

Benin 83.405 8,5% 84.912 8,4% 115.065 9,1% 126.022 8,9% 86.772 9,4% + 8%

South Africa 6.295 0,6% 7.938 0,8% 22.007 1,7% 94.163 6,7% 82.105 8,9% + 65%

Russia 230.113 23,4% 227.555 22,4% 245.478 19,4% 115.001 8,1% 69.637 7,5% - 6%

Ukraine 112.444 11,4% 89.314 8,8% 86.007 6,8% 81.736 5,8% 65.566 7,1% + 36%

Ghana 31.530 3,2% 28.694 2,8% 41.069 3,2% 68.896 4,9% 45.348 4,9% + 2%

Yemen 26.673 2,7% 36.331 3,6% 39.632 3,1% 37.970 2,7% 23.793 2,6% + 1%

Congo (Dem. Rep.) 21.386 2,2% 20.903 2,1% 27.749 2,2% 29.950 2,1% 19.667 2,1% + 9%

Switzerland 28.200 2,9% 28.111 2,8% 29.804 2,4% 29.330 2,1% 19.266 2,1% - 0%

Malaysia 17.888 1,8% 22.676 2,2% 25.899 2,0% 20.965 1,5% 17.199 1,9% + 49%

Vietnam 39.488 4,0% 39.971 3,9% 31.674 2,5% 29.086 2,1% 16.003 1,7% - 15%

Extra-EU27 982.286 1.015.784 1.265.183 1.411.142 926.523

% change + 3% + 25% + 12% + 2,6%

2008 2009 2010 Jan-Aug 122011


0

20.000

40.000

60.000

80.000

100.000

120.000

140.000

|Jan06

2006 |Jan07

2007 |Jan08

2008 |Jan09

2009 |Jan10

2010 |Jan11

2011 |Jan12

inTonnescwe

Exports of selected Poultry products

FROZEN PREPARED FRESH OTHERS


EU Poultry meat Export

84.007 125.811 86.254

82.105

100.399 97.14973.175

79.987 86.772151.625

74.151 69.637

376.444

473.252 504.606

767.776

903.362 926.523

0

100.000

200.000

300.000

400.000

500.000

600.000

700.000

800.000

900.000

1.000.000


Tonnes cw

EU EXPORTS of Poultry Meat (Tonnes cwe)

Hong Kong South Africa Saudi Arabia Benin Russia Other destinations

80.301 105.981 99.04289.548

151.661 137.05579.330

95.368 117.63088.148

108.109

548.577

673.266739.900

965.128

1.160.780

1.291.284

0

200.000

400.000

600.000

800.000

1.000.000

1.200.000

1.400.000


1000 EUR

EU EXPORTS of Poultry Meat (1000 EUR)

Hong Kong South Africa Saudi Arabia Benin Russia Other destinations


EU Poultry meat Trade Balance

302277 292 310

371

676

794

480

614 616

858891 876

803827

542

1.017

1.101 1.1161.153

1.114

1.275

1.063 1.046997 997

867

9821.016

1.265

1.411

927

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

1.400

1.600

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Jan-Aug 12

in 100

0 To

nnes cwe

IMPORTS EXPORTS


50,00

75,00

100,00

125,00

150,00

175,00

200,00

08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 |

Broiler prices in EU, USA and Brazilin €uro/ 100kg

EU broiler US broiler €uro BR Broil €uro/ (Ave world)

2001 2002 2003 2004

20052006 2007 2008

2009 2010 2011 2012

EU Market Situation for Eggs

Management Committee 18 October 2012



85

105

125

145

165

185

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52

€u

ro/

10

0k

g

Evolution of the weekly EU average price for Eggs for Consumption

Avg 07 - 11 2009 2010avg 2011 2012


-15,0%

-5,0%

5,0%

15,0%

25,0%

35,0%

45,0%

55,0%

BE BG CZ DK DE EE EL ES FR IE IT CY LV LT HU MT NL ÖS PL PT RO SI SK SF SV UK EU

Percentual change of Egg prices September 2012

- 1 year

- 1 month


0

40

80

120

160

200

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51

€uro

/ 100kg

Prices for Eggs for consumption and Eggs for breaking 2011 - 2012

EU Low difference Eggs for Consumption US High breaking

133.3 % increase for Eggs for Breaking from week 1 2011 to week 40 201249,0% increase for Eggs for Consumption from week 1 2011 to week 40 2012


