“EU CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY: IMPLICATIONS FOR IRELAND” CPD Series 30 09 08... · overview •...
Transcript of “EU CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY: IMPLICATIONS FOR IRELAND” CPD Series 30 09 08... · overview •...
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“EU CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY:IMPLICATIONS FOR IRELAND”
29 SEPTEMBER 2008
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OVERVIEW
• BACKGROUND
• JANUARY ‘07 ENERGY & CLIMATE CHANGE PACKAGE
• KEY UNCERTAINTIES
• IMPLICATIONS FOR IRELAND TO 2020
• IIEA REPORT
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EU POLICY IS TO:“prevent dangerous anthropogenic
interference with the climate system….”1992)
UNFCCC, 1992
“…limiting global mean temperaturerise to + 2° Celsius on pre-industrial levels”.
EU, 1996
BY
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SCIENTIFIC CONSENSUS IS THAT:
Stab level(ppm CO2-eq)
Global Mean temp.increase
at equilibrium (ºC)
Year CO2 needs topeak
Year CO2emissions
back at 2000level
Reduction in 2050 CO2emissions compared
to 2000
445 – 490 2.0 – 2.4 2000 - 2015 2000- 2030 -85 to -50
490 – 535 2.4 – 2.8 2000 - 2020 2000- 2040 -60 to -30
535 – 590 2.8 – 3.2 2010 - 2030 2020- 2060 -30 to +5
590 – 710 3.2 – 4.0 2020 - 2060 2050- 2100 +10 to +60
2006 = 433 PPM CO2-eq!!AND
+2.5 PPM PER ANNUM!!
CAN THE EU POSSIBLY ACHIEVE ITS TARGET?
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PERFORMANCE• 1997 KYOTO: -8% BY 2012
• THE EUROPEAN CLIMATE CHANGE
PROGRAMME:
– MAIN ACHIEVEMENT IS EU ETS
– ENERGY PERFORMANCE OF
BUILDINGS
– EFFICIENCY OF ELECTRIC GOODS
– PROMOTION OF CHP & BIOFUELS
EU/US Emissions Tre
4500
5000
5500
6000
6500
7000
7500
1990 1995 2000 2006
year
US
EU27
“THE EU IS ON TRACK TO MEET ITS KYOTO COMMITMENTS”EEA, 2008
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OVERVIEW
• BACKGROUND
• JANUARY 2007 ENERGY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
PACKAGE
• KEY UNCERTAINTIES
• IMPLICATIONS FOR IRELAND TO 2020
• CONCLUSIONS
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AN ENERGY POLICY FOR EUROPEJANURARY ‘07
(2º TARGET)
RENEWABLESCONSUMED
=20%BY
2020
GHG
20-30%On 1990
EUETS
REFORM
2020 2020 2012
cut
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�Target(2005)
GDP %EU Av.
