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EU Foreign Policy
Overview January 2017
EU Foreign Policy Research Group
Dear Readers,
January 2017 was greatly influenced by the beginning of the presidency of Donald J. Trump. After his
unexpected victory in November elections, the feeling of uncertainty has been prevailing. Some of the statements of the
president-elect suggested that US foreign policy might face a major turn, for example in the case of relations with Russia
or China. Even after Donald Trump was sworn in the office on 20th January, the uncertainty persists. Aggressive and
unexpected decisions taken in the first weeks of his presidency did not alleviate distress or even confirmed some fears.
The European Union is one of the entities that has reasons to closely observe this situation. The US – EU
relations could face numerous problems as topics important from the point of view of the EU, such as free trade, climate
change or human rights are a subject of neglect for Mr. Trump. These and many other issues, including as vital ones as
the importance of NATO, can produce major disagreements between the so-far strategic partners. As a result, European
leaders have been rather sceptical about Donald Trump’s presidency and currently are trying to understand his goals and
maintain mutual relations on the strategic level.
In our January EU Foreign Policy Overview, many researchers decided to bring up this topic and assess its
influence on the region of their expertise and indirectly on the EU as a whole. Is the strategic transatlantic partnership in
a danger? Will China fill in the gap created by the US withdrawal from trade deals and international agreements? What
can the closer Russia – USA cooperation mean for Europe?
These and many other problems are considered in our second publication. We hope that it will invite you to
look at the EU foreign policy and role in the world from a wider, global perspective.
Kinga Jaromin
Head of EU Foreign Policy
Research Group
Contents
5 Africa
7 Australia and Oceania
9 China and East Asia
11 Middle East and North Africa
13 Russia and Eastern Europe
15 Turkey and Caucasus
17 United States of America
19 Western Balkans 21 References
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Balázs
Kele
Africa
Since the end of colonisation, African states have been struggling to become
a part of the globalised world. Long-term statistics, such as the Fragile State
Index Decade Trends, demonstrate that most of the African countries
stagnate in this effort, at least from the point of human rights protection as
many of the improvements are elusive. Internal tensions, such as ethnic or
religious grievances are common on the continent, even in Nigeria and
South Africa, which aspire to the leading role in Sub-Saharan Africa.
The presence of the EU military or civil-military missions will be continued
in 2017 in many countries where tensions seem to be permanent. In northern
Mali, since the 2012 uprising, low-intensity violence between the
government, Islamists and separatists continues. Lately, a suicide bombing
in a military camp resulted in numerous casualties from governmental forces
(CNN, 2017a). The situation is similar in Somalia, where attacks of the
Islamist militant group al-Shabaab, such as the bombing of a downtown
hotel in Mogadishu, are recently on the rise (Al Jazeera, 2017). In the
Central African Republic, tensions between Muslim and Christian
communities and different rebel groups are also long lasting. Expectedly, the
EU is going to extend the operations in these aforementioned countries, as
the situation will not ameliorate in the immediate future. Especially France
is one of the biggest advocates of the EU involvement in Africa due to
special relations with its former colonies, and it puts pressure on those EU
countries, which do not want to engage in the region.
Several other Sub-Saharan states are struggling with instability. In Sudan
and South Sudan clashes between rebels and governmental forces are
common, while peace deals are often violated by both sides (Sudan Tribune,
2017). Peaceful power transitions are rare in the continent. Numerous
leaders cling to their positions, which also causes tensions during elections.
In the Democratic Republic of Congo president Joseph Kabila finally seems
to accept the necessity to step down as opposition urged him to do so, but on
the other hand, it has just increased fear and uncertainty in the country
(Africa News, 2016). The EU and the international community should
consider acting in such circumstances and assisting in the stabilisation
processes of the country. Such action would be required also in East Congo,
where low-intensity crisis aggravates the life of local people. Possible future
scenarios are also negative in Zimbabwe, as president Robert Mugabe will
not step down voluntarily.
