ETHNIC DIFFERENCES IN FERTILITY TRANSITION IN TURKEY

Political Demography: Ethnic, National and Religious Dimensions

Session I : Differential Fertility I (LSD: Room S50 )September 29, 2006

Sutay Yavuz Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock/Germany

(PhD Candidate) yavuz@demogr.mpg.de

ETHNIC DIFFERENCES IN FERTILITY TRANSITION IN TURKEY

1. Introduction: Fertility Transition

2. Brief information on Ethnic Composition

3. Differential Fertility Behavior of Ethnic Groups: Period Fertility Measures and Childbearing

Behavior

4.The threshold in Fertility Transition: Determinants of the Third Births by Ethnicity

5. Conclusion

Introduction: Fertility Transition

The natural fertility: the reproductive behavior characterized by the absence of deliberate birth control.

The modern family limitation: fertility behavior turns into a matter of the calculus choice.

Natural FertilityModern Fertility

Behavior

Fertility Transition: natural fertility behavior shifts to modern family limitation (parity-specific birth limitation )

MODERNIZATION (?)

Mortality decline

Socio-economic development

Innovation & Diffusion

Institutional change

Early StageEarly Stage:

Increasing age at marriage

Celibacy

Traditional contraceptive methods:

Withdrawal

Late StageLate Stage:

Modern contraceptive methods

Postponement and limiting of births

Fertility Transition in Turkey - I

TOTAL FERTILITY RATE (TFR) 1920 - 2003, Turkey

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Total Fertility Rate 5.6 6.6 7.1 6.7 6.6 6.9 6.5 6.3 6.1 5.7 5.1 4.3 4.0 3.1 2.7 2.6 2.2

1920 - 25

1925 - 30

1930 - 35

1935 - 40

1940 - 45

1945 - 50

1950 - 55

1955 - 60

1960 - 65

1965 - 70

1970 - 75

1975 - 80

1980 - 85

1985 - 88

1988 - 93

1993 - 98

1998 - 03

I. II. III.

TF

R (C

hild

ren

per w

omen

)

2.1

Total Fertility Rate: The average number of children that would be born alive to a woman (or group of women) during her lifetime if she were to pass through her childbearing years conforming to the age-specific fertility rates of a given year.

Replacement level fertility: 2.1 children per woman's life time. 2 children to replace the parents, with one-tenth of a child extra to make up for the mortality of children

Brief information on Ethnic Composition : Percent Distribution

  Ethnic Group 19351 19652 19903 19924 19935 19986 20037

Turks 89.2 90.1 - 85.8 82.7 83.2 83.0

Kurds 9.2 9.9 12.6 12.4 13.0 14.4 14.0

Arabs 1.0 1.0 - 1.4 1.7 1.9 1.9

Other* 0.6 1.1 -  0.4 2.6 0.5 1.2

1 1935 Population Census

2 Mutlu, 1995 (1965 Population Census)

3 Mutlu, 1995 (projection)

4 Özsoy, Koç and Toros 1992 (projection) 5 (Koç et al.1999) TDHS-1993 (ever-married women)

6 (Koç et al.2000) TDHS-1998 (never- married and ever-married women)

7 (own estimation) TDHS-1993 (ever-married women)

* Other ethnic groups: Greeks, Circassians, Georgians, Armenians, Jew etc.

Percentage Distribution of Ethnic Groups in Turkey

Absolute Numbers (in thousand)

           

  1965 1993 1998 2003Percent per annum population increase 1965-2003

Turks 27 624 49 060 54 081 58 292   1.97    

Kurds 3 108 7 712 9 360 9 832   3.03  

Arabs 308 1 008 1 235 1 334   3.81  

Other1 345 1 542 325 843   2.35  

     

Turkey* 31 391 59 323 65 001 70 231   2.12    

http://www.tuik.gov.tr/VeriBilgi.do1 Other ethnic groups: Greeks, Circassians, Georgians, Armenians, Jew etc.

