ESTONIA`S FOURTH NATIONAL COMMUNICATION

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ESTONIA`S FOURTH NATIONAL

COMMUNICATION

Under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change

Estonia, November 2005

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LIST OF IMPLEMENTERS

Jaan-Mati Punning Tallinn University, Institute of Ecology, team leader Jaanus Terasmaa Tallinn University, Institute of Ecology, project co-ordinatorTiiu Koff Tallinn University, Institute of EcologyAre Kont Tallinn University, Institute of Ecology Mart Landsberg Tallinn Technical University, Department of Electrical Power Engineering Olev Liik Tallinn Technical University, Department of Electrical Power EngineeringAnts Martins Tallinn Technical University, Faculty of SciencesMargus Pensa Tallinn University, Institute of EcologyInge Roos Tallinn Technical University, Department of Thermal EngineeringSulev Soosaar Tallinn Technical University, Department of Thermal Engineering Kristel Uetallo FKSM KE Ltd , PärnuTiit Vaasma Tallinn University, Institute of Ecology

Photos: Uudo Timm and Diana Kuusik, Estonian Environment Information Centre

FOR FUTHER INFORMATION PLEASE CONTACT:

Ministry of the Environment

Narva mnt 7a15172 Tallinn, EstoniaPhone: +372 62 62 802 Fax: +372 62 62 801e-mail: min@envir.ee

Institute of Ecology, Tallinn University

Suur-Sadama 510120 Tallinn, Estonia

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

ABBREVIATIONS

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY OF THE FOURTH ESTONIA`S NATIONAL COMMUNICATION FOR THE UNFCCC

1.1. Introduction1.2. National circumstances1.3. Emission inventories

1.3.1. CO2 emission1.3.2. CO2 removals1.3.3. CH4 emissions1.3.4. N2O emissions1.3.5. Other gases1.3.6. Aggregated emissions of GHG

1.4. Greenhouse gas emission mitigation measures1.5. Emission projections1.6. Vulnerability analysis and adaptation strategy1.7. Research, education and public awareness

2. NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES2.1. Background and institutional arrangement2.2. Geographic, climatic and demographic profiles2.3. Natural resources and land use2.4. Economic profile 2.4.1. General 2.4.2. Economic indicators 2.4.3. Tax system2.5. Energy and industry profile 2.5.1. Energy profile 2.5.2. Transport

3. INVENTORIES OF ANTHROPOGENIC EMISSIONS AND REMOVALS OF GREENHOUSE GASES

3.1. Introduction3.2. Trends of Estonia’s greenhouse gas emissions3.3. Methodology and uncertainties

3.3.1 Uncertainties3.3.2. Fuel combustion - general method3.3.3. GHG Emissions from Mobile Sources3.3.4. Feedstock’s and Non-Energy Use of Fuels3.3.5. Burning Traditional Biomass Fuels3.3.6. International Bunkers and Multilateral Operations3.3.7. Industrial Processes3.3.8. Agriculture3.3.9. Waste3.3.10. Forestry

3.4. CO2 emissions and removals3.4.1. Energy3.4.2 Transport sector3.4.3. Industrial Processes3.4.4. GHG budget in land use sectors

3.5. CH4 emissions3.5.1. Energy3.5.2. Agriculture3.5.3. Waste management

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3.6. N2O emissions3.7. HFCs, PFCs and SF6 emissions3.8. Indirect GHG and SO2 emissions3.9. Aggregated emissions of GHG ANNEXES OF PART 3

4. POLICIES AND MEASURES

4.1. Institutional and legislative framework4.2. International agreements and conventions, EU legislation4.3. Strategic documents and programmes

4.3.1. National Environmental Strategy4.3.2. Long-term National Development Plan for the Fuel and Energy Sector4.3.3. National Programme to reduce the emission of GHG4.3.4. Joint Implementation4.3.5. National allocation plan for GHG emission allowances4.3.6. Other strategy documents and programmes

4.4. New national legislation4.5. Fiscal measures4.6. Environmental monitoring and supervision4.7. Overview by sector

4.7.1. Energy sector4.7.2. Transport4.7.3. Industry4.7.4. Agriculture4.7.5. Forestry4.7.6. Waste management

5. PROJECTIONS AND EFFECTS OF POLICIES AND MEASURES

5.1. Methodology5.1.1. MARKAL model features

5.2. Basic considerations5.2.1. Forecast of main energy indicators5.2.2. Basic modelling assumptions

5.3. Energy related CO2 emission scenarios5.3.1. With measures (WM) scenario5.3.2. With additional measures (WAM) scenario5.3.3. Without measures (WOM) scenario5.3.4. Comments on results5.3.5. Conclusions

5.4. Forestry5.5. Agriculture

5.5.1. Projections of GHG from agriculture 5.6. References

6. EXPECTED IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSEMENT

6.1. Climate Change6.2. Climate Scenarios6.3. Vulnerability analysis

6.3.1. Agriculture6.3.2. Forestry6.3.3. Water resources6.3.4. Coastal resources

7. EDUCATION, TRAINING AND PUBLIC AWARENESS

7.1. Introduction

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7.2. Education7.2.1. Educational system7.2.2. Environmental education in pre-primary schools7.2.3. Environmental education in basic school and gymnasium7.2.4. Environmental education in higher schools7.2.5. Adult training

7.3. NGOs7.4. Green Energy and Estonian Fund for Nature7.5. Research7.6. Cooperation at international level

7.6.1. Joint projects with EU7.7. Cooperation at national levels

7.7.1. Cooperation between the ministries7.8. Outlook for implementation in the field of education, training and public awareness

8. REFERENCES

ANNEXES

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Abbreviations

AAU – Assigned Amount Unit AIJ – Activities Implemented JointlyBEF – Baltic Environmental ForumBSP – Baltic Sea ProjectCAP – EU Common Agricultural PolicyCCCEQ – Canadian Climate Centre Equilibrium Model (Canada)CFBC – Circulating Fluidized Bed CombustionCRF – Common Reporting FormatCSIRO9M2 – Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research OrganisationDANCEE – Assistance to Eastern EuropeDH – District HeatingEAGGF – European Agricultural Guidance and Guarantee FundEC – European CommisionECHAM3TR – European Centre/Hamburg Model 3 Transient (Germany)EERC – Estonian Environmental Research CentreEIC – Environmental Investment Centre ELF – Estonian Fund for NatureEMAS – European Management and Audit SchemeEMS – Environment Management SystemERDF – European Regional Development FundERU – Emission Reduction UnitESF – European Social FundEU – European UnionFBC – Fluidized Bed CombustionGDP –Gross Domestic ProductGFDLLO – Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Transient Model (USA)GHG – Greenhouse Gas(es)GWP – Global Warming PotentialHadCM2 – Hadley Centre Unified Model 2 Transient (UK)HFC-hydrofluorocarbonsHOB – Heat Only BoilerIPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeISO – International Standardisation OrganisationJI – Joint ImplementationLFO – Light Fuel OilLPG – Liquefied Petroleum GasLULUCF – Land-Use, Land-Use Change and ForestryMAGICC – Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-Gas Induced Climate ChangeMoA – Ministry of AgricultureMoEAC – Ministry of Economic Affairs and CommunicationsMoE – Ministry of EnvironmentNAO – North Atlantic OscillationNAP – National Allocation PlanNCSA – National Capacity Needs Self-Assessment NDP – National Development PlanNGO – Non-Governmental OrganisationNMVOC – Non-Methane Volatile Organic CompoundsNW – Naturewatch BalticODP – Ozone Depletion PotentialODS – Ozone Depleting SubstancesPFBC – Pressurized Fluidized Bed CombustionREC – Regional Environmental CentreRES – Reference Energy SystemRMK – State Forest Management CentreRT I – Riigi Teataja I (State Gazette I)RT L – Riigi Teataja L (State Gazette L)SCENGEN – (SCEN)ario (GEN)eratorSE21 – “Sustainable Estonia 21”

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SOE – Statistical Office of EstoniaSPD – Single Programming DocumentTEEC – Tartu Environmental Education Centre TLU – Tallinn UniversityUNFCCC – United Nations Framework Convention on Climate ChangeUS – United StatesVAT – Value Added TaxWAM – With additional measuresWatBal – (Wat)er (Bal)ance WM – With measuresWOM – Without measuresWWF – World Wide Fund

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1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY OF THE FOURTH ESTONIA`S NATIONAL COMMUNICATION FOR THE UNFCCC

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1.1. Introduction

Estonia signed the Framework Convention on Climate Change at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development held in Rio de Janeiro in June 1992. In 1994 Estonia ratified the UN FCCC and in 2002, the Kyoto Protocol. Under the Protocol Estonia is obliged to reduce during the period 2008-1012 the emissions of air polluting greenhouse gases from its territory by 8% as compared with the 1990 level.

In response to UNFCCC requirements Estonia has prepared since 1994 every year National Inventory Reports and three National Communications. The current Fourth National Communication covers the GHG inventories of the years 1990 to 2003 including also the years for which inventories have been reported earlier but have now been recalculated. The purpose of all recalculations was to improve the accuracy and completeness. Now, the inventory of all years is estimated using the same methodology, adjusted statistical data and emission factors.

The general trends in the emissions and sinks are obvious. In 2003 the net emission in GWP units was only 22% of that in 1990 and the decreasing trend is continuing. The sink comprises from total emissions in CO2 equivalents about 30%. The favourable trends are mainly due to the restructuring of economy but also political measures. In 1994, when the first National Inventory Report was completed, Estonia belonged to the group of the world’s greatest emitters of GHG per inhabitant, but in 2003 we are already quite close to the average level. The reliability of our initial data has improved, legislation and surveillance have greatly developed and we can be sure that Estonia is capable of achieving the 8% reduction of GHG emissions as compared to the 1990 level by the year 2012 envisaged in the Kyoto Protocol.

1.2. National circumstances

Estonia is situated in the north-western part of the flat East-European Plain, remaining entirely within the drainage area of the Baltic Sea. It lies between latitudes 57o30`N and 59o49`N and 21o46`E and 28o13`E. To the west and north it has a long coastline on the Baltic Sea which is characterized by numerous bays, peninsulas, and straits between islands. The total area of Estonia is 45 227 km2, including 42 692 km2 of land area. More than a half of the land area is forestland, one-third is agricultural land, about 8% is under settlements and infrastructure, and remaining is covered by shrublands and peatlands (mires and bogs).

Estonia belongs to the Atlantic continental region of the temperate zone. The mean annual temperature at the westernmost point is 6.0 °C and at the most easterly point it is from 4.2 to 4.5 °C. These differences can be observed because Estonia’s territory lies in a transitional belt with the maritime type of climate in the West Estonian archipelago and the continental one in eastern Estonia. The climate of Estonia is humid because precipitation exceeds evapotranspiration. Nevertheless, there are often droughts during the summer period. The mean annual precipitation ranges from 550 to 750 mm. The mean annual total solar radiation in Estonia is 1300 – 1400 W/m2. Due to a very intense cyclonic activity in Northern Europe, the mean wind speed is comparatively high – 5–7 m/s – in the coastal zone.

Estonia is one of the smallest and least populated countries in Europe – its total population accordingly to the 2000 Population Census was 1.44 million inhabitants and 1.361 million as of 1 January 2002. The population density in Estonia is very low compared to the EU: the average

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population density is 31.3 persons per km2, while the rural population density is 10.4 persons per km2.

Estonia is quite rich in renewable resources. Today 47.3% of the country (approximately 2.14 million ha) is covered by forest. During the past half-century the area of forest stands has nearly doubled and the growing stock on it has increased 2.7 times. In the early 1990s the area of forest increased rapidly mainly due to the abandonment of agricultural land.

The Estonian economy experienced a sharp and deep reduction in GDP in the early years of transition. The downward trend in economic activity stopped in 1995. In the recent years the GDP growth has been rapid. So in 2002 it was outstandingly fast (7.2%) and in 2003 a little lower (5.1%). Private consumption was favoured on the one hand by the historically low rise of consumer prices and hence the highest rise of real wages in recent years, on the other hand by persistently falling interest rates on loans and deposits.

1.3. Emission inventories

The energy sector is the main industrial sector in Estonia. In 2003, the share of domestic fuels – oil shale, wood and peat – accounted for 73% of the primary energy resources. Imported fuels (natural gas, fuel oils, coal, motor fuels) made up only 27% of the fuels utilised in 2003. The share of renewable energy sources reached 10.5%, wood fuels formed the major part of it, the proportion of other sources remained on the level of 0.1%. From the energy of primary fuels about 43% was used for electricity production, 24% for heat production, 15% for the production of secondary fuels (i.e. shale oil), 2% as raw material in industry and 16% for immediate final consumption. The heat production remained on the same level during 1999–2003. Mainly oil shale and natural gases were used in the production of heat. During the last years the share of oil shale in heat production has decreased, at the same time the share of natural gas has increased.

1.3.1. CO2 emission

Approximately 90% of Estonia’s energy is produced through the combustion of fossil fuels. The remaining 10 per cent comes from renewable, such as biomass, hydropower, and wind. In 2003, Estonia emitted 18830 Gg of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel combustion, what corresponds to 98% of the total CO2 emissions. Estonia satisfies most of its energy demand and approximately 62% of CO2 emissions from combustion of oil shale the remaining 38% come from natural gas (13%), motor fuels (gasoline and diesel oil, 11%), renewables (mainly wood, 10%), fuel oils (light fuel oil, heavy fuel oil and shale oil, 3%) and other fuels (coal, coke, 1%) (Figure 1.3.1).

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Figure 1.3.1. CO2 emissions by energy sources, 2003.

Oil Shale72%

Fuel oils5%

Natural Gas 8%

Motor fuels12%

Peat2%

Others1%

The transport sector is the second largest source of carbon dioxide in Estonia and road transport is responsible for 90% of CO2 emissions in the transport sector. In the period 1990-2003 the number of passenger cars increased significantly. At the same time the consumption of motor fuels in the transport sector decreased from 37.1 PJ in 1990 to 30.2 PJ in 2003 due to the increasing share of new and more economical vehicles. Considerable decrease of CO2 emissions in the industrial sector since 1992 was caused by the reduction of cement and lime production in mid 90ies. From 1998 onwards the production amounts of minerals have been growing, particularly in cement industry, which is characterised also by increased CO2 emissions.

1.3.2. CO2 removals

Since 1990 considerable changes have occurred in Estonian forestry sector. The area of forestland has steadily increased from 1,856,800 ha in 1990 to 2,267,300 ha in 2003; total cutting from 3,200,000 m3 to 7,811,000 m3; and total biomass increment from 9,103,400 m3 to 12,254,000 m3. These changes have affected the removals and emissions of CO2 by forests. The increase in total cutting has caused higher CO2 emissions in 2003 as compared with 1990. The increase in CO2 emissions due to more extensive cuttings has partly been mitigated by greater growing stock increment in the second half of the period. Thus, net removals of CO2 have steadily increased (Figure 1.3.2).

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Figure 1.3.2. Net CO2 removals by forests, Gg.-10000

-9000

-8000

-7000

-6000

-5000

-40001990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

CO

2, G

g

1.3.3. CH4 emissions

Methane comprises about 9 per cent of the total Estonia’s greenhouse gases (2003). In Estonia, the major sources of methane are energy, agriculture and waste management sectors (Figure 1.3.3).

Figure 1.3.3. Methane emissions by main sources, Gg.

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

210

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

WasteAgriculture Energy

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The main sources of CH4 emissions in Estonia is energy sector, including fugitive emissions from oil shale mining, fuel handling and transport, enteric fermentation and waste manegement. Methane emission from enteric fermentation forms about 75% of total CH4 emission from agriculture. The waste management gave ca 50% from the total methane emission.

1.3.4. N2O emissions

In Estonia, nitrous oxide emissions contribute about 2.1 per cent to the Estonia’s total greenhouse gas emissions. The main activities producing Estonia's emissions of N2O are soil management and fertilizers used in agriculture, but also fossil fuel combustion (see Table 1.3.1).

Table 1.3.1. Estonia's sources of nitrous oxide emissions, Gg

1.3.5. Other gases

We do not have today a data collection system in Estonia needed for the emission calculations of fluorinated gases. The Ozone and Climate Unit at the Estonian Environmental Research Centre (EERC) has in the course of building up its ODS (ozone depleting substances) data bases also included HCFs whenever information was available but there are still major gaps in the collected data on fluorinated gases.

The emissions of the so called indirect GHG like NOx, CO and NMVOC during the reporting period have been constant, but on average the total amount of emissions has decreased twice since 1990.

1.3.6. Aggregated emissions of GHG

The Estonia’s total anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in 2003 were 21.387 Gg of carbon dioxide equivalents (without LULUCF) which is about 51% under the 1990 level (43.494 Gig respectively)

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003Fuel Combustion 0.15 0.15 0.11 0.09 0.11 0.14 0.16 0.16 0.14 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.14 0.14

Agriculture 3.15 3.09 2.53 1.61 1.41 1.19 1.09 1.20 1.25 1.02 1.21 1.04 0.88 0.86

Total Emissions 3.30 3.23 2.63 1.70 1.53 1.32 1.25 1.37 1.39 1.16 1.34 1.17 1.01 1.01

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Figure 1.3.4. Contribution of net GHG emission by sectors, Gg CO2 eq.

2 44

0

732

614

-6 3

17

1 60

8

38 8

29

-8 7

17

733

276

19 6

45

-10 000

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

Energy Agriculture Waste IndustrialProcesses

Land-UseChange and

Forestry

1990 2003

1.4. Greenhouse gas emission mitigation measures

During the short period elapsed since Estonia regained its independence, a great progress has been made in developing the legislation. Estonian legal acts were amended in the process of integration with the European Union, and today Estonian legislation, including legislation on environmental management, is almost fully harmonized with the acquis communautaire of the EU.

Estonia signed the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change on 3 December 1998, the Protocol was ratified by the Estonian Parliament on 3 September 2002 (RT II 2002, 26, 111). According to the Protocol, during 2008 – 2012 Estonia has to reduce the GHG emissions by 8% in comparison with the 1990 level. A new division has been formed in the Information Centre of the MoE – Climate and Ozone Bureau, what will be responsible authority in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme implementation in Estonia.

In April 2004 the Government approved the National Program of Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction for 2003-2012 (RT L 2004, 59, 990). The main goal of the Program is to ensure the meeting of targets set by the UN FCCC and the Kyoto Protocol. A special attention has been given to strategy, structure and costs of GHG emission trading and joint implementation projects. The long-term objective of the National Program is reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 21% by 2010 as compared with the 1999 emission level. This would include reduction of carbon dioxide emissions by 20%, reduction of methane emissions by 28%, and increase of nitrogen dioxide emissions by 9%.

The Energy Conservation Programme (together with the Operational Programme for the Conservation Programme 2001–2005) approved by the Government in 2000, has the general goal to support the competitiveness of economy through increased energy efficiency; the

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quantitative objective is to keep the growth rate of energy consumption at the level of 50% of the economic (GDP) growth rate.

The Transport Development Plan for 1999–2006 was adopted by the Government in 1999. As to environment, there was set the goal of slowing down the growth of absolute amounts of the total emission from transport sector. At present, the preparation process of the National Transport Development Plan for 2005–2010 is in progress.

In 1997 the Parliament (Riigikogu) approved the Estonian Forest Policy (RT I 1997, 47, 768) that regulates the forestry sector, which is the main GHG sink in Estonia. In November 2002 the Parliament approved the Estonian Forestry Development Plan up to 2010 (RT I 2002, 95, 552). The development plan attaches importance to forests in Estonian society, and plans the use and protection of forests in accordance with the principles of sustainable management. The Plan provides annual maximal felling allowance values, which to some extent can be modified on an as needed basis.

The National Waste Management Plan (RT I 2002, 104, 609) is an important strategic document organizing waste management and providing guidance at national level. The Plan constitutes a part of Estonia’s environmental policy and it is closely connected with the National Environmental Action Plan. The Plan provides for systematic waste management, uniform goals for the state as a whole, establishes objectives and tasks for counties, local governments, businesses and for population.

Estonian Strategy on Sustainable Development – Sustainable Estonia 21 as an alternative national development plan covering the issues of economy, culture and the environment, was elaborated in 2001-2003. The Strategy is based on the principles of Agenda 21 and the EU Strategy for Sustainable Development. It aims at creating an integral vision of Estonian long-term development to support integration of different policies and to co-ordinate implementation of development plans of different sectors. With regard to the international cooperation in integration of environment into other policies, Estonia has started to implement the action programme for sustainable development adopted by all Baltic Sea countries in the framework of Agenda 21 for the Baltic Sea region.

As a Member State, Estonia has to meet the EU requirements (Directive 2003/96/EC) for taxation of fuels and energy. Nevertheless, Estonia was granted some transitional periods for introduction of taxation. Regarding the major source of the CO2 in Estonia – the oil shale, the Directive 2004/74/EC stipulates that Estonia may apply a total exemption from taxation of oil shale until 1 January 2009.

Regarding pollution, the most important part of the energy sector is the combustion of oil shale, as approximately 70% of atmospheric pollution, 80% of effluents and 80% of solid waste are connected with the oil shale power industry. Introduction of new combustion technology allows reducing emissions from oil shale firing power plants. Heat supply, particularly district heating, is the next important sector where there is a large potential for increasing energy efficiency, which in turn results in lower emissions. Deployment of renewable energy sources, especially biomass and wind, will have an increasing role of mitigating impact of energy sector on environment in Estonia. By 2010 the share of renewable electricity is planned to reach the level of at least 5.1% of the gross consumption. The potential of Estonian renewable energy is primarily in the wind power and combined heat and power production based on biofuel; at the same time also small-scale hydropower industry can be developed.

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Forest harvesting volumes have to be planned considering forest biomass increment. Based on the Act on Sustainable Development (RT I 1995, 31, 384) the Government has to set the limit to forest use so that natural balance and forest reproduction, following protective harvesting regimes and preservation of species and landscape diversity would be secured. To secure continuous carbon dioxide sink by forests, the annual harvesting volume should be at least 1–2 million cubic meters smaller than the current increment. In that case annual sink by forests would be approximately 2000 Gg CO2.

Although agriculture has traditionally been one of the most important sectors of economy in Estonia, its importance has been continuously decreasing after Estonia regained its independence. The emissions of CH4 and N2O from agriculture have fallen during the last ten years by about 60–70%. For preparing the agricultural sectors and rural areas of candidate countries for accession to the European Union, the programme SAPARD was used. It was approved according to the Rural Development Plan 2004-2006 drawn up under the EU Resolution 1268/1999/EC. This development plan is very important from the aspect of the abatement of greenhouse gas emissions because investments made in the framework of the SAPARD programme were envisaged basically for increasing production efficiency and solving problems of sustainable development in the agricultural sector. The objective of all political and other measures is to raise the production efficiency by means of introducing new technologies.

1.5. Emission projections

The analysis of emission projections has been carried out using the Estonian MARKAL model. The following basic assumptions were made in all scenarios:

1. Electricity and biomass imports and nuclear plants are restricted.2. Electricity net export is allowed until 2015.3. Price of natural gas will increase rapidly to the European level.4. GDP forecast is based on the actual value of 2000 GDP at market prices, actual growth

in 2001 and 2002, and the annual growth bases on the forecast of the Ministry of Finance of Estonia until 2030.

5. All scenarios use low energy consumption forecast. Heat consumption is assumed to be stable over the planning period, but electricity consumption is forecast to increase.

6. The planning period is 2000-2030 and the discount factor is 0.05.7. The number of population remains stable around 1.4 million over the planning period.

The forecasts of tax-free production and import prices (without inflation) of the main fuels for MARKAL modelling were the following:

• The oil shale price 14.2 EEK/GJ=0.91 EUR/GJ will remain constant until 2020 and then it will rise to the level of 18 EEK/GJ. The import price of coal will be stable on the level of 25 EEK/GJ=1.6 EUR/GJ.

• The production price of peat is assumed to grow from 20 EEK/GJ to 30 EEK/GJ and the price of wood fuel from 13 EEK/GJ to 30 EEK/GJ during 2000-2030.

• It is assumed that Estonia’s joining the EU brings rapidly about the same price levels and its growth predictions for natural gas and oil products. It means the growth of the heavy fuel oil price from 50 EEK/GJ=3.2 EUR/GJ in 2000 to 170 EEK/GJ = 10.9 EUR/GJ in 2030 and the growth of the natural gas price from 35 EEK/GJ = 2.24 EUR/GJ to 125 EEK/GJ = 8 EUR/GJ during the same period.

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The following scenarios were compiled:With measures (WM) scenario. In this scenario approved or already decided policy measures are as described in “Policy and Measures”. The following basic assumptions were considered in the scenario: starting from 2008 our power plants have to comply with the EU directive on the limitation of emissions into the air from large combustion plants, Estonia will fulfil requirements on emission reductions and introduction of renewables and environmental taxes continue to increase 20% annually and they will reach the European forecast values at the end of the planning period.

With additional measures (WAM) scenario. In this scenario approved or already decided policy measures are as described in “National Programme for the Reduction of GHG Emissions”. The following basic assumptions were made is that the long-term objective of the National Programme is reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 21% by 2010 as compared with the 1999 emission level. This includes reduction of carbon dioxide emissions by 20%, reduction of methane emissions by 28%, and increase of nitrogen dioxide emissions by 9%.

Two subscenarios were compiled: WAM-LEVEL1--reduction of CO2 emissions by 1% during 2010-2030 compared to the 2010 level and WAM-LEVEL2 – gradual reduction of CO2

emissions by 15% during 2010-2030 compared to the 2010 level in WM scenario.

Without measures (WOM) scenario where all measures described in were excluded.

The main findings are as follows:• Estonian CO2 emissions will never climb up to the Kyoto limit under any scenario.

There is no need to buy emission permits in the future.• Main driving factors for CO2 reduction are the improvement of conversion efficiency

of fossil technologies, and increase in the share of CHP and renewables.• Total capacity of CHP plants will increase quite rapidly giving the main future

solution for heat production as well. This tendency is common in all scenarios. The CHP potential will be used fully at the end of the planning period in all scenarios, only market shares of different fuels will differ by scenarios.

• Future solutions in the Estonian energy system are very sensitive to the price of natural gas. The security of Russian gas supply is an extremely important factor as well.

• In the scenarios WAM, the more rigid CO2 emission limits compared with the WM scenario will be met to a great extent by larger use of natural gas in high efficiency condensing power plants. Use of oil shale in electricity generation will decrease, but the PFBC technology is a considerable option starting from 2015. This shows that it is important to continue the research of pressurized fluidized bed combustion of oil shale.

The development plan of forestry states three basic principles that may affect the emissions of GHG in the forestry sector: forest land area cannot decline below the current level (i.e., approximately 50% of Estonian terrestrial area); the annual harvesting volume should not exceed the annual increment (it is suggested that optimal volume of annual harvesting should be 12.6 million m3); afforestation of abandoned agricultural lands and mining areas.

For estimating changes in GHG emissions in agriculture sector different scenarios were drawn up on the basis of long-term forecasts obtained from the Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) and the

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Ministry of the Environment (MoE) and acccording to the National Programme of Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction for 2003-2012 (RT L 2004, 59, 990), it can be assumed that Estonian agriculture will reach the level of other EU member states with regard of all indicators. The aggregate GHG emissions from the agricultural sector would increase by the year 2020 to up to 60% of the 1990 level.

1.6. Vulnerability analysis and adaptation strategy

Climate change scenarios for the 21st century were constructed following the methodology recommended for regional climate change impact studies. Air temperature and precipitation projections were compiled using a climate model – Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-Gas Induced Climate Change (MAGICC) and a regional climate change database – (SCEN)ario (GEN)erator (SCENGEN). The baseline climate was defined as that prevailing between 1961 and 1990. Climate change scenarios were created for the years 2050 and 2100.

For the analysis of the effect of various climate change scenarios on the national grain yield, changes in barley productivity were estimated by aggregating the results on the tested soils and presenting as weighted mean values over the whole cultivated area of Estonia. It may be concluded that despite the small territory of Estonia, the soil and climate conditions are extremely variable, affecting strongly plant growth. As the modelling results show, temperature rise would decrease the crop yields everywhere in Estonia. Most vulnerable would be the cultivated areas on dry sandy soils. The fields on gleyic and gleyed soils would be less affected. However, the yields on these soils are so low (1.42-3.20 t/ha) and unstable that cultivation of barley is not profitable at all.

Earlier experiments using biophysical models for the productivity of various crops have shown that the effect of climate warming is more favourable on herbage cultivation than on cereals. Climate warming would make the potato yield very unstable. It may fall on unfertile and overmoist soils. Unlike herbage, the soil and climatic preconditions are relatively unfavourable for potato cultivation in western Estonia.

The climate change scenarios with respect to forest resources reflected obvious trends: a decrease in the snow pack duration and earlier snowmelt with increasing climate warming. The reduced influence of snowmelt on stream discharge would increase the synchronization between precipitation and stream discharge. Soils would become slightly drier during the growing season and, coupled with decreased spring and summer precipitation, increase drought stress. This could increase the forest fire potential, which could, in turn, accelerate species migration.

All climate scenarios predicted a significant increase in river runoff during autumn caused by increased precipitation. In the western part of Estonia, the runoff maximum in autumn (November) was expected to exceed the spring maximum. In eastern Estonia, typical snow cover conditions would remain but the duration of winter and its stability would decrease. As a consequence of the earlier spring runoff maximum, the minimum runoff in summer would also start earlier, in May rather than June. A certain pattern is influenced by local conditions, first of all by the character of the spring runoff peak of the rivers. The results of the water resources vulnerability assessment showed a strong dependence on regional changes in runoff and local topography and landscape features.

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The results of analysis of water supply and demand indicated no effect of climate change on water use in Estonia. The groundwater resources can guarantee a sufficient supply of good quality domestic water in all regions of the country. Water consumption in towns and other settlements would be independent of the quantity and quality fluctuations of rivers. Climate warming would also have a positive influence on the ecological state of water-bodies in Estonia.

Risk analysis of potential sea-level rise was carried out in seven study areas. Detailed measurements and observations have been done in three study sites on Saaremaa Island with the aim of recording the changes resulted from increased storminess over recent decades. The study sites serve different human functions and represent a variety of coastal settlements. Thus, detailed analysis of the study areas provides the means of extrapolating the results for the whole country.

A 1.0 m sea rise would change substantially the coastline contour and the number of small islands. The most significant changes would occur on the western coast, including the Matsalu Bay test area. Coastal meadows and reed beds, characteristic ecosystems of the western coast of mainland Estonia, would migrate inland, but would not perish. Nevertheless, sea-level rise would reduce species richness, because the new sites for developing seashore grasslands are currently arable lands or young species-poor forests, and many of the rare species may not survive the migration into initially unfavourable conditions. Waves during the recent strong storms approached dwellings 300 m inland. Almost 2.5 km2 of the territory of Pärnu, the largest town in this region, is located in the zone of inundation.

The greatest destruction of the coastal zone in Estonia today is associated with stormy periods. Research carried out in Estonia over the last decade shows that the absence of sea ice cover in winter fosters coastal damage. The most exceptional changes in shoreline position and contour in many coastal areas of Estonia are attributable to a combination of strong storms, high sea level and mild (ice-free) weather. Depositional coasts, particularly beaches, are most vulnerable to this combination.

1.7. Research, education and public awareness

Climate change education and outreach is key to engage all stakeholders and major groups in the development and implementation of related policies. At COP 8 (New Delhi, October/November 2002), recognizing the need to establish a country-driven work programme on Article 6 of the Convention that enhances cooperation, coordination and exchange of information among governments, intergovernmental organizations, non-governmental organizations and community-based organizations, as well as the private and public sectors, Parties adopted the “New Delhi work programme” (Decision 11/CP.8).

Estonia has followed these recommendations and in recent years provisions promoting the involvement of the general public have started to appear in the national legislation (e.g. Environmental Impact Assessment and Environmental Auditing Act (RT I 2002, 99, 579). Through synergies between the UNFCCC and other conventions the cooperation is promoted both at the national and the international level. In the Final document of the National Capacity Needs Self-Assessment for Global Environmental Management in Estonia (NCSA-Estonia, 2004) among the major actions for further capacity building it is also stated that the role of the environmental conventions should be increased in study programmes of all school levels and in continuing education programmes aimed at companies.

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Estonia has enhanced efforts to develop and use curricula and teacher training focused on climate change as methods to integrate climate change issues at all educational levels and across the disciplines. Having the environment and sustainable development as the underlying themes in the curricula is quite a new phenomenon in our educational system and therefore teachers and heads of schools need advice and training in these matters. To meet this demand, a successful environmental education projects for schools was organized. The project aims to make students aware of changes in the environment over time and take responsibility for the environment in which they live. There are a number of other environmental projects are ongoing for schoolchildren. Internationally, GLOBE is being implemented through bilateral agreements between the US government and governments of partner nations. Beside the running projects there is a system of various types of centres whose activities include environmental training. For example the State Forest Management Centre (RMK) has 7 nature centres.

All Estonian public law universities have curricula in environmental education, devoted to sound environmental management, sustainable development, environmentally efficient power engineering, protection of the atmosphere etc. There are similar courses in the private universities. This topic is part of the curricula of the future teacher training but not in all specialities.

