EUEU

EnlargementEnlargement

FYR

Enlargement: from 6 to 27Enlargement: from 6 to 27

1973: United Kingdom, Ireland, Denmark

1981-86: Greece, Spain, Portugal 1995: Sweden, Austria, Finland 2004: “big bang”– eight countries in

Central and Eastern Europe plus Malta and Cyprus

2007: Bulgaria and Romania

Copenhagen criteriaCopenhagen criteria

““Membership requires that the candidate country Membership requires that the candidate country has achieved stability of institutions has achieved stability of institutions guaranteeing . . .”guaranteeing . . .”

• 1) the 1) the rule of law, human rightsrule of law, human rights and respect for, and respect for, and protection of minoritiesand protection of minorities

• 2) 2) democracydemocracy• 3) the existence of a functioning 3) the existence of a functioning market market

economyeconomy

Why do CEEC countries want EU membership? Why do CEEC countries want EU membership? • Geopolitics: Geopolitics: security, Russia, global weightsecurity, Russia, global weight• EconomicsEconomics: aid, market access, European : aid, market access, European

capitalismcapitalism• Politics: Politics: consolidate democracyconsolidate democracy

Why do 15 EU members support enlargement?Why do 15 EU members support enlargement?•Geopolitics: stable borders•Economics: cheaper labor, consumers, growth •Politics: Moral obligation to stitch Europe back together

Regional disparities in the

enlarged EU

COHESION POLICYCOHESION POLICY

Goal: reduce disparities among regions in the EU.Goal: reduce disparities among regions in the EU.About 1/3 of EU spendingAbout 1/3 of EU spending2000-2006 = 213 billion Euros 2000-2006 = 213 billion Euros 2007-2013 = 330 billion Euros2007-2013 = 330 billion Euros0.4% of total EU GDP0.4% of total EU GDPUp to 10 % total public spending in new membersUp to 10 % total public spending in new members

Corruption ratings from Transparency International, 2008

• Denmark (1)• Sweden (1) • Finland (5)• Netherlands (7)• Canada (9)• Luxembourg (11)• Austria (12)• Germany (14)• Ireland, UK (16) • Belgium, USA (18)• France (23) • Slovenia (26) • Estonia (27)• Spain (28) • Cyprus (31)• Portugal (32)

• Malta (36)• Czech Rep (45) • Hungary (47) • Slovakia, Latvia (52)• Italy (55)• Greece (57)• Lithuania, Poland & Turkey (58)• Croatia (62)• Romania (70)• Bulgaria, Mexico, Macedonia

(72)• Montenegro, and Serbia (85)• Bosnia (92)

Corruption

Minority rights• Not in EU treaties, mainly Council of Europe (Commissioner of

Human Rights)• Copenhagen criteria• Commission annual monitoring reports during accession• EU agency for fundamental rights• Private associations, e.g. EUmap.org [Soros]• Problems:

– Russian minorities in Baltic states– Roma (esp. Central- and Eastern Europe)– Muslims (esp. Western Europe)

EU wide survey, EU-Midis, May 2009

(www.fra.europa.eu)23,500 persons from selected immigrant and

ethnic minority groups in all 27 Member States of the European Union.

Eurobarometer 85 November 2005

Beyond enlargement: European Beyond enlargement: European Neighborhood policyNeighborhood policy

• Mediterranean: Israel, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Palestinian Mediterranean: Israel, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Palestinian Authority, Egypt, Algeria, Libya, Tunisia, MoroccoAuthority, Egypt, Algeria, Libya, Tunisia, Morocco

• Caucasia: Azerbeidjan, Armenia, Belarus, Ukraine, Caucasia: Azerbeidjan, Armenia, Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, GeorgiaMoldova, Georgia

• Budget for 2007-12: 12 billion EurosBudget for 2007-12: 12 billion Euros

Next enlargement candidatesNext enlargement candidates• Turkey, Croatia, MacedoniaTurkey, Croatia, Macedonia• Rest of Balkans: Serbia, Montenegro, Kosovo, AlbaniaRest of Balkans: Serbia, Montenegro, Kosovo, Albania

EU: top-down approach• Skeptical on capacity to

create democracy, certainly not by the sword

• Focus on state building and consolidation

• Focus on rule of law, good governance

Work with judges, police forces, bureaucrats, political leaders

• Optimistic about capacity to create democracy, if necessary by the sword

• Focus on society building and promotion

• Focus on elections, civil society

Work with civil society groups, election monitoring, parties

US: bottom-up approach

What works for regime change?What works for regime change?• Short-term: material incentives targeted at governments: Short-term: material incentives targeted at governments:

Conditional EU membershipConditional EU membership• clear criteria (Copenhagen criteria) and procedure (Commission clear criteria (Copenhagen criteria) and procedure (Commission

annual country reports, implementation and periodic monitoring annual country reports, implementation and periodic monitoring reports)reports)

• multilateralismmultilateralism• bond markets reward ‘good policy’ by lending at lower interest bond markets reward ‘good policy’ by lending at lower interest

ratesrates

• Essential: domestic political competitionEssential: domestic political competition

• Long-term: socialization + learningLong-term: socialization + learning