Inter-marriage among ethnic groups in Turkey

Mother Tongue of Wife 

Mother Tongue of Husband  

Turkish Kurdish Other1 (N)

Turkish 97.5 1.9 0.6 6123

Kurdish 4.9 94.1 1.0 1270

Other1 22.9 5.1 72.0 275Source: TDHS-2003 (own estimation)

1 Other ethnic groups: Arabs, Greeks, Circassians, Georgians, Armenians, Jews etc.

Differential Fertility Behavior of Ethnic Groups: Age Specific Fertility Rates

Age Specific Fertility Rate (2000-2003) By Mother Tongue (Turkey TFR is 2.2)

0

50

100

150

200

250

15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49

Age

AS

FR (

in 1

000

)

Turkish

Kurdish

: 1.89

: 4 02

TFR

Age Specific Fertility Rate (ASFR): The number of live births to women in a specified age group and period per 1,000 women in the same age group.

Fertility Differentials : Welfare Status and Ethnicity

TFR by Household Welfare Status, 2000-03, 2003 TDHS

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

POOREST POORER MIDDLE RICHER RICHEST

Welfare Index

To

tal F

erti

lity

Rat

e

KURDISH

TURKEY

TURKISH

: 4.02: 2.22: 1.89

TFR

2.1

Total Fertility Rate: The average number of children that would be born alive to a woman

Fertility Differentials: Education Level and Ethnicity

TFR by Education Level, 2000-03, 2003 TDHS

0

1

2

3

4

5

No educ./Prim. incomp First level primary Second level primary High school and higher

Education

Tota

l Fer

tilit

y R

ate

KURDISH

TURKEY

TURKISH

: 4.02: 2.22: 1.89

TFR

2.1

Total Fertility Rate: The average number of children that would be born alive to a woman

General Pattern of Childbearing Patterns by Ethnicity

TurkishKurdish

(don't know T.)Kurdish

(knows T.) Arab Other

M*- 1 92.5 90.3 91.9 89.7 89.4

1 – 2 72.9 95.3 92.4 89.7 78.1

2 – 3 45.3 96.0 79.3 79.5 42.5

3 – 4 42.5 95.7 76.5 75.9 29.4

4 – 5 39.5 91.2 75.5 70.2 25.3

5 – 6 42.9 89.7 72.4 72.8 -

6 – 7 40.7 83.7 72.7 76.3 -

7 – 8 42.6 84.7 60.4 76.9 -

8 – 9 54.6 79.0 62.3 56.7 -

9 – 10 44.8 85.8 55.7 70.0 -

M* refers to marriage (parity 0). Source: TDHS-2003 data file (own estimation)

Cumulative proportion of ever-married women who progress to next parity within five years of the previous birth, by

the mother tongue of women.

Threshold in Fertility Transition: Third Birth

The progression from second to third birth is as a critical component of the fertility transition. The third births were seen as a marker of a strong two-child family norm in modern societies

As two-child family norm is becoming more and more widespread, the third child mothers are forming a special group with different motivations and fertility ideals.

We use event-history approach for examining the determinants of the third births; (piecewise constant) proportional-hazard (or intensity-regression) models .

Data is originated from 2003 Turkey Demographic and Health Survey

How progression risks (intensities) are dependent on different

combinations of characteristics of the women?

Threshold in Fertility Transition: Third Birth

A relative risk of 1 for the level of a covariate indicates that the estimated third birth risk is the same as that of the reference group of the same covariate.

A relative risk estimated to be greater (smaller) than 1 indicates a higher (lower) third birth risk than for the reference category.

A woman’s third birth risk is defined as the probability that she will experience a third birth the next month, given her individual characteristics and given that she has not had such a birth by the beginning of the month.

Threshold in Fertility Transition: Third Birth

The progression to a third birth, as with any other type of life-course transition, does not occur at random or in isolation, but in relation to certain to structures in society.

Thus we cover certain areas of life that assumed to be related fertility behavior of women:

1. Childhood Socialization2. Socio-economic Characteristics3. First Marriage Specific Cultural Characteristics4. Past Fertility Experience5. Husband Charactersitics6. Context Variables