The environmental education is incorporated also to the activities of the 58 NGOs. Besides Friends of Earth – Estonia also the European Youth Forest Action Estonia, Estonian Geographical Society, Forest Youth, Estonian Union of Scout Supporter's Societies, Viljandi Youth Society for Nature Conservation, Estonian Ecotourism Association, Centre for Applied Ecology, Estonian Biology and Geography Teachers' Union, Estonian Environmental Women's Union, Tartu Students’ Nature Protection Circle, Society for Nature Conservation of Tallinn; Sorex etc are dealing with environmental education and climate change issues.

The Ministry of Education and Research have financed more than 54 research projects that are connected with climate studies. The spectrum of these studies is very wide the studies being connected with the atmospheric circulation processes, ionization, analyses of satellite images and climate modelling. Investigations of this kind are the main goal of the research groups from the National Institute of Hydrology and Meteorology, Tartu Observatory, Institute of Geography of the University of Tartu, Institute of Ecology at Tallinn University etc.

As a member state of the European Union, Estonia will have the opportunity to take part in the regional policy of the Community and to receive financial assistance from the EU budget. There are several Structural Funds that support the EU structural policy and that can be connected with climate change education as well.

“Sustainable Estonia 21” (SE21) is a strategy for the development of the Estonian state and society until 2030. The strategy creates the general framework for interconnecting the social, economic and environmental spheres in terms of long-term development of the society and defines the general objective of the development for Estonia as movement towards the so-called knowledge-based society.

One of the most reliable ways to bring environmental information to people is media. We have different programmes devoted to environmental issues, periodically all main newspapers publish analyses and overviews about the problems of the climate change, scientific organisations organize public discussions. Therefore EIC supported environmental broadcasts produced by three different TV programmes. From the total budget of the environmental awareness

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subordinate programmes the media got 35%, various publications 26%, youth projects 24% and national campaigns 15%. EIC financed also the publication of the Estonian nature magazines that unites naturalists of several generations and also of different levels.

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2. NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES

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2.1. Background and institutional arrangement

Estonia signed the Framework Convention on Climate Change at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development held in Rio de Janeiro in June 1992. In 1994 Estonia ratified the UN FCCC and in 2002, the Kyoto Protocol. Under the Protocol Estonia is obliged to reduce during the period 2008-1012 the emissions of air polluting greenhouse gases from its territory by 8% as compared with the 1990 level.

A National Programme for the Reduction of Greenhouse Gas Emissions was compiled taking into consideration the Kyoto Protocol and the European Council Decision 93/389/EC from 24 June 1993 on the monitoring of greenhouse gas emissions in the EU (EÜT L 167, 09/07/1993 p 0031-0033). On 30 April 2004 the Estonian Government approved the National Programme for the Reduction of Greenhouse Gas Emissions for the years 2003-2012.

Table 2.1.1. National programme for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions for the years 2003-2012

GHG, CO2 eqBase year 1990/19951

Emission 1999, Gg

Emission 2005, Gg

Emission 2010, Gg

Decrease, %

1990/1999

Decrease, %

1990/2005

Decrease, %

1990/2010

Decrease, %

1999/2010CO2 31787 8664 7940 6910 -73 -75 -78 -20CH4 4362 2530 2020 1830 -42 -54 -58 -28N2O 1023 357 390 390 -65 -62 -62 9Total emission 37172 11553 10350 9130 -69 -72 -75 -21

1 The base year for the so-called new gases is 1995. As Estonia has not yet the respective registry, the new gases were not taken into account in the current programme.

In 1994 an Interministerial Committee of Climate Change was created at the Estonian Government. The Chairman of this Committee is the Minister of the Environment and members are from key ministries, scientists as well as representatives of NGOs. This Committee deals with the problems connected with the implementation of UN FCCC, organises monitoring of emissions of GHG, National Communications etc.

The Ministry of the Environment organises the practical providing of GHG inventories and compiling of National Reports. Financial resources for this purpose are planned in the State Budget. Practical work has been done on the basis of contracts. The Institute of Ecology at Tallinn University is responsible for the inventories and National Communications. In conducting inventories as well as in compiling National Communications numerous leading specialists from Tallinn Technical University, University of Tartu, Estonian University of Agricultural Sciences, NGOs etc. are involved The Institute of Ecology informs regularly the Ministry of the Environment as well as the Interministerial Committee about advances and problems.

In response to UNFCCC requirements Estonia has prepared since 1994 every year National Inventory Reports and three National Communications. The Third National Communication covers the GHG inventories of the years 1990 to 1999 including also the years for which

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inventories have been reported earlier but have now been recalculated. The purpose of all recalculations was to improve the accuracy and completeness. Now, the inventory of all years is estimated using the same methodology, adjusted statistical data and emission factors.

The general trends in the emissions and sinks are obvious. In 2003 the net emission in GWP units was only 22% of that in 1990 and the decreasing trend is continuing. The sink comprises from total emissions in CO2 equivalents about 30%. The favourable trends are mainly due to the restructuring of economy but also political measures. In 1994, when the first National Inventory Report was completed, Estonia still belonged to the group of the world’s greatest emitters of GHG per inhabitant, but in 2005 we are already quite close to the average level. The reliability of our initial data has improved, legislation and surveillance have greatly developed and we can be sure that Estonia is capable of achieving the 8% reduction of GHG emissions as compared to the 1990 level by the year 2012 envisaged in the Kyoto Protocol.

It is a pleasure to note that increasing GHG emissions into the atmosphere and possible global warming are becoming problems of nationwide concern. Questions connected with climate change are continuously discussed in the mass media and at conventions of different level; the necessary information is available on the home page of the Ministry of the Environment.

2.2. Geographic, climatic and demographic profiles

Estonia is situated in the north-western part of the flat East-European Plain, remaining entirely within the drainage area of the Baltic Sea. It lies between latitudes 57.30 N and 59.49 N and 21.46 E and 28.13 E. To the west and north, it has a long coastline on the Baltic Sea, which is characterized by numerous bays, peninsulas, and straits between islands. The total area of Estonia is 45 227 km2, including 42 692 km2 of land area. More than a half of the land area is forestland, one-third is agricultural land, about 8% is under settlements and infrastructure, and remaining is covered by shrublands and peatlands (mires and bogs).

Figure 2.2.1. Estonia.

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Estonia is characterized by a flat topography. The average elevation is about 50 m, and the highest point is 318 m above sea level. The country can be divided into two regions: Lower Estonia in the north and west and Upper Estonia in the central and southern parts.

Estonia belongs to the Atlantic continental region of the temperate zone. The mean annual temperature at the westernmost point is 6.0 °C and at the most easterly point it is from 4.2 to 4.5 °C. These differences can be observed because Estonia’s territory lies in a transitional belt with the maritime type of climate in the West Estonian archipelago and the continental one in eastern Estonia. Summers are moderately warm (mean air temperature in July is 16–17 °C) and winters are moderately cold (mean air temperature in February is between –3.5C and –7.5 °C).

The climate of Estonia is humid because precipitation exceeds evapotranspiration. Nevertheless, there are often droughts during the summer period. The mean annual precipitation ranges from 550 to 750 mm.

The mean annual total solar radiation in Estonia is 1300–1400 W/m2. Due to a very intense cyclonic activity in Northern Europe, the mean wind speed is comparatively high – 5–7 m/s – in the coastal zone. The sum of effective temperatures (over 5 oC) is up to 1350° in Northern Estonia and up to 1500° in southern Estonia and the West Estonian islands.

Estonia is one of the smallest and least populated countries in Europe – its total population accordingly to the 2000 Population Census was 1.44 million inhabitants and 1.361 million as of 1 January 2002. The population density in Estonia is very low compared to the EU: the average population density is 31.3 persons per km2, while the rural population density is 10.4 persons per km2.

Figure 2.2.2. Distribution of population in 2003.

Other urban areas21%

Pärnu3%

Tallinn29%

Tartu8%

Rural areas31%

Narva5%

Kohtla-Järve3%

About 70% live in urban areas with 48% living in five largest towns: Tallinn (396 762); Tartu (101 244); Narva (67 554); Kohtla-Järve (46 555); and Pärnu (44 675).

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2.3. Natural resources and land use

Estonia is quite rich in renewable resources. Today 47.3% of the country (approximately 2.14 million ha) is covered by forest stands. During the past half-century the area of forest stands has more than doubled and the growing stock on it has increased 2.7 times. In the early 1990s the area of forest increased rapidly mainly due to the abandonment of agricultural land. The area of forestland has steadily increased from 1 856 800 ha in 1990 to 2 267 300 ha in 2003; total cutting from 3 200 000 m3 to 7 811 000 m3; and total biomass increment from 9 103 400 m3 to 12 254 000 m3. Until 1995, most of the forest belonged to the state. After land reform was completed, 40–50% of forest belonged to the private sector. Today approximately 37% of forestland is in private ownership.

The Estonian forests belong to the zone of mixed and coniferous forests with relatively favourable growth conditions. Despite the small area of Estonia, the forests growing here are rather diverse. The variability brought about by natural conditions is in turn increased by the circumstance that the majority of the forests of Estonia have been affected by human activities in various degrees and ways (cutting, drainage, fires).

The main tree species in Estonian forests are Scots pine, Norway spruce and birch. Forests with conifers as the dominant tree species make up 50%.

Forest industry and forestry have been and still are important contributions to the economy and employment of Estonia. In 1995, forestry accounted for 1.9% of the GDP, which rose to 1.6% by 2003.

Figure 2.3.1. Contribution of forestry and agriculture to the GDP.

0123456789

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Shar

e of

GD

P

Forestry Agriculture and hunting

The share of agricultural gross output has decreased constantly while the share of forestry has remained the same, showing a slow rising tendency in the past ten years.In 2003, 1.175 million hectares of land was in the possession of 36 859 operating and non-operating holdings. Of that agricultural land made up 795 640 hectares, woodland 21.9%, other land 5.3%. The major part of other land was unutilised agricultural land.

Nearly two-thirds of the arable land was drained over the past 40 years but as collective farms were dismantled after 1991, the drainage system has not been well maintained. It is estimated that around 60% of Estonia’s most fertile lands are excessively moist.

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The agricultural register and information department was formed in 2000 to administer national subsidies, EU agriculture and countryside development, agricultural registrars and other databases management. In June 2003 there were 433 767 cadastre units with an area of 3.2 million hectares registered in the land cadastre, which constitutes 71.5% of the total land stock. The following support measures have been implemented: investment aids for agricultural production, improvement of agricultural products handling and marketing, diversification of alternative economic activities in rural areas. The programme “Afforestation investment aid” will provide a better option for the afforestation of unused or uncultivated agricultural lands. All those measures are important to ensure settlement of less advantageous and environmentally limited areas, to foster the spread of environmentally friendly agricultural production, to support agricultural producers to comply with EU requirements (manure handling) and to assist small farms to restructure their production. In 2003, the agricultural sector and rural economy were supported in 332 million kroons (1 EUR=15.64664 EEK).

Table 2.3.1. Gross agricultural output, million kroons

YearCrop production Livestock

productionGross

agricultural output1995 2 847.30 3 120.40 5 967.701996 2 724.60 2 864.30 5 588.901997 2 669.30 2 836.20 5 505.501998 2 312.40 2 918.30 5 230.701999 2 103.90 2 697.20 4 801.102000 3 573.00 3 398.00 6 971.002001 3 078.25 4 194.59 7 272.852002 2 524.71 3 354.06 5 878.772003 2 646.56 3 288.10 5 934.66

Due to natural conditions, cattle breeding with its long traditions are the priority areas of the Estonian agriculture. Dairy cattle farming is the main branch of cattle farming. High-yield grasslands provide the bulk of the feed and also the cheapest feed for dairy herds. However, animal production has been decreasing for several years. The number of farm animals decreased between 1997 and 2003, except in pig and horse farming. The number of dairy cows decreased by 14% during 2002. The main reason for this was that many small producers gave up the dairy business because of their inability to make the investments crucial to the continuation of business.

The quantities of nitrogen taken to the agro-ecological systems have decreased 3–5 fold. While 72 000–112 000 tonnes of active substances of nitrogen fertilizers were used to fertilize field crops in 1980–1990, the quantity was reduced to 20 000–25 000 tones in 1997–2000. The phosphorous quantities applied to the soils with mineral fertilizers have decreased from 49 000–62 000 tonnes in 1980–1990 to 3000–4000 tonnes in 1997–2000.

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2.4. Economic profile

2.4.1. General

Estonia’s transition from planned to market economy started in the early 1990s, with major reforms launched after the monetary reform in 1992. Estonia has been determined and decisive in implementing the necessary reforms. Successful reforms have resulted in achieving early macroeconomic stabilization and the creation of a favourable environment for economic development. Estonia has achieved a high level of commercial and financial integration with the European and global economy.

With independency in 1991, Estonia inherited an economy the structure and the trade relations of which were dominated by the Soviet Union. The economy had to go through a heavy restructuring as its structure was inappropriate and unbalanced in the new situation. Although the environmental legislation before the 1990s in general corresponded to internationally recognized principles and norms of environmental protection, and in many respects was even more stringent, there were limited mechanisms for their practical implementation. Therefore, there was an urgent need to redraft the existing legislation. By the end of the1990s, the updated legal framework of environmental protection, which largely corresponded to the European Union’s environmental acquis, was in place. All the main fields of environmental protection – air, water, waste, industrial pollution etc. –were in general covered by legal acts.

During the reporting period, first great success was achieved in negotiations of all legislation with the EU and then, since May 2004, in the harmonization of various development plans with the EU relevant directives.

2.4.2. Economic indicators

The Estonian economy experienced a sharp and deep reduction in GDP in the early years of transition. Estonian GDP fell by one-third in the four years between 1990 and 1994. As a result of appropriate policy choices and their implementation the general economic situation stabilized by the beginning of 1994, with the increase in efficiency and macroeconomic stabilization creating a favourable environment for economic growth in the coming years. The downward trend in economic activity stopped in 1995.

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Table 2.4.1 Estonian macroeconomic indicators

Indicator 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003

GDP, current prices (mld EEK) 41 92 104 117 126GDP, real growth (%) 4.3 7.8 6.4 7.2 5.1Industrial sales, at constant prices of previous year (%) 2 3.9 5.6 3.6 1.4

Unemployment (%) 9.7 13.7 12.7 10.4 10.1Average wage (EEK) 2375 4907 5510 6144 6723Investments in fixed assets, at current prices (mln EEK) 8760.7 14427.4 20143.6 21023.1 22235.5Foreign direct investment flow (mln EEK) 2312.9 6644.5 9429.6 4800.2 12865.9Exports (mln EEK) 19008.9 55836.8 57856.5 56990.6 62627.2Imports (mln EEK) 27425 72217.1 75076.3 79471.7 89426.7Foreign trade balance (%) -44.3 -29.3 -29.8 -39.4 -42.8Current account balance (mln EEK) -1810.6 -5093.4 -5889.5 -11882.9 -15402

In the recent years the GDP growth has been rapid. So in 2002 it was outstandingly fast (7.2%) and in 2003 a little lower (5.1%). Private consumption was favoured on the one hand by the historically low rise of consumer prices and hence the highest rise of real wages in recent years, on the other hand by persistently falling interest rates on loans and deposits.

Figure 2.4.1. GDP and GDP per capita 2003=100%.

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

CDP per capita %GDP%

Throughout last year, low interest rates and an active inflow of foreign investments contributed to a high investment activity, making the share of investments in the GDP reach a record high, 34.1%. Investments growth was underpinned both by high construction activity and capital goods. The energy sector got the most of the investments, followed by hotels and restaurants.

Year by year the wages rose, reaching 6700 kroons in 2003. However, in 2003 the GDP per capita comprised ca 48% of the EU15 average, at the same time consumer prices made up ca 63%. Therefore people are very sensitive to the tax policy, especially in the transport and household sectors.

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2.4.3. Tax system

In 1991 Estonia started to establish a simple and efficient tax system. The process was supported by a broad political consensus that tax reform and improved control of expenditures were necessary to achieve a successful transition to a market economy. Now Estonia’s tax structure broadly follows international norms. On average during the last three years, payroll and indirect taxes (primarily VAT and excises) both accounted over a third of the total tax revenue, and income taxes about a quarter. Compared to the EU15 countries, Estonia relies relatively more on indirect taxes and payroll tax. As the economy advances, direct taxes start to play a more significant role.

In connection with the harmonization of tax policy with the EU directives the excise rates of energy products have been continuously raised. Still, there is a large gap between the minimum excise rates valid in Estonia and mandatory in the EU. Transition periods have been established for the majority of energy products until 31 December 2009.

Economic activities that stimulate environmental protection are stable subsidies, mortgage system, natural resource usage and pollution fee. The major environmental fees include a pollution fee, special water use fee and mineral rights fee. Based on economic development and the increased solvency of the population, during the last 10 years the rates of environmental fees have been steadily increased due to tightened environmental requirements and the need to appreciate natural resources.

Figure 2.4.2. Share of GDP by sectors.

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Services Manufacturing Government Agriculture

2.5. Energy and industry profile

2.5.1. Energy profile

Estonia is relatively rich in natural resources, both mineral and biological. In 2003, the share of domestic fuels – oil shale, wood and peat – accounted for 73% of the primary energy resources. Imported fuels (natural gas, fuel oils, coal, motor fuels) made up only 27% of the fuels utilised in 2003. The share of renewable energy sources reached 10.5%, wood fuels formed the major part of it, the proportion of other sources remained on the level of 0.1%. From the energy of primary fuels about 43% was used for electricity production, 24% for heat production, 15% for the

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production of secondary fuels (i.e. shale oil), 2% as raw material in industry and 16% for immediate final consumption.

Figure 2.5.1. Fuels in the supply of primary energy in 2003.Coal0,2%

Peat and wood10,5%

Oil products13,8%

Natural gas12,8%

Oil shale62,7%

In 2003, the production of oil shale amounted to 14.9 million tonnes, which exceeded the output of 1999 by 26%. Oil shale was used as a fuel in the production of electricity and heat, and also in the production of shale oil. More than half of the output of shale oil is exported.

The efficiency of primary energy utilisation (the ratio of final energy consumption to the primary energy used) is relatively low in Estonia, making up about 52% in 2003.

This index is lower than in neighbouring countries mainly because Estonia does not have large hydroelectric plants and over 90% of electric energy is produced by condensing steam power stations whose efficiency is approximately 30%. The efficiency index of the energy sector is reduced also by losses in electricity and district heating networks and by the export of converted energy (electricity, shale oil, peat briquettes and wood chips). The national goal in this field is continuous rise of the efficiency of the energy sector and as efficient as possible use of energy.

Figure 2.5.2. Production of electricity by energy sources in 2003.Natural gas

5,0%Other fuels

2,7%

RES0,2%

Oil-shale92,1%

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In 2003, the production of electricity increased about 23% compared to 1999 mainly due to the exports and domestic consumption. Electricity was exported to Russia and Latvia. As much as 92.1% of electricity was generated on the base of oil shale, 5% from natural gas and the rest 2.9% from other energy sources including peat, shale oil and renewables (wind and hydro energy).

Figure 2.5.3. Electricity balance in 2003.

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

GW

h

ExportsLosses Ow n use by pow er plantsConsumptionImports

The heat production remained on the same level during 1999–2003. Mainly oil shale and natural gas were used in the production of heat. During the last years the share of oil shale in heat production has decreased, at the same time the share of natural gas has increased.

The energy sector is the largest user of water and mineral sources as well the greatest environment polluter in Estonia. Power and heat production based on the combustion of fossil fuels generates most of the emission of pollutants into the atmosphere (CO2, NOx, SO2, NMVOC, etc) and a number of other harmful environmental effects, in particular in mining. The state energy policy must ensure application of proper measures for the reduction of the sector’s environmental impact, for the implementation of environmental protection goals resulting from legal acts, various agreements and conventions.

The primary goal of reducing the pollution level arises from the Estonian Environmental Strategy, according to which the amount of SO2 pollution must be reduced by the year 2005 by 80% compared with the level of 1980 and the amount of particles by 25% compared with year 1995. The pollution amount of nitric compounds had to be stabilized on the level of 1987 by the year 2000; their further reduction is required.

Energy production is extremely wasteful, providing 73% of the total waste generation in Estonia in 2003. Out of 18.4 million tonnes of wastes generated in 2003, 6.3 million tonnes was oil shale combustion ashes and 6.2 million tonnes was mining residuals.

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The energy sector is the main industrial sector in Estonia. Both the energy and the chemical industry are based on oil shale. Approximately 90% of Estonia’s energy is produced through the combustion of fossil fuels. The remaining 10% comes from renewables, such as biomass, hydropower and wind (Energy Balance, 2004).

According to EU legislation, the relevant Estonian legislation was prepared and put into force. Estonian Energy made loans for the renovation of two energy blocks (both 215 MW) for a repayment period of 15 years. The aim of renovation is to go over to a new combustion technology that will be more efficient and environment friendly than the presently used one. Major development directions planned involve expansion of the use of renewable energy sources. The area of forestland has steadily increased from 1 856 800 ha in 1990 to 2 267 300 ha in 2003; total cutting from 3 200 000 m3 to 7 811 000 m3; and total biomass increment from 9 103 400 m3 to 12 254 000 m3gy.

A specific fuel in the Estonian energy sector is oil shale, which made up 62% of the primary energy supply in 2003. Primary energy use and energy consumption by end users have continuously decreased since 1990. The largest decline in energy consumption occurred in industry and agriculture.

Figure 2.5.4. Total primary energy supply in 2003.

Motor fuels11%

Fuel oils3%

Natural gas13%

Wood10%

Others1%

Oil-shale62%

As in the entire Estonian economy, essential changes have taken place in the energy sector during the last years. Both the primary energy demand and the final consumption have decreased almost twice. From 1993 on the level of energy consumption has gradually stabilized. In 1996 about 72% of the primary energy demand was covered by indigenous energy sources. The changes in the energy sector reflect reduction in the country’s industrial output, but energy consumption has also become more economical during the last years.

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Figure 2.5.5. Final energy consumption by sector categories in 2003.

Industry22%

Agriculture4%

Transport16%

Commercial and public services

12%

Households46%

The main fuel used in Estonia is oil shale: 92% of electricity was generated on its basis in 1999. The Estonian oil shale as a fuel is characterized by a high ash content (45–50%), a moderate moisture (11–13%) and sulphur content (1.4–1.8%), a low net calorific value (8.5–9 MJ). The production of oil shale in Estonia peaked in 1980. As a result of replacing oil shale gas with natural gas, the annual production of oil shale fell by 8 million tonnes from 1980 to 1990. The extraction of oil shale decreased further throughout the 1990s and fell to 12 million tonnes by 1999. Also exports and domestic consumption of electricity fell.

Figure 2.5.6. Production and consumption of oil shale.

8

10

12

14

16

18

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

Mill

ion

tons

ProductionConsumed

The primary reason is the continuing decline in demand; besides part of oil shale demand was covered by imports and also stock reserves were reduced.

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Figure 2.5.7. Fuel Consumption in Heat Only Boiler Houses in 2003.Heavy fuel oil

4%Shale oil15%

Peat and biofuels33%

Oil shale1%

Coal2%

Light fuel oil5%

Natural gas40%

According to the long-term development plan of the Estonian energy sector, oil shale will remain Estonia’s largest source of energy in the near future.

The share of natural gas will increase significantly, mostly due to the low environmental impact of this fuel. Its share in the primary energy balance is expected to increase twofold in the next 10–15 years. Estonia has developed a network for natural gas linking the largest towns and industrial centres and covering around 70% of the Estonian population.

The energy sector is largest user of water and mineral resources as well generator of waste in Estonia. Power and heat production based on the combustion of fossil fuels (oil shale, heavy fuel oil and natural gas) and imported motor fuels is responsible for the major share of national GHG emissions, particulates and VOCs. Oil shale mining and burning put severe strains on the environment, giving about 81% of the total harmful emissions in Estonia.

Figure 2.5.8. Harmful emissions in Estonia.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Thou

sand

tons

Nitrogen oxides

Solid particles

Sulphur dioxide

In 1999, a new economic instrument to limit CO2 emissions was introduced in Estonia. On 21 March 1999 the Act on Pollution Charges entered into force, introducing pollution charges for the release of CO2 into ambient air – 0.32 EUR/t in 2000 and 0.48 EUR/t from 2001 onward.

Energy production is also extremely wasteful, providing 73% of the total waste production in 2003. Out of more than 18 million tonnes of wastes generated in 2003, 6 million tonnes was oil shale combustion ashes and 6 million tonnes was mining residuals.

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Figure 2.5.9. Industrial production by economic activity.

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1995 2000 2001 2002 2003

Energy supply Mining Manufacturing

2.5.2. Transport

Estonian transportation policy is characterised by wide-scale privatization of operation services and infrastructure. The Estonian government approved the “Transport development framework 1999–2006” to specify the sector’s problems, development demands and measures. The majority of investments are planned to priority areas such as modernization of pan-European transportation corridors and renovation of domestic junctions. While implementing structural changes in the transportation sector, emphasis was on privatisation of railway companies. In order to increase the competitiveness of the relatively weak public transportation system, it is planned to develop a national public transportation framework and ensure its implementation. National and local governments subsidise public transportation, purchase of public transport vehicles, construction or renovation of public transportation infrastructure and public transportation research. In the period 1990–2003 the number of passenger cars increased significantly. At the same time the consumption of motor fuels in the transport sector decreased from 37.1 PJ in 1990 to 30.2 PJ in 2003 thanks to the increasing share of new and more economical vehicles. The share of public transport in the volume of passenger traffic in 2003 had decreased by 60% compared to 1990. Passenger kilometres by bus and rail have decreased 50–80%, mainly due to reorganisation of the previously state-owned transport enterprises and the boom in the use and numbers of privately owned cars.

Figure 2.5.10. Car ownership.

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Num

ber (

thou

sand

)

The growing number of cars has an easily measurable effect on air quality, energy consumption, noise emissions and road use intensity and requires more road infrastructure in the future.

37

3. INVENTORIES OF ANTHROPOGENIC EMISSIONS AND REMOVALS OF GREENHOUSE GASES

38

3.1. Introduction

This chapter provides information on greenhouse gas emissions and removals by sink in Estonia for the years 1990 – 2003. Data for 1990 are assumed as a reference and used for comparison for the purposes of highlighting international commitments of Estonia to reduce GHG emissions. Data of GHG emissions are taken from annual CRF inventory reports of Estonia under the UNFCCC.

Six gases play a key role in contributing to the intensification of the greenhouse effect: carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFC's), perfluorocarbons (PFC's) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6). The most important of them are carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide.

According to the IPCC reporting guidelines on national communications, information on all other gases whose 100-year global warming potential (GWP) values have been identified by the IPCC and adopted by the COP should be included to the national inventory.

In the Estonian's inventory is also included carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx) and non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs). These compounds have an indirect effect on the climate change - for example, by increasing the atmospheric life of methane. Their relative and absolute contribution to the climate change is uncertain. This chapter also reports Estonia's emissions of sulphur oxides (SO2). Sulphur gases - primarily SO2 - are believed to contribute negatively to the greenhouse effect.

The Fourth National Communication should include GHG inventories of the years 2000, 2001 and 2002 according to the base year 1990. In reality the current inventory covers the whole period from 1990 to 2003, including also the years for which inventories have been reported but are now recalculated. The purpose of all recalculations is the improvement of accuracy and completeness. Now, the inventory of all years is estimated using the same methodology, adjusted statistical data and emission factors.

3.2. Trends of Estonia’s greenhouse gas emissions

The total anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions without land-use change and forestry in Estonia in 2003 were 21.387 million tons of CO2 eq (about 51% under the greenhouse gas emissions of the 1990 baseline level). The land-use change and forestry sector has constituted a net sink during the whole period of 1990-2003. In 2003 the size if Estonia’s net sink was estimated to be 8.72 million tons of CO2 equivalents. Following figures illustrate the overall trends in the Estonia’s greenhouse gas emissions by sector and gas (Figure 3.2.1, Figure 3.2.2), as well the GHG removals by sinks (Figure 3.2.3). Summary CRF tables of annual inventory submissions are attached in annexes of this report.

39

Figure 3.2.1. Estonia’s greenhouse gas emissions (excluding land-use change and forestry) by sector in 1990-2003.

-10 000

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Gg

CO 2

equ

ival

ents

1. Energy 2. Industrial Processes 4. Agriculture 5. Land-Use Change and Forestry (7) 6. Waste

Figure 3.2.2. CO2 removals by sinks in Estonia 1990-2003.

CO2 removals by LUCF

-12 000

-10 000

-8 000

-6 000

-4 000

-2 000

01990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Gg

CO 2 e

quiv

alen

t

40

Figure 3.2.3. Estonia’s greenhouse gas emissions (excluding land-use change and forestry) by gases 1990-2003.

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

45 000

50 000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Gg

CO 2 e

quiv

alen

t

CO2 emissions (w ithout LUCF) CH4 N2O

Figure 3.2.4. Per cent variation in Estonia’s greenhouse gas emissions since 1990 (excluding land-use change and forestry).

0,0

20,0

40,0

60,0

80,0

100,0

120,0

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

%

41

In Figure 3.2.4 the total emissions in proportion to emission of the year 1990 are presented. In 1993 the total GHG emission stated drastically decreases in Estonia, achieving in 1999 the lowest value, only 45% comparing with the 1990. In 2003 the total emissions of GHG were slightly grown, but are still lower than 50% of the total GHG emissions of the 1990.

Figure 3.2.5. Estonia’s greenhouse gas emissions (without LULUCF) per capita and per gross domestic product.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Inde

x (1

990=

100)

Emissions per capitaEmissions per GDP

In Figure 3.2.5 the emissions of carbon dioxide per capita and per GDP are presented. Estonia is one of the biggest emitters of carbon dioxide per capita in Europe. In 2002, 14.3 tons of carbon dioxide per capita (without LULUCF) was emitted in Estonia, while the European Union (EU25) average was only about 9 t per capita. It is important to point out that while in EU CO2 emission per capita has been almost stable, then in Estonia it started to increase since 1990. The CO2 emission per capita was in 1990 about 27.7 tons per capita, it means, that the reduction has been almost 49%.

The amount of total GHG emissions follows the development trend of primary energy supply in Estonia. Intensity of CO2 emission reflects the contribution of the economy and whole society to the global warming. The CO2/GDP indicator is defined as the amount of CO2 emitted in the country to generate a unit of GDP. The intensity of CO2 emissions decreased during the 1990 to 2002 almost by 50% in Estonia (see Figure 3.2.5). Nevertheless, the Estonia’s carbon intensity indicator per GDP distinguishes from other countries exceeding the average EU25 value of this indicator about 3.5 times. It means, that despite to the mentioned before perceivable GDP growth (about 62%) during the last ten years, is the amount of TPES (and accompanied emission of CO2) used for generation of a unit of GDP still to high. This is mainly related to the high-energy intensity of economy in general and carbon intensive structure of total primary energy supply.

42

3.3. Methodology and uncertainties

3.3.1 Uncertainties

Estonias’s greenhouse gas inventory is compiled in accordance with UNFCCC Reporting Guidelines on annual inventories, to the extent possible. Emissions and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases from various sources have been estimated using methodologies that are consistent with the Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories.. The approach to estimate the uncertainties of the Estonia’s inventory is at present based entirely on expert judgement. The unsertanty of activity data could differ from 10% up to 25% depending on the sector and years. In the early 1990s, unsertanties were much higer than in resent years. The total uncertainty of the inventory for the year 2003 has in this preliminary assessment been estimated to be around ±10%. In the future more resources will be allocated to the development of better quantitative uncertainty estimates.

Each year Estonia attempts to improve the inventory estimates through the use of better methods and data, taking into account the development in the IPCC methodologies and UNFCCC reporting requirements as well the country experts sugsessions. The required changes and improvements mean that recalculations and revised estimates on historical inventory data are needed in order to maintain the consistency in the time series.

Estonia’s greenhouse gas inventory is compiled in accordance with UNFCCC Reporting Guidelines on annual inventories, to the extent possible. Emissions and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases from various sources have been estimated using methodologies that are consistent with Revised 1996 IPCC guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories.

3.3.2. Fuel combustion - general method

Emissions from all sources of combustion are estimated on the basis of the quantities of fuel consumed and average emission factors. The IPCC Reference Approach for CO2 is presented together with new methods for the estimation of CO2 and non-CO2 emissions from the main source categories.Bunker Fuels. The IPCC methodology subtracts the quantities delivered to and consumed by ships or aircraft for international transport from the fuel supply to the country. The CO2

emissions arising from use of international bunkers are not included in the national total and should be brought together in a separate table.Biomass Fuels. Biomass fuels are included in the national energy and emissions account for completeness. These emissions should not be included in national CO2 emissions from fuel consumption.

CO2 from fuel combustion activities - reference approach

The IPCC methodology breaks of CO2 emissions from fuel combustion into six steps:• estimate apparent fuel consumption in original units;• convert to common energy unit;• multiply by emission factors to compute the carbon content;• compute carbon stored;• correct for carbon unoxidised;• convert carbon oxidised to CO2 emissions.

