EU-CHINA FOREIGN RELATIONS: TRUE LOVE ......China’s imports from the EU US$21.25 billion in 1995...

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EU-CHINA FOREIGN RELATIONS: TRUE LOVE, SHOTGUN MARRIAGE, OR REBOUND RELATIONSHIP? Dr. Lukas K. Danner Florida International University Steven J. Green School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA) Miami-Florida Jean Monnet Center of Excellence

Transcript of EU-CHINA FOREIGN RELATIONS: TRUE LOVE ......China’s imports from the EU US$21.25 billion in 1995...

Page 1: EU-CHINA FOREIGN RELATIONS: TRUE LOVE ......China’s imports from the EU US$21.25 billion in 1995 US$90.32 billion in 2006 EC: “EU-China: closer partners, growing responsibilities”

EU-CHINA FOREIGN RELATIONS: TRUE LOVE, SHOTGUN MARRIAGE,

OR REBOUND RELATIONSHIP?

Dr. Lukas K. Danner

Florida International University

Steven J. Green School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA)

Miami-Florida Jean Monnet Center of Excellence

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OVERVIEW

History of EU-China Relations

Trade Relations

Diplomatic Relations

Changed International Environment (2017-)

EU & Chinese Positions/Strategies

Conclusion & Outlook

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HISTORICAL MILESTONES

1975: Official relations established (EEC) (+ 1983: ECSC, Euratom)

1978: Bilateral trade agreement

1985: Trade and cooperation agreement

1994: Bilateral trade risen from $2.4 b. (1980) to $33.9 b. (1994)

Establishment of political dialogues

1995: EU: “Building a Comprehensive Partnership with China”

Some sectoral dialogues established

1998: Creation of the summit meeting system 5

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2003: Launch of a comprehensive strategic partnership to tackle global challenges Bilateral trade risen from $33.9 b. to $100 b.

China takes number two spot after the U.S. to overtake Switzerland

EU: “A maturing partnership - shared interests and challenges in EU-China relations”

PRC: China’s EU policy paper

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2006: The EU’s rising trade deficit: China’s exports to the EU US$19.09 billion in 1995 US$181.98 billion in 2006

China’s imports from the EU US$21.25 billion in 1995 US$90.32 billion in 2006

EC: “EU-China: closer partners, growing responsibilities” / “A policy paper on EU-China trade and investment: Competition and Partnership”

2008/2010: China emerged as a financial saviour in Global Recession/ Eurozone Crisis

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2013: Decision to launch negotiations on a comprehensive investment agreement

EU-China 2020 Strategic Agenda for Cooperation

2014: “China's Policy Paper on the EU: Deepen the China-EU Comprehensive Strategic Partnership for Mutual Benefit and Win-win Cooperation”

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2016: Elements for a new EU strategy on China (EC HRFASP): “Seize new opening to strengthen its relations with China

Engage China in its reform process … [to] result in mutual benefits …

Promote reciprocity, a level playing field and fair competition …

… negotiation on a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment …

[BRI w/ conditionality]

… UN and G20 responsibilities …

[HR]

Maximize EU cohesion and effectiveness in its dealings with China”

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TRADE RELATIONS: EU SIDE (2017)

Source: European Commission

China is the EU’s second largest trading partner

after the US

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TRADE RELATIONS: PRC SIDE (2017)

Imports Exports

Source: WTO

The EU is China’s largest trading partner

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IMPORTS, EXPORTS, TRADE BALANCE PRC EU (GOODS; 2008-2017)

EU imports from China are dominated by industrial and consumer goods: machinery and equipment, footwear and clothing, furniture and lamps, and toys. | EU exports to China are mainly machinery and equipment, motor vehicles, aircraft, and chemicals.

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NEGOTIATIONS OF EU-PRC INVESTMENT AGREEMENT

1985: Trade and Cooperation Agreement

2007: Negotiations for a Partnership and Cooperation Agreement were launched during 10th EU-China Summit (without result)

2013: Launch of negotiations for Investment Agreement to include liberalizations of investment and restriction removal for investors in both markets

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SUMMITS AND DIALOGUES

Annual EU-China Summit (Presidential level)

Annual EU-China High Level Economic and Trade Dialogue (EU VP+EU Comm.; PRC VPM+PRC Min.)

Annual Joint Committee on Trade (Ministerial level)

Annual Trade and Investment Policy Dialogue (Dir.-Gen. level)

Annual Economic and Trade Working Group (Exp-to-exp disc)

Biannual People-to-people dialogue

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Trump’s challenge to status quo of the multilateral global order

PRC-side

Stirring up the Korean peninsula (2017)

Climate change

Questioning One-China-Policy

Nuclear non-proliferation (Iran)

Alu/steel tariffs & further tariffs vs. PRC (July)

Trade surplus/currency manipulation/Chinese int’l students in U.S. rhetoric

EU-side NATO

Climate change

Un-supporting European

integration (Brexit)

G7 (Canada)

Nuclear non-proliferation (Iran)

Alu/steel tariffs

NEW PHASE? CHANGED INT’L ENVIRONMENT

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EU STRATEGY/BEHAVIOR TOWARDS PRC Cooperation in trade, investment & foreign aid

AIIB ( U.S.)

BRI/OBOR ( U.S.)

Preserving the multilateral global order ( U.S.)

Mutual investment treaty negotiations

Climate change ( U.S.)

Nuclear non-proliferation ( U.S.)

Alternative partner to the U.S. / attention-seeking behavior ( U.S.)

Behavior driven by EU’s liberal economic & European values/norms interests & the preserving of the multilateral global order

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PRC STRATEGY/BEHAVIOR TOWARDS EU Balance of power / breaking of U.S. alliances / divide and rule

•e.g., 2016: Working together w/ Hungary & Greece to prevent an EU condemnation of China’s non-acceptance of tribunal ruling regarding the South China Sea

Trade, investment & foreign aid AIIB & BRI/OBOR

Investment in European companies & Loans to Europeans (2009/2010-)

Mutual investment treaty negotiations

“Side-door approach” (IS, NO, SUI)

Climate change & Nuclear non-proliferation

Filling the U.S.’s void in global leadership / status-seeking

Behavior driven by PRC’s liberal economic/world trade interests, balance of power calculations and search for status

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SUMMARY

EU-China relations have moved to a new phase of closer cooperation

Common basis of cooperation: Economic interdependence & trade interests (free trade, BRI/AIIB, …)

Shared understanding of maintaining the multilateral global order (free trade, …)

Climate change cooperation (Paris)

Nuclear non-proliferation (Iran)

Different motivations

Sustainability of the partnership will also depend on whether Trump gets re-elected and the post-Trump United States

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True Love

Shotgun

Marriage

Rebound

Relationship

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THANK YOU


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