Transition to Third Birth: Determinants

Event history model - relative risks of the transition to third birth

  Turkish Speaker Kurdish Speaker

Woman's Mother was literate  

No 1.32*** 0.99

Yes 1 1

Woman's Mother: Total Children Ever Born  

≤ 7 1 1

7+ 1.32* 1.19

Woman's Father was literate  

No 1.15* 1.03

Yes 1 1

Childhood Place of Residence  

Urban 1 1

Rural 1.20*** 1.08

CHILDHOOD SOCIALIZATION

*** p ≤ 0.01 0.01 < ** p ≤ 0.05 0.05 < *p ≤0.1

Transition to Third Birth: Determinants

Event history model - relative risks of the transition to third birth

SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS

*** p ≤ 0.01 0.01 < ** p ≤ 0.05 0.05 < *p ≤0.1

  Turkish Speaker Kurdish Speaker

Education  

No Education/Primary Incomplete 1.43*** 1.12

Primary and higher 1 1

Literacy    

Not at all 1.43*** 1.24**

Reads 1 1

Working Status before Marriage1  

Not worked 1.41** 1.14

Worked 1 1

1 For Turkish Speaker women the levels are: Not worked/Worked without social security

Worked with social security

Transition to Third Birth: Determinants

Event history model - relative risks of the transition to third birth

FIRST MARRIAGE SPECIFIC CULTURAL CHARACTERISTICS

*** p ≤ 0.01 0.01 < ** p ≤ 0.05 0.05 < *p ≤0.1

  Turkish Speaker Kurdish Speaker

Family Type at Marriage  

Neo-local 1 1

Patri-local 1.29*** 1.00

Marriage Arrangement  

By Couple 1 1

By Family 1.16** 1.04

Bride's Money Paid  

No 1 1

Yes 1.23** 1.46***

Relationship to Husband  

Not Related 1 1

First degree relative 1.15* 1.06

Other relative 1.12 0.58***

Transition to Third Birth: Determinants

Event history model - relative risks of the transition to third birth

PAST FERTILITY EXPERIENCE

*** p ≤ 0.01 0.01 < ** p ≤ 0.05 0.05 < *p ≤0.1

  Turkish Speaker Kurdish Speaker

Age at Second Birth  

<=22 2.28*** 1.68***

23-25 2.15*** 1.80***

26-29 1.59*** 1.35

30+ 1 1

Previous birth interval  

< 24 Months 1.36*** 1.08

>=24 Months 1 1

Survival Status of the First Child  

Alive before 3rd conception 1 1

Death before 3rd conception 2.63*** 1.22

Sex of previous children  

MM 1.17** 1.09

FF 1.71*** 1.68***

MIX 1 1

Transition to Third Birth: Determinants

Event history model - relative risks of the transition to third birth

HUSBAND CHARACTERISTICS

*** p ≤ 0.01 0.01 < ** p ≤ 0.05 0.05 < *p ≤0.1

  Turkish Speaker Kurdish Speaker

Husband Education  

No Education /Primary Incomplete 1.36* 1.11

Primary and higher 1 1

Transition to Third Birth: Determinants

Event history model - relative risks of the transition to third birth

CONTEXT VARIABLES

*** p ≤ 0.01 0.01 < ** p ≤ 0.05 0.05 < *p ≤0.1

  Turkish Speaker Kurdish Speaker

Mother Tongue  

Kurdish_ Don't Know Turkish 1.63***

Kurdish_ Know Turkish 1

Period (Time-Varying Cov.)  

1983-87 1 1

1988-92 0.90** 0.93

1993-97 0.81* 1.07

1998-03 0.77* 0.75**

Interaction: Period and Mother Tongue

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1983-87 1988-92 1993-97 1998-03

Period

Re

lati

ve

ris

k o

f th

ird

bir

th

TurkishKurdish_Don't Know TurkishKurdish_ Know Turkish

1.0

Conclusion

The fertility behavior turns out to be parity specific limitation behavior for Turkish speaker women after parity one and more significantly, after the

parity two. The educated Turkish women may be now ‘pioneer’ of the lowest-low fertility behavior.

In contrast, the Kurdish speaker women who do not speak Turkish, could not read and who did not work, married traditionally compose ‘laggard’ group

in fertility transition process of Turkey.

The results can be seen as supportive of the argument that the segments of the population that have been more integrated into social, economic and political modernization and urbanization trends are changing their fertility

behavior more rapidly.

The socio-economic determinants of important however effect is modified by mother tongue (ethnicity) and cultural characteristics (dimensions of the patriarchy)

The fertility dynamics of Kurdish parents is an important factor in determining

when and how the demographic transition in Turkey will be completed

Sutay Yavuz (PhD Candidate) yavuz@demogr.mpg.de

Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock

www.demogr.mpg.de

Thank you very much