43

The apparent consumption of primary fuels is calculated as follows:

Apparent Consumption = Production + Imports - International Bunkers - Stock Change

Apparent consumption of secondary fuels should be added to primary apparent consumption. Apparent consumption of secondary fuels is calculated as follows:

Apparent Consumption = Imports - Exports - International Bunkers - Stock Change

The basic formula for estimating total carbon content is:

Total Carbon Content (GgC) = Σ Apparent Energy Consumption (by fuel type in TJ) x Carbon Emission Factor (by fuel type in tC/TJ) x 10-3

CO2 emissions by source categories

A sectoral breakdown of national CO2 emissions using the defined IPCC source categories is needed for monitoring and abatement policy discussions. The more detailed calculations used for this approach are essentially similar in content to those used for the Reference Approach. The formula is:

Carbon Emissions = Σ Fuel Consumption Expressed in Energy Units (TJ) for Each Sector x Carbon Emission Factor - Carbon Stored x Fraction OxidisedThere are seven key considerations calculating CO2 emissions by sector some of which have already been discussed in the Reference Approach:• identification of the quantities of fuels consumed (combusted) in energy industries;• a clear understanding of how emissions from electricity generation and heat are treated;• identification of the fraction of carbon released during the use of fuels for non-energy

purposes;• adjustment for carbon unoxidised;• identification of the quantities of fuels used for international transport;• separation of the emissions from the combustion of biofuels;• separation of the quantities of fuels used in the Agriculture/Forestry/Fisheries between mobile

sources and stationary plant.

CO2 from fuel combustion by source categories are calculated by IPCC Guidelines (1996) for:• energy Industry;• manufacturing Industries and Construction;• transport Sector;• commercial/Institutional Sector;• residential Sector;agriculture/Forestry/Fisheries.

44

Non-CO2 from fuel combustion by source categories

Methane (CH4) emissions from fuel combustionThe general method for estimating CH4 can be described as:

Emissions = Σ (Efab x Activityab) (1.3.2.1)where: EF - Emission Factor (kg/TJ) (Table 1-7 (IPCC Guidelines, 1996));

Activity - Energy Input (TJ);a - fuel type;b - sector-activity.

Nitrous Oxide (N2O) emissions from fuel combustionNitrous oxide is produced directly from the combustion of fossil fuel. By combustion at the temperature below 800 K or over 1200 K the emissions of N2O are negligible. Compared to emissions from conventional stationary combustion units, emissions of nitrous oxides from fluidised bed combustion are relatively high.N2O emissions can be calculated with formula (1.3.2.1). N2O Emission Factors from Table 1-8 were used (IPCC Guidelines, 1996).

Nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions from fuel combustionNitrogen oxides are indirect greenhouse gases. Fuel combustion activities are the most significant anthropogenic source of NOx. Within fuel combustion, the most important sources are the energy industries and mobile sources.NOx emissions can be calculated with formula (1.3.2.1). NOx. Emission Factors from Table 1-9 were used (IPCC Guidelines, 1996).

Carbon monoxide (CO) emissions from fuel combustionCarbon monoxide is an indirect greenhouse gas. The majority of CO emissions from fuel combustion come from motor vehicles. Another large contributor is the residential sector with small combustion equipment.CO emissions can be calculated with formula (1.3.2.1). CO Emission Factors from Table 1-10 were used (IPCC Guidelines, 1996).

Non-Methane Volatile Organic Compounds (NMVOC) emissions from fuel combustionNMVOC are indirect greenhouse gases. The most important sources NMVOCs from fuel combustion activities are mobile sources and residential combustion (especially biomass combustion).NMVOC emissions can be calculated with formula (1.3.2.1). NMVOC Emission Factors from Table 1-11 were used (IPCC Guidelines, 1996).

45

Sulphur dioxide (SO2) emissions from fuel combustionSulphur dioxide is not a greenhouse gas but its presence in the atmosphere may influence climate. SO2 emissions can be calculated with formula (1.3.2.1). The SO2 Emission Factors can be estimated (Greenhouse ... Workbook, Vol. 3, 1996) as:

EFSO2 (kg/TJ) = 2 x S x 10-2 x Q-1 x 106 x (100-r) x 10-2 x (100-n) x 10-2 where: EF - Emission Factor (kg/TJ);

SO2 - SO2/S (kg/kg);S - Sulphur content in fuel (%);r - Retention of sulphur in ash (%);Q - Net calorific value (TJ/kt);106 - (Unit) conversion factor;n - Efficiency of abatement technology and/or reduction efficiency (%).

In Estonia the oil shale power plants are the biggest source of SO2. The medium sulphur content of oil shale is 1.7% and the medium sulphur retention in ash is about 75% (Yu.Rundygin et.al., Oil Shale, 1997). In 2004 two reconstructed energy blocks (215 MWel each) were launched (block no. 8 of Estonian Power Plant and block no. 11 of Baltic Power Plant). The new cleaner circulating fluidised bed combustion technology was used. The first results of measurements show that the sulphur retention rate in ash is 99%.

3.3.3. GHG emissions from mobile sources

The basic calculation for estimating greenhouse gases emissions can be expressed as:

Emissions = Σ (EFabc x Activityabc)where: EF - emission factor;

Activity - amount of energy consumed or distance travelled for a given mobile source activity;

a - fuel type (diesel, gasoline, LPG, bunker, etc.);b - vehicle type (e.g. passenger, light-duty or heavy-duty for road

vehicles);c - emission control.

For estimation of mobile sources in Estonia are not any emission factors. For emission calculations were used emission factors from IPCC Guidelines (Greenhouse ... Workbook, Vol. 3, 1996).

3.3.4. Feedstock’s and non-energy use of fuels

All fossil fuels are used for non-energy purposes to some degree. For the IPCC Reference Approach, the suggested formula for estimating carbon stored in products for each country is:

Total Carbon Stored (GgC) = Non-Energy Use (103 t) x Conversion Factor (TJ/103t) x Emission Factor (tC/TJ) x Fraction Carbon Stored x 10-3

46

Currently the fraction stored applied to the Carbon from the use or destruction of the products in short term. The fraction is therefore lower than the fraction of carbon entering the products. The emissions resulting from the use or destruction of the products may occur in:industrial processes - both the production of non-fuel products from energy feedstock, and the emission from use of these products in industrial processes;other end uses of products (e.g., lubricants oxidised in transportation);waste disposal - particularly incineration of plastics and other fossil fuels based products.

In Estonia shale oil is produced from oil shale in internal combustion vertical retort and in solid heat carrier retorting units. In thermal processing of Estonian oil shale in internal combustion vertical retort semi coke is formed. The semi coke has the considerable calorific value. Up to now the oil shale semi coke has not used and is deposited in spent shale dumps. Analyses show that the energy of semi coke forms about 21% from consumption of oil shale energy for conversion to shale oil. In solid heat carrier retorting units practically all energy of oil shale semi coke is utilised. Crude shale oil is used as a fuel in medium and small boilers. The crude shale oil has low solidification point (-10°C), a moderate sulphur content S<0.8% (2002 - 0.62%) and ash residue content is below 0.3%. The calorific value of shale oil is 39.0÷40.0 MJ/kg (2002 - 39.08 MJ/kg).

Carbon Unoxidised During Fuel UseA small part of the fuel carbon entering combustion escapes oxidation. It is assumed that the carbon that remains unoxidised is stored indefinitely. The IPCC recommended that 1 per cent of the carbon in fossil fuels would remain unoxidised. From the available information a single global default assumption of 1 per cent unoxidised carbon is not always accurate. The Reference Approach requires data only on the amount of fuels consumed in a country, not data by technology type or sector of the economy Recommended values of Fraction of Carbon Oxidised are: coal (0.91÷) 0.98, oil and oil products - 0.99 , gas - 0.995 , peat for electricity generation - 0.99. Fugitive Emissions from Solid Fuels. Oil and Natural Gas.

Methane emissions from oil shale mining and handling activities

This section covers fugitive emissions of greenhouse gases from production, processing, handling and utilisation of coal. In Estonia only oil shale is mined and burned for energy generation and shale oil production. For approximate estimations of fugitive emissions from oil shale mining and handling were used methods suggested in IPCC Guidelines for coal.

The structure of the CH4 emissions from mining (underground and surface mining) and post mining activities (underground and surface mining) is (Greenhouse ... Workbook, Vol. 3, 1996):

CH4 emissions (Gg) = CH4 Emission Factor (m3 CH4/ton of oil shale mined) x Oil Shale Production (Mt) x Conversion Factor (Gg/106 m3)

Conversion Factor converts the volume of CH4 to a weight measure and is the density of methane at 20°C and 1 atmosphere, namely 0.67 Gg/106 m3. The emission factors (m3 CH4/t) for underground and surface mining and for post-mining activities of oil shale were received from local specialists - geologists of oil shale. The emission factors (m3CH4/t) for oil shale are:

a) underground mines: mining - 2.0 , post-mining - 0.2 and b) surface mines: mining - 0.3 , post-mining - 0.1.

47

Fugitive emissions from shale oil and natural gas activities

Sources of fugitive emissions within oil and gas systems include releases during normal operation, such as emissions associated with venting and flaring, chronic leaks or discharge from process vents, emissions during maintenance, and emissions during system upsets and accidents. In Estonia liquid fossil fuels and natural gas are mainly imported. Only shale oil is produced in Estonia.

The equation for calculating CH4 emissions from oil and gas activities is:

CH4 Emissions (Gg CH4) ={Activity (PJ) x Emission Factor (kg CH4/PJ)}/106

Emission factors of oil and gas activities are estimated on bases of dates in Table 1-8 IPCC Guidelines 1996 and on bases of expert meaning of specialists from Oil Shale Institute in Kohtla-Järve. CH4 emission factors for fugitive emissions from oil and gas activities are given in Table A.7.

3.3.5. Burning traditional biomass fuels

For all burning of biomass fuels, IPCC Guidelines requires that net CO2 emissions are treated as zero in the energy sector. Non-CO2 gases are emitted from burning of biomass fuels. Emissions of methane, carbon monoxide, nitrous oxide, and oxides of nitrogen are net emissions and are accounted for as energy emissions.Step 1: The general equation for estimating carbon emissions is:

Carbon Released from Biomass Fuel = Total Biomass Consumed (kt dm) x Fraction Oxidised x Carbon Fraction

Step 2: Non-CO2 trace gas emissions from burning calculation is summarised as follows:CH4 Emissions = Carbon Released x Emission Ratio x 16/12CO Emissions = Carbon Released x Emission Ratio x 28/12N2O Emissions = Carbon Released x N/C Ratio x Emission Ratio x 44/28NOx Emissions = Carbon Released x N/C Ratio x Emission Ratio x 46/14

In Estonia only wood is used as the biomass fuel. All calculations of emissions from burning Estonian biomass (wood) fuel are carried out using constant from IPCC Guidelines.

3.3.6. International bunkers and multilateral operations

In Energy Balance of Statistical Office of Estonia quantities of delivered fuel for marine bunkers are given. There are no statistical data of fuels used in international air transport. Therefore calculations of emissions from international bunkers are carried out only for international marine transport by methodology (Greenhouse ... Workbook, Vol. 2 and 3, 1996).

48

3.3.7. Industrial processes

Cement manufacturing

Carbon dioxide emitted during the cement production process represents the most important source of global carbon dioxide emissions from industry.The equation for calculation CO2 emissions from cement manufacturing is:

CO2 Emissions (Gg CO2) = {Cement Production (t) x Emission Factor(t CO2/t cement)}/1000

The IPCC Guidelines (1994, 1995, ...) recommended method assumes the average CaO content of cement to be 63.5%, which gives on emission factor of 0.4985 CO2/t cement.

Lime manufacturing

For calculation CO2 emissions from lime manufacturing could be used the formula of CO2

emissions from cement production. Emission factor of CO2 for lime manufacturing is taken equal to molecular weight ratio of CO2/CaO = 44/56 = 0.7857

3.3.8. Agriculture

The methodology (Tier 1) used in the “Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories”. Activity data is mainly based on official Estonian statistics, provided by the Statistical Office of Estonia. We used default emission factors for the calculations.

Agriculture contributes to emissions of greenhouse gases in a variety of ways. IPCC guidelines discuss the following emissions:

• CH4 emissions from stockbreeding (enteric fermentation and manure or liquid manure management)

• Emissions of N2O and CH4 from agricultural soils

The two most important gases emitted from agricultural activities in Estonia are methane and nitrous oxide.

Methane

Emissions from enteric fermentation and manure management are calculated according to IPCC methodology (Tier 1) (Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories), since 2003 mainly emission factors for the developed countries and Western Europe are used (Table 3.3.1; 3.3.2).

49

Table 3.3.1. Enteric fermentation methane emission factors

Enteric Fermentation Emission factor,kg CH4/animal/yr Reference of source

Dairy Cattle 100 IPCC Non-Dairy Cattle 48 IPCC Sheep 8 IPCC Goats 5 IPCC Horses 18 IPCC Swine 1.5 IPCC Poultry 0 IPCC

Annual quantities of decomposable organic matter have been estimated on the basis of data that were used in calculating emissions from enteric fermentation. IPCC methods (1997) have been applied.

Table 3.3.2. Manure management methane emission factors

Manure management Emission factor,kg/head/yr

Reference of source

Dairy Cattle 14.0 IPCC Non-dairy Cattle 6.0 IPCC Sheep 0.19 IPCC Goats 0.12 IPCC Horses 1.4 IPCC Swine 3.0 IPCC Poultry 0.08 IPCC

Nitrous oxide

The methodology of calculating emissions of nitrous oxide from agricultural soils as put forward in the chapter Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Agricultural Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories) determines two sources of emission of N2O into environment, namely direct and indirect emissions. In calculations IPCC methodologies and emission factors are used.

Major sources of nitrogen, causing direct and indirect emissions of nitrous oxide into the atmosphere, are the following: - mineral fertilizers- organic fertilizers (manure and liquid manure) from animal husbandry- animal faeces and urine excreted in pasture- biological fixation of nitrogen- crop residue- cultivation of high-organic content (peat) soil- volatilization of ammonia and nitrogen oxides (NOx) - nitrogen leaching and surface runoff/drainage into surface waters, groundwater, and water

watercourses.

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Nitrous oxide emitted from urine and faeces of grazing animals in the pasture is attributed to emissions from agricultural soils. Emissions of nitrous oxide have been estimated on the basis of data on the number of domestic animals in Estonia (see Table 3.3.3). Calculations are made on the basis of IPCC Guidelines (1997).

Table 3.3.3. Nitrogen excretion for animal waste management system

Manure managementNitrogen excretion

kg/head/yr

Reference of source

Non-Dairy Cattle 50 IPCC Dairy Cattle 70 IPCC Poultry 0.6 IPCC Sheep 16 IPCC Swine 20 IPCC Others 25 IPCC

3.3.9. Waste

In the waste sector 2 sources are the key sources, where the emission amounts are calculated: − Solid waste disposal (landfills) (6 A);− Wastewater handling (6 B).

The most important gas emitted from waste management activities in Estonia is methane.

IPCC Tier 1 method (default method) is used for CH4 emissions calculation.

where:CH4emission – annual methane emission (Gg);MSWL - annual MSW landfilled (Gg);MCF – CH4 correction factor, depends on waste disposal site type;Managed sites – 1 Unmanaged >5m – 0.8Unmanaged <5m – 0.4DOC – degradable organic carbon (0.17);DOCF – fraction of DOC dissimilated (0.6);F – fraction of CH4 landfill gas (0.5);R – recovered CH4 (average is 2,35 Gg).

The data for annual amounts of mixed solid waste landfilled is taken from the Estonian Environment Information Centre. This data is available from year 1993, before that the amount was calculated. For emission calculations are taken into consideration the managed landfills.

The calculations are for two basic types of wastewater handling:Domestic and comercial wastewaterIndustrial wastewater

The calculations about industrial wastewater and sludge handling are for 2 types of industries:Food and beverage

CH4emission= MSWL*MCF*DOC*DOCF*F*16/12 – R

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Paper and pulpEmissions of CH4 from domestic wastewater handling systems are estimated by using the IPCC method (special table for calculations) and the default emission factors:

DOC – degradable organic carbon (18,250 kg BOD/1000 person/yr);Fraction of wastewater treated by the handling system (0.8);MCF – methane conversion factor for the handling system (0.6).

3.3.10. Forestry

Forest stands, which cover about 47.3% of Estonian land area, contain a large part of the carbon stored on land in the form of biomass. Because approximately half the dry mass of wood is carbon, as trees add mass to their stems, branches, and roots, more carbon is accumulated and stored in the trees than is released to the atmosphere through respiration and decay. Soils and vegetative cover in forest also provide a potential sink for carbon. As forestry is an important branch of Estonian economy (the share of forestry related goods in total export was approximately 12% in 2004), the natural carbon balance of Estonian forests is strongly affected by forest management activities.

According to the Forest Act (RT I 1998, 113/114, 1872), the responsibility for inventorying the sate of Estonian forests lies with the MoE. Regulated by the Official Statistics Act (RT I, 1997, 51, 822), the inventory data are summarised and published by the Statistical Office of Estonia (SOE). These official data (Table 3.3.4), closely corresponding to the requirements of IPCC Guidelines (1996), are the core of the calculations of CO2 removals and emissions in the forestry sector. The volume data were converted to biomass (tons of dry mass, t dm) using default conversion factors (0.65 t dm m-3 for deciduous trees and 0.45 t dm m-3 for coniferous trees) suggested by IPCC Guidelines (1996). The proportion of coniferous forests was found from the species composition data. Part of tops, branches and stumps, taken as 35%, was added to volume data of growing stock increment. A default value of IPCC Guidelines (1996) for biomass carbon fraction (0.45) has been used throughout the calculations.

Table 3.3.4. List of the forest inventory data used as input in the calculations of CO2

removals and emissions in the forestry sector

Area of forest stands, thousands haSpecies composition of forests standsAnnual increment of growing stock, m3 ha-1

Total cuttings, m3

3.4. CO2 emissions and removals

Carbon dioxide is one of the most important greenhouse gases, accounting more than 50% of global warming. Like almost everywhere in the word, anthropogenic sources of CO2 in Estonia are fossil fuel combustion (in energy industries for heat and power generation, manufacturing, transport and other sectors, etc) and industrial activities.

Table 3.4.1. summarises the changes in Estonian emissions and uptakes of carbon dioxide in 2003 against the base year 1990.

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Table 3.4.1. Sources of carbon dioxide emissions, GgSource/Sink CO2 emissions

1990 2003Energy SectorA. Total fuel consumption activities 37494 18830

Energy industries 29753 15855Manufacturing 2655 420Transport 2693 2146Residential 1556 202Agriculture 387 95Commercial 450 112

B. Industrial processes 614 276Cement production 468 252Lime production 146 24

Total CO2 emissions 38108 19106Land-use change and forestry -6320 -8717Total net emissions 31788 10389

3.4.1. Energy

Approximately 90% of Estonia’s energy is produced through the combustion of fossil fuels. The remaining 10 per cent comes from renewable, such as biomass, hydropower, and wind (Energy Balance, 2004).

As they burn, fossil fuels emit CO2 due to oxidation of the carbon in the fuel. The amount of carbon in fossil fuels varies significantly by fuel type. For example, oil shale contains the highest amount of carbon per unit of energy, while natural gas has about 47 per cent less carbon. Annex I contains data about carbon emission factors and oxidation factors of different fuels used in Estonia.

The Estonia’s GHG inventory includes carbon dioxide emissions from all fossil fuel consumption. Carbon dioxide emissions from biomass and biomass-based fuel consumption are reported, but are not included in the national total.

Fossil fuel consumption

In 2003, Estonia emitted 18,830 Gg of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel combustion, what corresponds to 98% of the total CO2 emissions. (Bunker fuels, used for international transport, accounted for an additional 355 Gg of CO2). The energy-related activities producing these emissions from following sub-sectors: energy industries, manufacturing industries and construction, transport, other sectors (incl. commercial, residential and agriculture), including production, transmission, storage and distribution of fossil fuels, diesel and gasoline consumption in automobiles and other vehicles, heating in residential and commercial buildings, steam production for industry, and generation of electricity (see Table 3.4.1).

Figure 3.4.2 shows the share of each sector to the total carbon dioxide emission. The biggest polluter is energy industry sector, accounting for 84% of Estonia’s total CO2 emissions.

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Figure 3.4.1. Total primary energy supply in 2003.

Natural Gas13%

Wood10%

Others1%

Fuel Oils3%

Motor Fuels11%

Oil Shale62%

Figure 3.4.2. Carbon dioxide emissions by sectors, 2003.

Transport11%

Manufacturing2%

Energy Industries

84%

Agriculture1%

Commercial

1%Residental

1%

Estonia satisfies most of its energy demand (Figure 3.4.1), and approximately 62% of CO2

emissions from combustion of oil shale the remaining 38% come from natural gas (13%), motor fuels (gasoline and diesel oil, 11%), renewables (mainly wood, 10%), fuel oils (light fuel oil, heavy fuel oil and shale oil, 3%) and other fuels (coal, coke, 1%) (Figure 3.4.3).

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Figure 3.4.3. CO2 emissions by energy sources, 2003.

Oil Shale72%

Motor fuels12%

Fuel oils5%

Peat2%

Natural Gas 8%

Others1%

3.4.2 Transport sector

The transport sector is the second largest source of carbon dioxide in Estonia. Table 3.4.1 shows that in 2003 emissions from the transport sector made up 2147 Gg, accounting for about 11% (Figure 3.4.2) of the Estonia’s CO2 emissions and being for 21% less than in 1990 (when the corresponding figure was 2693 Gg).

Transport sector includes the emissions from fuel combustion for the transport of passengers and freight in four distinct sub-sectors: road transport; aviation; railways and navigation.

As it follows from the Figure 3.4.4 road transport is responsible for 90% of CO2 emissions in the transport sector. It could be explained by the fact that according to the statistics in 2003 about 97% of inland passengers use road transport, 2% railway and only 0.6 marine and 0,01 air transport (Development, 2005). For goods transport 70% was made by railways and about 29% by road (Statistical Yearbook, 2004).

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Figure 3.4.4. Carbon dioxide emissions by transport sector sub-sectors in 20031.

Navigation1%

Railways6%

Road Transportati

on90%

Civil Aviation3%

Table 3.4.2. Total number of cars, fuel consumption and CO2 emission of the transportation sector

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003Total cars (thousand) 316 355 389 398 456 485 511 534 538 546 552 493 487 523incl. passenger cars 241 261 283 317 338 383 406 428 451 459 464 407 401 434Fuel2

consumption, PJ 37.1 42.1 20.7 23.6 21.1 15.3 14.5 17.8 18.8 16.8 14.3 27.1 30.6 30.2CO2 emissions, Gg 2693 3078 1497 1713 1522 1102 1047 1212 1251 1203 1030 1921 2175 2147

As it follows from the Table 3.4.2 and Figure 3.4.5, in the period 1990-2003 the number of passenger cars increased significantly. At the same time the consumption of motor fuels in the transport sector decreased from 37.1 PJ in 1990 to 30.2 PJ in 2003 due to the increasing share of new and more economical vehicles. While in 1995 the number of new registered cars was only 3091 then in 2005 already 15 824 (increase five times more).

1 Data source: Common Reporting Format for the provision of inventory information by Annex I Parties to the UNFCCC . Estonia 2003, submission 2004. Table 1. Sectoral Report for Energy.2 Including motor fuels used in agriculture and since 2001 also motor fuels used in households (by private cars)

56

Figure 3.4.5. Total numbers of motor vehicles in 1990-2003.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500Thousand vehicles

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

PassengercarsBuses andtrucsMotorcycles

The decrease of the total number of passenger cars during the period 2001-2002 was actually caused by updating the motor vehicle register in the Estonian Motor Vehicle Registration Centre. That means that according to the new Traffic Act the data on vehicles which had not past regular technical inspection procedure and were actually not circulating in the traffic, were deleted from the register. Since 2003 the total number of passenger cars has been increasing (Figure 3.4.5) again due to purchase of new cars (Statistical…, 2004).

3.4.3. Industrial processes

This category comprises emissions from industrial processes where CO2 is a direct product of those processes. In Estonian industry emissions of carbon dioxide are realised mainly by cement and lime production.

By thermal processing of calcium carbonate (CaCO3) from limestone, chalk or other calcium-rich materials, calcium oxide (CaO) and carbon dioxide (CO2) are formed.

In 2003 CO2 emissions from industrial processes were approximately 276 Gg, which accounts for about 1.4 per sent of total CO2 emissions. In 1990 (base year) it was 614 Gg respectively, accounting for 6 per sent of Estonia's total emissions of CO2.

57

Figure 3.4.6. Main sources of CO2 emissions from industrial processes.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Gg

Cement productionLime production

Considerable decrease of CO2 emissions in the industrial sector since 1992 was caused by the reduction of cement and lime production in mid 90ies. From 1998 onwards the production amounts of minerals have been growing, particularly in cement industry, which is characterised also by increased CO2 emissions. From 2002 a small decease of cement production can be noticed again (see Figure 3.4.6). The amounts of CO2 emitted in 2003 are only 45% of the respective data of 1990.

3.4.4. GHG budget in land use sectors

Since 1990, the base year of GHG budget (Table 3.4.3), considerable changes have occurred in Estonian forestry sector. The area of forestland has steadily increased from 1,856,800 ha in 1990 to 2,267,300 ha in 2003; total cutting from 3,200,000 m3 to 7,811,000 m3; and stem volume increment from 9,103,400 m3 to 12,254,000 m3 (Figure 3.4.7). These changes have affected the removals and emissions of CO2 by forests. The increase in total cutting has caused higher CO2

emissions in 2003 as compared with 1990. The increase in CO2 emissions due to more extensive cuttings has partly been mitigated by greater growing stock increment in the second half of the period. Thus, net removals of CO2 have steadily increased (Figure 3.4.8). Faster growth of forests can be explained with the changes in age structure and species composition of forest stands. Due to extensive cutting of mature coniferous stands, the relative part of deciduous tree species has increased. Also, abandoned agricultural lands, which have been partly added to forestland, have naturally covered with young fast-growing birch and grey alder stands.

58

Table 3.4.3. Forest resources and CO2 removals/emissions in land use and forestry sector 1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003

Area of managed forests, thousand ha 1875 1850 2115 2091 2052 2113Total increment, thousand t dm 7391 6774 9780 10273 10080 10417Total cutting, thousand t dm 1664 1986 5414 6113 6402 6640Total removals by forests, Gg CO2 12193 12571 14380 18571 18200 18704Total emission by forests, Gg CO2 2821 3325 5553 10123 10600 10954

Total emissions from soils, Gg CO2 3053 1410 463 -967 -967 -967Net CO2 balance, Gg -6319 -7782 -8364 -9415 -8567 -8717

Figure 3.4.7. Dynamics of forest stand area, growing stock increment, and total cutting in

Estonia in 1990–2003.

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Fore

st in

crem

ent/c

uttin

g, x

1000

m

3

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Are

a, k

ha

Area Increment Cutting

Figure 3.4.8. Net CO2 removals by forests, Gg.-10000

-9000

-8000

-7000

-6000

-5000

-40001990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

CO

2, G

g

59

The forest and grassland conversion has had only marginal effect on CO2 emissions in Estonia—the amount of CO2 released has fluctuated from 35 to 75 Gg during the period of 1990 to 2003. Since 2001, CO2 emissions from forest conversion have not been estimated anymore because cutting data already include information about biomass clearings on forestland. Thus, separate calculations of CO2 emissions from forest conversion would yield overestimated values of total CO2 emissions. Twenty-year total area abandoned and regrowing has been found as the difference between the area of forestland 20 years ago and the current area of forestland. Twenty-year total area abandoned ranges from 197,999 ha in 1995 to 325,100 ha in 1999 and CO2 uptake by regrowth fluctuates between 1,339.5 and 2,295.9 Gg.

3.5. CH4 emissions

Atmospheric methane (CH4) is second only to carbon dioxide as an anthropogenic source of the greenhouse effect. Methane's overall contribution to global warming is significant because it is 21 times (counting either direct or both direct and indirect effects) more effective at trapping heat in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide over a one hundred year time horizon.

Methane's concentration in the atmosphere has more than doubled over the last two centuries. These atmospheric increases are largely due to increasing emissions from anthropogenic sources, such as landfills, agricultural activities, fossil fuel combustion, coal mining, the production and processing of natural gas and oil, and wastewater treatment.

In Estonia, the major sources of methane are energy, agriculture and waste management sectors.

Figure 3.5.1. Methane emissions by main sources, Gg.

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

210

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

WasteAgriculture Energy

Total methane (CH4) emissions for the period 1990-2003 are presented in the Table 3.5.1. Figure 3.5.1 shows trends of CH4 emissions by sectors. In 2003 the total amount of CH4 emissions was about 43% of the level of 1990.

60

Table 3.5.1. Estonia's sources of methane emissions, Gg

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003Waste Management 76.6 49.2 39.7 40.8 49.2 50.3 61.0 71.1 67.4 62.1 56.9 34.4 35.6 34.9

Agriculture 69.7 65.3 60.3 46.8 43.8 35.7 27.2 26.1 25.0 21.8 20.6 21.3 20.5 22.1

Energy 61.3 60.0 41.6 27.1 32.2 36.0 40.1 39.3 34.4 32.8 36.9 38.1 34.3 93.7

Total 207.8 174.7 141.7 114.7 125.3 122.0 128.3 136.5 126.8 116.7 114.4 93.8 90.4 93.7

3.5.1. Energy

Methane comprises about 9 per cent of the total Estonia’s greenhouse gases (2003). The main source of CH4 emissions in Estonia is energy sector, including fugitive emissions from oil shale mining, fuel handling and transport and also fuel combustion. In 2003 energy sector contribution was 62% to the total methane emissions, at that 85% were from fugitive emissions of fuel mining, transmission, storage and handling and only 5% from the direct fuel combustion. Table 3.5.2 shows that CH4 emissions in energy sector are going down every year to compare with 1990.

Table 3.5.2. Methane emissions from energy sector, Gg

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003Fuel Combustion 4.1 4.8 3.4 2.9 3.5 5.9 6.9 6.9 5.5 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.5

Fugitive Emission 57.2 55.2 38.2 24.2 28.7 30.0 33.3 32.3 29.0 27.5 31.6 32.9 29.0 31.2

Total 61.3 60.0 41.6 27.1 32.2 56.9 40.1 39.3 34.4 32.8 36.9 38.1 34.3 36.7

3.5.2. Agriculture

Livestock is the main contributor to greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture. In Estonia methane emission is calculated for dairy cattle, non-dairy cattle, swine, sheep, horses and poultry (Figure 3.5.2). Dairy and non-dairy cattle account for the largest part of global methane emission from livestock manures. After cattle, swine wastes make the second largest contribution. As it can be seen in Figure 3.5.2 during the last decade the total number of livestock has decreased about 60%.

61

Figure 3.5.2. Number of livestock in Estonia.

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,519

90

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

Poultry (10 millions)Swine (millions)Non-dairy Cattle (millions)Dairy Cattle (millions)Sheep (millions)Horses (100 thousands)

Since 1990 the total number of animals has decreased about 60% (see Figure 3.5.2), due to the rapid changes in the economy of Estonia. Since 1996 official statistics include number of goats separately from number sheep.

Animals produce methane through enteric fermentation. Methane emission from enteric fermentation forms about 75% of total CH4 emission from agriculture. The methane emissions from this source are released as a result of fermentation in the digestive systems of the ruminant animals. This process depends on the kind of animals and the feed intake. Manure management is also an important source of CH4; significant quantities of methane are emitted during the decomposition of animal excreta. Under anaerobic conditions, methane-producing bacteria convert organic matter into methane. The quantities of produced methane are largely dependent on the type of manure management system and environment temperature. Storing manure in lagoons or as liquid manure produces significantly greater quantities of methane compared to grazing on pasture or solid manure storage. Main producers of methane are cattle and swine. Sheep, goats, horses and poultry contribute only a comparatively small portion of total emission of methane in Estonia. As a result of decreased number of animals, CH4 emission from enteric fermentation has decreased also, but has more-or-less stabilized in the pervious few years (Table 3.5.3).

62

Table 3.5.3. CH4 emission from agriculture (Gg) 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003Enteric Fermentation (Gg)

52.0 48.8 46.9 36.4 33.8 26.5 24.1 23.0 21.9 19.1 18.0 18.4 17.7 19.3

Manure Management (Gg)

17.7 16.5 13.4 10.4 10.0 9.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 2.7 2.7 2.9 2.8 2.8

TotalCH4 from agriculture (Gg)

69.7 65.3 60.3 46.8 43.8 35.7 27.2 26.1 25.0 21.8 20.6 21.3 20.5 22.1

3.5.3. Waste management

The methodology (Tier 1) used in the “Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories”. Activity data is mainly based on official Estonian statistics, provided by the Statistical Office of Estonia and Estonian Environment Information Centre. Was used the default emission factors for the calculations.

The data for annual amounts of mixed solid waste landfilled is taken from the Estonian Environment Information Centre. This data is available from year 1993, before that the amount was calculated. For emission calculations are taken into consideration the managed landfills.

The recovered methane is the methane that is exhausted from landfill and used for heating and electricity producing. In Estonia is only one landfill- Pääsküla- where this method is in use. The amount is calculated using the amount of exhausted methane and its therm.

Emissions of CH4 from domestic wastewater handling systems are estimated by using the IPCC method (special table for calculations) and the default emission factors.

In the Table 3.5.4 is presented the amounts of waste management and calculated methane emissions from year 1990-2003.