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China and East Asia A case of power transition could open Zimbabwe to the world, including the
EU, as currently Mugabe clearly pursues anti-Western foreign policy. In the
Gambia, president Yahya Jammeh lost the elections to his opponent Adama
Barrow, but decided to stay in power. Finally, the lawful president seized the
power with the help of Senegalese army (CNN, 2017b).
A good counter-example could be Nigeria, where power transition from
former president Jonathan Goodluck to the President Muhammadu Buhari
was relatively peaceful. However, Nigeria is still struggling with Biafra
region separatism in the Niger delta and Boko Haram insurgency in the
north. In January the Nigerian air force accidentally bombed a refugee camp
in Borno region (instead of the Islamist insurgents), which clearly indicates
the incompetence of the Nigerian forces (CNN, 2017c). For this important
oil exporter, low oil prices are a clear obstacle to the prosperity, narrowing
down the room for a manoeuvre for President Buhari.
BRICS member, South Africa has also internal problems as the public
support for the ruling party; African National Congress dwindled into
nothing due to the weak and slow economic recovery.
Moreover, in January, Morocco rejoined the African Union and after a
lengthy procedure Chadian diplomat, Moussa Faki Mahamat was elected an
African Union Commission chairperson. As Chad is a former French colony,
the election of Moussa Faki could be seen as a promising sign for France
and for the EU.
To sum up, the prospects of Sub-Saharan states are far from perfect and it
seems that 2017 will be another difficult year, just like previous decades.
The EU has relatively good chances to tighten relations with African
states; however, the economic cooperation between the two is already very
tight. On the other hand, the EU is still struggling to regain its political
influence over the region from Asian powers. The loss of political
influence could be explained by the strength of the competitors, such as
China and India, but partly it could be seen as a weakness of the EU
caused by the lack of political unity.
Jakob McKernan
Australia and
Oceania
Given the way in which Donald Trump fought his election campaign, it is no
great surprise that his first week in office was as haphazard and antagonistic
as it has proven to be. While the resulting chaos has predominately been felt
in Mexico, the Middle East and in Europe, President Trump’s apparent effort
to do away with the norms that have governed the post war global order have
also been felt in the Oceania region. The fashion in which the newly elected
President conducted his first telephone conversation with Australian Prime
Minister, Malcolm Turnbull, was particularly notable in this regard.
Accordingly, governments, policy makers and stakeholders in the region
have focused their attention firmly on developments in Washington over the
last month.
That being said, January did see a number of developments in regard to
European interests, particularly in relation to the prospective free trade
agreement with New Zealand. At the beginning of the month, New Zealand
Prime Minister Bill English travelled to Europe to meet EU leaders, as well
as Prime Minister May and Chancellor Merkel. Although Brexit and the
election of Trump inevitably cast a shadow over the trip, the focus was
firmly on beginning FTA negotiations. The fact that English, rather
unusually, met with all EU leaders - Tusk, Juncker and Schulz - speaks to the
desire of both sides to conclude a deal quickly. And with the US now having
formally pulled out of TPP negotiations, an FTA with the EU will only
become more attractive for New Zealand.
The announcement that a general election will take place on the 23rd of
September capped a busy first month for English in the Prime Minister role.
Although there is a considerable anti-trade fringe in New Zealand politics,
there is a broad consensus among the mainstream that open trading regimes
are in New Zealand’s interests. Accordingly, should the incumbent National
Part fail to retain its position following the election, the FTA negotiations are
unlikely to be put in jeopardy.
Prime Minister of Vanuatu, Charlot Salwai, was also welcomed in Brussels
for the 4th Enhanced Political Dialogue between the EU and Vanuatu. The
Prime Minister met with President Juncker and with Commissioner Miguel
Arias Canete and Neven Mimica.
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Although talks chiefly focused on short-term visa waivers and tax reform,
there was also a joint recognition that negotiations on a replacement for the
Cotonou Agreement (the treaty which frames EU – ACP relations) should
include areas such as climate change, sustainable development and disaster
risk reduction. How these negotiations play out over the next couple of years
will largely determine the nature of the EU’s relationship with the region and
as such should remain a priority.
