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Transcript of Ethnic Minorities’ voting behaviour, political engagement and national identity Anthony Heath...
Ethnic Minorities’ voting behaviour, political engagement and national identity
Anthony HeathUniversities of Manchester and
Oxford
Aims of the talk
• To share new findings from the Ethnic Minority British Election Survey (EMBES)
• To report on the political integration of the main minorities – people of Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi, Black African and Caribbean heritage
• To explore differences between 1st and 2nd generations
• To explore implications for question ‘Has multiculturalism failed?’
Some theoretical issues – exclusion or choice ?
• A great deal of evidence that minorities are discriminated against in the labour market. Does economic discrimination lead to political alienation of minorities?
• Is there a parallel exclusion of minorities from the political process – eg in terms of MPs or representation of minority interests?
• Do minorities choose not to participate, eg because less committed to democracy and/or British society?
• Or are minorities as committed to democratic norms and values as the majority?
Generational differences
• My work on the labour market has focussed on the second generation – key test of whether minorities are able to compete on a level playing field
• Similar concerns may be relevant in politics – first generation may lack English skills, may lack knowledge of British politics, were not socialized into British democratic values
EMBES
• Nationally-representative probability sample of main established ethnic minorities
• Over-sample in areas of high ethnic minority density
• Harmonized with main British Election Survey (which we use to examine attitudes and behaviour of the White British majority group)
• Very good response rate (60%) but always risk that most alienated will not participate in the survey
Sample characteristics EMBES BES
White British 0 3126Other white 0 57Mixed 113 32Indian 587 52Pakistani 668 17Bangladeshi 270 8Black Caribbean 598 31Black African 525 38Other 26 59
The concept of ethnicity
• Official categories will not reflect actual ethnic identities – major ethnic differences within all these five groups (eg Punjabis, Baluchis, Azad Kashmiris among the people from Pakistan)
• Also important differences between religious groups – especially Sikh, Hindu, Muslim, Christian differences among Indians
• More detailed analysis needed
Topics to be covered
• Registration• Turnout• Party choice• Satisfaction with British democracy• Feelings of unfair treatment• Ethnic and British identity
Registration
• All British citizens, and Commonwealth citizens but not EU citizens, are eligible to vote in general elections
• But some who eligible still may not register – not interested in British politics, undocumented, don’t know they are eligible, worried about authorities
Registration 1ST GEN 2ND GEN
White British - 97Indian 90 97Pakistani 91 96Bangladeshi 95 92Black Caribbean 95 92Black African 79 85
Reasons for not being registered
• 1st generation respondents told us that major factor in lack of registration was ineligibility (esp the Black Africans) but also lack of knowledge about how to register
• NB less than half the 1st generation said that they spoke English very well compared with 90% of 2nd generation
• Among 2nd generation Black Caribbeans lack of interest was often mentioned
Turnout
• Might expect that people who have actually registered would turn out to vote
• But we know that, among White British, many do not vote due to lack of interest, feeling that none of the parties really represents them, lack of sense of civic duty.
• Expect turnout to be lower among first generation, especially those coming from non-democratic countries
Self-reported turnout among registered voters
1st gen 2nd gen
White British - 79Indian 73 81Pakistani 76 73Bangladeshi 81 77Black Caribbean 71 69Black African 62 62
Reasons for not voting
• Little sign of any generational difference, but a clear tendency for the Black groups to have lower turnout.
• Can only partly be explained by standard resource theories.
• Around 50% of 2nd generation Black African and Black Caribbean respondents felt that no party really represented their views
Vote in 2010
Lab Cons LD Other
White British 29 40 25 7Indian 61 25 13 1Pakistani 59 11 25 5Bangladeshi 71 17 9 3Black Caribbean 78 9 11 1Black African 85 6 7 2
Continuities with previous research• Continuation of previous pattern for minorities to
show much greater level of support for Labour, though minorities swung away from Labour much as the majority did
• But also some big differences between minorities• Indians are the ones most likely to support
Conservatives, and middle-class Indians have even higher Conservative vote
• Note that ethnicity does not ‘trump’ class – though ethnicity is a much stronger basis of vote than class is today
% voting Labour
1st gen 2nd gen
White British - 29Indian 60 60Pakistani 64 56Bangladeshi 73 65Black Caribbean 87 71Black African 87 76
Possible implications
• Interesting pattern for Labour support to decline across the generations – disillusionment or gradual convergence towards the majority pattern?
• Labour should not assume that it can take minority support for granted
• Also note that minorities now provide a larger share of the Labour vote than they have ever done before
Mixed picture so far
• Generally minorities seem to be politically integrated – registering to vote, turning out, and supporting mainstream parties
• Differences between minorities are relatively small, though Black groups seem somewhat less integrated
• 2nd generation Black Caribbeans particularly disillusioned – perhaps with good cause
% very or fairly satisfied with way democracy works in Britain
1st gen 2nd gen
White British - 52Indian 78 59Pakistani 80 60Bangladeshi 82 57Black Caribbean 56 41Black African 75 56
Immigrant optimism?
• 1st generation enthusiastic about British democracy
• Declining satisfaction in the 2nd generation – though higher satisfaction than the majority group
• Black Caribbeans stand out though as less satisfied
Ethnic or British identity?
“some people think of themselves first as British. Others think of themselves first as Scottish. Which best describes how you think of yourself?
Scottish not BritishMore Scottish than BritishEqually Scottish and BritishMore British than ScottishBritish not Scottish
% feeling more Scottish/Black/Asian than British
1st gen 2nd gen
Scottish residents - 60Indian 35 14Pakistani 28 14Bangladeshi 34 19Black Caribbean 44 33Black African 53 41
Discrimination and exclusion
• Previous research has suggested that experience of discrimination undermines a sense of belonging to Britain
• My report for Lord Goldsmith’s review of citizenship emphasized that there was no crisis of British identity among minorities in general, but that young Black Caribbeans felt alienated because of discrimination
% agreeing government treats people like me/my ethnic group fairly
1st gen 2nd gen
White British 33 Indian 70 59Pakistani 69 50Bangladeshi 67 57Black Caribbean 33 24Black African 48 31
Has multiculturalism failed?• Possibly – though not for the reasons Angela Merkel
thinks• First generation show ‘immigrant optimism’ and
positive orientations despite lack of fluency in English• Second generation show convergence to majority
patterns – less positive though also feeling more ‘British’ and much better at English.
• But Blacks, especially Black Caribbeans, show signs of disaffection – almost certainly arising from feelings of unfair treatment
• Feelings of unfairness greater in the 2nd generation – perhaps because of changed frame of reference
Exclusion or choice?
• The key issue then does not seem to be that minorities don’t want to be involved in British democracy
• The key issue is that Black Caribbeans do not feel that they are fairly treated – with risks of alienation and disaffection
• Unequal treatment is the problem not unequal willingness to integrate politically