63

Table 3.5.4. Amounts of waste management and calculated methane emissions from year 1990-2003 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003Total generation of municipal waste (t) 659 335 604 254 481 137 524 238 536 801

incl. mixed municipal waste

337 134 472 639 522 097 565 304 593 258 557 157 595 918 544 194 376 100 396 743 444 892

incl. collected by type

22 636 16 452 30 965 34 080 58 421

Mixed municipal waste generation (kg/y per habita)

223 320 361 397 422 400 432 397 275 292 328

Total generation of municipal waste (kg/y per habita)

478 440 352 385 396

Number of inhabitants (mil.) 1,511 1,477 1,448 1,425 1,406 1,393 1,379 1,372 1,367 1,361 1,356

Municipal waste landfilling (t) 750 620 306 330 306 330 317 041 468 869 518 520 563 688 591 991 556 000 568 622 543 874 402 960 419 248 371 306

Methane emission from waste (Gg)

67.4 27.5 27.5 28.5 39.4 44.2 48.3 50.8 47.6 48.8 46.5 24.0 23.6 22.1

Methane emission from wastewater (Gg)

9.1 21.7 12.2 12.3 9.8 6.1 12.7 20.3 19.8 13.3 10.4 10.4 12.0 12.8

Total emission (Gg) 76.6 49.2 39.7 40.8 49.2 50.3 61.0 71.1 67.4 62.1 56.9 34.4 35.6 34.9

3.6. N2O emissions

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is an active greenhouse gas while its actual emissions are much smaller those of CO2. At the same time, N2O is approximately 310 times more powerful than CO2 at trapping heat in the atmosphere over a 100-year horizon.

In Estonia, nitrous oxide emissions contribute about 2.1 per cent to the Estonia’s total greenhouse gas emissions. Figure 3.6.1 sows a rapid decrease of N2O emissions from 1990 to 2002 and some moderate increase in 2003 what could be explained with increase in the use on N-fertilizers.

Figure 3.6.1. Total nitrous oxide emissions in 1990-2003, Gg.

0,00

0,50

1,00

1,50

2,00

2,50

3,00

3,50

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

Agriculture

Fuel Combustion

64

The main activities producing Estonia's emissions of N2O are soil management and fertilizers used in agriculture, but also fossil fuel combustion (see Table 3.6.1).

Table 3.6.1. Estonia's sources of nitrous oxide emissions. Gg1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Fuel Combustion 0.15 0.15 0.11 0.09 0.11 0.14 0.16 0.16 0.14 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.14 0.14

Agriculture 3.15 3.09 2.53 1.61 1.41 1.19 1.09 1.20 1.25 1.02 1.21 1.04 0.88 0.86Total Emissions 3.30 3.23 2.63 1.70 1.53 1.32 1.25 1.37 1.39 1.16 1.34 1.17 1.01 1.01

One of the main sources of nitrogen emission into the atmosphere in Estonia is use of N-fertilizers. Restructuring of agricultural production, development of the private sector, partial loss of the traditional eastern market and a rise in the prices of fuels and fertilisers have influenced immensely the whole agricultural sector. The use of N-fertilizers has decreased during the last decade about 60-70% (Figure 3.6.2). As compared with developed agricultural countries, the application of fertilizers in Estonia is very low, but in 2003 use of fertilizer has increased.

During the last two decades the structure of sown area has changed because of the restructuring of agricultural production. In 1990 the total sown area of field crops was 1116 thousand hectares of which forage crops covered 60 %, cereals and legumes 35 %, potatoes 4 % and other crops (industrial crops and vegetables) less than 1 % (Fig. 3.6.3). During the following years the area of field crops decreased rapidly. At the same time the level of agricultural production decreased too. It can be explained mainly by economic factors - the prices of fertilisers, machinery and fuels have risen, but the prices of agricultural products are relatively low. In comparison with 1990 the total sown area was about 50 % smaller in 2003 and was 517 thousand hectares. Forage crops covered 36 %, cereals and legumes 51 %, potatoes 3 % and other crops 10 % of the total sown area.

Figure 3.6.2 Use of N-fertilisers, t N/yr.

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

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2003

Use

of N

-ferti

liser

s, t

N/y

r

65

Figure 3.6.3. Sown areas of field crops, thousand hectares.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Cereal andlegumes

Potatoes Forage crops Other Total

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2003

Domestic animals are a very small direct source of nitrous oxide and have not been considered in estimating emissions of greenhouse gases. A good deal of nitrous oxide is emitted during storage of animal waste. Nitrous oxide emitted from urine and faeces of grazing animals in the pasture is attributed to emissions from agricultural soils. Total nitrous oxide emission from agriculture has decreased rapidly since 1990 (Table 3.6.2).

Table 3.6.2. N2O emission from agriculture (Gg)1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 200

3

Manure Management 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.0

3

Agricultural Soils 3.07 3.01 2.47 1.56 1.37 1.15 1.06 1.17 1.22 1.00 1.18 1.00 0.84 0.8

3

Total Emissions 3.15 3.09 2.53 1.61 1.41 1.19 1.09 1.20 1.25 1.02 1.21 1.04 0.88 0.8

6

3.7. HFCs, PFCs and SF6 emissions

According to the Guidelines for the Preparation of National Communications by Parties Including in ANNEX I to the Convention a national GHG inventory should include three new greenhouse gases: hydroflurocarbons (HFCs), perflurocarbons (PFCs) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6). These gases are not directly harmful to the stratospheric ozone layer; they are not controlled by the Montreal Protocol. However, these compounds are powerful greenhouse gases and are, therefore, considered under the Framework Convention on Climate Change.

For example, HFC-134a has an estimated direct global warming potential of 1300, which makes them 1300 times more heat absorbent than an equivalent amount by weight of CO2 in the

66

atmosphere. For this reason, emission estimates for these gases should have been included in a national inventory.

HFCs, PFCs and SF6 are not produced in Estonia. However, such gases are brought in Estonia in bulk or in some imported equipment (mainly household and industrial refrigerators, ice machines, drinking water coolers, etc) where the gases are accumulated.

Unfortunately, we do not have today such a data collection system in Estonia needed for the emission calculations of those gases, but the Ozone and Climate Unit at the Estonian Environmental Research Centre (EERC) has in the course of building up its ODS (ozone depleting substances) data bases also included HCFs whenever information was available but there are still major gaps in the collected data on fluorinated gases. Some awareness rising has also already taken place.

In 2005 a project proposal for the EU Transition Facility programme was prepared with title: “Enhancing the capacity to reduce the emissions of fluorinated greenhouse gases in Estonia”. The project will assess to what extent the current system for ozone depleting substances can be used in the context of fluorinated gases and what additional activities need to be taken. In addition all missing inventories, strategies, programmes, guidelines, standards, legislative provisions etc. will be prepared as well as public and industry awareness events and training sessions will be conducted with an aim to first stabilize the emissions of fluorinated gases and eventually reducing the emissions.

The project aims at preparing Estonia for better implementation of the Kyoto Protocol which was approved on behalf of the Community by decision 2002/358/EC (Council Decision of 25 April 2002 concerning the approval, on behalf of the European Community, of the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the joint fulfilment of commitments there under) and by the Estonian Government on 30 September 2004 as well as the forthcoming Regulation 2003/0189 (COD) on fluorinated greenhouse gases and the Proposal for a Directive relating to emissions from air conditioning systems in motor vehicles and amending Council Directive 70/156/EEC that are planned to be passed before project start and which establish a detailed framework for the system to be set up in all member states for the reduction of emissions of fluorinated gases.

3.8. Indirect GHG and SO2 emissions

Naturally occurring GHGs include water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and ozone. However, other photochemically important gases, such as carbon monoxide (CO), oxides of nitrogen (NOx), and non-methane volatile organic compounds, while not direct GHGs, do contribute indirectly to the greenhouse effect by creating tropospheric ozone and, as such, are included under the UNFCCC. Direct effect occur when the gas itself is a GHG, while indirect radiative forcing occurs when chemical transformation of original gas produces a GHG or GHGs or when a gas influences the atmospheric lifetime of other gases. Unlike other criteria pollutants, SO2 emitted into the atmosphere affects the Earth's radiative budget negatively.

CO is usually emitted when carbon-containing fuels are burned incompletely; oxides of nitrogen (NO and NO2) are created from lighting, natural fires, fossil fuel combustion, and in the stratosphere from nitrous oxide; NMVOCs, (including such compounds like propane, butane, ethane, etc) are emitted primarily from transportation and industrial processes, as well from

67

forest wildfires. SO2 is not a GHG however being a greater of sulphate aerosols in the atmosphere it has an impact on climate.

Figure 3.8.1. Indirect GHG emissions and SO2 in 1990-2003.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Gg

NOxCONMVOCSO2

Figure 3.8.1 presents data on indirect GHG and also SO2 emissions for the period 1990 until 2003 in Estonia. Emissions of indirect GHG and SO2 by sectors are presented in Annex 2.

3.9. Aggregated emissions of GHG

The concept of global warming potential (GWP) has been developed to allow scientists and policy makers to compare the ability of each GHG to trap heat in the atmosphere relative to another gas. By definition a GWP is the time integrated change in radiative forcing due to the instantaneous release of 1kg of a trace gas expressed relative to the radiative forcing from the release of 1 kg of carbon dioxide. In other words a GWP is a relative measure of the warming effect that the emission or a radiative gas might have on the surface troposphere. The GWP of a GHG takes into account both the incremental concentration increase and the lifetime of the gas. While any time period can be chosen for comparison, in this report the 100-year GWPs are used, as per UNFCCC guidelines (Decision 3/CP.5).

68

Table 3.9.1. 1995 IPCC Global Warming Potential (GWP) valuesGreenhouse Gas Chemical Formula 1995 IPCC GWPCarbon Dioxide CO2 1Methane CH4 21Nitrous oxide N2O 310HFC-134a C2H3F3(CF3CH3) 3800HFC-23 CHF3 11700HFC-152a C2H4F2(CH3CHF2) 140Sulphur hexafluoride SF6 23900

The Estonia’s total anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in 2003 were 21.387 Gg of carbon dioxide equivalents (without LULUCF) which is about 51% under the 1990 level (43.494 Gig respectively) (see also Annex 2. Emission Trends (Summary), Estonia). Figure 3.9.2 illustrates the contribution and changes of three main primary greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide methane and nitrous oxide) to total emissions during 1990 – 2003. This contribution was calculated based on the global warming potentials of these gases, as presented in the figure. The emissions of indirect greenhouse gases are not included in the total figure, because there is no aggregated – upon method to estimate their contribution to climate change.

Figure 3.9.1. Contribution of net greenhouse gas emission by sectors.

2 44

0

732

614

-6 3

17

1 60

8

38 8

29

-8 7

17

733

276

19 6

45

-10 000

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

Energy Agriculture Waste IndustrialProcesses

Land-UseChange and

Forestry

1990 2003

69

Figure 3.9.2. Dynamic of CO2, CH4, N2O and net Estonia’s emission, Gg CO2 eq.

Net carbon dioxide

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

Methane

0500

1 0001 5002 0002 5003 0003 5004 0004 500

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

Nitrous Oxide

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

Net Estonia's emission

05 000

10 00015 00020 00025 00030 00035 00040 000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

70

APPENDIX

71

Calorific Values, Fractions of Carbon Oxidised and Carbon Emission Factors

Table A.1. Calorific values, fractions of carbon oxidised and carbon emission factors

EF (t C/TJ) Fraction of Carbon Oxidised

NCVaverage Unit

Natural Gas Liquids 17.2 0.99 45.8 GJ/tGasoline 18.9 0.99 43.01 GJ/tJet Kerosene 19.5 0.99 43.65 GJ/tOther Kerosene 19.6 0.99 40.94 GJ/tShale Oil 21.1 0.98 39.17 GJ/tDiesel Oil 20.2 0.99 42.33 GJ/tResidual Fuel Oil 21.1 0.98 40.52 GJ/tAnthracite 26.8 0.98 27.33 GJ/tOil Shale 29.1 0.98 8.82 GJ/tPeat 28.9 0.97 9.20 GJ/tPeat Briquette 28.9 0.97 16.04 GJ/tOil Shale Coke 29.5 0.97 25.89 GJ/tNatural Gas 15.3 0.995 32.48 GJ/1000 m3Solid Biomass 29.9 0.98 6.74 GJ/m3 s

Calorific values of used fuels were found from the annual proceeding of the Statistical Office of Estonia - Energy Balance 2004 (Energy…, 2004) CEF of used fuels were taken from IPCC Guidelines (Greenhouse ... Workbook, Vol. 2, 1996) and only the shale oil CEF was taken from Act No.58, Sept 08, 1998 of Ministry of the Environment. Calorific values of some fuels are changeable. Most of all are changeable caloric values of oil shale and that of solid biomass (wood waste).

IPCC Guidelines (1994, 1995) did not contain information about Estonian oil shale and its carbon emission factor. As oil shale is the main indigenous fuel of Estonia therefore its short description is given below. Estonian oil shale as fuel is characterised by high ash content (45-50%), a moderate content of moisture (11-13%) and sulphur (1.4-1.8%), a low net caloric value (8.5-9 MJ/kg), a high content of volatile matter in combustible part (up to 90%). The dry matter of Estonian oil shale considered to consist of three main parts: organic, sandy-clay and carbonate.

From the point of view of greenhouse gas emissions it is important that during combustion of powdered oil shale CO2 has been formed not only as a burning product of organic carbon, but also as a decomposition product of ash carbonate part. Therefore the total quantity of carbon dioxide increases up to 25% in flue gases of oil shale.

A formula compiled by A. Martins for calculation of Estonian oil shale carbon emission factor, taking in consideration the decomposition of its ash carbonate part, is as follow:

CEFoil shale = 10 x [Crt + k x (CO2)r

M x 12/44] / Qri (tC/TJ),

where:Qr

i - net calorific value oil shale as it burned, MJ/kg;Cr

t - carbon content of oil shale as it burned, %;(CO2)r

M - mineral carbon dioxide content of oil shale as it burned, %;k - decomposition rate of ash carbon part (k = 0.95÷1.0 for pulverised combustion of oil shale) (Kull, et al., 1974).

Oil shale emission factor 29.1 tC/TJ is included into IPCC Guidelines (Greenhouse ... Workbook, Vol. 2, 1996).

72

Emission Factors of non- CO2 Gases from Fuel Combustion

Table A.2. CH4 from fuel combustion (kg/TJ)

Coal Natural Gas Oil Wood Peat/

BriquetteEnergy Industries 1 1 3 30 30Manufacturing 10 5 2 30 30TransportDomestic Aviation 2Road 50 20/5*Railways 10 5National Navigation 10 5Commercial 10 5 10 300 300Residential 300 5 10 300 300AgricultureStationary 300 5 10 300 300Mobil 5 5

*Gasoline/DieselSource: IPCC96 default value

Table A.3. N2O from fuel combustion (kg/TJ)

Coal Natural Gas Oil Wood Peat/ Briquette

Energy Industries 1.0 0.1 0.6 4 4Manufacturing 1.4 0.1 0.6 4 4TransportDomestic Aviation 2Road 0.1 0.6/0.6*Railways 1.4 0.6National Navigation 1.4 0.6Commercial 1.4 0.1 0.6 4 4Residential 1.4 0.1 0.6 4 4AgricultureStationary 1.4 0.1 0.6 4 4Mobil 0.1 0.6

*Gasoline/DieselSource: IPCC96 default value

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Table A.4. NOx from fuel combustion (kg/TJ)

Coal Natural Gas Oil Wood Oil Shale Peat/ Briquette

Energy Industries 300 150 200 100 125 100Manufacturing and Construction 300 150 200 100 123 100TransportDomestic Aviation 300Road 600 600/800*Railways 300 1200National Navigation 300 1500Commercial 100 50 100 100 123 100Residential 100 50 100 100 123 100Agriculture 100 50 100 100 123 100StationaryMobil 1000 1200

*Gasoline/DieselSource: IPCC96 default value

Table A.5. CO from fuel combustion (kg/TJ)

Coal Natural Gas Oil Wood Oil Shale Peat/

BriquetteEnergy Industries 20 20 15 1000 26 1000Manufacturing and Construction 150 30 10 2000 87 4000TransportDomestic Aviation 100

Road 400 800/1000*

Railways 150 1000National NavigationCommercial 2000 50 20 5000 87 5000Residential 2000 50 20 5000 87 5000AgricultureStationary 2000 50 20 5000 87 5000Mobil 400 1000

*Gasoline/DieselSource: IPCC96 default value

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Table A.6. NMVOC from fuel combustion (kg/TJ)

Coal Natural Gas Oil Wood Peat/ Briquette

Energy Industries 5 5 5 50 50Manufacturing and Construction 20 5 5 50 50TransportDomestic Aviation 50Road 5 1500/200*Railways 20 200National Navigation 20 200Commercial 200 5 5 600 600Residential 200 5 5 600 600AgricultureStationary 200 5 5 600 600Mobil 5 200

*Gasoline/DieselSource: IPCC96 default value

Table A.7. CH4 emission factors for fugitive emissions from oil and gas activitiesOIL Emission

FactorUnit

Production (only Shale Oil) 4 000 kg CH4/PJTransport of oil products 745 kg CH4/PJStorage of oil products 200 kg CH4/PJGASProduction (only landfill gas) 458 000 kg CH4/PJTransmission and distribution (of natural gas)

458 000 kg CH4/PJ

Other LeakageNon-residential gas consumed 279 500 kg CH4/PJResidential gas consumed 139 500 kg CH4/PJVenting and flaring from oil/gas productionOil 4000 kg CH4/PJGas 18 000 kg CH4/PJ

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4. POLICIES AND MEASURES

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4.1. Institutional and legislative framework

The decisions on environment related policies and measures can be taken at national and at local level. In Estonia the Parliament – Riigikogu – is the highest legislative body. The Government of the Republic of Estonia is the supreme executive body and the Ministry of Environment – the highest executive body responsible for carrying out national environmental policy. As a rule, environmental legislation is initiated by the Government or by the Ministry of Environment (MoE). In some aspects, the initiative can come from the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Communications (MoEAC) or from the Ministry of Agriculture (MoA).

The Ministry of Environment comprises fifteen departments, including Environmental management and technology, Forestry, Waste, Strategy and Investment planning departments. Environment departments subordinated to the MoE work in every of 15 county governments. These departments implement national environmental, nature protection, forest and fisheries programmes and action plans at county level.

Some aspects of environment and climate items are in scope of responsibilities of other ministries. The MoEAC is responsible for energy related issues, including energy efficiency and conservation, also for the use of renewable sources in the energy sector. The MoA advises the Government in the field of agriculture and rural life. Some responsibilities of the Ministry of Finance include matters important for environmental management – taxation, use of state budget funds, etc. All ministries are in charge of national development plans and programmes.

The past decade has seen a steady increase in the number of NGOs, which deal with environmental problems and raise public awareness in environment and sustainable development matters. Several NGOs have taken active part in preparation of environment related development plans.

During the short period elapsed since Estonia regained its independence, a great progress has been made in developing the legislation. Estonian legal acts were amended in the process of integration with the European Union, and today Estonian legislation, including legislation on environmental management, is almost fully harmonized with the acquis communautaire of the EU.

According to § 5 of the Constitution of the Republic of Estonia (RT 1992, 26, 349) the natural wealth and resources of Estonia must be used economically and § 53 prescribes that everyone has a duty to preserve the human and natural environment and to compensate for damage caused to the environment.

It is important to emphasize that the § 123 of the Constitution stipulates: if laws or other legislation of Estonia are in conflict with international treaties ratified by the Parliament, the provisions of the international treaty shall apply.

4.2. International agreements and conventions, EU legislation

Since regaining the independence Estonia has concluded 49 bilateral or trilateral environmental agreements and has become a party to 24 environmental conventions and protocols. The conventions Estonia has acceded include: Arhus (1998), Espoo (1991), Helsinki (1992), Geneva

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(1979), Vienna (1985), Washington (1973), Rio de Janeiro (1992), etc. Regarding ozone depletion: London and Copenhagen Amendments (April 12, 1999) and the Montreal Amendments (April 11, 2003) and also the latest Beijing Amendment (October 15, 2003).

Estonia signed the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change on 3 December 1998, the Protocol was ratified by the Estonian Parliament on 3 September 2002 (RT II 2002, 26, 111). According to the Protocol, during 2008 – 2012 Estonia has to reduce the GHG emissions by 8% in comparison with the 1990 level. The obligation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions established in the Kyoto Protocol has already been achieved in Estonia as a result of significant re-organization of economic sectors, particularly of energy production but also of industry and agriculture, i.e. as a result of the qualitative and quantitative restructuring of the whole economy at the beginning of 1990s.

At present the Estonian environment related legislation is harmonized with the relevant acquis of the EU. There are only some exceptions. As a result of accession negotiations Estonia was granted five transitional periods under the chapter of environment. Three of these periods are related to ambient air quality as well as to climate change issues. In Estonia the EU requirements for the storage of petrol and its distribution from terminals to service stations (Directive 94/63/EC) will be gradually achieved by the end of 2006. As regards landfill of waste (Directive 1999/31/EC), due to the large amounts of hazardous waste (ash) generated by the oil shale industry, the transitional arrangements are required until 16 July 2009. Regarding large combustion plants (Directive 2001/80/EC), emissions from large oil shale firing power plants have to be fully compliant to EU requirements by 1 January 2016.

There are some more EU directives that have impact on the climate change. The directive on the promotion of electricity produced from renewable energy sources in the internal electricity market (Directive 2001/77/EC) provides for Estonia the indicative share (5.1%) of electricity produced from renewable energy sources in total electricity consumption by 2010. The Directive on the promotion of the use of biofuels or other renewable fuels for transport (Directive 2003/30/EC) stipulates that the Member States should ensure that a minimum proportion of biofuels and other renewable fuels is placed on their markets, and, to that effect, shall set national indicative targets. A reference value for these targets shall be 2%, calculated on the basis of energy content, of all petrol and diesel oil consumption for transport purposes placed on their markets by 31 December 2005; and 5.75 % by 31 December 2010. The Directive on the energy performance of buildings (Directive 2002/91/EC) has the objective to promote the improvement of the energy performance of buildings within the Community, taking into account outdoor climatic and local conditions, as well as indoor climate requirements and cost-effectiveness. The measures foreseen in this Directive would support the more efficient energy use both in private and public buildings. In Estonia the implementation of the Directive 2002/91/EC is in progress.

4.3. Strategic documents and programmes

4.3.1. National Environmental Strategy

Up today the National Environmental Strategy, approved by the Parliament in 1997 (RT I 1997, 26, 390) has served as the underlying document for planning of environmental policy. This environmental policy document provides general guidelines and objectives for environmental management and protection, establishes the most important goals to be achieved by the year 2010. Based on the objectives and tasks of the Strategy the National Environmental Action Plan

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was developed in 1997–1998. The action plan is a subject to regular revisions. The latest phase of the document (for the years 2001–2003) was approved by the Government in June 2001 and the MoE was appointed as the agency responsible for the implementation of the action plan. The draft of the Action Plan for the next period (up to 2006) is in the process of preparation. At the same time, the new national environmental strategy is currently at the drafting stage as well.

4.3.2. Long-term National Development Plan for the Fuel and Energy Sector

In Estonia the first national long-term development plan for the energy sector was passed by the Parliament (Riigikogu) in 1998. The next plan – Long-term National Development Plan for the Fuel and Energy Sector until 2015 – was approved by the Riigikogu in December 2004. This development plan is based on the Sustainable Development Act (RT I 1995, 31, 384) and provides guidelines for the development of the fuel and energy sector until 2015. The Plan defines the current situation in the sector, presents issues set out in the EU accession treaty, prognoses developments of the energy consumption, sets the strategic development objectives for the energy sector, as well as the development principles and the extent of the necessary investments. The document is accompanied with the assessment of the strategic environmental impact of development scenarios proposed in the Plan. In the second half of 2005 the Plan will be supplemented by the Electricity Sector Development Plan, preparation of which is stipulated by the Electricity Market Act (RT I 2003, 25, 153). The strategic objectives of the Estonian fuel and energy sector presented in the Plan include the following environment related targets:

ensure that by 2010 renewable electricity forms 5.1 per cent of the gross consumption; ensure that by 2020 electricity produced in combined heat and power production stations

forms 20 per cent of the gross consumption; ensure that, in the open market conditions, the competitiveness of the domestic market of

oil shale production is preserved and its efficiency is increased, and apply modern technologies which reduce harmful environmental impact;

ensure compliance with the environmental requirements established by the state; increase the efficiency of the energy consumption in the heat, energy and fuel sector; until 2010, maintain the volume of primary energy consumption at the level of the year

2003; develop measures which enable the use of renewable liquid fuels, particularly biodiesel,

in the transport sector.

4.3.3. National programme to reduce the emission of GHG

In April 2004 the Government approved the National Programme of Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction for 2003-2012 (RT L 2004, 59, 990). The main goal of the Programme is to ensure the meeting of targets set by the UN FCCC and the Kyoto Protocol. The Programme gives an overview of the Kyoto commitments and analyses the implementation strategy and action measures for Estonia. A special attention has been given to strategy, structure and costs of GHG emission trading and joint implementation projects. The long-term objective of the National Programme is reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 21% by 2010 as compared with the 1999 emission level. This would include reduction of carbon dioxide emissions by 20%, reduction of methane emissions by 28%, and increase of nitrogen dioxide emissions by 9%.The sub-objectives of the programme are following:

determining the possibilities for reducing anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases;

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offering possibilities for reducing anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases in order to reduce human impact on potential climate change;

developing the flexible mechanism of Joint Implementation along the lines of the Kyoto Protocol to reduce greenhouse gas emissions;

determining project themes for Estonia, suitable for Joint Implementation on the basis of the Kyoto Protocol and preparing a relevant database;

increasing the energy efficiency of the Estonian economy (reducing energy intensity).

4.3.4. Joint Implementation

Joint Implementation (JI) is one of three flexible mechanisms introduced by the Kyoto Protocol for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Already in 1993 Estonia became involved in the early pilot stage of the JI – Activities Implemented Jointly (AIJ). In cooperation with the Swedish National Board for Industrial and Technical Development (NUTEK/STEM) a number of renewable energy projects were carried out. Investments were made by the Swedish side. The projects were mostly aimed at rebuilding boilers to start using local wood instead of imported liquid fuel, but included also energy conservation projects – renovation of district heating networks, insulation of residential buildings and installing DH substations in block houses. In total, Sweden and Estonia have registered 21 common AIJ projects in the Climate Secretariat in Bonn. The annual reduction of CO2 emission in Estonia was estimated to be more than 80 thousand tons.By today, Estonia has signed the memorandums of understanding on JI with Finland (2002), Netherlands (2003), Denmark (2003) and Sweden (2005). The negotiations with Austria are in progress and with Belgium in preparation phase. Up to now (as of September 2005), the assessed and approved impact of JI projects on CO2 emission is 260.3 thousand t of CO2 assigned amount units (AAU) and 368.5 thousand t of CO2 emission reduction units (ERU).

In February 2004 the Government adopted the accession of Estonia to the Agreement on a Testing Ground for Application of the Kyoto Mechanisms on Energy Projects in the Baltic Sea Region (RT II 2004, 22, 92). The Testing Ground for international cooperation in the use of Kyoto flexible mechanisms was started with the main objectives to build capacity and competence to use the JI mechanism, to promote the realisation of high quality projects in the energy sector generating emissions reductions. The other objectives include collaboration in addressing administrative and financial barriers, and minimization of transaction costs, especially regarding small-scale JI projects. The Agreement also facilitates ensurance of issuing and transferring of ERUs and AAUs related to or accruing from JI projects.

4.3.5. National Allocation Plan for GHG emission allowances

The EU Emissions Trading Scheme was officially started on 1 January 2005. Companies with regulated installations located in countries participating in the program must limit their GHG emissions to allocated levels in two periods: 2005 to 2007 and 2008 to 2012. The Estonia’s National Allocation Plan (NAP) was accepted on 20 October 2004 by the European Commission. Estonian Government adopted the NAP in January 2005 (RT I 2005, 6, 22). The Decree on the list of activity fields of operators and the order for greenhouse gases emissions allowances trading has been approved by the Government in of January 2005 as well (RT I 2005, 4, 14).

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The NAP for GHG emission provides the right to emit 56 859 million tons of carbon dioxide during 2005-2007. The plan includes 43 installations: 36 in the energy production, five in the mineral industry sector and two in the group of “other activities” (pulp and paper industry). District heating installations with a capacity exceeding 20 MW form the largest group on the list – 20 installations. Also, six electricity producing installations qualified in the scheme.

In the first trading period the emission allowances have been allocated to the installations free of charge. The free allocation was based on the principle that new installations covered by the directive should be encouraged to participate in the trading scheme. This will stimulate the undertakings to use production and combustion technologies with lower emissions, to replace the more polluting fossil fuels with cleaner ones (e.g. with natural gas) or biofuels, as well as to invest in measures for sustainable energy production, transmission and consumption.

The allocated total amount of allowances also includes a reserve of emissions of 568 590 tonnes of CO2 for new entrants to be allocated on the “first comes, first served”-principle. The reserve is divided between the three years in proportion to the emission allowances for each year.

A new division has been formed in the Information Centre of the MoE – Climate and Ozone Bureau, what will be responsible authority in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme implementation in Estonia.

4.3.6. Other strategy documents and programmes

In July 2000, the Government approved the National Programme on Reduction of Pollutant Emissions from Large Combustion Plants (for 1999 – 2003), which approximated the EU Directive 88/609/EEC. As a result of the Programme, emissions of pollutants from large combustion plants were reduced substantially: particulates by 56%, SO2 by 23% and emission of NOx by 10%.

In May 1999 the Government approved the National Programme for Phasing out the Ozone Depleting Substances (RT L 1999, 79, 988). Main goal of the programme is implementation of responsibilities proceeding from international agreements in order to protect health of people and the environment from damage arising from the depleting of ozone layer. The Programme envisaged the establishment of a regional halons treatment centre for the Baltic countries, establishment of a recovery system for refrigerating agents and treatment centres for used freons, and creation of a system for monitoring in-country transport of ozone-depleting substances (ODS). As the result of the programme, Estonia reduced its consumption of ODS from 131 ODP tons of Annex A and B substances in 1995 to zero in 2002. Estonia does not produce ODS. The use of halons has been prohibited in Estonia since 1 January 2000.

As an EU member state, Estonia has the opportunity to receive EU regional structural assistance. The Estonian National Development Plan for the Implementation of the EU Structural Funds – Single Programming Document 2004-2006 (SPD) (RT L 2004, 19, 312) serves as the basis for common national and EU efforts to fasten the social and economic development of Estonia. The SPD is an important national document also for the purposes of the climate change mitigation. Measure 4.2 (Development of Environmental Infrastructure) deals directly with the environment. The general objective of this measure is improving the state of the environment and sub-objectives include improving the quality of ambient air, reduction of waste generation, enhancing the environmental supervision and monitoring system as well as promoting environmental awareness. Regarding climate change, the most important are the objectives,

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which enable investments through the EU Cohesion Fund into the best available techniques in the oil shale burning power plants and promoting the use of renewable energy. The objective of promoting environmental awareness means involving the general public in environmental decision-making, active environmental protection and supervision and forming environmentally sound consumer attitudes among the younger generations. Measure 3.1 (Investment into Agricultural Holdings) should also be mentioned. This measure deals with investments into agricultural holdings. General objective of this measure is to increase the competitiveness of agricultural production through technical progress. Measures 3.4 (Integrated Land Improvement) and 3.7 (Forestry) can also include support to investments that mitigate the climate change.

The Energy Efficiency Target Programme (together with the Implementation Plan for Energy Efficiency Target Programme) approved by the Government in 2000, has the general goal to support the competitiveness of economy through increased energy efficiency; the quantitative objective is to keep the growth rate of energy consumption at the level of 50% of the economic (GDP) growth rate.

The Transport Development Plan for 1999–2006 was adopted by the Government in 1999. As to environment, there was set the goal of slowing down the growth of absolute amounts of the total emission from transport sector. As the next steps stopping the growth at a certain level with the later reduction of emissions were foreseen. At present, the preparation process of the National Transport Development Plan for 2005–2010 is in progress.

In 1997 the Parliament approved the Estonian Forest Policy (RT I 1997, 47, 768) that regulates the forestry sector, which is the main GHG sink in Estonia. In November 2002 the Parliament approved the Estonian Forestry Development Plan up to 2010 (RT I 2002, 95, 552). The development plan attaches importance to forests in Estonian society, and plans the use and protection of forests in accordance with the principles of sustainable management. The Plan is a development document to provide more detailed rules and implement the forest policy. The Plan provides annual maximal felling allowance values, which to some extent can be modified on an as needed basis.

The National Waste Management Plan (RT I 2002, 104, 609) is an important strategic document organising waste management and providing guidance at national level. The Plan constitutes a part of Estonia’s environmental policy and it is closely connected with the National Environmental Action Plan. The Plan provides for systematic waste management, uniform goals for the state as a whole, establishes objectives and tasks for counties, local governments, businesses and for population. It has to be noted that the Plan does not cover waste that is excluded from the scope of the Waste Act; therefore gaseous effluents emitted into the atmosphere are not dealt with.