While Donald Trump’s erratic foreign policy and the start of Brexit
negotiations are likely to capture European attention in the short term, the EU
should not fail to grasp the opportunities available in the Oceania region. The
rapid conclusion of an FTA with New Zealand would not only serve its
economic interests but would also offer a reminder that EU remains a trade
super power in an increasingly protectionist world. Similarly, the upcoming
negotiations for a post-2020 ACP – EU agreement offer an excellent
opportunity for the EU to demonstrate that it can have a significant impact on
the issues that will dominate global affairs over the coming decades; most
prominently climate change and global economic development.
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Evelyn
Shi
China and
East Asia
The event of Donald Trump being sworn in as the 45th President of the
United States has marked the month of January across the whole world. This
fact can have a significant impact on China and other East Asian countries as
Mr. Trump appears to perceive China as the main competitor with the USA,
especially in the sphere of economics and he attempts to challenge it. Some
examples of such approach include threatening to impose tariffs on Chinese
imports or questioning the One China policy through a phone call conducted
in December with Taiwan’s leader Tsai Ing-wen.
As a result, Chinese leaders have been criticising the US administration for
putting China’s policies into question and urging that a “trade war” would
bring no winners. It seems that they are doing everything to avoid a conflict
with Trump; they have even banned online “unauthorised criticism” of him.
This strategy seems successful, as there are signs that President Trump has
expressed his wish of a “constructive relationship” with China in a letter to
President Xi Jinping when extending his greetings ahead of the Lantern
Festival.
However, such gestures cannot be overinterpreted because Trump's
presidency already is characterised by major unpredictability. Tensions
about both the South China Sea as well as about the East China Sea may
arise again since Trump is strengthening the alliance with Japan and South
Korea. It could deteriorate the relationship between China and Japan
regarding, for example, the disputed Senkaku islands. Trump’s Secretary of
Defense, James Mattis, even vowed that the US would defend Japan’s
position in this conflict. Nevertheless, even here, the bonding will is
uncertain, since Trump has threatened to subtract his troops from this
territory if Japan does not contribute a higher cost for hosting US bases
within its borders. Nonetheless, this alliance would be very much welcomed
by Japan and South Korea, since they see their security at stake due to the
dominant positions of North Korea and China in the nuclear field. Seoul has
already agreed to deploy the U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense anti-
missile system and Mattis is seeking to strengthen this alliance while South
Korea is still struggling with the aftermath of the corruption scandal with
President Park Guen-hye.
Furthermore, the danger of a “monetary war” also arises. Last year, the
Chinese currency had to consider a major devaluation.
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China and East Asia Despite all the allegations of Trump, it was not a deliberate move but
rather a necessity of market economy. However, if the US decides to
degrade its currency on purpose (which might happen, because of the late-
night call to his National Security Adviser when Trump asked for advice
whether the US wanted a weak or a strong Dollar), other global players
(such as the EU) would also have to take actions, and the Euro would be at
stake.
As a result, the credibility of the US is fading by Trump’s unpredictability of
always changing his foreign policy positions and unorthodox diplomatic
moves. Although President Trump’s actions seem rather imprudent and
impulsive at first sight, the motives in the background should not be
underestimated. The decision to abandon the Trans-Pacific Partnership
(TPP) may be less a product of a populist thought but rather an attempt to
renegotiate the rules of trade deals with the region in favour of the USA.
Anyway, by cancelling the TPP negotiations, Trump has made the US a very
trust-unworthy strategic partner, meaning that China could expand its
domain of influence in the region, as the dismayed US-allies inevitably seek
for a more reliable trade partner. As a result, China might be empowered to
carry forward its Belt and Road Initiative, precisely by inviting the TPP
member states to join the Beijing-supported Regional Comprehensive
Economic Partnership, a free trade agreement that is now negotiated
between the ASEAN countries and their trading partners.
In such an antagonising situation, China's relations with the European
Union are on a good track. President Xi Jinping’s visit to
the Davos summit has had positive effects on the view of EU countries
towards China. Many European leaders, such as the EU trade
commissioner Cecilia Malmström, often quote his commitment to the
importance of globalisation and the principles of regulated trade. To
further boost openness and globalisation, Malmström proposed that both
China and the EU should continue with the reform agenda by bilateral
investment talks to pave the way to enter each other’s market on fair terms.