P/C GhgTonnes
EU -10 100 10.5
Ire -20 139 17
De -20 122 11.4
UK -16 117 10.9
Ger -14 110 12.1
Pol +14 50 10.5
Bul +20 33 9
“DOMESTIC SECTOR”:SELECTED EMISSIONSTARGETS
“DOMESTIC SECTOR” = 59% OF EU EMISSIONS (INC. AGRICULTURE, TRANSPORT,WASTE, LIGHT INDUSTRY, CONSTRUCTION AND SERVICES)
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EU ETS SECTOR
• = 41% OF EU EMISSIONS
• EU TO SET CAPS AND DISTRIBUTE
PERMITS
• AUCTIONED PERMITS PROGRESSIVLY
INTRODUCED
• INCLUSION OF OTHER GASSSES (PFC)
AND SECTORS (AVIATION)
EU ETS SECTOR EMISSIONS
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
Year
Series1
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RENEWABLES
• 20% TARGET SHARED FROM
49% (SW) to 10% (ML)
• FLEXIBILITY: TRADE IN
GAURANTEE OF ORIGIN
• INTERIM TARGETS (25% BY
2012)
• BIOFUELS: 10% TRANSPORT
FUELS CONSUMED 2020?? EU RENEWABLES: 8.5% IN 2008
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OVERVIEW
• BACKGROUND• JANUARY 2007 ENERGY AND CLIMATE
CHANGE PACKAGE• KEY UNCERTAINTIES• IMPLICATIONS FOR IRELAND TO 2020• IIEA REPORT
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KEY UNCERTAINTIES
• FLEXIBILITY
• CARBON SINKS
• EU ETS
• BIOFUELS
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OVERVIEW• BACKGROUND• JANUARY 2007 ENERGY AND CLIMATE
CHANGE PACKAGE• KEY UNCERTAINTIES• IMPLICATIONS FOR IRELAND TO 2020• IIEA REPORT
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NON-ETS SECTORS POST-2012
• GOVERNMENTIS DIRECTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR EMISSIONS FROM:- AGRICULTURE;- TRANSPORT;- BUILT ENVIRONMENT;- NON-ENERGY INTENSIVE INDUSTRY;- COMMERCIAL AND SERVICES.
• EACH SECTOR WILL REQUIRE A COST OPTAMISED TARGET AND DELIVERYPLAN
• SECTORAL DEROGATIONS WILL INCREASE BURDEN FOR OTHER SECTORS
• INCREASING RENEWABLES USE IN THESE SECTORS WILL BOTH– ASSIST IN DELIVERY OR 2020 TARGET FOR RENEWABLES, AND– HELP REACH EMISSIONS REDUCTION TARGE
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DISTANCE TO TARGET
• ON -20% TARGET FOR 2020:
– BETWEEN 2.3 AND 17 MILLION TONNES(EPA 2008) DEPENDING ONASSUMPTIONS
– UPPER FIGURE GREATER THAN ALLTRANSPORT EMISSIONS 2005!
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Domestic Agriculture Commercial Transport Purchases Shortfall
Mt C
O2e
20202020-30%
NATIONAL POTENTIAL: IIEA EXPERTANALYSIS (-30%)
47.4 Mt33.2 Mt
?
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ETS Sector Post-2012• EU-ORCHESTRATION:
• TARGET SETTING NOW TOP-DOWN: UNIFORMITY ACROSS EU
• AUCTIONING:
• POWERGEN 100% BY 2013• CEMENT/ALUMINIUM SECTORS INCREMENTAL EXPOSURE• AVIATION ALSO• RULES NOT YET DETERMINED
• ETS ABATEMENT MEASURES BENEFIT EU AS A WHOLE, NOT MEMBER STATE
• ADDITIONAL ETS RENEWABLES WILL REDUCE PERMIT PRICE, NOTEMISSIONS!!
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OVERVIEW• BACKGROUND• JANUARY 2007 ENERGY AND CLIMATE
CHANGE PACKAGE• KEY UNCERTAINTIES• IMPLICATIONS FOR IRELAND TO 2020• IIEA REPORT
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IIEA REPORT
• AGREEMENT EXPECTED BY MARCH 2009: NO RENEGOTIATION FORIRELAND: -30% IS LIKELY OUTCOME
• CURRENT MITIGATION POLICY NOT AMBITIOUS ENOUGH
• SERIOUS DANGERS (FINES/ECONOMY DEPENDANT ON SCARCEFOSSIL FELS) FOR IRISH ECONOMY IF URGENT ACTION NOT TAKEN
• LONG TERM PERSPECTIVE NEEDED• 60-80% EMISSIONS REDUCTION BY 2050• CARBON TAX• RETROFIT SCHEMES/DESIGN STANDARDS• ELECTRIC VEHICLES• AFFORESTATION• ROAD PRICING• NEW NATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE STRATEGY: INTERSECTORAL EQUITY• PUBLIC SERVICE REFORM
• REVENUE FROM CARBON TAX/AUCTIONED PERMITS
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