Estonian Strategy on Sustainable Development – Sustainable Estonia 21 as an alternative national development plan covering the issues of economy, culture and the environment, was elaborated in 2001-2003 and approved by the Parliament on 14 September 2005. The Strategy is based on the principles of Agenda 21 and the EU Strategy for Sustainable Development. It aims at creating an integral vision of Estonian long-term development to support integration of different policies and to co-ordinate implementation of development plans of different sectors.

With regard to the international cooperation in integration of environment into other policies, Estonia has started to implement the action programme for sustainable development adopted by all Baltic Sea countries in the framework of Agenda 21 for the Baltic Sea region.

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4.4. New national legislation

Major international environmental standards have been transformed into Estonian environmental legislation. The Sustainable Development Act (RT I 1995, 31, 384) prescribes the most general principles of sustainable development, thus serving as a basis for all environment related legislation and relevant national programmes. Therefore, the legal acts regulating the energy, industrial and transport sectors, i.e. the sectors that are the most important for the purposes of greenhouse gases, usually take into account major environmental issues. Several aspects of the environmental legislation are stipulated in the form of the Government and minister regulations.

As regards to the energy, from 1998 till 1 July 2003 the whole energy sector was regulated by the provisions of the Energy Act. Since 1 July 2003 the Energy Act was repealed and replaced with four sub-sector specific acts: Electricity Market Act, Natural Gas Act, Liquid Fuel Act and District Heating Act.

The Electricity Market Act (RT I 2003, 25, 153) regulates the generation, transmission, sale, export, import and transit of electricity and the economic and technical management of the power system. The Act prescribes the principles for the operation of the electricity market based on the need to ensure an effective supply of electricity at reasonable prices and meeting environmental requirements and the needs of customers, and on the balanced, environmentally clean and long-term use of energy sources. Regarding the planning for development of electricity sector it is stipulated in the Act that every three years, the MoEAC has to prepare a development plan for the electricity sector and submit it to the Government for approval. This plan has to include environmental protection aspects as well. Currently, the plan is in the drafting phase. Within the context of the climate change it is important to point out that a new renewable energy support scheme was introduced in the Electricity Market Act – the obligation for distribution companies to purchase electricity generated from renewable energy sources at a price of 0.81 EEK/kWh (51.77 EUR/MWh).

The Liquid Fuel Act (RT I 2003, 21, 127) prescribes liquid fuel quality requirements, which become gradually more stringent; and mechanisms for controlling fuel enterprises.

The District Heating Act (RT I 2003, 25, 154) regulates the activities related to heat production, distribution and sale in district heating networks and terms for the connection to the network. As to heat planning, the Act introduced the new for Estonia principle – "zoning of district heating" and relevant planning activities. The Act gives local governments the power to introduce zoning of heat supply based on analyses, carried out for alternative heat supply options during planning phase. The Act provides also that in order to increase energy efficiency, to preserve the quality of the environment and to use natural resources rationally, the Government has to approve an energy conservation programme and an operational programme for the conservation programme.

Regarding the other laws related to energy the Energy Efficiency of Equipment Act (RT I 2003, 78, 525) should be pointed out. A new Act, repealing the previous one, entered into force on 1 January 2004. The new act was needed to ensure the full compliance with the EU requirements. The Act regulates the requirements for the energy efficiency and energy labelling of certain types of household appliances (refrigerators, washing machines, electrict ovens, etc.), heating equipment and installations as well as provides the bases of and procedure for their conformity assessment and attestation in order to increase the energy efficiency.

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A completely revised Ambient Air Protection Act (RT 2004, 43, 298) was enforced in September 2004. The new Act regulates activities, which involve the emission of pollutants into the ambient air, damage to the ozone layer, and appearance of factors causing climate change. The Act provides main principles for the control of ambient air quality, sets basis for emission standards, foresees measures for reduction of air pollution, etc. The Act harmonized Estonian legislation with the relevant EU acquis. The main objective of the Act is to maintain the quality of the ambient air in areas where the quality of the air is good and to improve the quality of the ambient air in areas where the quality of the air does not conform to the requirements. The Act stipulates that activities for the reduction of climate change have to be organised by the MoE on the basis of the requirements for restriction the limit values of emissions of greenhouse gases provided by the UN FCCC and the Kyoto Protocol. The Act also provides that the possessors of pollution sources must take additional measures to reduce the emission levels of carbon dioxide and other GHG. A number of secondary level legal acts have been issued on the basis of this Act.

The Environmental Monitoring Act (RT I 1999, 10, 154), entered into force in 1999. The Act provides for the organisation of environmental monitoring, the procedure for processing and storing data obtained, and the relations between persons carrying out environmental monitoring and owners or possessors of immovables. The environmental monitoring is defined as the continuous observation of the state of the environment and the factors affecting it, with the main purpose to predict the state of the environment and to obtain data for programmes and plans and for the preparation of development plans.

The Environmental Register Act (RT I 2002, 58, 361) entered into force in January 2003. The Act provides the bases for the entry of data regarding natural resources, natural heritage, the state of the environment and environmental factors in the environmental register, for the retention of data in the register and for the processing and release of the data. The environmental register is a general national register with the function to retain and process data regarding natural resources, natural heritage, the state of the environment and environmental factors and to provide information:

for the environmental permits for the right to use natural resources, for waste management or for release of pollutants or organisms into the environment;

for organisation of the international exchange of data; for the preparation of development plans and other plans; for forecasting natural environmental factors and their impact.

The Environmental Impact Assessment and Environmental Management System Act (RT I 2005, 15, 87) entered into force on 3 April 2005 (except for some provisions) replacing the Environmental Impact Assessment and Environmental Auditing Act (RT I 2000, 54, 348). The new Act provides legal bases and procedure for assessment of likely environmental impact, organisation of eco-management and audit scheme and legal bases for awarding eco-label in order to prevent environmental damage and establishes liability upon violation of the requirements of this Act. The aim of the new Act is to bring the Estonian laws and regulations concerning environmental impact assessment into full harmony with EU acquis eliminating the shortfalls in the previous act. The new act specifies the procedure and principles of environmental impact assessment; especially the strategic assessment is regulated in detail. The new act makes strategic environmental assessment mandatory in the case of national, county and local plans and programmes. The procedures of environmental impact assessment are prescribed in a more detailed way.

The Environmental Supervision Act (RT I 2001, 56, 337) entered into force in July 2001. The Act defines the nature of environmental supervision and establishes the rights and obligations of

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persons and agencies who exercise environmental supervision, the rights and obligations of persons and agencies which are subject to environmental supervision, and the procedure for supervisory operations.

The Integrated Pollution Prevention and Control Act (RT I 2001, 85, 512), entered into force in May 2002. The Act determines the environmentally hazardous activities and lays down the bases for the integrated prevention and control of pollution arising from such activities, in order to prevent or reduce the harmful effect of human activity to the environment.

The Nature Conservation Act (RT I 2004, 38, 258) entered into force in May 2004. The main purpose of the Act is to protect the natural environment by promoting the preservation of biodiversity through ensuring the natural habitats and the populations of species of wild fauna, flora and fungi at a favourable conservation status. The Act also promotes the sustainable use of natural resources.

The Organic Farming Act (RT I 2001, 42, 235) is also important among the legislation regulating the agricultural sector. According to the Act organic farming is the sustainable production of agricultural products reducing on the one hand the emissions of N2O caused by the use of nitrate fertilizers and promoting on the other hand the development of effective and sustainable production. A number of secondary legislative acts have been issued on the basis of this act for regulating various aspects of organic farming.

The Forest Act (RT I 1998, 113/114, 1872) entered into force in 1999 and has been amended several times. The Act regulates the management of forest as a renewable natural resource to ensure human environment that satisfies the population and the resources necessary for economic activity without unduly damaging the natural environment. The Act provides also the legal bases for forest survey, forest management planning and forest management, and regulates the directing of forestry and organisation of forest management. The Act prescribes the obligation to prepare a forestry development plan at least in every ten years.

The new Waste Act (RT I, 2004, 9, 52), which entered into force in May 2004, provides the general requirements for preventing waste generation and the health and environmental hazards arising therefrom. It also prescribes the organisation of the waste management with the objective to reduce the harmfulness and quantity of waste. The Act places the obligation to organise the transport of waste in densely populated areas on the relevant local governments. As a new element, the local governments are allowed to impose a waste tax by a regulation within their administrative territory in order to develop waste management.

4.5. Fiscal measures

The fiscal measures, which have impact on GHG emissions in Estonia, include pollution charges, excise duties and VAT taxes applied on fuels and energy.

During last years Estonia has gradually introduced excise duties on fuels. The current tax rates provided in the Alcohol, Tobacco and Fuel Excise Duty Act (RT I 2003, 2, 17) are presented in Table 4.5.1.

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Table 4.5.1. Excise tax on fuels (as on 1 May 2005)

Fuel Unit EUR/unitUnleaded petrol 1000 l 288Leaded petrol 1000 l 422Kerosene 1000 l 302Aviation spirit 1000 l 72Gas oil (diesel fuel) 1000 l 245Gas oil fuel for specific purposes 1000 l 44

LPG as motor fuel t 100Gas oil (light fuel oil) 1000 l 44Heavy fuel oil t 15Shale oil t 15Coal, coke GJ 0.3

It is planned to increase the rate of excise duty on gas oil used as a fuel (LFO) – to 61 EUR/1000 l since 01.01.2006.

As a Member State, Estonia has to meet the EU requirements (Directive 2003/96/EC) for taxation of fuels and energy. Nevertheless, Estonia was granted some transitional periods for introduction of taxation. Regarding the major source of the CO2 in Estonia – the oil shale, the Directive 2004/74/EC stipulates that Estonia may apply a total exemption from taxation of oil shale until 1 January 2009. Until 1 January 2013, it may furthermore apply a reduced rate in the level of taxation of oil shale, provided that it does not result in taxation at below 50% of the relevant Community minimum rate as from 1 January 2011. Regarding to shale oil, Estonia is eligible to apply a transitional period until 1 January 2010 to adjust its national level of taxation on shale oil used for district heating purposes to the EU minimum level of taxation. The tax exemption for natural gas (methane) is permitted by the Directive 2003/96/EC, which allows an exemption on natural gas in those Member States in which the share of natural gas in final energy consumption was less than 15% in 2000. Exemption is for a maximum period of ten years after the entry into force of the Directive or until the national share of natural gas in final energy consumption reaches 25%, whichever will be reached sooner. There are no specific taxes imposed on electricity in Estonia. The Directive 2004/74/EC allows Estonia to apply a transitional period until 1 January 2010 to introduce the output taxation system on electricity.

The amendment (in force since 1 January 2005) to the Act stipulates that if biofuel has been added to motor fuel or heating fuel, the portion of biofuel contained in the motor fuel or heating fuel is exempted from excise duty. This provision needed approval from the European Commission (EC). In July 2005 the EC granted Estonia the relevant right: Estonia was authorised to exempt from excise duty non-synthetic biodiesel, vegetable oils made from biomass and bioethanol made of agriculture products or plant products.

Regarding the pollution taxation, in Estonia emission into air only from stationary pollution sources is taxed. The Pollution Charge Act (RT I 1999, 24, 361) provides the rates for the charge to be paid for release of pollutants or waste into the environment, as well as the procedure for calculation and payment of the charge. Up to the year 2005 (incl.) the rates of pollution charges are fixed in the Act. The charge rates for emission of major pollutants into ambient air are given in the Table 4.5.2. The pollution charge for release of carbon dioxide into ambient air was introduced on 1 January 2000. At present, the CO2 charge has to be paid by all enterprises with total capacities of boilers over 50 MW, excluding the ones firing biomass, peat or waste. In

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addition to pollutants presented in Table 4.5.2 there are charges also for emitting mercaptans, heavy metals and compounds of heavy metals.

Table 4.5.2. Rates of pollution charge for release of pollutants into ambient air; EUR/tPollutant 2004 2005Sulphur dioxide (SO2) 7.29 8.76Carbon monoxide (CO) 1.02 1.28Nitrogen oxides (as NO2) 16.74 20.13Particulates 7.29 8.76Volatile organic compounds 16.74 20.13Carbon dioxide (CO2) * 0.48 0.72

* - paid if the total rated thermal input of the combustion plants of a source of pollution of an energy undertaking is greater than 50 MW; not paid if these combustion plants utilise biomass, peat or waste.

The Act provides higher rates (coefficients for fees: 1.2; 1.5; 2.0 and 2.5) for some areas in Estonia – densely populated, resort and recreation areas, and as well for areas with heavy industrial load. The Act also provides penalties for emissions without permits and emissions exceeding the volumes fixed in permits: the charges would be multiplied by 5.0 (in case of CO, solid particles), 10 (for SO2, NOx, VOC and mercaptans) or 100 (in case of heavy metals).

The MoE has proposed to continue the increase of charge rates with the average pace of at least 20% per year. According to the plans of the Ministry the Pollution Charges Act will be replaced with the Environmental Charges Act, which would incorporate all provisions related to charges and fees on utilization of natural resources, as well as charges on pollution. The draft of the new Act has not yet been delivered to the Parliament.

It is essential, that the income from environmental taxes (pollution charges) from the energy sector would be directed mainly back to the energy sector, for instance, as a support to special-purposed environmental investments. In June 1999 the Act on the Use of Proceeds from the Exploitation of Environment (RT I 1999, 54, 583) was amended by Parliament. It enabled the state, in accordance with the laws, to establish a foundation for organizing the use of proceeds from the exploitation of the environment. In November 2000 the Minister of Finance signed a regulation establishing the Centre of Environmental Investments, which started as the legal successor of the Estonian Environmental Fund to support environmental investments.

All fuels and energy types in Estonia, as a rule, are subject to taxation with the value added tax (VAT). According to the Value Added Tax Act (RT I 2001, 64, 368) in Estonia the standard VAT rate is 18% of the pre-tax value (i.e. 15.3 % of end-user price). The VAT is recoverable for most of enterprises. Regarding fuels, the only exception has been made for peat, peat briquettes, coal and fuel wood, sold to households, housing associations and churches, also to enterprises financed from state or municipal budgets. For these fuels the exemption provides a reduced VAT rate of 5% up to the 30 June 2007. The same provision is applied also to the district heat sold to these institutions. This tax allowance can be considered as distorting the market and slowing down investments into energy conservation measures. Since 1 July 2007 the standard VAT rate (18%) will be applied.

Since January 1997 the use of renewable resources in electricity production had been given preferential treatment by Value Added Tax Act: electricity generated by wind, and hydro-electricity was subject to the value added tax rate of 0% until Estonia’s accession to the EU. Thereafter, i.e. since 1 May 2004, the regular 18% rate is applied.

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4.6. Environmental monitoring and supervision

The Environmental Supervision Act defines the features of environmental supervision and establishes the rights and obligations of persons and agencies that exercise environmental supervision. The Environmental Inspectorate, Land Board, local government bodies and agencies carry out environmental supervision. By law, other government agencies may also be assigned environmental supervision functions.

The Environmental Inspectorate as an environmental supervision body operates in all areas of environmental protection. It has to implement measures provided by law for the prevention of illegal activities and implementation of mandatory environmental protection measures. It has to suspend unlawful activities damaging or dangerous to the environment. The Land Board implements measures provided by law for the inspection of the legality of land use, land readjustment and compliance with land recording requirements, and for the suspension or termination of illegal activities. Local governments or persons and bodies authorised by local government councils have to perform environmental supervision inspecting adherence to the decisions related to environmental protection and use of environment established by the local government councils. All environmental supervision agencies and government agencies performing environmental supervision functions are required to submit information concerning supervision activities to the Environmental Inspectorate by the term and according to the form established by the MoE.

The Energy Market Inspectorate exercises supervision over the energy market. Supervision over the liquid fuel market is exercised by the Tax and Customs Board. The Technical Inspectorate checks the technical condition of the energy equipment.

As provided in Environmental Monitoring Act, state environmental monitoring is organised by the MoE and carried out pursuant to a relevant programme. Data from state environmental monitoring are to be stored in a general national register established. If the results of environmental monitoring indicate that the situation at an environmental monitoring station or site is becoming environmentally hazardous, the institution responsible for the environmental monitoring sub-programme is required to notify the Environmental Inspectorate and local health protection office immediately. Requirements for monitoring emission limit values at large (with rated thermal input equal to or greater than 100 MWth) combustion plants are directly stipulated in the Ambient Air Protection Act – the concentrations of sulphur dioxide, particulate matter and nitrogen oxides must be measured at a continuous basis.

The Environmental Register is a general national register with the function to retain and process data regarding natural resources, natural heritage, the state of the environment and environmental factors, and to provide information. The data from the Environmental Register are used for issuing environmental permits for the right to use natural resources, for waste management or for release of pollutants into the environment. The Register is also used for the preparation of development plans, for organisation of the international exchange of data, etc.

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4.7. Overview by sector

4.7.1. Energy sector

Regarding pollution, the most important part of the energy sector is the combustion of oil shale, as approximately 70% of atmospheric pollution, 80% of effluents and 80% of solid waste are connected with the oil shale power industry. Introduction of new combustion technology allows reducing emissions from oil shale firing power plants. Heat supply, particularly district heating, is the next important sector where there is a large potential for increasing energy efficiency, which in turn results in lower emissions. Deployment of renewable energy sources, especially biomass and wind, will have an increasing role of mitigating impact of energy sector on environment in Estonia.

Renovation of oil shale power plants

The development of oil shale based power production using environmentally sound technologies is an issue of high priority in Estonia. For complying with the requirements of the Directive 2001/80/EC the owner of the largest power plants, Eesti Energia AS, has to reconstruct several units in the power plants of Narva Elektrijaamad AS (Narva Power Plants, including Eesti and Balti plants). Up to 2004, only the pulverized combustion technology of oil shale had been used in these power plants. The conventional pulverized combustion technique for burning oil shale is characterized by a low net average efficiency: 27 – 29%. This, together with the peculiarities of oil shale as a fuel, results in an extremely high specific emission of carbon dioxide per generated electricity: 1.3 – 1.4 t CO2/MWhe. The use of pulverized combustion method causes also high emission of SO2 and solid particles. All these factors have made it not acceptable to continue using this technology in mid- and long-term future.The options for more efficient combustion measures for firing oil shale in large power plants have been under investigation for tens of years. The fluidized bed combustion technology (FBC) has been the most attractive option, also in the environmental aspect. As a result of relevant research, it was decided to start the gradual replacing of oil shale boilers of pulverized combustion with the ones utilizing the circulating fluidized bed combustion (CFBC) method. The CFBC is a variant of atmospheric circulating fluidized bed combustion, which has been in use for particularly low-grade fuels. In CFBC boilers the sulphur dioxide is better bound with the ash and therefore the SO2 emission can be reduced significantly. The higher combustion efficiency reduces fuel consumption up to 25%, which in turn means substantially lower CO2

emission as well (to 1.05-1.10 CO2/MWhe).The first two new blocks (both 215 MW), in Narva Elektrijaamad AS, one at the Eesti and the other at the Balti Plant, adopting new CFBC boilers, were commissioned in 2004. This is Estonia’s largest environment-related investment (245 MEUR) in the protection of the atmosphere. The scope of further reconstruction of other blocks will be determined on the basis of the experience gained with the operation of the first two blocks.

Deployment of renewable energy sources

In Estonia, the orientation to market based development has been the leading principle of the energy policy. Therefore, there have been almost no direct promotion schemes devised or subsidies granted in the field of energy technologies. The only field, where some concrete support measures have been introduced, is the use of renewable energy sources for electricity generation. A direct scheme for supporting the use of renewable energy for electricity generation

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is stipulated in the Electricity Market Act. The scheme includes the purchase obligation for network operators and the relevant feed-in tariff.

In 2003 the total electricity production from hydro and wind energy comprised 18.9 GWh, which is approximately 0.3% of the gross electricity consumption in Estonia. By 2010 the share of renewable electricity is planned to reach the level of at least 5.1% of the gross consumption.

The potential of Estonian renewable energy is primarily in the wind power and combined heat and power production based on biofuel; at the same time also small-scale hydropower industry can be developed. The competitiveness and proportion of other renewables (e.g. biogas, thermal solar energy) may also increase to some extent.

Regarding the use of renewable energy sources, Estonia’s national goal is to achieve the share of renewable electricity 5.1% of total inland consumption by 2010, which is also the indicative target recommended for Estonia by the EU (Directive 2001/77/EC). To reach this goal the use of wind and biomass are the main options for Estonia, the share of small-scale hydro plants will remain almost marginal.

Regarding biomass, a large amount of the primary energy arising from the fuel wood (logs, chips, pellets and wood-waste) is used in the energy conversion processes, primarily in heat production. Logging waste may deemed to be a considerable additional source. But the development is hindered by a large-scale export of biomass, due to which local energy producers do not have enough resources. The export causes the high prices of some biomass products, especially of the wood pellets. The deployment of smaller scale cogeneration of heat and electricity (CHP) as an element of decentralized energy production strategy would increase the energy supply security in Estonia. Therefore, the potential use of biomass in new CHP plants can be a development option. Small heat load and the fact that new equipment producing only heat has already been installed in many areas with a favourable heat load can be indicated as barriers to the development of combined heat and power production based on biomass. The other option for reducing CO2 emission in energy production is using the biomass in district heating and other heat-only boiler (HOB) plants. In Estonia, the heat production in HOB plants is relatively environment benign already: share of wood is 26% and of natural gas 40%.

In the islands of West Estonia, at the coastal areas of North-West Estonia and in South-West Estonia, but also the coastal areas of North Estonia and Lake Peipus there are several perspective areas for application of wind power. The technical limit for the installation of wind generators in the Estonian power system is 400-500 MW. But this requires investments to power networks and power stations to ensure the transmission, regulation and the necessary electrical reserves for wind power. Taking into account the current situation of the power system, it is possible to install wind generators in Estonia to the extent of 90-100 MW, but this would bring about deterioration of the operations quality of the power system. According to some preliminary estimations, it would be possible to erect only 30-50 MW of wind genearators without any negative effect for the power system. In addition to the problems relating to power networks, the more widespread use of wind resources is restricted by great generation unit capacity and poor maneuvering ability of oil shale based power stations.

In 2001 Eesti Energia AS, the Estonian Fund for Nature and hundreds of supporters launched the Green Energy project for supporting and promoting the production of electricity from renewable sources. Buyers of Green Energy use electricity produced from renewable sources of energy (up to now wind and water only) and thereby support the deployment of renewable energy sources in

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Estonia. Green Energy trademark may be used by the companies, government institutions and residential customers of Eesti Energia who have purchased a Green Energy Certificate.

Increasing energy efficiency, demand side measures

In Estonia the only legal act directly targeted to improvement of energy efficiency is the Energy Efficiency of Equipment Act, which establishes requirements for the consumption and labelling of household electrical appliances. The wider awareness about specific energy consumption of electrical appliances would promote the gradual replacing of old out-of-date equipment resulting in reduced energy consumption and emission.

In 2000, Energy Efficiency Target Programme was approved by the Government. Implementation Plan for Energy Efficiency Target Programme was adopted in March 2001. The current Energy Efficiency Target Programme aims for energy consumption growth to be no more than half GDP growth and CO2 emissions to be reduced by 8% against 1990 levels, mainly through energy efficiency and fuel switching. Energy Department within the MoEAC is responsible for promotion of energy efficiency. It has to be noted that in the new Long-term National Development Plan for the Fuel and Energy Sector until 2015 there is provided a goal to maintain the volume of primary energy consumption at the level of the year 2003 until 2010.

The heat supply in buildings in residential and public sectors can be a significant source of energy savings (Table 4.7.1). In the beginning of 1990ies the potential was estimated up to 30%. In 2002 the MoEAC carried out a study for determining the required energy conservation investments in buildings of 58 smaller local municipalities (with the number of residents under 5500). The results of the investigation indicate that the practical energy conservation potential in those buildings is about 15–20% as an average. Obtaining such reduction needs large investments and is therefore a long-term task. In all sectors, including the public one, similar measures are needed in almost all buildings built according to requirements of old Building Codes. Due to the low loan taking capability the needed investments can be made and relevant measures taken with the very low pace.

At present, the preparations for implementing the EU Directive on the Energy Performance of Buildings (2002/91/EC) are in progress. Introduction of regular energy auditing in buildings with the floor area larger than 1000 m2, formulation of energy conservation plans together with several other measures prescribed in the Directive would certainly promote the efficient energy use in buildings, which in turn will result in reduction of emission.

At the same time, the introduction by the District Heating Act of the zoning principle in the heat supply supports the use of district heating (DH) in larger cities. The Act stipulates the introduction of district heating regions, which are defined as areas determined by a comprehensive plan of the local municipality within which consumer installations are supplied with heat by the way of DH, instead of local heating. The principle of zoning enables the local governments to select the most environment bening solutions for the heat supply in densely populated areas.

The energy planning is being more closely integrated in spatial local planning in Estonia. During the second half of 1990ies the first efforts were made on the basis of the EU PHARE Programme “Investment Preparation Facility, Regional Development and Energy Planning”. In frames of this programme 37 different energy planning projects as pilot ones were carried out in Estonia. It was found that in Estonia there were many feasible renovation projects in the heat supply energy sector. Later various bilateral aid programmes with several countries were used for implementing local energy development programmes. For example, up to 2004, the bilateral aid from Denmark

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was used to carry out the assistance programme supporting small municipalities in Estonia through the project “From Energy Plan to Implementation”. The main goal of the project was the increasing of energy production efficiency together with the promotion of biomass use in the energy sector.

Table 4.7.1. Policies and measures in the energy sectorName of policy / measure GHG affected Type of

instrumentsStatus Implementing

entityPeriod of

imple-mentation

Annual emission reduction

2003-12 Gg (=103 t)

Renovation of Narva Power Plants (2 units) CO2 Regulatory Implemented Eesti Energia AS 2002-05 53.4

Renovation of large combustion plants (excl. Narva PP) CO2 Regulatory Planned,

on-going Owners 2003-12 11.8

Introduction of cogeneration of heat and electricity CO2 Voluntary Planned Owners 2005-12 3.4

Renovation of DH boilers and boiler plants CO2 Voluntary Planned, on-going Owners 2003-12 10.0

Renovation of DH systems CO2 Voluntary Planned, on-going Owners 2003-12 5.3

Fuel switch CO2 Voluntary Planned, on-going Owners 2003-10 2.7

Enhancing of oil shale enrichment CO2 Voluntary Planned, on-going

Eesti Põlevkivi AS 2006-12 10.3

New methods for landfilling of oil shale ash CO2 Regulatory Planned Owners 2003-12 15-30

Installation of new wind generators (up to 75 MW) CO2 Voluntary Planned,

on-going Owners 2004-12 53.0

Renovation of residential buildings (total of 4 Mm2) CO2 Voluntary Planned,

on-going Owners 2003-12 10.3

Replacement of electrical appliances in households CO2 Voluntary Planned,

on-going Owners 2003-12 n.a.

4.7.2. Transport

Regarding impact on environment, the National Development Plan of the Transport Sector 1999-2006 (adopted by the Government in March 1999) has set the stabilization of absolute amounts of GHG emissions from transport by 2005 as a general environment related objective for the transport sector. The goal for next periods is to decrease the GHG emissions from transport. Increasing the share of public transport has been foreseen as a main measure for reaching these targets. Changes in car stock towards new and more environment benign cars and trucks will also give positive impact on emission reduction. The new Development Plan for Public Transport 2006-2013 is in the preparation phase since 2003.

In May 2005 the Minister of Environment established new requirements on environment related properties of liquid fuels (RT L 2005, 57, 803). The regulation foresees the gradual

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harmonisation of these requirements with the ones provided in EU directives. The regulation also established requirements on biofuels.

Regarding the use of biofuels in transport, quite ambitious targets have been set in the new draft Environment Strategy (as of 17 May 2004). The draft strategy foresees the introduction of biofuels to replace increasing amounts of fossil motor fuels. At present, no pure or blended biofuel has been sold or consumed for transport purposes in Estonia. The target share has been set at 2% by 2005 and at 5.75% by 2010.

As to road transport, already in 1996 stricter requirements were set on imported vehicles, but still the major problem is the age of the vehicle stock: approximately 80% of cars and trucks are older than 12 years. The average age of buses is over 16 years, while 23% of bus stock is older than 21 years. According to the Motor Vehicle Registration Centre approximately 70% of bus stock does not comply with the Euro-0 requirements. Nevertheless, exhaust gas norms have been harmonised with those of EU, and the technical inspection system of vehicles have been improved.

At the same time, the reduction of the share of public transport has been the non-established policy for the road and rail transport for several years. The major share of investments has been made in roads and parking places not as much in development of public transport. In the new draft of the Public Transport Development Programme (as of 8 April 2005), it is planned to stop this tendency and to increase the number of passengers by 12% by the year 2010 if compared to 2002. For raising the competitiveness of public transport and increasing its share the financial support of central government and local self-governments to public transport has to be increased. For example, in June 2002 the project The strategy and investments programme of Tallinn public transport for the years 2002–2010, initiated by the Department of Sustainable Development and Planning of Tallinn City, was completed. The objective of the project was to develop a strategy for accessible, environmentally friendly and energy efficient public transport and to draw up a necessary investments programme and relevant implementation schedule. The strategy includes concrete measures for raising the attractiveness of public transport and for keeping private cars away from the city centre.

At present, the drafting of the new development plan for the transport sector 2006-2013 is in progress. Also, according to the Public Transport Act (RT I 2000, 10, 58) the MoEAC has to elaborate and implement a long-term national public transport development plan.

According to the Roads Act (RT I 1999, 26, 377) the Government has to approve the road management plan, which is the financing basis for the annual road management. The current Road Management Plan for 2004-2006 was adopted by the Government in February 2004 (RT L 2004, 24, 369). During last years, the financing of road management has been increased gradually – improving the quality of roads contributes to more environment benign operation of road transport as well.

As to air transport, the Aviation Act (RT I 1999, 26, 376) provides also items for the environmental eligibility of aircrafts. In the Act it is stipulated that the Government has to establish the environmental eligibility requirements for powered aircraft. The environmental eligibility of a powered aircraft has to be proven by a certificate, which contains data concerning the aircraft, the standards that constitute the basis for certification and the numerical values indicating engine emissions of the aircraft. The certificates of environmental eligibility for powered aircrafts are issued by the Civil Aviation Administration.

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The measures aimed at reducing CO2 emissions from the transport sector, presented in Table 4.7.2, are advisory and are not fixed in any governmental document. Drawing up concrete activity plans requires additional financing and research activities. According to expert opinions for the period up to 2012 it would be possible to reduce CO2 emissions from transport by about 115 thousand tonnes, which makes up 11% of the total CO2 emissions of the transport sector in the year 2000.

Among the measures listed, the increasing the share of public transport is the most promising. This includes state subsidies to public transport, directing a large part of the transport of goods from roads to the railway, improving the state of roads, building two-level crossings, rearrangement of parking in towns, expansion of motor-vehicle free areas in town centres, etc. All this would help make traffic more fluent, increase the speed on highways, save fuel and, as a result, reduce emissions into the atmosphere.

It is planned to start technical inspection of vehicles on roads. The Estonian Motor Vehicle Registration Centre plans to start with it in 2007 (in accordance with the EU Directive 98/14/ EC). Mobile measuring equipment allows checking motor vehicles right on the road to remove vehicles that are technically not in order and dangerous to the environment.

Increasing the percentage of new vehicles concerns primarily the private sector. Considering recent statistics on purchases of new cars and assuming that under the conditions of economic growth the proportion of new cars acquired will increase, it can be expected that by the year 2012 new cars (up to 8 years old) can make up 44% of the total number of cars.

Table 4.7.2. Policies and measures in the transport sectorName of policy / measure GHG

affectedType of

instrumentsStatus Implementing

entityPeriod of

imple-mentation

Annual emission reduction

2003-12 Gg (=103 t)

Subsidies for public transport CO2, N2O Regulatory Planned Government, MoEAC 2002-12 32.0

Promotion of railway transport CO2, N2O Regulatory Planned Government, MoEAC 2003-12 34.0

Improvement of road quality CO2, N2O Regulatory Planned, on-going

Government, MoEAC 2007-12 21.0

Technical inspection of vehicles CO2, N2O Regulatory Planned

MoEAC,Vehicle

Registration Centre

2003-12 10.0

Increasing the share of new vehicles CO2, N2O Voluntary PlannedGovernment,

MoEAC,owners

2003-13 23.0

4.7.3. Industry

In Estonia, after regaining of independence, large changes took place in the national economy. The whole industry was restructured and at present there are very few energy intensive manufacturing branches in Estonia. On the basis of the Energy Efficiency Target Programme and Implementation Plan for Energy Efficiency Target Programme some measures in plants, which

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have larger impact on environment, could be identified. Measures in cement and lime production plants can be taken in account. The introduction of new technology increases energy efficiency and results in lower specific emissions as well. The calculations are based on opinions of relevant industry experts (Table 4.7.3).

In Estonia’s industrial sector carbon dioxide is formed mainly in the course of cement and lime manufacturing. Limestone decomposes at heating and carbon dioxide is emitted. By today, both of these manufacturing branches have almost reached their maximum output levels and further growth of output is possible only in case of plant renovation. Some reduction of greenhouse gas emissions can be achieved only through introduction of more modern production technologies.

In addition to direct technological measures some horizontal actions can be identified as measures supporting reduction of the GHG emission.