In addition, the current President of the French Republic Hollande praised
China’s effort in environmental protection and welcomed its economic
strategy.
Now, that the British House of Commons has backed the government by
voting in favour of the Brexit, the UK is likely to trigger Article 50, which
would initiate negotiations for future trade agreements. The UK seem to
tend towards trade agreements with the major trading powers, as May
visited the US not long ago and is planning to also pay China a visit this
year. China believes that negotiations with the UK will lead to a “win-win
deal”. In fact, the ancient trading Silk Road has already been revived; the
first train is on its 16-days-route from China to the UK, fully loaded with
imports from China.
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Stefan
Pfalzer
Middle East and
North Affrica
On January 15, French Minister of Foreign Affairs Jean-Marc Ayrault hosted
the Conference for peace in the Middle East in Paris as a part of the Middle
East Peace Initiative to stress the urgency of a resumption of negotiations
between Israel and the Palestinian Authority. The European Union was
present at the conference, unlike Israel and the Palestinian Authority, and
saw a document passed that welcomed the UN Security Council (UNSC)
resolution 2334 of December 23, 2016, which underlines the importance of a
two-state solution and calling for an end of Israeli settlements (Diplomatie,
2017).
Developments later last month then made clear how limited the influence of
the EU and the international community is with regard to the Israeli-
Palestinian conflict as Israel ordered the construction of 566 new settlements
in East Jerusalem, disregarding the UNSC resolution 2334 and the outcome
document of the Paris conference (Le Monde, 2017). A further 3000
settlements in the West Bank were then approved by the Israeli government
in late January (Fisher and Kershner, 2017). The EU's efforts are undermined
by the fact that Israel bases its actions on US support of which it has recently
been assured after talks between Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu
and designated US president Donald Trump. Could the EU emancipate itself
and assume a more decisive role in the Middle East?
In the current volatility of affairs caused by the beginning of the Trump
administration, the EU has lost some of its influence in the Middle East
since Trump's statements have given reasons to doubt the future of the
transatlantic partnership. Subsequently, Russia seems to have filled the
power vacuum, as evidenced by the conference on Syria taking place in
Astana, Kazakhstan, sponsored by Russia, Iran and Turkey. For the first time
since the beginning of the civil war, rebel forces took part in peace
negotiations. The outcome agreement under which the sponsors commit to
limit violations of the ceasefire negotiated in December 2016 was signed
neither by the Syrian government nor the opposition (Wintour, 2017a).
Regardless of the outcome, it is remarkable that not only enemies within
Syria joined the negotiation table, but also that Turkey assumed sponsorship,
an indication of rapprochement between Erdogan and Putin. The alliance
also brings about the emancipation of Iran, much to the displeasure of
Western powers.
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China and East Asia Boris Johnson, UK Foreign Secretary, has recently spoken out against an
increase of Iranian influence in the region. Moreover, he has conceded that
Syrian president Bashar al-Assad should be allowed to run for re-election
and mentioned the UK's willingness to join Russia in the fight against the
so-called Islamic State (Wintour, 2017b).
This change of policy comes as a surprise and would have been unthinkable
only weeks ago, as the UK has been critical of Russia's involvement in the
Syrian civil war. Could this lead to a change of the course for the EU's Syria
policy? So far, the EU has hesitated to embark on any Russian-led initiative.
The UK's motives to approach Russia may well be incentivized by the
prospect of a stronger partnership with the US after Brexit and recent
statements — such as the ones made by Johnson — could thus be interpreted
as an adoption of President Trump's rapprochement towards Russia. The
EU's commitment to rally key players like Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia for
post-conflict preparations in Syria could give rise to renewed tensions as a
Russian-Turkish alliance could further burden relations between both of
those countries and the EU.
On January 27, President Trump signed an executive order imposing a ban
for citizens of Libya, Sudan, Somalia, Yemen, Iraq, Iran and Syria. Of the
countries affected, only Iran countered with comparable measures and itself
imposed a travel ban for US citizens. Three days later, Iran launched a
medium-range ballistic missile test which was decisively condemned by the
US and called it a breach of the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal and of UNSC
resolution 2231 called a breach of the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal and of
UNSC resolution 2231 which calls on Iran to desist from testing missiles
capable of carrying a nuclear weapon (Aljazeera 2017).