0

30

60

90

120

150

180

0 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 ja fe mr ap ma jn jl au se oc no de

Euro

/ 100kg

Margin between Feed cost and Egg price in Egg production

marge

feed

egg

Avg Margin


Placings of Laying chicks (1 000 pieces)compared to the baseline trend

(baseline= monthly avg 2006 - 2009)

0

7.500

15.000

22.500

30.000

37.500

| 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 |


Production forecast ofeggs in shell (Mio p).

compared to the price development

4.000

5.500

7.000

8.500

| 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 |

0

40

80

120

160

Pric

e €

uro

/10

0k

g


Trad. Cage33 99314,0%

Enr. Cage61 95225,6%

Free Range15 3016,3%

Barn58 60424,2%Organic

6 9872,9%

Other 1)65 35327,0%

Number of Laying Hens 2011by way of keeping the total of several EU Member States

"Other" animals based on Eurofarm Structure survey 2007Methods of production communicated accordingly to Reg. 589/2008

1) Other = Difference between the total of the Eurofarm Structure survey and the total of the communications according to Reg. 589/2008

only 14 communicated dataaccording to Reg. 589/2008


0

200

400

600

800

1.000

UEBLBG CZ DK DE EE EL ES FR IE IT CY LV LT HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK

10

00

T

Experts EU production forecast of Total Eggs(Eggs in shell + Hatching Eggs)

2012: 7,931 MioT (- 1.6%) & 2013: 7,029 MioT (+1,4%)

2010 2011 2012 2013

BG +6,6%

IT -0,6%

RO +2,9%

DE +0,6%

FR +6,1%

NL +2,7%

HU+2,4%

FI+3,9%


0

200

400

600

800

1.000


10

00

T

Experts EU production forecast of Eggs for consumption2012: 6,331 MioT (- 2.0%) & 2013: 6,433 MioT (+1,9%)

2010 2011 2012 2013

BG +9,2%

EI +2,7%

UK +1,8

HU +3,8%

CZ -10,1%

ES +9,7%

NL +3,1%

RO+3,7%


Compared


USA 4.245 18,6% 11.165 36,7% 13.439 42,9% 5.417 28,4% 10.559 40,8% + 143%

Argentina 6.164 27,0% 7.899 26,0% 7.888 25,2% 7.898 41,5% 8.097 31,3% + 80%

Mexico 2.002 8,8% 1.893 6,2% 1.425 4,5% 556 2,9% 1.017 3,9% + 426%

Albania 2.209 9,7% 1.659 5,5% 3.208 10,2% 1.303 6,8% 1.377 5,3% + 322%

India 6.593 28,9% 5.776 19,0% 3.211 10,2% 1.505 7,9% 1.565 6,1% + 44%

Israel 646 2,8% 711 2,3% 941 3,0% 547 2,9% 1.045 4,0% + 118%

Canada 1 0,0% 33 0,1% 2 0,0% 0 0,0% 67 0,3%

Brazil 64 0,3% 67 0,2% 0 0,0% 0 0,0% 0 0,0%

EXTRA EU 25/27 22.850 30.409 31.356 19.045 25.855

% change + 33% + 3% - 39% + 107,6%

2008 2009 2010 Jan-Aug 122011

EU Imports of Eggs:Trade Figures (Comext – tonnes egg equiv.) not incl. Hatching eggs


EU Egg Imports

11.602

4.342

10.559

5.642

4.490

8.097

3.782

2.207

4.190

25.993

12.453

25.855

0

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

30.000


Total EU Import of Eggs - not incl. Hatching eggs

(Tonnes eggs equiv)

USA ArgentinaIndia CanadaAlbania Other destinations

11.1998.484

16.580

4.449

3.415

6.6302.553

3.653

22.531

15.205

30.470

0

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

30.000

35.000


Total EU Import of Eggs - not incl. Hatching eggs

(1000 EUR)

USA ArgentinaIndia CanadaAlbania Other destinations


0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

7.000

8.000

|Jan06

2006 |Jan07

2007 |Jan08

2008 |Jan09

2009 |Jan10

2010 |Jan11

2011 |Jan12

in Tonnes egg equiv.