Increasing number of enterprises in Estonia are implementing environmental management systems (EMS). EMS is a voluntary instrument for improving the overall management of the organisation with the aim to identify and manage the significant environmental aspects. The main drivers for implementing EMS are usually market reasons, but at the same time the enterprises improve their environmental performance by more efficient use of resources, minimization of waste and emissions to air and water. Estonian enterprises have a choice to choose between two environmental management systems: international standard ISO 14001 or European Management and Audit Scheme (EMAS).

The most common EMS implemented in Estonia is ISO 14001. There are more than hundred enterprises in Estonia, which have ISO 14001 certificate. As to EMAS, at present, there are no enterprises in Estonia certified to it. The preparations for introducing the EMAS have been made – the Estonian Accreditation Centre has been appointed as an Accreditation Body and the Estonian Environment Information Centre has been designated by the MoE as the competent body for implementing the EMAS regulation in Estonia. The competent body registers the participating companies and issues the registration numbers and the right to use the EMAS logos.

In 2003 the Estonian Association of Environmental Management has been established with 34 members. Organisations who participate are recognised as making strong commitments to the environment and to improving their economic competitiveness.

Regarding eco-labelling, there is no national eco-label scheme in Estonia. Several food products are labelled with Estonian Organic Farming Label; in service sector the Green Key is used, as well as Blue Flag for ports. Amongst the eco-labels there is a possibility to implement EU Eco-label. The European Eco-label is given to products and services with the aim to promote sustainable consumption and production. At present, the only company in Estonia having the EU Eco-lable is Kreenholmi Valduse AS (Kreenholm Holding Group), the largest in country textile manufacturer.

In 2003 Estonian Green Movement initiated a campaign “Environmental Friendly Product” in supermarkets to draw more attention to products, which are labelled with accepted national and/or international labels (e.g. Nordic Swan, Blue Angel, Estonian Organic Farming label, etc).

Voluntary agreements are voluntary or negotiated agreements between governments and enterprises, which can be defined as guidelines adopted or measures taken in the absence of mandatory regulation in order to improve environmental performance of the enterprise and to enhance corporate responsibility. No financial liability is involved. In Estonia seven enterprises have made a voluntary agreement with the MoE. The Ministry is obliged to inform enterprises

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on changes in legislation and involve them in amendment processes. To improve their environmental performance, enterprises are supposed to implement voluntary environment related measures, which introduce stronger than mandatory requirements.

Voluntary environmental reporting differs from mandatory reporting by its wide range of forms and content of the report. This may range from environmental brochures and policy statements to a periodic account given either separately in a specific environmental report or as a part of an annual financial report. Up to now, a separate annual environmental report has been published by few Estonian enterprises – e.g. by Eesti Energia AS, State Forest Management Centre, Kunda Nordic Cement.

It can be assumed that the introduction of the EU emission trading scheme creates incentives for involved seven energy intensive enterprises to seek the most efficient ways for reducing emissions.

Table 4.7.3. Policies and measures in the industryName of policy / measure GHG

affectedType of

instrumentsStatus Implementing

entityPeriod of

imple-mentation

Annual emission reduction

2003-12 Gg (=103 t)

Efficiency improvements in cement production CO2 Voluntary Planned Owners 2003-10 12.9

Efficiency improvements in lime production CO2 Voluntary Planned Owners 2005-12 1.0

4.7.4. Agriculture

The emissions of greenhouse gases from agriculture make up about 6–7% of the aggregate emissions (as CO2 equivalent) in Estonia. Although agriculture has traditionally been one of the most important sectors of economy in Estonia, its importance has been continuously decreasing after Estonia regained its independence. The emissions of CH4 and N2O from agriculture have fallen during the last ten years by about 60–70%.

For preparing the agricultural sectors and rural areas of candidate countries for accession to the European Union, the programme SAPARD was used. It was approved according to the Rural Development Plan 2004-2006 drawn up under the EU Resolution 1268/1999/EC. This development plan is very important from the aspect of the abatement of greenhouse gas emissions because investments made in the framework of the SAPARD programme were envisaged basically for increasing production efficiency and solving problems of sustainable development in the agricultural sector.

In can be concluded that total emissions from the agricultural sector would not be decreasing in the medium to long-term perspective, as the development of Estonia’s agriculture starts to be supported by various programmes and measures. Estonian agriculture is mainly following the EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). One of the goals of the Common Agricultural Policy is to increase the productivity of the agricultural sector. In the future the grant of direct payments should be dependent on the fulfilment of environmental, food safety and quality requirements, thus promoting high-quality and environmentally friendly production. The objective of all political and other measures is to raise the production efficiency by means of introducing new

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technologies. Investments into technologies and equipment will reduce emissions per output unit but not the total amount of emissions.

For estimating changes in greenhouse gas emission different scenarios were drawn up on the basis of long-term forecasts obtained from the MoA and MoE and according to the National Programme of Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction for 2003-2012 (RT L 2004, 59, 990), it can be assumed, that Estonian agriculture will reach the level of other EU member states with regard of all indicators. The aggregate greenhouse gas emissions from the agricultural sector would increase by the year 2020 to up to 60% of the 1990 level. More optimistic scenario assumes rising production efficiency as a result of increasing investments. In 2000 the average production of milk per cow was 4660 kg, but by 2020 the forecast is 7800 kg per cow. The total annual milk production cannot increase much because of the quotas allocated after accession to the EU, the same amount of milk will be obtained from a smaller number of cows as the production efficiency will rise. It is also necessary make investments to improve the state of cowsheds and manure pits, which will further reduce greenhouse gas emissions. According to expert estimates, the use of mineral fertilisers will not increase so much as allowed by agronomic optimum (110 kg N/ha, organic and mineral fertilisers combined); this is due to high prices of fertilisers and the direction towards organic agriculture. According those assumptions the greenhouse gas emissions should not increase more than to 45% of the 1990 level by 2020 (about 2400 Gg CO2

equivalent in 1990).

4.7.5. Forestry

Approximately 47.3% of the Estonia’s territory is covered with forest stands. The forestry, together with the land use, is the main greenhouse gas sink in Estonia. Nevertheless, the sector has several problems, especially with implementing the legislation and supervision. The reasons are manifold – the forestry policy in Estonia has undergone major changes in recent times. Until 1995 most of forestland belonged to the State. By the time the land reform is completed 40 – 50% of the forests ought to be in private hands. This has made forest cutting a very lucrative business in a situation where state control over cutting and reforestation has been insufficient. Unofficial forestry has been one of the problems in the sector as the state has been unable to put a stop to illegal cutting. As a result, the statistics about actual cutting volumes is of poor quality.

As regards to climate change, it is important to develop and implement a reconstruction programme for land under cultivation which is overgrown and is temporarily not used for agricultural purposes. In the Development Plan of Estonian Forestry up to the Year 2010 (RT I 2002, 95, 552) afforestation of at least 300 thousand hectares of abandoned agricultural lands is foreseen (Table 4.7.4). It will help to bind additionally approximately 1290 Gg of carbon dioxide by the year 2020. Also natural forest growth on abandoned fields is possible. In that case the CO2

emissions accompanying forest planting can be avoided.

Forest harvesting volumes have to be planned considering forest biomass increment. Based on the Act on Sustainable Development (RT I 1995, 31, 384) the Government has to set the limit to forest use so that natural balance and forest reproduction, following protective harvesting regimes and preservation of species and landscape diversity would be secured. To secure continuous carbon dioxide sink by forests, the annual harvesting volume should be at least 1–2 million cubic metres smaller than the current increment. In that case annual sink by forests would be approximately 2000 Gg CO2. It is recommended that the intensity of logging should be reduced. The following measures are considered necessary for making a better use of forests:

gaining control over forest harvesting and securing correct forestry statistics;

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intensification of forest renewal after harvesting; use of forest maintenance methods that increase CO2 sink (e.g. selection of tree species

suitable for the area, maintenance work favouring stock increment). This would enable to increase average forest biomass increment and thus net CO2 sink;

research on the role of forest soils in CO2 balance. Soils may act both as emitters and sinks of CO2. An inventory of Estonian greenhouse gases revealed that the methodology used does not adequately take into account the sink of carbon dioxide by soils. Research has to provide scientific explanation to considering the role of soils in CO2 balance;

allocation of additional funds to research aimed at finding solutions enabling to increase net CO2 sink by forest (including cultivation of tree species with a short harvesting cycle or brushwood for energy).

Efficient implementation of these measures will ensure that Estonian forests will be continuously able to act as CO2 sinks. Several of these measures are included also in the development plan of forestry, which is the basis for developing forestry policy and legal acts concerning forestry in Estonia.

Table 4.7.4. Policies and measures in the forestry sectorName of policy / measure GHG

affectedType of

instrumentsStatus Implementing

entityPeriod of

imple-mentation

Annual emission reduction

2003-12 Gg (=103 t)

Re-forestation of out-of-use agricultural lands (approx. 100 thousand ha) CO2

Regulatory /voluntary Planned MoE, MoE,

owners 2003-10 330

Re-forestation of used mining areas CO2Regulatory /voluntary Planned MoE, MoE 2005-13 20

4.7.6. Waste management

In waste management methane is produced in disposal sites from biologically degradable municipal and industrial waste and as well as in the treatment of municipal and industrial wastewaters. In Estonia, over the period 1997–2001 the emissions of methane from water management fell by about 52% (71.15 Gg in 1997 and 34.35 Gg in 2001).

Waste disposal sites have so far been the major source of methane emissions in the waste management sector in Estonia. To improve the situation, a number of significant measures have been and will be taken. A resolution of the Estonian Minister of the Environment from 26 June 2001 (RT L 2001, 87, 1219) was the first legal act introducing most of the EU requirements concerning waste disposal under Directive 1999/31/EC. After the new Waste Act (RT I 2004, 9, 52) came into force in May 2004, several new secondary level acts have been issued, e.g. the Regulation of the Minister of Environment Requirements for the Construction, Use and Closure of Landfills (RT L 2004, 56, 938). In connection with the new requirements for landfills the number of waste disposal sites was significantly reduced. The National Waste Management Plan (RT I 2002, 104, 609) envisages 8–9 regional waste disposal sites for municipal wastes. After some large waste disposal sites are shut down measures will be taken to further reduce methane emissions. According to the Waste Disposal Resolution, from 16 July 2009 wastes can be dumped only at sites meeting the relevant requirements.

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To reduce the methane emissions from waste disposal sites it is necessary to decrease the proportion of biologically degradable wastes among municipal wastes. Waste disposal sites where biologically degradable wastes are dumped have to be equipped with gas trapping and collecting units. The operators of the landfills have to arrange recovery of methane. The methane collected can be used for heat production and/or power generation. The collected methane that cannot be used has to be burnt. Presently methane is recovered only at the Tallinn landfill in Pääsküla where it is used for combined generation of electricity and heat.

Considering that over the period 2003–2012 the volume of wastes dumped in Estonian landfills will decrease by at about 25% due to recycling part of the wastes and reduction of the proportion of biologically degradable wastes, it can be estimated that the amount of methane emissions from the waste management sector will decrease by about 7.5 Gg by 2012 (Table 4.7.5).

Table 4.7.5. Policies and measures in waste managementName of policy / measure GHG

affectedType of

instrumentsStatus Implementing

entityPeriod of

imple-mentation

Annual emission reduction

2003-12 Gg (=103 t)

New requirements for landfills CH4 Regulatory Planned MoE 2003-07 3.3

Reduction of landfilled waste by 25% (re-cycling, etc.) CH4

Regulatory,voluntary Planned

MoE, households,

local governments

2003-12 4.2

The Waste Management Plan is a dynamic strategic document, which is regularly revised, the activities undertaken are subjected to assessment, and new activities are added to take account of the changing trends and needs. An important external objective of the Waste Management Plan is approximation of the EU and Estonian waste management trends, transposition and implementation of the EU waste handling principles.

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5. PROJECTIONS AND EFFECTS OF POLICIES AND MEASURES

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5.1. Methodology

An effective assessment of energy-related policy instruments requires the use of models capable of simulating the technological change necessary to induce long-term, economical shifts towards a sustainable global energy system(s), while simultaneously representing in adequate detail key energy-economy-environment interactions.

The analysis has been carried out using the Estonian MARKAL model.

MARKAL is a dynamic linear programming “bottom-up” model, which finds the optimal development of the energy system in time under given technology characteristics and boundary conditions. Since its initial development in the late 1970s, the MARKAL model has become a widely applied tool for evaluating the impacts of policies imposed on the energy system. As for any other MARKAL (Market Allocation)-type modelling exercises, the analyses and results reported herein should also be considered prospective, with emphasis placed on the trends and insights resulting from driving forces determined by implementing the respective policy options.

5.1.1. MARKAL model features

MARKAL is an energy-system optimization model that represents current and potential future technology alternatives through the so-called Reference Energy System (RES). The MARKAL model is a generic technology-oriented model tailored by the input data to obtain the least-cost energy system configuration for a given time horizon under a set of assumptions about end-use demands, technologies and resource potentials. It represents the time evolution of a specific RES at the local, national, regional, or global level. The MARKAL models allow a wide flexibility in representation of energy supply and demand technologies and are typically used to examine the role of energy technologies under specific policy constraints, e.g. CO2 mitigation, local air pollution reduction, etc.

5.2. Basic considerations

5.2.1. Forecast of main energy indicators

The development of the main energy indicators until 2010 as forecast in the Draft National Long-Term Development Plan for the Fuel and Energy Sector until 2015 (with a vision until 2030) can be found in the following table.

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Table 5.2.1. Estonian main energy indicators until 20102000 2010

Primary energy supply (PJ) 189 220–250Consumption of oil shale (Mt) 13,2 11–13Share of renewables in primary energy supply (%) 10,5 13–15Share of renewables in electricity generation (%) 0,1 5,1Final consumption of electricity (TWh) 5,4 6,5–8,0Necessary net capacity of power plants (MW) 1980 2200–2500Share of CHP in electricity generation (%) 12–14 15-20Maximum net load of Estonian power system (MW) 1400 1600–1900Openness of electricity market (%) 10 35–40Heat consumption (TWh) 8,5 8–9Share of CHP in heat production (%) 33 35–40SO2 emissions (% of limit in 2008) 181 90–100CO2 emissions (% of limit in 2008) 48 50–55

5.2.2. Basic modelling assumptions

The following basic assumptions were made in all scenarios:

8. Electricity and biomass imports and nuclear plants are restricted.

9. Electricity net export is allowed until 2015.

10. Price of natural gas will increase rapidly to the European level.

11. GDP forecast is based on the actual value of 2000 GDP at market prices, actual growth in 2001 and 2002, and the annual growth forecast from, that in turn bases on the forecast of the Ministry of Finance of Estonia until 2030. The base year GDP and energy data are taken from publications of the Statistical Office of Estonia.

12. All scenarios use low energy consumption forecast. Introduction of large-scale energy intensive industry is not envisaged. A possible future new pulp & paper plant is modelled as a separate unit and it can be closed and easily excluded from the results, if this investment is not actually made. It is assumed that high energy prices will stimulate the implementation of conservation measures in all sectors of economy. Heat consumption is assumed to be stable over the planning period, but electricity consumption is forecast to increase.

13. The planning period is 2000-2030 and the discount factor is 0.05.

14. The number of population remains stable around 1.4 million over the planning period. The number population is presently actually decreasing, but this decrease is assumed to be compensated for by immigration here.

The value of Estonian GDP was 5.584 billion EUR (4076 EUR per capita) in 2000. The annual growth forecast for the current project was taken from (average forecast) and it is depicted in Figure 5.2.1.

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Figure 5.2.1. Estonia’s annual GDP growth 2001-2030

The forecasts of population and GDP used in the modelling are presented in Table 5.2.2.

Table 5.2.2. Forecast of population and GDP

Unit 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Population million 1.37 1.35 1.35 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4

GDP billion EUR2000

5.584 7.469 9.892 12.39 14.88 17.37 19.86

GDP/capita EUR/cap 4076 5533 7327 8847 10630 12407 14188

The primary energy resources of Estonia are estimated as follows:

Oil shale – active resources of the deposit are ca 1.2 Gt and passive resources 4 Gt. Latest research results of the Mining Department of TUT estimate that the resources can last 60 years under current level of exploitation.

Peat – total deposits 775 Mt (annual limit for extraction is 2.78 Mt/a = 31 PJ/a, annual growth is 0.5 Mt/a = 5.6 PJ/a).

Biomass and waste – theoretical total annual resources are 102 PJ, economically feasible annual resources for CHPs are 21 PJ.

Hydro – potential is 30 MW (corresponds to the annual production of 0.5 PJ/a).

Wind – theoretically a very large resource, but its use is involves several restrictions. Considering the possibilities of the Estonian power system and its neighbours to integrate the windmills, the capacity limit is ca 400 MW, which corresponds to the annual production of 0.84 TWh/a = 3 PJ/a. Maximum long-term annual utilization of wind energy is estimated at 10 PJ/a (requires 1400 MW of installed capacity of windmills).

Solar – the estimates of annual utilization vary in a wide range: from 0.5 to 8 PJ/a.

Annual GDP growth forecast

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030year

%

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Geothermal – in principle 0, only ground heat pumps can be used.

All other fuels have to be imported. The existing natural gas pipelines can supply up to 70 PJ/a.

Coal and oil products can be imported via rail and harbours.

Average consumer prices of fuels, electricity and heat in 2003 are presented in Table 5.2.3.

Table 5.2.3. Average fuel and energy prices for consumers in 2003

Unit Value ValueEUR/GJ

Coal EEK/t 857 2.43 Oil shale EEK/t 117 0.77Sod peat EEK/t 305 1.95Peat briquette EEK/t 865 3.35Firewood EEK/m3 sol.vol. 167 1.42Wood chips and waste EEK/m3 sol.vol. 124 1.22Natural gas EEK/1000 m3 1375 2.62Heavy fuel oil EEK/t 2477 3.91Shale oil EEK/t 1898 3.22Light fuel oil EEK/t 4329 6.51Diesel oil EEK/t 6601 9.93Gasoline EEK/t 9663 14.20Electricity EEK/MWh 749 13.30Heat EEK/MWh 343 6.09

The forecasts of tax-free production and import prices (without inflation) of the main fuels for MARKAL modelling were the following:

• The oil shale price 14.2 EEK/GJ=0.91 EUR/GJ will remain constant until 2020 and then it will rise to the level of 18 EEK/GJ. This forecast is based on the information from the oil shale mining company “Eesti Põlevkivi”.

• The import price of coal will be stable on the level of 25 EEK/GJ=1.6 EUR/GJ.

• It is assumed that stable prices of oil shale and coal will slow down the growth of the prices of wood and peat. The production price of peat is assumed to grow from 20 EEK/GJ to 30 EEK/GJ and the price of wood fuel from 13 EEK/GJ to 30 EEK/GJ during 2000-2030.

• It is assumed that Estonia’s joining the EU brings rapidly about the same price levels and its growth predictions for natural gas and oil products. It means the growth of the heavy fuel oil price from 50 EEK/GJ=3.2 EUR/GJ in 2000 to 170 EEK/GJ = 10.9 EUR/GJ in 2030 and the growth of the natural gas price from 35 EEK/GJ = 2.24 EUR/GJ to 125 EEK/GJ = 8 EUR/GJ during the same period.

Forecasts of final energy consumption of industry* (without a new large pulp and paper factory) and agriculture are presented in Figure 5.2.2. As it was mentioned before, the possible new pulp & paper factory was modelled separately.

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Figure 5.2.2. Final energy consumption forecasts of industry* (without a new pulp & paper factory) and agriculture

The transport sector of Estonia as a transit country between East and West is assumed to grow rather fast. The main growth will come from the road transport (trucks, buses, trams, trolleys and company cars) and private cars. The corresponding forecasts are presented in Table 5.2.4.

Table 5.2.4. Forecast of transport energy consumption, PJ/year

2000 2010 2020 2030Railways 2.0 2.5 2.8 2.9

Road transport 11.0 18.9 22.6 26.6

Private cars 10.0 15.0 20.0 24.0

Inland waterway 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6

Air transport 1.0 1.8 2.6 3.9

The household sector was modelled as much as possible on the basis of useful energy consumption. The corresponding forecast is depicted in Figure 5.2.3. In addition to the specific electrical appliances, electricity is used also for lighting, cooking, space heating and water heating.

Final energy consumption of industry* and agriculture

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000 2010 2020 2030Year

PJ

Agriculture

Construction

Other industry

Fuels & energy

Other non-metal

Paper & printing

Wood ind.

Food ind.

Textile & leather

Mechanical ind.

Chemical ind.

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Figure 5.2.3. Useful energy consumption projections of households

The energy consumption of commercial and public services was modelled via final demand of electricity and heat. The corresponding forecast figures are presented in Table 5.2.5.

Table 5.2.5. Forecast of final energy consumption in the service sector, PJ/year

2000 2010 2020 2030Electricity consumption 4.9 7.0 9.7 12.4

Heat consumption 4.6 5.0 5.5 6.0

The reference level of 1990 total CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion is 37.5 Mt. Considering the Kyoto obligation to reduce the emissions by 8% by the years 2008-2012, the limit of emissions of Estonia for the year 2010 can be set at 34.5 Mt. Estonia’s net GHG emissions (including all gases, sources and sinks) in 1990 were 37.2 Mt.

The actual total CO2 emissions were 16.43 Mt in the year 2000. It means 56% reduction compared with the reference year 1990.

5.3. Energy related CO2 emission scenarios

5.3.1. With measures (WM) scenario

In this scenario approved or already decided policy measures are as described in “Policy and Measures). The following basic assumptions were considered in the scenario:

Starting from 2008 our power plants have to comply with the EU directive on the limitation of emissions into the air from large combustion plants. During the accession

Useful energy consumption of households

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2000 2010 2020 2030Year

PJ

Lighting

Cooking

Electrical devices

Water heating

Space heating

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negotiations with the EU Estonia got some transition periods but the existing oil shale pulverized combustion units cannot work after 2015. So Estonia will close these power plants before the end of 2015 in accordance with the schedule agreed with the EU. As a result, only 6% of the capacity of power plants that existed in the 1990s (over 3000 MW) can continue operating after 2015.

Estonia will fulfil requirements on emission reductions and introduction of renewables. The national target for the introduction of RES in electricity production is 5.1% of the total domestic electricity consumption in 2010. Estonian Environmental Strategy and agreements with Finland state that sulphur dioxide (SO2) emissions in 2005 should not exceed 20% of the 1990 level, emission of solid particles must be reduced by 25% as compared to 1995 and NOX emissions should not exceed the 1987 level.

Environmental taxes continue to increase 20% annually and they will reach the European forecast values at the end of the planning period.

According to the Estonian Pollution Charge Act the level of fees for emissions that do not exceed the volume limits were the following (1 EUR=15.64664 EEK):

Pollutant SO2 CO CO2 Nontoxic dust

Oil shale ash, fly ash

Soot and coal dust

NOX

Charge EEK/t

55.2 7.9 5.0 39.6 55.2 79.2 126.4

There are different multiplication coefficients of fees (from 1.2 to 2.5) depending on the location of the pollution source. The fees will rise 5–100 times if the permitted volumes are exceeded.

To fulfil the environmental requirements of the year 2005, reconstruction of two production units of the oil shale power plants with the total net capacity of 390 MW and renewal of ash filters of all units had to be completed in 2004. The new units use circulating fluidized bed combustion technology that raises conversion efficiency from 29% to 34% and minimizes sulphur emissions. Next steps in the new capacity building will be decided after gaining experience from the operation of the first units. Considerable options are also coal, peat and co-combustion of different fuels. It is important to continue research of pressurized fluidized bed combustion of oil shale. Only this technology could provide oil shale plants the necessary conversion efficiency (ca 44%) and emissions reduction in the longer perspective.

Ash removal systems of oil shale power plants have to be renewed before July 2009.WM scenario is conservative concerning technological development of oil shale combustion. It trusts only the circulating fluidized bed combustion (CFBC) technology and does not consider the more advanced and efficient but premature pressurized fluidized bed combustion (PFBC) option.

New power plant and electric grid investments of this scenario base mainly on. This plan envisages partial reconstruction of oil shale power plants on the basis of CFBC technology, but also investments into gas turbines, biomass CHP and wind turbines.

The investment plan states that the power production capacity of Eesti Energia Ltd will decrease from present 100% of peak load + reserve capacity down to 85% of peak load in 2010. As a result of this statement, new independent producers or imports (import is restricted under this modelling exercise) have to cover the rest of the necessary capacity.

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There were no specific “forced solutions” in the heating sector.

Estonian CO2 emissions will never climb up to the Kyoto limit under any scenario. Therefore the additional reduction targets were set in relation to the MARKAL model estimate for the year 2010 under WM scenario. This estimate was 16.52 Mt.

5.3.2. With additional measures (WAM) scenario

In this scenario approved or already decided policy measures are as described in “National Programme for the Reduction of GHG Emissions”. The following basic assumptions were made in scenario:

The long-term objective of the National Programme is reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 21% by 2010 as compared with the 1999 emission level. This includes reduction of carbon dioxide emissions by 20%, reduction of methane emissions by 28%, and increase of nitrogen dioxide emissions by 9%.

Development in accordance with the information given above yields an infeasible solution with assumptions described before.

Instead the following scenarios are used:

a. WAM-LEVEL1 – gradual reduction of CO2 emissions by 1% during 2010-2030 compared to the 2010 level in WM scenario.

b. WAM-LEVEL2 – gradual reduction of CO2 emissions by 15% during 2010-2030 compared to the 2010 level in WM scenario.

5.3.3. Without measures (WOM) scenario

All measures described in 5.3.1. With measures (WM) scenario were excluded.

5.3.4. Comments on results

General remarks:

Estonia has mainly two renewable energy sources – biomass and wind. Hydro potential is only ca 30 MW. Wind power is limited by the balancing capability of the existing power system. The model uses these resources up to their limits.

Future solutions in the Estonian energy system are very sensitive to the price of natural gas. The security of the Russian gas supply is an extremely important factor as well. Here the high gas price scenario was used. The share of natural gas determines largely the CO2 reduction. If the gas price forecast was lower, condensing power plants and CHP plants mainly on natural gas would be built instead of using oil shale. Considering the carbon emission factors (tonnes of carbon per 1 TJ of fuel) of oil shale (29.1 tC/TJ for pulverized or CFB combustion under atmospheric conditions and 22 tC/TJ for PFBC) and natural gas (15.6 tC/TJ) and the efficiency coefficients of condensing oil shale power plants (29% for pulverized combustion, 34% for CFBC, 44% for PFBC) and combined cycle natural gas plants (56%) as well as the lower specific investments and O&M costs and other advantages of natural gas plants, the preference of natural gas is not surprising.

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A nuclear plant was prohibited under the considered scenarios. The Baltic States are still discussing very seriously the construction of a new joint nuclear plant after Ignalina 3 GW plant is closed down. A nuclear plant appears in the optimal solution of energy modelling when it is allowed, emission taxes are high and CO2 targets are strict. It appeared also in the scenario LEVEL1 in the model special test run. A nuclear plant changes the scenario results significantly.

Research on co-combustion of different fuels with oil shale in the fluidized bed boilers of large power plants is conducted in Estonia, but has not been not tested and implemented. The options are coal, peat and woodchips. It is evaluated that the co-combustion of wood in oil shale power plants would require wood import.

This study did not use the electricity and biomass import options as possible ways for reducing GHG emissions.

MARKAL model bases on the concept of Reference Energy System and therefore the representation of energy flows differs slightly from the official energy balance statistics.

Without measures scenario:

Power plants continue to use oil shale as the main fuel. The existing capacity of power plants will be utilized until the end of planned lifetime. During 2004–2010, 200 MW of new condensing and 190 MW of new CHP net capacity will be built using CFBC technology to replace the capacity of the old pulverized combustion plants. Coal will dominate after 2015.

With measures scenario:

Power plants continue to use oil shale as the main fuel. During 2004-2015, 1230 MW of new condensing and 190 MW of new CHP net capacity will be built using CFBC technology. The new capacity will replace less than half of the initial installed capacity of the old pulverized combustion plants. This will raise the average conversion efficiency from 28% to 34%, eliminate sulphur emissions and solve fly ash problems.

The more advanced pressurized fluidized bed combustion (PFBC) technology will not be used for oil shale power plants under WM scenario. This technology could give conversion efficiency of 44% and lower the specific CO2 emissions, but its large-scale implementation is technically questionable today.

At the end of the planning period, a coal power plant will be built.

The total capacity of the CHP plants will increase quite rapidly providing the main future solution for heat production as well. This tendency is common in all scenarios. The CHP potential will be used fully at the end of the planning period in all scenarios, only market shares of different fuels differ by scenarios.

Renewables will be used extensively under this scenario. Wood fuels will reach their resource limit quite fast and the capacity of windmills will reach the limit at the end of the planning period. More extensive use of renewable energy would require import of cheap biomass (wood).

Condensing natural gas power plants will be built starting from 2010. Their capacity will be substantial, but their utilization factor will be very low. They will be used for covering sharp peak loads, balancing wind power and for reserve capacity. One reason for the low utilization factor is the limited possibility of MARKAL model to describe the load curve in detail.

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The main driving factors for CO2 reduction are the improvement of the conversion efficiency of fossil technologies, and increase in the share of CHP and renewables. In spite of decreasing specific emissions, the total CO2 emissions will increase after 2005 due to growing energy consumption. The increase is not fast and the emissions will not reach 1995 level, not to speak about the 1990 level.

Scenarios with additional measures.

CO2 emission limits will be met mainly by wider use of natural gas in high efficiency condensing power plants. Use of oil shale in electricity generation will decrease and PFBC technology will be a considerable option starting from 2015.

The higher the target for CO2 reduction, the higher will be the share of imported energy carriers (mainly natural gas in addition to motor fuels, coal and fuel oils).

The main modelling results for all scenarios are presented in the following figures.

Figure 5.3.1. CO2 emissions from the energy system.

0

5

10

15

20

25

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030WOM WM WAM-LEVEL1 WAM-LEVEL2

Mt

110

Figure 5.3.2. Primary fuel supply for the scenario without measures.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

HYDRO+WIND

RENEWABLES

PEAT

COAL

NATURAL GAS

OIL PRODUCTS

OIL SHALE

PJ

Figure 5.3.3. Primary fuel supply for the scenario with measures.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

HYDRO+WIND

RENEWABLES

PEAT

COAL

NATURAL GAS

OIL PRODUCTS

OIL SHALE

PJ

Figure 5.3.4. Primary fuel supply for the scenario with additional measures – LEVEL1.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

HYDRO+WIND

RENEWABLES

PEAT

COAL

NATURAL GAS

OIL PRODUCTS

OIL SHALE

PJ

111

Figure 5.3.5. Primary fuel supply for the scenario with additional measures – LEVEL2.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

HYDRO+WIND

RENEWABLES

PEAT

COAL

NATURAL GAS

OIL PRODUCTS

OIL SHALE

PJ

5.3.5. Conclusions

During 1990–1993, the energy demand fell due to the economic decline and a sharp rise in the fuel and energy prices as well as a decrease in electricity exports, this resulted in ca 45% reduction of CO2 emissions. The trend of CO2 decrease continued until 2000 and now the emissions are stabilized on more than 50% lower level than in 1990. For the same reasons, Estonia has been able to meet the requirements set in the agreements on SO2 and NOX

emissions. To meet the more rigid SO2 restrictions and growing energy consumption in the future, Estonia must invest in abatement and in new clean and efficient oil-shale combustion technology. Along with the closing of the old oil-shale plants and growing electricity consumption, other fuels will be used. The increase in energy demand then should not be fast due to constantly rising prices and efficient energy use. Measures to reduce SO2 and NOX

emissions will also reduce CO2. In MARKAL runs the Kyoto Agreement level of CO2

emissions will never be exceeded. Restricted availability of imported fuels, acceptability of nuclear power or enabling large-scale electricity import can change the results significantly. The results presented here can also change because the database is being improved.

Real actions will be also affected by their social costs and political considerations not taken into account in the modelling. Substitution of oil shale is not easy. It will bring about increasing imports. Being an indigenous fuel, oil shale creates a sophisticated complex of economic, political, national security, social and environmental problems.

The reference level of 1990 total CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion is 37.5 Mt. Considering the Kyoto obligation to reduce the emissions by 8% by the years 2008–2012, the emissions limit of Estonia for the year 2010 can be set at 34.5 Mt. Estonia’s net GHG emissions (including all gases, sources and sinks) in 1990 were 37.2 Mt. The actual total CO2

emissions were 16.43 Mt in the year 2000. It means 56% reduction compared with the reference year 1990.

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The main findings are as follows:

• Estonian CO2 emissions will never climb up to the Kyoto limit under any scenario. There is no need to buy emission permits in the future.

• Main driving factors for CO2 reduction are the improvement of conversion efficiency of fossil technologies, and increase in the share of CHP and renewables, but also the reduction of grid losses of heat and electricity and energy conservation and efficiency measures.

• This study did not use electricity and biomass import options as possible ways to reduce GHG emissions. Analysis of markets of neighbouring countries and the EU shows that the import possibilities of those commodities can be very limited after 2010.

• Total capacity of CHP plants will increase quite rapidly giving the main future solution for heat production as well. This tendency is common in all scenarios. The CHP potential will be used fully at the end of the planning period in all scenarios, only market shares of different fuels will differ by scenarios.