While Russia said that the test did not violate the resolution, statements of
EU representatives also displayed mild formulations. This could hint at the
EU's motive to keep Iran integrated into the international community and not
to ruin possible EU-Iran cooperation concerning energy trade agreements
and in the fight against the so-called Islamic State. The EU's reaction likely
mirrors a certain interest, as the reaction to the Iranian missile launch in
April 2016 exemplifies as well.
Iran's motive for the missile launch, however, remains doubtful. While Iran's
intention to threaten Israel might not be the answer, since medium-range
ballistic missiles would not suffice to reach Israeli territory, the test could be
seen as a reaction to naval manoeuvres carried out by US, UK and French
warships near the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf (Merrill 2017).
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Kinga
Jaromin
Russia and
Eastern Europe
The month of January, although did not bring any significant change to the
EU – Russia relations, witnessed at least two major events which may
influence both entities in the close future. One of them was a beginning of
“Syria peace talks” in Astana on January 23rd which is a product of close
Russia – Turkey cooperation and is supposed to demonstrate that Russia is a
strong player in the Middle East and therefore globally. The talks started
with difficulties and are not expected to produce any positive outcome in the
short-term, nonetheless, they can be used by Russia as a success story and a
tool to undermine the position of the “weak West”, including the EU.
The second event also does not directly concern the EU but it already has a
significant impact on the world. On 20th January, Donald J. Trump has
become a 45th president of the United States, vowing in his campaign for
improving relations with Russia. In January Russian public media (e.g.
Piervyj Kanal) conducted a strong pro-Trump campaign, denouncing
President Barack Obama and accusing him of deteriorating relations with
Russia. Anti-Americanism, so common and widespread in the last years and
enforced by the Russian propaganda machine, now has been calmed down as
Russia seeks to improve relations with the country under Mr. Trump’s lead.
It may impact the EU directly, as Anti-Americanism could be replaced with
Anti-Europeanism, especially in an event of a growing criticism of the EU
leaders towards Trump and their assurances of a strong position against
Russia because of its involvement in Ukraine. This may be especially the
case before upcoming elections in some European countries (like the
Netherlands and France or later Germany) which Russia might try to impact
in order to ensure an outcome favourable to lifting EU sanctions.
The same goal, at least a secondary one, may push Russia to a growing
engagement in the Middle East. After a success of Syrian truce (which
Astana talks are a second phase of), Russia feels emboldened to increase the
influence in the region. On 20th of January, it signed a long-term agreement
with Syria, strengthening military presence in Tartus and near Latakia.
Moreover, it has developed stronger relations with Khalifa Haftar, a Libyan
commander and a party of ongoing Libyan civil war. After the commander
was invited to Admiral Kuzniecov, Russian aircraft carrier deployed in the
Mediterranean Sea, and held a video call with Russian Defence Minister
Sergei Shoigu, Malta (current Presidency of the Council of the EU) warned
that it causes a direct threat to the EU as Russia aims to provoke another
migration flow to the continent. This could significantly impact already
mentioned upcoming elections.
China and East Asia In the meanwhile, some developments in the Eastern Europe also are not in
favour of the EU. The new president of the Republic of Moldova, pro-
Russian in his geopolitical views Igor Dodon, during his first official visit to
Moscow, paid a number of controversial promises, including the recognition
of Transnistrian (a Moldovan breakaway territory) gas debt by the Republic
of Moldova or future withdrawal from the Association Agreement signed in
2014. Although these promises are legally non-binding as the president does
not possess such prerogatives, they demonstrate that Igor Dodon will be a
strong voice in pushing Russian agenda in Moldovan politics. The active
pro-Russian president does not discourage the EU’s engagement in
Moldova. The EU approved €100 million of Macro-Financial Assistance to
be paid to Moldova in 2017 and 2018 (up to €40 million of grants and up to
€60 million in medium-term loans at favourable financing conditions) a
couple of days before Dodon’s visit to Russia.