EU-27 Imports of selected EGGS products(including Hatching eggs)

FRESH Albumin Not In Shell Yolk Haching


Compared


Japan 62.254 33% 47.238 31% 52.923 29% 65.982 30% 44.032 36% - 3%

Sw itzerland 44.229 24% 43.499 29% 45.107 25% 42.152 19% 27.690 22% - 1%

Russia 7.113 4% 4.360 3% 5.293 3% 4.947 2% 3.824 3% + 32%

Angola 4.049 2% 4.019 3% 10.227 6% 17.498 8% 11.683 9% - 11%

Libya 0 0% 40 0% 201 0% 226 0% 233 0%

Thailand 6.190 3% 4.068 3% 6.180 3% 7.254 3% 3.941 3% + 1%

Ukraine 7.250 4% 4.304 3% 5.693 3% 4.422 2% 2.606 2% - 4%

Taiw an 4.624 2% 2.868 2% 7.145 4% 7.941 4% 3.663 3% - 19%

South Korea 1.859 1% 1.948 1% 2.495 1% 4.379 2% 2.127 2% - 14%

U.A.Emirates 9.436 5% 2.664 2% 5.864 3% 8.262 4% 1.176 1% - 78%

Norw ay 1.805 1% 963 1% 570 0% 1.300 1% 788 1% + 4%

Israel 6.002 3% 3.398 2% 1.308 1% 2.729 1% 856 1% - 55%

EXTRA EU 25/27 187.209 150.173 181.682 216.447 123.297

% change - 20% + 21% + 19% - 14,1%

2008 2009 2010 Jan-Aug 122011

EU Exports of Eggs:Trade Figures (Comext – tonnes egg equiv.) not incl. Hatching eggs


34.48045.235 44.032

30.513

28.017 27.690

38.210

54.226

34.893

110.829

123.297

0

10.000

20.000

30.000

40.000

50.000

60.000

70.000

80.000

90.000

100.000

110.000

120.000

130.000


Total EU Export of Eggs not incl. hatching eggs (T. eggs equiv.)

Japan Switzerland Russia Angola Iraq Other destinations

24.277 30.257 36.723

43.806 37.62141.058

3.782

37.698

52.12543.426113.126

135.606141.771

0

20.000

40.000

60.000

80.000

100.000

120.000

140.000

160.000


Total EU Export of Eggs not incl. hatching eggs (1000 EUR)

Japan Switzerland Russia Angola Iraq Other destinations

EU Egg Exports


0

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

30.000

|Jan06

2006 |Jan07

2007 |Jan08

2008 |Jan09

2009 |Jan10

2010 |Jan11

2011 |Jan12

in Tonnes egg equiv.

EU-27 Exports of selected EGGS products (including Hatching eggs)

FRESH Albumin Not In Shell Yolk Haching


1018

2318 17

27

16

30

69

2530

3945

2330 31

1926

144

164

186

209

231

201 205

191

142

198 198202

167

187

150

182

216

123

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Jan-Aug12

in 1000 TonnesIMPORTS EXPORTS

EU Egg Trade Balance (not including Hatching eggs)


Egg prices the EU, USAand Brazilin €uro/ 100kg

50,00

75,00

100,00

125,00

150,00

175,00

08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 |

EU egg US egg €uro BR Egg €uro (Ave World)

EU M arket S ituation for E ggs and P oultry Management Committee 18 October 2012

Documents

Transcript of EU M arket S ituation for E ggs and P oultry Management Committee 18 October 2012