• Future solutions in the Estonian energy system are very sensitive to the price of natural gas. The security of Russian gas supply is an extremely important factor as well.

• In the scenarios With Additional Measures (WAM), the more rigid CO2 emission limits compared with the With Measures (WM) scenario will be met to a great extent by larger use of natural gas in high efficiency condensing power plants. Use of oil shale in electricity generation will decrease, but the PFBC technology is a considerable option starting from 2015. This shows that it is important to continue the research of pressurized fluidized bed combustion of oil shale. Only this technology could provide oil shale plants with the necessary conversion efficiency and emissions reduction in the longer perspective.

• The higher the target for CO2 reduction, the higher will be the share of imported energy carriers (mainly natural gas in addition to motor fuels, coal and fuel oils).

From the viewpoint of supply and also national security, high dependence of the power and heating sector on natural gas (economically optimal under strict environmental restrictions and taxes) is not desirable until Estonia has only one gas supplier – Russia. Increase of the share of imported energy carriers in the energy balance can probably be restricted by the national foreign trade balance.

GHG mitigation options for Estonia are:

Supply side:

• Change of fuels, especially reducing the share of oil shale in electricity production;

• New clean and efficient fossil conversion technologies;

• Wider use of CHP;

• Wider use of renewables (mainly wood and wind);

• Reduction of grid losses of heat and electricity;

• Possible introduction of nuclear power;

• Import of electricity.

113

Demand side:

• Energy conservation;

• Reduction of energy intensity of production.

• Change of transport policy towards public transport and railways.

5.4. Forestry

Estonian forestry policy is based on the Forest Act (RT I 1998, 113/114, 1872) and on the Development Plan of Estonian Forestry up to the Year 2010 (RT I 2002, 95, 552). These legal acts, however, do not acknowledge the role of forests as GHG sinks and do not provide direct measures to increase the removal of GHG by forests.

The development plan of forestry states three basic principles that may affect the emissions of GHG in the forestry sector:

Forest land area cannot decline below the current level (i.e., approximately 50% of Estonian terrestrial area);The annual harvesting volume should not exceed the annual increment (it is suggested that optimal volume of annual harvesting should be 12.6 million m3);Afforestation of abandoned agricultural lands and mining areas.

WAM scenario grounds mainly on these principles and on the predictions of the Ministry of the Environment (Table 5.4.1).

Table 5.4.1. Forestry activities projected from current data by MoE according to the development plan of forestry

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025Forest land area, ha 2 287 500 2 325 000 2 362 500 2 400 000 2 437 500Growing stock increment, m3 ha-1 5.80 5.76 5.74 5.72 5.70

Total harvest, m3 7 640 000 7 630 000 7 620 000 7 610 000 7 600 000Area ofafforestation, ha 11 500 15 000 15 000 15 000 15 000

In the case of WM scenario, it is presumed that the annual harvest will continue to increase and this is the main reason for the decline in the removal of CO2 by forests. The WM projections for 2010–2025 are made from the actual inventory data.

Table 5.4.2. CO2 emission projections for the WM scenario (Gg)

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 20255 Land -use Change and Forestry

-6319 -7782 -8364 -8554 -7684 -6815 -5946 -5076

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Table 5.4.3. CO2 emissions projections for the WAM scenario (Gg)

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 20255 Land -use Change and Forestry

-6319 -7782 -8364 -8907 -9118 -9367 -9615 -9860

Figure 5.4.1. Projections of CO2 emissions from the forestry sector.

-12000

-10000

-8000

-6000

-40001990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Em

issi

ons

of C

O2,

Gg

Inventory WM WAM

5.5. Agriculture

The most important source of CH4 emission in agriculture is domestically raised animals, who produce methane through enteric fermentation. Manure management is also an important source of CH4, but methane emission from enteric fermentation forms 75% of the total CH4

emission in Estonian agriculture. The main source of N2O in agriculture is the use of fertilisers. As compared with developed agricultural countries, the application of fertilisers in Estonia was in the mid-1990s very low, but during the previous few years it has risen. According to the data from the Ministry of Agriculture, fertilised area will increase up to 500 000 ha by 2020. A very small amount of N2O is emitted by manure management (about 1-3% of the total N2O emission in agriculture).

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Figure 5.5.1. Number of livestock.

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,519

90

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2005

2010

2015

2020

Poultry (10 millions)Swine (millions)Non-dairy Cattle (millions)Dairy Cattle (millions)Sheep (millions)Horses (100 thousands)

Figure 5.5.2. Emission from agriculture (Gg, CO2-eq).

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

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Different scenario calculations are based on different assumptions and basic data. The WM scenario is based on the National Programme of Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction for 2003-2012 (RT L 2004, 59, 990), where projections (scenario B) proceed from the situation

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before EU full membership. WAM scenario is based on latest expert projections from MoA. In the WAM scenario calculations include changes in number of animals (Figure 5.5.1) and in the use of fertilisers. Emission was calculated using the IPPC methodology. The dynamics of aggregated emission (actual and projected) from the agricultural sector is presented in Figure 5.5.2.

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6. EXPECTED IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ANDVULNERABILITY ASSESSEMENT

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6.1. Climate change

Due to the geographical location in a transitional zone between Atlantic Ocean and the huge Eurasian continent, Estonia is characterised by very high climate variability. The air from the Atlantic Ocean brings mild and moist weather in winter and rather cool and rainy weather in summer. The polar continental air coming from the East European Plain induces cold and dry weather in winter and warm in summer. Advections of extremely cold and dry arctic air are the most frequent in winter and spring. Hot and moist tropic air comes up to Estonia only in some extreme cases in summer.

At the same time the territory of Estonia belongs to the regions where the most remarkable increase in air temperature has been observed during the last decades (IPCC, 2001). For example, the annual mean air temperature in Estonia has increased by 1.0-1.7°C during the second half of the 20th century (Jaagus, 2003a) (Figure 6.1.1).It is important to emphasise the seasonality in the climate warming. The increase in air temperature is not observed during all months. Statistically significant increase in monthly mean temperature is present only during the period from January to May with the maximum in March (Figure 6.1.2).

Figure 6.1.1. Time series of annual mean air temperature in Võru (solid line) and Ristna (dashed line), and their linear trends during 1951-2000 (Jaagus, 2003a).

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Figure 6.1.2. Change by trend of monthly mean air temperature during 1951–2000 (Jaagus, 2003a).

Winter warming has caused changes in snow cover and ice regime in Estonia. Duration of snow cover (Jaagus, 2003a; Tooming, Kadaja, 1999) and sea ice cover in the Baltic Sea (Haapala, Leppäranta, 1997; Jaagus, 2003b) has decreased remarkably. The beginning date of ice cover formation including sea ice has been quite stable but the date of their disappearance has shifted much earlier at the end of winter (Figure 6.1.3). The maximum extent of sea ice in the whole Baltic Sea has decreased by 50 000 km2 or 12% according to linear trend during the second half of the 20th century. In general, the end of winter and start of spring occurs much earlier than before. This is the most important change in Estonia that has direct influence on snow cover and sea ice regime, and on ecological conditions as a whole. Winters are warmer with a number of melting periods within.

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Figure 6.1.3. Time series of spatial mean snow cover duration in Estonia during 1949/50-2000/01, its 7-year moving mean and linear trend (Jaagus, 2003a).

As for cloudiness and sunshine duration, an increasing trend is detected in lower, but not in total cloudiness in Estonia. The amount of low clouds has increased in March, June and September while decreased in some observation stations in May and October (Keevallik, Russak, 2001). S. Keevallik (2003) demonstrated that March has been the key month when the climate change has been the most significant in Estonia. It can be assumed that an increase in cloudiness is densely related to a decrease in sunshine duration. A very long series of sunshine duration from Copenhagen are available since 1876 (Laursen, Cappelen, 1998; Cappelen, 2005). The lowest level was found at the end of the 19th century, rising to the highest level in the middle of the last century, followed by a slight decrease in the 60s and 70s and an overall increase from the the 80s to present (Figure 6.1.4). The mean level of annual sunshine duration now is nearly of the same magnitude as in the middle of the last century. All seasons show more or less the same tendencies.

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Figure 6.1.4. Annual sums of sunshine duration in Copenhagen, 1876-2004 (the heavy line represents filtered values using a 9-year gauss filter), Tartu and Łódź (Russak &

Jaagus, 2005). The Łódź series obtained from Podstawczyńska (2003).

The longest time series of sunshine duration in Estonia is available from Tartu since 1901. Substantial fluctuations have been observed during the 20th century, although, no general trend exists (Jaagus, 1998). The sunniest period was in the 1940s. After that, sunshine duration decreased significantly up to the 1980s. The latest increase in sunshine duration started in the 1990s. Corresponding time series for Helsinki, Finland (Heino, 1994) as well as for Riga, Latvia (Lizuma, 2000) show much of the similar features.

Changes in atmospheric circulation over Estonia have taken place during the last decades (Rajasalu, Keevallik, 2001; Tomingas, 2002; Jaagus, 2003a). The most important trend detected is a significant increase in intensity of zonal circulation i.e. westerlies in winter, especially in February and March. Parameters of meridional circulation show an increase in southerly airflow and decrease in northerly airflow in March and in October. Both these changes are related to increase in temperature and precipitation during the cold period.

Earlier melting of snow cover causes changes in hydrological regime. Modelling results demonstrate earlier maximum in river runoff and, mostly, decrease in its magnitude. Water sources in soil will be comparatively small and the drought conditions will appear earlier. A good example of such kind of warm conditions in Estonia was the year 2002 when drought started even at the end of April. Drier climatic conditions in spring and in the first half of summer are projected for the future climate in Estonia (Kont et al., 2002).

Changes in precipitation are the most uncertain. Due to many changes on measuring technique, the higher amount of precipitation is possible to register (Jaagus, 1992). But it is very likely that precipitation in Estonia has increased, especially in winter.Climatic changes in Estonia can be also explained by increased frequency of cyclonic weather conditions and decrease in anti-cyclonic ones. It is illustrated by the decreasing trend in winter mean air pressure (Figure 6.1.5). Cyclonic weather is favourable for storms generation. The number of storm days in Vilsandi, the westernmost station on the coast of the Baltic Proper, has increased dramatically in winter (Orviku et al., 2003) (Figure 6.1.6).

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Figure 6.1.6. Number of storm days in Vilsandi and its linear trend (solid line) and 5year moving mean (dashed line) during the period December-March (Orviku et al., 2003).

6.2. Climate scenarios

Climate change scenarios for the 21st century were constructed following the methodology recommended for regional climate change impact studies. Air temperature and precipitation projections were compiled using a climate model – Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-Gas Induced Climate Change (MAGICC) and a regional climate change database – (SCEN)ario (GEN)erator (SCENGEN). The baseline climate was defined as that prevailing between 1961 and 1990. Climate change scenarios were created for the years 2050 and 2100.

Three GHG emission scenarios elaborated by IPCC – IS92a (central), IS92c (low) and IS92e (high) – were used in the MAGICC model.

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Data from two 5x5 degree grid boxes with medium co-ordinates 57.5°N/22.5°E and 57.5°N/27.5°E cover the territory of Estonia (Figure 6.2.1).

Figure 6.2.1. Location of Estonia in Northern Europe and in relation to the SCENGEN data grid boxes. Location of study areas. Agricultural Experimental Stations: A –

Antsla; B – Olustvere; C – Kuusiku. Voore Forest Research Station. River runoff study sites. Groundwater study sites. Lake Võrtsjärv. Coastal study sites: 1 = Hiiumaa; 2 =

Tallinn; 3 = Käsmu - Vergi; 4 = Toolse - Aseri; 5 = Sillamäe - Narva-Jõesuu; 6 = Matsalu Bay; 7 = Pärnu – Ikla; 8 = Küdema; 9 = Harilaid; 10 = Järve.

The results of the 14 GCM experiments provided a wide variety of possible climate change scenarios in Estonia. Middle emission scenarios projected an increase in annual mean temperature by 1.3-2.6°C for the year 2050 with greater increases occurring in central and eastern Estonia. In addition, warming in winter and spring was expected to exceed that in summer and autumn, indicating a continuation, if not intensification, of the trend observed in Estonia during the 20th century. Climate change scenarios yielding the greatest changes were compiled for the year 2100 using the high emission scenario. All GCMs expressed an exceptional warming throughout the year (Figure 6.2.2), yet the highest temperature increases seem unrealistic for a country at such a high latitude.

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Figure 6.2.2. Annual curve of modelled air temperature in grid box 57.5oN/27.5oE for the year 2100 using the high emission scenario (IS92e) and different GCMs.

HadCM2 – Hadley Centre Unified Model 2 Transient (UK);ECHAM3TR – European Centre/Hamburg Model 3 Transient (Germany);

CCCEQ – Canadian Climate Centre Equilibrium Model (Canada);GFDLLO – Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Transient Model (USA);

CSIRO9M2 – Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Mark 2 (Australia).

The modelled increase in annual precipitation for the year 2050 was generally < 10%, an insignificant change compared to the large inter-annual variability of precipitation. Only two GCMs predicted higher increases of approximately 15%. The greatest seasonal change in precipitation was modelled for winter. Some GCMs demonstrated a decrease in summer (July) rainfall. Increases in precipitation during the cold half-year were modelled by every GCM, but results for the summer season were contradictory.

6.3. Vulnerability analysis

6.3.1. Agriculture

Estonian agriculture is specialized in animal husbandry, which depends on the yields of crops. Since meteorological conditions during the growth period of plants vary substantially from year to year, the yields of crops and grasslands are unstable. Despite a small territory, the soil and climate conditions for growth of plants are extremely variable. For example, in central Estonia the pedoclimatic conditions for the cultivation of cereals are 20-30% more favourable than in northern and south-eastern parts of the country.

The vulnerability and adaptation assessment for Estonia in the sector of agriculture supported by the U.S. Country Studies Program was carried out in 1995. At that time 38% of the total arable land of Estonia was covered by grain fields, and the main cereal was barley (60% of

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the sown area). The impact of climate change on potato and clover-timothy mixture yields was also considered.

The CERES-Barley model was used for crop productivity assessment. For analysis of the sensitivity of barley yields to temperature, precipitation and carbon dioxide level, incremental scenarios were created, combining certain changes in the climatic variables (-2o, -1o, 0o, +1o, +2o, +4o, and +6oC in temperature; 0%, ±10%, and ±20% in precipitation; and 330 ppm, 355 ppm, 440 ppm, and 580 ppm in CO2 level). Using the model, it was possible to simulate the plant development and the yield capacity, integrating the climatic, soil, genotype, and management factors. Unfortunately, the CERES-Barley model is more appropriate to dry and rubbly soils. On Gleysols and on soils with heavy texture, great variation of groundwater level at the beginning of the vegetation period is strongly disturbing the modelling results. In addition to barley, possible changes in potato (main food crop in Estonia) yields were also examined using the results of earlier experiments.

Three case study areas (Antsla, Olustvere and Kuusiku) were selected in different parts of Estonia (Figure 6.2.1). All three areas have experimental stations where special trials (1966-1987) were carried out on four different soil types characteristic of Estonia. These are the following: (1) Haplic Podzol at Antsla, (2) Podzoluvisol at Olustvere, (3) Cambi-Rendzic Leptosol and (4) Base-saturated Gleysol at Kuusiku. The trials consisted of 6-field crop rotation: potato → barley → barley → timothy-clover mixture → timothy-clover mixture → rye.

The data on barley are based on 16 variants of fertilizing experiments. The simulations done with a barley cultivar Julia indicate a considerable decrease in productivity in the case of climate warming (Figure 6.3.1). At the present CO2 concentration level, the increase in temperature without changes in precipitation would decrease the barley yield by 45-48% on unfertilized soils. On arid fertilized sandy soils, a temperature rise of 6oC would cause a drop of barley productivity by even 56-61%. On gleyic and gleyed soils with heavy texture and much better water supply, the effect of higher temperatures is less notable. On dry sandy soils, the barley yields depend mainly on the rate of nitrogen fertilization and the plant water supply. On the other soils, the relative effect of fertilization is less important.

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Figure 6.3.1. Sensitivity of barley yield to climate change on Cambi-Rendzic Leptosols.

The productivity of pastures in Estonia depends on solar radiation, temperature and water supply. The soil and climate conditions for herbage are the most favourable in central and western parts of the country. A temperature rise would increase the timothy-clover mixture yield by 10% in average.

It is necessary to irrigate the sown pastures (100-120 mm on average, in some droughty years even up to 200 mm) to get a maximum yield (7-12 t/ha of dry matter). Such irrigation rates

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may increase the pasture yield by 1.3-1.9 t/ha. In general, the productivity of sown pastures depends on the type of grass sward and the rates of fertilization and irrigation (Table 6.3.1).

Table 6.3.1. The influence of nitrogen fertilization and irrigation on the yield of sown pastures (Viiralt, 1986)

Grass Sward N(kg/ha)

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Grasses

0 1.83 2.56100 4.96 6.52200 7.63 9.27300 8.38 10.58

White Clowergrasses

0 3.03 6.48100 5.44 7.09200 6.25 9.03

Potato is very sensitive to climatic conditions. In general, high temperatures during the planting and sprouting period give a positive effect on potato yield. The temperatures after sprouting and during harvesting are less significant. On moist gleyed soils, heavy rainfalls in spring cause a very strong decrease in potato yield. For instance, every millimetre of precipitation in spring reduces the potato yield by 0.3-0.6 t/ha. However, precipitation during and after flowering gives a positive result.For the analysis of the effect of various climate change scenarios on the national grain yield, changes in barley productivity were estimated by aggregating the results on the tested soils and presenting as weighted mean values over the whole cultivated area of Estonia. As the tested soils of various properties are typical cultivated soils in the country, the aggregation makes it possible to evaluate reliably the potential effect of climate change on the national grain yield (Table 6.3.2).

Table 6.3.2. Aggregation of the CCCM results for barley

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84 0 48.9 -18.4 -0.4470 49.6 -18.7 -1.25

Haplic Podzols, Podzoluvisols, Stagnic Luvisols and Planosols

South-Estonia

68 0 39.2 -18.9 -0.4570 39.1 -19.2 -1.26

Gleysols West Estonia

36 0 11.9 +4.4 +0.0470 11.3 -9.0 -0.34

National 188 0 100 -18.8 -0.4170 -17.8 -1.07

It may be concluded that despite the small territory of Estonia, the soil and climate conditions are extremely variable, affecting strongly plant growth. As the modelling results show, temperature rise would decrease the crop yields everywhere in Estonia. Most vulnerable would be the cultivated areas on dry sandy soils. The fields on gleyic and gleyed soils would

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be less affected. However, the yields on these soils are so low (1.42-3.20 t/ha) and unstable that cultivation of barley is not profitable at all.Earlier experiments using biophysical models for the productivity of various crops have shown that the effect of climate warming is more favourable on herbage cultivation than on cereals. Climate warming would make the potato yield very unstable. It may fall on unfertile and overmoist soils. It is worth mentioning that various potato cultivars have different disease-resistance, which, in our conditions, is of great importance to the formation of potato yield. Unlike herbage, the soil and climatic preconditions are relatively unfavourable for potato cultivation in western Estonia.

6.3.2. Forestry

The RipFor forest-soil-atmosphere model was used to analyse the potential influence of climate change on forest biomass production and nutrient cycling in Estonian forests. The objective of this exercise was to estimate the changes in nutrient availability and nutrient fluxes in the soil-vegetation system. Changes in forest productivity were estimated according to the HadCM2 and ECHAM3TR climate change scenarios.

The main processes addressed by the RipFor model are net primary production (proportional to foliage biomass affected by nutrient availability), biomass respiration, litterfall (including throughfall), litter decay (including translocation of nutrients and of photosynthate before foliage fall), nutrient uptake from available nutrient pools within the soil, ion exchange, and replenishment of soil base cations (Ca, Mg, K, Na) via soil weathering, and atmospheric deposition. The model includes balanced cycles (mass, ion charge) for Ca, Mg, K, N, P and S, and addresses biomass growth for forest stands and forest gaps. The climatic factors included in the model are radiation, CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere and soil, atmospheric deposition of nutrients, air temperature and precipitation. In the model, air temperature, precipitation and leaf area affect the rate of evapotranspiration. In turn, rates of evapotranspiration and nutrient availabilities affect productivity and water use efficiency. Rates of evapotranspiration and soil moisture availability were calculated separately with the ForHyM model.

The climate change scenarios with respect to forest resources reflected obvious trends: a decrease in the snow pack duration and earlier snowmelt with increasing climate warming. The reduced influence of snowmelt on stream discharge would increase the synchronization between precipitation and stream discharge. Soils would become slightly drier during the growing season and, coupled with decreased spring and summer precipitation, increase drought stress. This could increase the forest fire potential, which could, in turn, accelerate species migration. A major species shift, anticipated or not, would make the RipFor calculations unreliable and require increased quantification. However, calculations made with different species compositions demonstrated stability of the model, indicating that minor changes in species composition yield insignificant changes in model output.This study assumed linear climatic changes over 100 years. Calculations presented in the figures below were carried out for the period 1990 - 2100 for a spruce stand at Vooremaa (Figure 6.2.1). Results from other sites showed similar behaviour and the general trends presented here are characteristic of all spruce stands in Estonia.The simulations based on the climate change scenarios imply increased productivity due to (1) increased atmospheric CO2, (2) increased evapotranspiration, (3) increased allocation of photosynthate to foliage, and (4) increased rates of nutrient cycling (increased net primary

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production implies increased nutrient uptake, litterfall, litter decomposition and mineralization).

These calculations were based on reasonable assumptions of net primary production, allocation pattern of nutrients and photosynthates within the vegetation, nutrient cycling rates, but ignored the effects of soil temperature and moisture on organic matter decomposition, soil weathering, and nutrient mineralization and nutrient transformations within the soil (e.g., nitrification). The calculations also neglected the possibility of changing atmospheric ion loads, changing rates of N fixation and denitrification, as well as P-dependent vegetation-soil dynamics. Most of these omissions reflected a lack of site-specific data that could quantify the related effects.Increased nutrient availability, in particular that of nitrogen, clearly favours increased forest biomass. Growth rates of wood biomass under four different scenarios and current conditions for a Norway spruce stand at Vooremaa (eastern Estonia) are presented in Figure 6.3.2. Stable growth without harvesting and natural disasters (e.g. diseases or storm events) was assumed for all calculations. Wood biomass in these calculations included branches, stump and larger roots. The additional wood biomass growth during the 100 year period was predicted to range from 2.5 to almost 9%. We assume a proportional increase in harvestable timber.

Figure 6.3.2. (a) Wood biomass growth in Norway spruce forest at Vooremaa (eastern Estonia) under four different climate change scenarios. (b) Additional woody biomass growth (tons per hectare) in a Norway spruce stand in Vooremaa under four climate

change scenarios compared to growth under current climatic conditions during the next century.

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6.3.3. Water resources

To investigate the influence of climate change on river runoff after a hundred years, a point model (Wat)er (Bal)ance – WatBal – was chosen. The WatBal model requires a large amount of meteorological and hydrological data, which were obtained from the Estonian Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology. Runoff data from 36 river basins were used to model climate change impact. A number of model parameters were determined for each river basin, including the monthly mean precipitation, air temperature and runoff. The data on precipitation were obtained from four meteorological observation stations located near the study areas (Figure 6.2.1). An algorithm was written to calculate the spatial mean values. The monthly mean temperature, as well as the long-term mean values of sunshine duration, relative humidity, and wind speed were collected from the central meteorological observation stations of the studied catchment areas. The runoff data of the lowest discharge stations of the observed rivers were used to calibrate and validate the model. The baseline period for vulnerability assessment of water resources was the same (1961-1990) as for the climate scenarios.

The Estonian Geological Survey has been collecting the data for groundwater regime analysis. The modelling results of river runoff were used to determine possible changes in groundwater levels due to changes in climatic conditions. The time series of groundwater levels reflect the changes in aquifer storage as well as aquifer recharge or discharge. The seasonal patterns of precipitation and runoff in the analysed regions are similar, but the correlation between runoff and groundwater level is higher than between precipitation and groundwater level.

The modelled changes in annual mean runoff for the four climate change scenarios in the 36 studied river basins ranged from -1% to +74%. Modelling results demonstrate the possibility of significant changes in the annual course of monthly runoff caused by climate warming. A significant re-distribution of the seasonal runoff was projected. The most important changes would take place during the cold half-year. Frequent melting periods would decrease snow and ice accumulation during winter. Consequently, the start of snowmelt in spring would be earlier with a reduced runoff maximum.

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All climate scenarios predicted a significant increase in river runoff during autumn caused by increased precipitation. In the western part of Estonia, the runoff maximum in autumn (November) was expected to exceed the spring maximum. In eastern Estonia, typical snow cover conditions would remain but the duration of winter and its stability would decrease.

These predicted changes were not equal throughout Estonia. Figure 6.3.3 illustrates the modelling results for three river basins located in different parts of the country. Runoff changes in the Emajõgi River basin represent the region with the most continental climate in Estonia. The modelling results show that runoff changes in western Estonia are greatly different than in the rest of continental Estonia.

Figure 6.3.3. Changes in the monthly runoff in the river basins of different regions: a – Emajõgi River basin; b – Pärnu River basin (Oreküla station); c – Lõve River basin

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On Saaremaa Island, West-Estonian archipelago, the region with the most maritime climate in Estonia, the hydrological cycle would change completely. With no runoff maximum in spring, the annual cycle would consist of a single maximum (cold half-year) and one minimum (warm half-year).

As a consequence of the earlier spring runoff maximum, the minimum runoff in summer would also start earlier, in May rather than June. Therefore, its duration would increase by an average of one month. A certain pattern is influenced by local conditions, first of all by the character of the spring runoff peak of the rivers. The results of the water resources vulnerability assessment showed a strong dependence on regional changes in runoff and local topography and landscape features.

Examples of modelled groundwater level changes in different geohydrological conditions are presented in Figure 6.3.4. A rising groundwater table would enhance the water supply. The head of the uppermost confined aquifers would rise by 0.5-1.5 m due to the climate change in areas >50 m a.s.l. Wells in these areas with a depth from 60 to 100 m tap the upper confined aquifers and are commonly used for urban water supply. The discharge of these wells usually ranges from 200 to 800 m3/d per a drawdown of 3-8 m. As a result of general increment of groundwater recharge, the safe yield of bored wells would augment by at least 20%. Thus, the required groundwater can be obtained with fewer wells or reduced pumping. Consequently, climate change would reduce the cost of groundwater extraction from upper confined aquifers.

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Figure 6.3.4. Modelled groundwater level changes in different geohydrological conditions: a – Sämi observation area (VK214); b – Väike-Maarja observation area

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The results of analysis of water supply and demand indicated no effect of climate change on water use in Estonia. The groundwater resources can guarantee a sufficient supply of good quality domestic water in all regions of the country. Water consumption in towns and other settlements would be independent of the quantity and quality fluctuations of rivers. Climate warming would also have a positive influence on the ecological state of water-bodies in Estonia.

In recent years, some scientific projects have been developed to study the influence of climate change and hydrological factors on the ecological state of Lake Võrtsjärv, the second biggest lake in Estonia (Nõges et al., 2002; Järvet, 2004). Due to its small depth (mean 2.8, maximum 6 m) and relatively large surface area (270 km2) and drainage basin (3104 km2), Lake Võrtsjärv reflects sensitively the changes occurring in its watershed as well as in the climate

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and hydrology. The lake, in turn, has very strong ecological impact on the surrounding ecosystems. It has also been economically valuable water body for inland fisheries.

In general, the most important problems of Lake Võrtsjärv are fluctuations of its water level and thickness and duration of ice cover during the cold half-year. The worst ecological conditions in the lake can be formed in a combination of low water level (monthly mean below 33.00 m), thick (>50 cm) ice cover and long (>130 days) ice cover duration. Low water level in summer accelerates nutrient cycling, and leads to massive growth of planktonic algae and submerged macrophytes. In winter, it causes oxygen depletion due to a significantly smaller oxygen storage capacity and a higher amount of easily degradable organic matter produced during the vegetation period. The ecosystem of Lake Võrtsjärv is highly sensitive to water level fluctuations, which follow the pattern of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, reflecting changes in climate in the northern hemisphere (Figure 6.3.5). Phytoplankton biomass has been significantly lower in years of high water level and the changes have not been related to nutrient loads. In low-water years, better water column illumination and increased release of phosphorus from resuspended bottom sediments has resulted in substantially higher phytoplankton biomass than in high-water years (Nõges et al., 2002).

Figure 6.3.5. Relationships between NAO index for winter and annual mean water level in Lake Võrtsjärv presented as 7-year moving average values (Nõges et al., 2002).

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According to the future climate change scenarios the warmer and wetter weather conditions could bring about higher water levels in winter in Lake Võrtsjärv. The deeper the mixed water column, the lower the average light intensity, causing reduced phytoplankton biomass (Nõges, Nõges, 1999). In the deeper water both resuspension and denitrification rates are lower, the first reducing the phosphorus release from the bottom sediments and causing lower P concentration while the second causes increased nitrogen concentration. Consequently, in warmer weather conditions the N/P ratio in Lake Võrtsjärv would be higher and N2-fixing cyanobacteria would have less chance to develop. Due to climate warming, the highest mean monthly nutrient losses in spring will be shifted to an earlier period (from early April to mid March) and despite the lower intensity of land use, the winter nutrient losses may remain almost as high as in the past.

In northern Europe, winter is the most critical period, as the greatest changes in air temperature and precipitation are expected to occur during this period. The shift towards earlier spring events in lake ice cover is a global phenomenon that can be observed in lakes of the Northern hemisphere (Magnusson et al., 2000). The positive phases of the NAO are

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associated with warmer and rainy late-onset winters and earlier springs in Estonia (Järvet, 2004). At the same time, local meteorological conditions such as type of snow cover and melting-refreezing sub-periods influence the length of the ice cover period more strongly than the large-scale NAO. In the same conditions, air temperature and warm rainfall significantly affect the timing of snow cover, but do not have too much impact on ice break-up in the lake. In general, the ice break-up dates of Lake Võrtsjärv cannot be statistically connected with large-scale atmospheric circulation. Maximum lake ice thickness is not a good direct measure of the severity of a winter, but rather a complicated function of snowfall and temperature patterns.

6.3.4. Coastal resources

Estonia is rich in different geomorphic types of shores: cliff shore, scarp shore, rocky shore, till shore, gravel shore, sandy shore, silty shore, and artificial shore have been distinguished. Ten study areas containing all these shore types were selected for detailed analysis and assessment (Figure 6.2.1). Risk analysis of potential sea-level rise was carried out in seven study areas. Detailed measurements and observations have been done in three study sites on Saaremaa Island with the aim of recording the changes resulted from increased storminess over recent decades. The study sites serve different human functions and represent a variety of coastal settlements. Thus, detailed analysis of the study areas provides the means of extrapolating the results for the whole country.

Detailed measurements were made along the coastline at 200 m intervals using 1:25000 topographic and geomorphic maps and calculations according to the Bruun Rule. There were some problems in using the Bruun Rule: (1) shoals off the Estonian coasts reduce wave energy and thus defend the shore against erosion; (2) the Bruun Rule was created to calculate erosion only on sandy beaches. Because the US Country Studies Program provides no alternative methods for non-sandy shores, the Bruun Rule was also used to calculate erosion on other depositional shore types (gravel, pebble and till). Therefore, the overfill ratio of 1.0 for sandy shores was modified for the other shore types: gravel and pebble – 0.7; till (shingle-rich loam) – 0.4; and limestone – 0.1.The results of the Estonian vulnerability assessment were obtained from a hypothetical 1.0 m sea-level rise with respect to the Kronstadt benchmark from 1990 to 2100. The data from isostatic uplift measurements were taken into account in land loss estimates at each site. Calculations of relative sea-level rise by the year 2100 took into account the rate of land uplift.

All potential loss from inundation and storm surge zones was calculated at current average prices in Estonia in 1995. The monetary values of three different types of losses was calculated: cost of submerged and temporarily damaged land; cost of actually existing features in these two zones today; and profit theoretically missed from the damaged meadows and forests. The overall potential loss for the whole coastal zone of Estonia was calculated by multiplying the losses of the study areas by four (the coastline length of the study areas provides 25% of the total coastline length of Estonia), and adding the losses in the coastal settlements. The results were presented in the previous communication as an example of monetary losses according to the prices that existed ten years ago. These figures do not have any significance today.

A 1.0 m sea rise would change substantially the coastline contour and the number of small islands. The most significant changes would occur on the western coast, including the

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Matsalu Bay test area (Figure 6.3.6). Coastal meadows and reed beds, characteristic ecosystems of the western coast of mainland Estonia, would migrate inland, but would not perish. Nevertheless, sea-level rise would reduce species richness, because the new sites for developing seashore grasslands are currently arable lands or young species-poor forests, and many of the rare species may not survive the migration into initially unfavourable conditions.

Figure 6.3.6. Inundation and storm surge zones of study areas. Numbers of study areas see Figure 6.2.1.

The main hazard of the rising sea would manifest with modern land use. Today, natural and semi-natural communities are located more often near the shoreline, while cultivated communities and overgrown lands tend to penetrate inland. A sea-level rise would restore the coastline close to its position in the 1700s. Consequently, all plant communities would migrate inland. Unlike in the 1700s, current arable lands, secondary species-poor forests, and cultivated grasslands impede migration of natural and semi-natural communities. The lack of suitable species pools at new sites and unfavourable conditions for migrating grassland species would probably result in a considerable decrease in species richness.