The last days of January brought also a deterioration of the situation in
Eastern Ukraine with regular fights in the area of Avdiyivka in the north of
Donetsk with at numerous Ukrainian soldiers killed and dozens wounded.
On a different note, the president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko signed
a decree introducing the visa-free stay up to five days for citizens of 80
states, including the EU. The decree is applied only to visitors incoming to
the Minsk airport and is a demonstration of the country’s increasing
openness on tourists, but even most importantly on business visitors. This
decision has already caused some tensions in Russia – Belarus relations
which is a surprising development considering very close ties of both
countries. Russia's decision to restore control on the border with Belarus is a
clear sign of a disagreement with an open policy of its neighbour and
demonstrates Russian fear to lose control over another Eastern European
country.
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Federico
Salvati
Turkey and
Caucasus
2017 started badly for Turkey. During the New Year's Eve, the country
suffered a terrorist attack on the Reina night club in Beşiktaş, Istanbul.
Under the fire of a gunman, thirty-nine people were killed, including the
police officer on duty at the club entrance. At least 70 others were injured.
Turkish authorities identified the Uzbek Abdulkadir Masharipov (AKA Abu
Muhammed Horasani) as the only perpetrator. Masharipov was arrested on
16 January in Istanbul. As a consequence, on January 2nd, the Government
decided to extend the state of emergency for three months. It is important to
notice that this entailed the suspension of the European Convention on
Human Rights. The situation brought heavy consequences on the democratic
national context. President Erdoğan is still carrying on his crackdown on the
opposition, the military and the judiciary in a process that recalls 90s Putin
rise to power. Prime Minister Binali Yıldırım has recently called for a speed
up in the prosecution of the alleged responsible for the coup.
In connection with the troublesome situation of the country, the government
continues pushing its constitutional reform proposal. The reform assigns
great decisional and nominal powers to the president with a considerable
lack of checks and balances. The reform still needs to be approved by a
popular referendum to enter into force but if it would be the case, this could
mean a definite U-turn of Turkey on the democratisation process.
In foreign policy, disappointingly, Cyprus talks did not result in any solid
agreement. On a positive note, the talks have unleashed genuine hope among
the population and despite problems, it has been clearly stated that the talks
were not a failure despite that the parties have still uncompromising attitudes
on certain aspects of the negotiations. In the meanwhile, the trilateral
agreement with Russia and Iran over Syria remains a high priority. In the
24h of January, the three powers agreed to a ceasefire, although without the
consent of neither the Syrian government or the rebels.
The latest events in Turkey are of a great concern for Europe. In fact, all
things standing, EU strategic dependence of the country is still high but
Ankara's progressive assertiveness makes it difficult to cultivate the EU
foreign policy postulate of “creating a ring of friendly countries” in the
EU neighbourhood. It seems that earlier Turkish political elites have been
trying to support their power eroding strategies against the military class, by
fishing legitimacy from the European institutions. Now, the sudden U-turn
in the democratisation process might demonstrate a shift in this strategy.
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China and East Asia At the same time, in Azerbaijan, the crackdown of the government on the
civil society continues. On January 16th Rakhim Veliev, an activist of
the "Nida" youth movement, was detained and a few days later he
complained about torture and abuses perpetrated by the police. The reasons
for his arrest remain unclear at the moment. On January 20th Belarus agreed
to extradite to Azerbaijan Alexander Lapshin, an Israeli/Russian political
blogger. Lapshin has been accused of violating the no-entry policy to
the Karabakh territory. Meanwhile, a special rapporteur of the Parliamentary
Assembly of Council of Europe (PACE) urged the Azerbaijani government
to reform the judiciary since it appears weak and lacking independence. On
the contact line with the Nagorno-Karabakh, the skirmishes continue with
reciprocal accusations of the cease-fire violations.
In Armenia, the national ombudsman defined the Lapshin case as “a
violation of human freedom of speech”. The country, however, has its own
troubles to reckon with, concerning the same topic. On January
16 Gevorg Safaryan, an Armenian activist and a member of the "Constituent
Parliament", was sentenced to two years in jail. Another human rights
activist, Arthur Sakunts, defined the sentence as “political”.
During this month the UNHCR took the chance to express its concerns for
the 2300 Armenian Internally Displaced Persons (IPDs) from Azerbaijan
who are still stateless. The most notable question, though, has been the
preparation for the Karabakh referendum on the new constitution that
attempts to introduce a presidential system in the entity. In January, Central
Electoral Committee registered 101,207 individuals eligible to vote.
Finally, Georgia, on January 17, strengthened its relations with China
signing a memorandum of understanding on the One Belt One Road project,
while on January 17 a meeting between Foreign Minister,
Mikheil Janelidze and Erdoğan brought considerable results for the country.
In addition, a new agreement between Tbilisi and Moscow has been signed
concerning the Gazprom natural gas transit to Armenia. The contract has
come under fire by both political commentators and civil society. In
domestic politics, the internal conflict of United National Movement
resulted in a spilt of the party on January 12. The government still can not
find a satisfying solution to the reform of the judiciary.
It is almost frustrating for Europe to see Armenia and Azerbaijan pitted
against each other in a run-down on security and human rights. The
Azerbaijani case is particularly painstaking, especially, after Brussels 2012-
2013 high hopes on the democratisation of this country. Georgia instead
remains the success-story the EU in the Caucasus and the stronger
cooperation with China in Turkey do nothing but to consolidate the strategic
role of the nation in the region.
Jakub
Zientala
United States
of America
There were many fears and growing uncertainty, about what to expect from
the 45th President of the United States, Mr. Donald J. Trump. Numerous
foreign policy experts were disturbed by the incoherent and unclear
statements, made by Mr. Trump during his election campaign. Many of his
claims did not have any support in facts and seemed to be either based on
feelings or made up in a surge of the emotional rush. Therefore, January
2017 in the USA has been eclipsed by the transition of power and
inauguration of the new president.
First two weeks of his presidency can be summed up as the biggest reverse
in American foreign policy in seventy years. President Trump in his first
twelve days in office issued eighteen federal executive orders, starting with
day one just after being sworn in. Among those signed, the most notable
orders concern: building a wall on the border with Mexico, removing the
Affordable Medicare Aid (commonly known as Obamacare) and banning
refugees and travellers from a number of Muslim-dominated countries.
Before being sworn in on January the 8th Mr. Trump’s transition team asked
all political ambassadors nominated by President Obama to vacate their post
before January 21st leaving them little time to finish their official business.
This situation creates also very risky opening for national security for the
USA and creates a rift in the international policy of the USA. This kind of
situation is not unheard-of, however, typically it takes few weeks to few
months for ambassadors and other consular staff to be replaced by their
respective successors.
Cowboy style diplomacy of Mr. Trump and his impulsive internal policy
caused serious concerns among many US foreign partners as well as their
close allies. Many European heads of governments raised strong opinions
against Mr. Trump and stated that Europe must seek its own path,
independent from the USA, while others named Mr. Trump incompetent.
This can be summarised by the letter of the President of the European
Council, Mr. Tusk in which he named POTUS in office the biggest
existential threat to the Europeans. This situation may push European leaders
to cooperate closer with China on such matters as international trade and the
environmental protection.
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China and East Asia It still remains an important question whether the current policy of the
new American administration will continue. If so, it may drift the EU and
the USA apart. Mr. Trump expressed his negative opinion on the European
Union numerous times. Moreover, there are already visible potential seeds
of a conflict that can result in a clash between the partners. First one is a
matter of the international trade and the fact that Mr. Trump does
not favour international trade deals. Both TTP and TTIP have been
scrapped. The second is a matter of human rights, as Mr. Trump many
times voiced his favourable opinion on the subject of the use of torture.
The third is an unclear relation between Mr. Trump and Russia. And
finally, the biggest seed of conflict between world’s two partners is Brexit.
A few days ago Westminster voted bill allowing Prime Minister May to
start negotiations towards leaving the common market and the EU as a
whole. Brexit, being a test of the unity of the European Union member
states, creates a serious tear in the relation between the EU and the USA
because Mr. Trump has already expressed his support for the UK leaving
the Union and assured that USA and UK in short time will achieve a
comprehensive trade deal.
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Aleksandra
Stankovic
Western Balkans
The month of January has been rich in significant developments in the
relations between the EU and Western Balkan region. Primarily, the opening
of Chapter 26 (on education and culture) in Serbia’s EU accession talks has
been confirmed. The opening of the chapter represents for the Republic of
Serbia one-step forward on its way to the EU, followed by negotiations on
opening chapters 20 and 29 in the close future. Meanwhile, in Montenegro, a
public opinion survey on Montenegro’s EU integration process and
accession has been carried out. The results have shown that around 60% of
those questioned share a positive and supportive attitude toward the EU
membership, which is very encouraging for further membership talks and for
the EU as well. It demonstrates that the union maintains its strong influence
and positive image in the Balkans.
On 9th January 2017, the Republika Srpska celebrated its national holiday
and the 25th anniversary of its existence. Since there are numerous long-
standing animosities between Federation of BiH and the Republika Srpska,
the holiday always produces some controversies in BiH, while for Republika
Srpska it represents the battle for liberty, sovereignty, freedom of worship,
Serbian culture and language. Problems persist as Sarajevo and Republika
Srpska are far from maintaining positive relations but, as Serbian president
Tomislav Nikolić once said, there is no successful Federation of BiH
without successful Republika Srpska and reverse.
As two countries of the same region, it is important that the Republic of
Serbia and the Federation of BiH preserve good relations. Therefore, a
meeting of these two delegations was held in the Palace of Serbia in
Belgrade. The main topics of the meeting included bilateral cooperation,
preservation of peace and stability in the region, development of economic
relations, educational cooperation and attempts to solve some long-standing
issues, primarily the definition of the inter-state border. The meeting was
considered satisfying by both sides and further discussions are expected.
Another dialogue has been started in Brussels, between the presidents and
the prime ministers of the Republic of Serbia and Kosovo. The European
Commission has facilitated the dialogue. Because of the recent incident
with the Serbian train, the relations between these two countries have been
even more tensed than usually and there was a concern that it may
degenerate into a full-scale conflict.
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Therefore, the main purpose of the meeting was the normalisation of
relationship between the Republic of Serbia and Kosovo. As a reminder,
the incident concerned a Serbian train decorated with cultural and
historical motives of Kosovo and Metohija and the description “Kosovo is
Serbia” translated in 21 different languages that was planned to be
deployed on the route Belgrade (Serbia) – Kosovska Mitrovica (Kosovo).
The train was stopped in Raška after the special units of Kosovo police,
ROSU, surrounded the railroad. The incident significantly shook the public
in both countries and the relationship between the Republic of Serbia and
Kosovo. Due to this matter, the European Commission organised an urgent
meeting with representatives of both parties. The concrete outcomes of the
dialogue will be known in the upcoming time.
For the EU, good relations with neighbouring states and in the region are
very important. They represent also one of the main conditions for the EU
membership. Therefore, the already mentioned dialogues are of a great
importance, because they represent the willingness of Balkan countries to
end the conflicts and forget about differences in order to join the EU. In his
recent interview during the Belgrade Security Forum, Antonio Missiroli, the
Director of the EU Institute for Security Studies has mentioned that the
cooperation between the EU and Western Balkans is necessary because all
the main challenges the EU is confronted with today are important for
Balkans and cannot be solved without Balkans.
On the other hand, the EU is not the only power being strongly engaged in
the region. For example, the Republic of Serbia is not only maintaining a
close relationship with the EU and countries of the region but also with
Russia. In this new 2017 year, the Republic of Serbia has decided to
strengthen its military force and has signed an agreement with Russia to take
over its six MIG-29 fighter jets. The fighter jets will be decommissioned by
the Russian air force and the Republic of Serbia will only have to pay for
their modernisation. This deal demonstrates the interest of the Republic of
Serbia in increasing its security and military power, but also a close relation
between two countries and Russia’s growing influence in the Balkans.
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