Although dikes protect 1/3 of Tallinn’s coastline, the damage potential is greater than in the other study areas. The most vulnerable area is the Paljassaare Peninsula, which contains over half the potentially submerged area of Tallinn.

The territories most vulnerable to sea level rise in the Pärnu-Ikla study area lie in the north, where silt shores are predominant, and on the densely populated Kihnu Island. Waves during the recent strong storms approached dwellings 300 m inland. Almost 2.5 km2 of the territory of Pärnu, the largest town in this region, is located in the zone of inundation. The low-lying coastal districts of Pärnu were flooded during the last very strong storm in January 2005 when sea level rose over 2.7 m above the mean value. Although no rare or valuable natural

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ecosystems in this area require special protection, the socio-economic impact, particularly, concerning recreational areas, would be critical.A site at risk in north-eastern Estonia was Sillamäe, an important industrial centre. The dumping site of the former uranium enrichment plant was the greatest threat to the environment of the coastal plain and the Gulf of Finland. Separated from the sea by a narrow dam, thousands of tons of radioactive substances containing 238U, 232Th, and 226Ra leaked into the soil and sea every year. Sea level rise and stronger storms would have increased the risk of dam rupture, causing catastrophic pollution of the sea. The dumping site is put into sarcophagi, and is firmly isolated from the surrounding environment today.

Estimates of losses on Hiiumaa Island indicate that 100% of reed beds and 80% of coastal meadows (salt marshes), including rare saline plant communities (Salicornia europaea, Carex glareosa, and Glaux maritima-Juncus gerardi site types, that occur in all successional transitions, are in direct danger. The rare ecosystems of numerous lagoons and calcareous orchid-rich meadows on the north-western coast of Hiiumaa would completely disappear, along with the spawning grounds for trout and lavarets.Warmer winters in moderate latitudes during the last decades have lead to critical changes in the dynamics and development of coastal areas. Despite a slow uplift of the earth’s crust, extensive erosion and retreat of depositional coasts, e.g., sandy beaches, has been observed in Estonia in recent years. In autumn and winter, westerly and south-westerly storm winds raise the sea level up to 2.0 m above its summer level. Because there is little evidence of a rising sea over this period, beach erosion appears to be largely due to the recent increased storminess in the eastern Baltic Sea (Orviku et al., 2003).

The actual sea level reflects the existing equilibrium in the wind regime in reaction with the configuration of the shoreline. In strongly indented and semi-enclosed coastal areas the conditions vary considerably between straight coasts and long tapering bays, leeward and windward sides of the sub-basins, etc. The local sea level differences may be up to 1 m or even more at a distance of only about 100 km. The hydrodynamic reason for that feature can be explained by the dependence of the sea levels on the direction of wind in the semi-enclosed basins.

SW winds prevail above the Baltic Sea with the increase in westerlies due to the climate change over the last half-century. An increase in wind speed from specific directions, for instance 220o for the Pärnu Bay, elevates the sea level in that bay (Figure 6.3.7). The effect is very small in case of low wind speed values but very strong during storm events. The 2 m/s wind speed increment between 28 and 30 m/s yields a 50 cm higher surge (240 cm vs. 290 cm plus background Baltic sea level value which should be added to obtain the final sea level height at Pärnu). Consequently, only a slightly higher wind speed during a storm can produce a significantly higher storm surge (Suursaar et al., 2004).

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Figure 6.3.7. Modelled dependence of the sea levels on the stationary and uniform wind (with 20 m/s modulus) from different directions (a). Sea levels at Pärnu and at a

hypothetical “inland” point (after flooding the coastal plains near Pärnu for 5 km) depending on wind velocity (b) (Suursaar et al., 2004).

The greatest destruction of the coastal zone in Estonia today is associated with stormy periods. Research carried out in Estonia over the last decade shows that the absence of sea ice cover in winter fosters coastal damage. The most exceptional changes in shoreline position and contour in many coastal areas of Estonia are attributable to a combination of strong storms, high sea level and mild (ice-free) weather. Depositional coasts, particularly beaches, are most vulnerable to this combination. As a result, the balance between erosion and deposition is fragile and an initial coastal shape cannot be restored during the intermediate period between storms.

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7. EDUCATION, TRAINING AND PUBLIC AWARENESS

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7.1. Introduction

Climate change education and outreach is key to engage all stakeholders and major groups in the development and implementation of related policies. At COP 8 (New Delhi, October/November 2002), recognizing the need to establish a country-driven work programme on Article 6 of the Convention that enhances cooperation, coordination and exchange of information among governments, intergovernmental organizations, non-governmental organizations and community-based organizations, as well as the private and public sectors, Parties adopted the “New Delhi work programme” (Decision 11/CP.8).

The five-year work programme engages all stakeholders and recommends a list of activities that could be undertaken at the national level to enhance climate focused education and training programmes and increase the availability and dissemination of information on climate change. Climate change education should be linked to environmental education and education for sustainable development. Appropriate training programmes should be organized for different target groups. Access to information/public participation should be ensured.

Estonia has followed these recommendations and in recent years provisions promoting the involvement of the general public have started to appear in the national legislation (e.g. Environmental Impact Assessment and Environmental Auditing Act (RT I 2002, 99, 579)). Through synergies between the UNFCCC and other conventions the cooperation is promoted both at the national and the international level. In the Final document of the National Capacity Needs Self-Assessment for Global Environmental Management in Estonia (NCSA-Estonia, 2004) among the major actions for further capacity building it is also stated that the role of the environmental conventions should be increased in study programmes of all school levels and in continuing education programmes aimed at companies.

7.2. Education

7.2.1. Educational system

The Estonian educational system consists of basic, secondary, vocational, higher and adult education. After satisfactory completion of the compulsory nine-year basic education, pupils may continue their studies either in gymnasiums or vocational educational institutions. Gymnasiums offer three-year secondary general education and vocational education institutions offer secondary vocational education from one to three years on the basis of both basic and secondary education. After completion of both types of secondary education, young people may choose between entering the labour market and continuing studies at the higher education level. Adult education providers support the principle of life-long learning in a variety of different institutions, methods and forms – in that sense the learning opportunities leading to success both in one’s personal and professional life are even wider.

The Estonian higher education system consists of academic and professional higher education. Higher education is provided mainly by universities and professional higher education institutions. Since 1999 some post-secondary vocational schools offer professional higher education programmes. Recent trends in higher education, carried out in accordance with the objective to create a European higher education area, have led to the adoption of a higher education system based on two main cycles – undergraduate and graduate studies.

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Since the academic year 2002/2003 students are admitted only to reformed professional higher education study programmes, bachelor, master and doctoral study programmes. Students admitted to higher education study programmes before June 2002 can continue their studies according to the requirements set at the beginning of their studies until September 2007. Institutions offering higher education may be state, public or private institutions.

In the academic year 2004/2005 there are 532 pre-primary schools, 620 basic schools, 67 vocational schools and 36 professional and academic higher schools.

Providing environmental education is considered to be a priority throughout Europe. There are different terms in use in Estonia like Loodusharidus (Nature Education, Out-door Education), Keskkonnaharidus (Environmental Education) Säästvat arengut toetav haridus (Education for Sustainable Development, Education for Sustainability).

7.2.2. Environmental education in pre-primary schools

Estonia has enhanced efforts to develop and use curricula and teacher training focused on climate change as methods to integrate climate change issues at all educational levels and across the disciplines. As the number of children in pre-primary schools is slightly increasing, it is important to start with environmental projects already there. The children today will be adults in ten years and if they are used to behave in a sustainable way, the ideas will be carried over in the activities of the new generation also in their adulthood. Additionally, informing children about sustainability has positive influence on adults or parents. Our experience shows that it is possible to influence adults via children to be more environmentally friendly because the feedback from parents has shown it. The project “Green Spider” involves children of age 3–8 years. The main aim of this project is to prepare a teaching material about the environment where a fish called Lope is teaching children the sustainable way of living. The project partners are 13 European countries and in Estonia 260 pre-primary and primary schools are participating.

7.2.3. Environmental education in basic school and gymnasium

Having the environment and sustainable development as the underlying themes in the curricula is quite a new phenomenon in our educational system and therefore teachers and heads of schools need advice and training in these matters. To meet this demand, a successful environmental education project for schools, Tuulik, was organized by the Dutch Foundation of Permanent Education. EMI-ECO was the Estonian project coordinator. Partners included also the Ministry of the Education and Research, University of Tartu, Tallinn University, Estonian Youth Work Centre and the Sagadi Nature School of the State Forest Management Centre. The project aims to make students aware of changes in the environment over time and take responsibility for the environment in which they live. The project materials are in Estonian and Russian and can also be obtained through the Internet.

In addition to Tuulik a number of other environmental projects are ongoing for schoolchildren. Internationally, GLOBE is being implemented through bilateral agreements between the US government and governments of partner nations. Among the 109 countries that have signed GLOBE agreements is also Estonia. Since Estonia joined the GLOBE Program in 1995, the impact countrywide has been impressive. The success is also the result

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of extraordinary cooperative efforts among the Estonian Ministry of Education, National Centre of Environmental Investments; the US Embassy in Tallinn; and the Nordic/Baltic Regional Environmental Office at the US Embassy in Copenhagen. The GLOBE Program is a valuable learning experience and promotes science as a communication. The academic year 2004/2005 was the 9th year of the GLOBE program in Estonia. Schools continued the environmental measurements and observations. The number of GLOBE schools in the country has increased to 46; the majority of the schools (27) have reported data during this year. The traditional annual events are the GLOBE student research project competition/conference, and the GLOBE Learning Expedition.

Nineteen schools from Estonia take part in the Baltic Sea Project (BSP) – the first regional Project within UNESCO Associated Schools Project. Teachers have got the materials like Learners’ Guide 1–6. Over 600 pupils from 25 schools participated in the international project Naturewatch Baltic (NW). The Estonian Youth Work Centre organizes every year a contest of environmental research projects for schoolchildren. The best ones represent Estonia on the International Contest.

The idea of the project ÖKOKRATT (www.okokratt.ee) is to increase the environmental consciousness and sustainable lifestyle of Estonian population, especially children. The main goal is to explain the principles of sustainable lifestyle and to show what the human activities cause to environment (causes and effects) and to expand the activities to local governments. The environmental project Ökokratt was started in Kuusalu municipality and has successfully been going on since 1999. Kuusalu municipality has arranged several events in order to raise the awareness and change the attitudes of its residents and especially children, and in order to introduce the environmental situation and improve the situation of the environment. The events have been supported by enterprises, local governments and the Environmental Investment Centre. Enterprises have supported the events by introducing a company’s product or service. Lectures and seminars for children and adults have been carried out. Considering the age and previous knowledge level, different approaches to topics have been used. Future plans are connected with the developing of an environmental consciousness supplementary education system for the staff of educational institutions (schools-kindergartens) and for municipalities in cooperation with Estonian and foreign partners. This project gives an opportunity for young people to develop themselves during their free time (environmental education centre, environmental education portal, eco-camp, cooperation projects with young people from Estonia and other countries and with other similar organizations). The benefit from the project is investment in education and erudition. The more conscious the citizens, the cleaner will become the environment. In the framework of the environmental week events take place in the educational institutions every day and require active involvement of children and teachers (to carry out studies, to make things, to draw, to write poetry, to sing, to move in nature, to discuss, to organize exhibitions and quizzes, to organize a waste disco, a day of clowns, to visit places with problems). The aim is to provide knowledge considering the concrete age group and interests and to include all staff of kindergartens and schools and possibly parents. The project ends with festive delivery of the supplementary education certificates to teachers by the municipality and the trainers

Beside the running projects there is a system of various types of centres whose activities include environmental training. For example the State Forest Management Centre (RMK) has 7 nature centres: Aegviidu nature centre in the northern part of Estonia in Harju County, Pähni and Kiidjärve nature centres in southern Estonia, Kauksi nature centre in eastern Estonia, Mustjala nature centre on the island of Saaremaa, Kabli nature centre in Pärnu

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County and Nõva nature centre in Lääne County. Our best-known educational temple is the Sagadi Nature School in Lääne-Viru County. This system of the environmental education offers more than 360 one-day courses per year and about 14 000 persons (not only pupils but also teachers, parents, school administrators) took part in this education in 2004.

The Foundation Tartu Environmental Education Centre (TEEC) was established in 2002 on the basis of the former Tartu Loodusmaja (Nature House). The purpose of TEEC is to develop environmental awareness and to promote sustainable values of life through training programmes, projects and public information. The target group of TEEC includes children and adults living in Tartu and elsewhere in the southern part of Estonia, also different organizations, companies, the public sector etc. The aim is to influence public opinion towards sustainable development. Different environmental courses are being run by TEEC: nature trail organizing course, ecosystems and fieldwork. It is planned to build Tartu Ecohouse to create a proper home for TEEC in the future. The ecohouse project is being developed in cooperation with Tartu City Government. TEEC’s priority is running projects that promote sustainable lifestyle. The following projects were organized in 2003: training courses for adults (sustainable office and home), Garbage Separation in Tartu City Government, Eco-team Project in Tartu Nature House and Eco-team Coach Training for Teachers in Estonia, Sustainable School, Coordination of Environmental Awareness projects in Tartu County financed by the Centred of Environmental Investments Centre, Children’s Nature Summer Camp, Tartu Youth Bicycle Project, The Green File of Nature in Tartu – a study material project, Tartu Environmental Study materials, activity programmes in nature education.

In March 2003 a contract was signed between Tartu Environmental Education Centre (TEEC) and the US Embassy in Estonia. The US Embassy gives financial support to TEEC for an Environmental Education Development project in Tartu and South Estonia. The main goal of the project is to develop an environmental education system for adults and to run pilot courses. The financial support is also very important for TEEC in order to develop the whole organization.

7.2.4. Environmental education in higher schools

All Estonian public law universities have curricula in environmental education, devoted to sound environmental management, sustainable development, environmentally efficient power engineering, protection of the atmosphere etc. There are similar courses in the private universities. This topic is part of the curricula of the future teacher training but not in all specialities. The positive change is in Tallinn University where future journalists have an opportunity take the environmental education course.

7.2.5. Adult training

There are several adult training facilities in Estonia where one can study environmental subjects. EMI-ECO is one of them. EMI-ECO is a non-profit independent training and consultation organization following the principles of life-long training. The activities of the organization are aimed at increasing administrative capacity and competitiveness of enterprises and raising the educational levels of society.

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7.3. NGOs

The environmental education is incorporated also to the activities of the 58 NGOs. Besides Friends of Earth – Estonia also the European Youth Forest Action Estonia, Estonian Geographical Society, Forest Youth, Estonian Union of Scout Supporter's Societies, Viljandi Youth Society for Nature Conservation, Estonian Ecotourism Association, Centre for Applied Ecology, Estonian Biology and Geography Teachers' Union, Estonian Environmental Women's Union, Tartu Students’ Nature Protection Circle, Society for Nature Conservation of Tallinn; Sorex etc are dealing with environmental education and climate change issues. Peipsi Centre for Transboundary Cooperation is an international non-profit institution, which works to promote sustainable development and cross-border cooperation in the international catchment area of Lake Peipsi. In 2003–2005 this organization launched several small projects aimed at increasing public participation to solve environmental problems in the region.

REC Estonia was founded as a local office of REC in 1995. The task of REC Estonia is to assist in solving environmental problems by encouraging cooperation among governments, nongovernmental organizations, environmental businesses and other stakeholders. The Regional Environmental Center for Central and Eastern Europe (REC) was established by the United States, the European Commission and Hungary in 1990. Today there are local offices in 15 countries of Central and Eastern Europe while the headquarters is situated in Szentendre in Hungary.

Stockholm Environment Institute Tallinn Center (SEI-Tallinn) is a non-governmental, non-profit foundation, founded by SEI and registered under the Estonian law in 1992.

The mission of SEI-Tallinn is to direct the decision-making on the community development and environment towards balance and sustainability. One of the programme areas is Climate, Energy and Atmosphere. SEI-Tallinn conducts applied research and consults international organizations, governments and private organizations in the areas of the community development and environment.

Estonian Green Movement-FoE is a non-governmental, non-profit environmental organization. It was founded in 1988 as one of the first environmental NGOs in Estonia that started to deal with a wide range of environment and development issues. In its activities the Estonian Green Movement-FoE is backed by a nationwide active network of some 600 individual members.

Currently the Estonian Green Movement-FoE is one of the most influential environmental groups in Estonia, advocating for the environmental needs of Estonia’s inhabitants. Estonian Green Movement-FoE has adopted the mission of responding to the regional environmental problems brought about by the political and social changes, and protecting Estonian natural resources at grass root, national and international levels. Its activities are carried out in the framework of seven permanent working groups, which are dealing with following issues: Consumption, Energy and Atmosphere, Forestry, Transport, Water and Youth.

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7.4. Green Energy and Estonian Fund for Nature

Each Green Energy customer supports the Estonian Fund for Nature (ELF). The customer donations to ELF uses these funds to finance the projects of ELF related to nature conservation, environmental education and sustainable development. The Estonian Fund for Nature was founded in Tartu on 1 February 1991 as a non-profit NGO for the implementation of and fund-raising for environmental projects.

Since its foundation, ELF has participated in establishing nature protection territories with the total area of almost 100 000 ha, among them Karula and Soomaa National Parks, and Puhatu and Lower Pedja Nature Reserves. Today, ELF’s main lines of activity are sustainable forest management, environmental education and sustainable development. In environmental protection, ELF collaborates with several international organizations, the most important of which are the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) in Sweden, Denmark and Finland, Danish Environmental Assistance to Eastern Europe (DANCEE), forest protection organizations Smartwood (US) and Nepenthes (Denmark).

ELF's cooperation partners in Estonia are the Ministry of the Environment, Estonian Institute for Sustainable Development, Friends of the Earth – Estonia, Estonian Ornithological Society, Estonian Youth Nature Protection Association, the City Governments of Tartu and Tallinn and several other local authorities, universities etc.

Alkranel LCC. The main tasks of this organization are promotion of environmental awareness and involvement of the public in environmental issues. The environmental specialists of Alkranel have an educational background of environmental engineering from the University of Tartu. Alkranel offers environmental consultation services in water and waste treatment technologies, water and waste management, environmental management, environmental impact assessment, environmental research and raising environmental awareness.

7.5. Research

During the reporting period the Estonian Science Foundation and Ministry of Education and Research have financed more than 54 research projects that are connected with climate studies. The spectrum of these studies is very wide the studies being connected with the atmospheric circulation processes, ionization, analyses of satellite images and climate modelling. Investigations of this kind are the main goal of the research groups from the National Institute of Hydrology and Meteorology, Tartu Observatory and the Institute of Geography of the University of Tartu.

The interaction of water and terrestrial ecosystems and their response to climate change are the basic interest of researchers from the Estonian Agricultural University. Climate and the environment of the Earth are under increasing pressure of anthropogenic activity, which is likely to provoke climate warming, frequent droughts and other stresses that decrease the stability of forest ecosystems. The case studies reported consistent increasing trends in general height growth, as well as diameter growth of different tree species in Central and Western Europe. The same trends are traced also in Estonia. According to the forest inventory data the site index of Estonian forests was found to have increased during the last decades. The increasing trends in air temperature and precipitation, detected in meteorological time series

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in Estonia, may be partly responsible for the annual increase of tree growth. Results of the study should show trends in site conditions and in the growth of economically important coniferous stands. A better understanding of altered growth conditions may be useful for planning forest regeneration, for adjusting thinning regimes and final cutting strategies, and for forest policy makers to ensure continuous sustainable management.

Climate warming may cause also changes in the matter cycling of the lake ecosystems. A research group from the Institute of Ecology at Tallinn University is studying the processes in the past to better predict the future trends. Scientists from the Limnological Centre of the Estonian Agricultural University are following the present situation in small and large lakes of Estonia.

During the reporting period the studies concerning the effect of climate change on the Baltic Sea and the Estonian coast continued at the Marine Institute at the University of Tartu, Marine Systems Laboratory of Tallinn University of Technology and the Institute of Ecology at Tallinn University.

Owing to a relatively long coastline (3800 km) and flat and low-lying bays, frequent and strong storms resulting from climate change and combined with sea-level rise could destroy many valuable ecosystems in the coastal areas of Estonia. Extensive erosion and destruction of depositional coasts, e.g. sandy beaches, has been observed in Estonia in recent years. The basic research theme of the Department of Landscape Ecology of the Institute of Ecology “Climate change impact on the structure and functioning of wetlands” is focusing the impact of increased storminess on different shore types. The project originates from Agenda 21 and several other international agreements that clearly call for more integrated management of coastal and ocean resources.

As an example of applied research projects connected with the climate change impact is the breeding of new potato and fruit varieties that are resistant to changing climate conditions. Studies on the phenological trends connected with climate change are an interesting topic that is studied by researchers from the Institute of Geography of the University of Tartu. This project is part of the larger R&D project of the 5th Framework. There are also other international cooperational research projects on climate change topics.

7.6. Cooperation at international level

The Århus Convention is an agreement made in Denmark in 1998, which was signed by Estonia in June of the same year and ratified by the Estonian Parliament in 2001. The idea of the convention is to give the general public an opportunity to receive information and contribute to making environmental decisions and, if necessary, have recourse to the court in these matters. The aim of the organization is to prepare for the implementation of the Access to Information Directive and the Aarhus Convention: The activities inside the organization are connected with producing a leaflet for the public on the right to information & public participation and to train Regional Environmental Services in public participation activities. The legal framework to ensure access to environmental information and public participation in the decision-making process has been prepared and guidelines for public officials on procedures for responding to information requests and how the authorities can organize public participation activities have been produced.

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7.6.1. Joint projects with EU

As a member state of the European Union, Estonia will have the opportunity to take part in the regional policy of the Community and to receive financial assistance from the EU budget. The EU regional policy aims to ensure rapid, socially and regionally balanced and sustainable economic development. Another aim is to reduce social and economic disparities between various regions of the Community.

There are several Structural Funds that support the EU structural policy and that can be connected with climate change education as well: * European Social Fund (ESF), supporting promotion of skills of employees and jobseekers and promotion of employment; * European Regional Development Fund (ERDF), supporting economic development through promotion of business environment, modernization of infrastructure and creation of new jobs; * European Agricultural Guidance and Guarantee Fund (EAGGF), supporting reorganization of agriculture and rural life.These funds are implemented in Estonia on the basis of the Estonian National Development Plan (NDP). In this document, structural assistance and development aims are broken down by four priorities: Human Resource Development; Competitiveness of Enterprises; Agriculture, Fisheries and Rural Development and Infrastructure and Local Development

The Archimedes Foundation is an independent body established by the Estonian government in 1997 with the objective to coordinate and implement different EU programmes and projects in the field of training, education, research, technological development and innovation. Estonian schools have used the opportunities to participate in EU programmes and have got financial support there. In 2003, 20 schools participated in the subprogramme Comenius of the Socrates programme. For example, Kuressaare Gymnasium has the project “Open the School to Your Environment”, whose main aim is to analyse and improve the environmental education considering local and regional peculiarities.

The Baltic Environmental Forum (BEF) was founded by the Baltic Ministries of the Environment, Germany and the European Commission as a technical assistance project aiming at strengthening the cooperation among the Baltic environmental authorities. To keep the networks active and to implement more projects in the Baltic Sea Region, in 2003 the BEF team founded NGOs in Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania and Germany. BEF organizes workshops and meetings for the stakeholders to raise their awareness and knowledge about the emissions trading scheme and practical implementation of the requirements.

7.7. Cooperation at national levels

The Sustainable Development Committee approved the Estonian sustainable development strategy “Sustainable Estonia 21” on 14 September 2005. This enables the Ministry of the Environment to submit the strategy to the Government of the Republic for approval.

“Sustainable Estonia 21” (SE21) is a strategy for the development of the Estonian state and society until 2030. The strategy creates the general framework for interconnecting the social, economic and environmental spheres in terms of long-term development of the society and defines the general objective of the development for Estonia as movement towards the so-

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called knowledge-based society. The long-term objectives of development determined in the strategy are: vitality of the Estonian cultural sphere (maintaining national traditions), greater well-being, coherent society (without sharp social conflicts) and ecological balance. Knowledge-based society is a type of comprehensive social order marked by a new operating and decision-making culture in which the achievement of commonly set and accepted objectives is based mainly on knowledge and analysis.

By approving the SE21 and achieving its aims Estonia takes part in shaping the development policy of the European Union as well as the whole world. The preparation of the strategy was coordinated by a consortium led by Tallinn University (TLU) and consisting of TLU, TLU Institute of International and Social Studies, TLU Institute of Ecology, and AS Lõhmus, Haavel and Viisemann. It was an extensive and open process during which all materials were available for commenting to all interested parties at the Ministry Internet address under the heading Sustainable Development/Estonia.

The preparation of the Estonian strategy of sustainable development called “Sustainable Estonia 21” was based on the initial tasks approved by the Government of the Republic in 2002 and the project was led by the Sustainable Development Committee. Estonia 21 website houses an organized collection of publications, references, events, projects and links related to sustainable development in Estonia and around the world. The site is in Estonian and English and the target audience is mainly local governments, community planners, NGOs and anyone interested in sustainable development.

7.7.1. Cooperation between the ministries

The Ministry of the Environment and the Ministry of Education and Research aim at promoting education supporting sustainable development, including nature and environmental education. On the basis of this preliminary task the priorities of environmental education, related activities and spheres of responsibility of ministries will be specified for the years ahead. The development of a national concept of education supporting sustainable development, including nature and environmental education, will be launched in order to integrate the aforesaid education into the curricula of schools of general education. The concept will be developed by a working group of environmental education and education supporting sustainable development established under the Ministry of Education and Research. Representatives of the both ministries, citizens’ associations and scientific research establishments will participate in the work of this working group promoting activities related to nature education, environmental education and education supporting sustainable development in cooperation with NGOs. Regular communication of environmental information through the media, including the promotion of economical and environmentally friendly consumption habits and behaviour will be conducted.

The objective is to include means provided specially for environmental activities in the capitation fee of every pupil, to ensure that in schools of general education pupils get to know the nature in practice and are engaged in practical environmental activities, and thereby implement the course Environment and Sustainable Development, which is inherent in the curricula. In addition, one of the objectives is to restore a network of environmental education support centres for both children and adults.

149

Some existing national resources for priority activities

The Environmental Investment Centre (EIC) was established based on the law about using the money gained from the usage of the environment (RT I 1999, 54, 583) and the law about its amendment (RT I 1999, 101, 905). EIC is under the governance area of the Ministry of Finance. The decision to establish EIC was signed by the Minister of Finance on 11 May 2000. EIC was added to the registry of non-profit making organizations and other foundations on 2 June 2000. The main activities of EIC are as follows:

• Using the money gained from the usage of the environment to the development of national environmental projects;

• Filling the assignment of the Implementing Agency for European Regional Development Fund project;

• Filling the assignment of the Implementing Agency for the European Union Cohesion Fund projects,

• Offering long-term loans to environmental projects.

Figure 7.7.1. Grant financed projects expenses in Environmental awareness program (1 EUR=15.64664 EEK).

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

2000 2001 2002 2003

Thousands kroons

The programme of the environmental awareness financed by EIC includes hundreds of projects with the main aim to promote environmental education in schools (Figure 7.7.1). Great attention is paid to the issuing of various publications and other study materials. To raise and maintain interest among the public, support was provided to the organization of the regular Nature Conservation Months and Forest weeks. The project of environmental pages in county newspapers is continued. This project has three main tasks: to introduce the staff and duties of local environmental departments, to explain laws and regulations and to answer frequent questions concerning regional environmental protection. It is also intended to educate people and to make them think about environmental issues. One project was to establish a network of cooperation partners in counties. County cooperation partners of EIC are non-profit associations and NGOs; the network will also increase the involvement of the third sector in promoting environmental awareness.

One of the most reliable ways to bring environmental information to people is television. Therefore EIC supported environmental broadcasts produced by three different TV

150

programmes. From the total budget of the environmental awareness subordinate programmes the media got 35%, various publications 26%, youth projects 24% and national campaigns 15%. EIC financed also the publication of the Estonian nature magazines that unites naturalists of several generations and also of different levels.

The Ministry of the Environment is going to determine the most environmentally friendly organizations. The objective of the competition is to acknowledge the efforts and investments of Estonian enterprises and organizations in reducing pollution. The competition also aims at promoting clean production and sustainable development. In 2004 the winners were Eesti Energia AS (energy company), AS Rakvere Lihakombinaat (meat processing plant) and AS Harku Karjäär (quarry).

The cooperation agreement between the Ministry of the Environment and Tallinn University covers a wide scope of issues such as the training of environmental specialists and experts. It is important to spread the attitude of environmental sustainability and awareness among young teachers so that they would pass it on to the next generations.

7.8. Outlook for implementation in the field of education, training and public awareness

There are many barriers to strengthening climate change education and outreach activities as well as issues that need attention, including:– Shortage of funding and technical skills;– Weak political support;– Linguistic differences;– More products are needed in local languages;– More tools should be developed for exchanging information;– Local funding needs to be found;– Involvement of high-level policy-makers needs to be enhanced;– Important role of the media should be made better use of;– Priority could be given to strengthening regional cooperation; – Synergy with other environmental conventions could be promoted;– Countries could consider developing and sharing replicable templates.

151

8. References

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Communications. Tallinn 2005, 58 pp (draft). www.mkm.ee 12. Development Plan of Estonian Forestry up to the Year 2010 (RT I 2002, 95, 552).13. Directive 1999/31/EC.14. Directive 2001/77/EC.15. Directive 2001/80/EC.16. Directive 2001/80/EC.17. Directive 2002/91/EC18. Directive 2003/30/EC.19. Directive 2003/96/EC.20. Directive 2004/74/EC.21. Directive 94/63/EC.22. District Heating Act (RT I 2003, 25, 154).23. Draft National Long Term Development Plan for Fuel and Energy Sector until 2015 (with

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152

41. Environmental Report 2002. Eesti Energia, Tallinn, 2003. http://www.energia.ee/documents/ed20248dbc548d5.pdf

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55. Forest Act (RT I 1998, 113/114, 1872).56. Green Paper: Towards a European strategy for the security of energy supply. Commission

of the European Communities, Brussels, 2000.57. Greenhouse Gas Inventory Workbook. 1994. Vol.1. 2 and 3. IPCC, Washington D.C.58. Greenhouse Gas Inventory Workbook. 1995. Vol. 1. 2 and 3. IPCC, Washington D.C.59. Greenhouse Gas Inventory Workbook. 1996. Vol. 1. 2 and 3. IPCC, Washington D.C.60. Haapala, J., Leppäranta, M. 1997. The Baltic Sea ice season and the changing climate.

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Finnish Meteorological Institute Contributions, No. 12, Finnish Meteorological Institute, 209 pp.

62. http://finants.tervishoiuprojekt.ee/docs/est/Rahandusministeeriumi_prognoos_aastani_2030.pdf (in Estonian).

63. http://roheline.energia.ee/eng/ge_certificate_sales.html 64. IEA (International Energy Agency) (2005). The Energy Technology Systems Analysis

Programme (ETSAP). http://www.etsap.org65. Implementation Plan for Energy Efficiency Target Programme.66. Implementation Plan of the Target Programme of Energy Conservation for the period

2001-2005. Adopted by Government of Estonia on March 6, 2001. (In Estonian) .http://www.mkm.ee/dokumendid/Energias22stu_sihtprogrammi_rakenduskava.doc

67. Integrated Pollution Prevention and Control Act (RT I 2001, 85, 512).68. Jaagus, J. 1992. Periodicity of precipitation in Estonia. Estonia. Man and Nature.

(Eds. T. Kaare et al.). Estonian Geographical Society, Tallinn, pp. 43-53.69. Jaagus, J. 1998. Climatic fluctuations and trends in Estonia in the 20th century and

possible climate change scenarios. In Climate Change Studies in Estonia, Kallaste,T. Kuldna, P. (eds). Tallinn: Stockholm Environment Institute, 7-12.

70. Jaagus, J., 2003a. Kliimamuutuse tendentsid Eestis 20. sajandi teisel poolel seostatuna muutustega atmosfääri tsirkulatsioonis. Publicationes Instituti Geographici Universitatis Tartuensis, 93, 62-78.

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71. Jaagus, J., 2003b. Muutused Eesti rannikumere jääoludes 20. sajandi teisel poolel. Publicationes Instituti Geographici Universitatis Tartuensis, 93, 143-152.

72. Järvet, A., 2004. Influence of hydrological factors and human impact on the ecological state of shallow Lake Võrtsjärv in Estonia. Dissertationes Geographicae Universitatis Tartuensis 19, 231 p.

73. Keevallik, S., 2003. Changes in spring weather conditions and atmospheric circulation in Estonia (1955-95). Int. J. Climatol., 23, 263-270.

74. Keevallik, S., Russak, V., 2001. Changes in the amount of low clouds in Estonia(1955-1995). Int. J. Climatol., 21, 389-397.

75. Kont, A., Jaagus, J., Oja, T., Järvet, A., Rivis, R. 2002. Biophysical impacts of climate change on some terrestrial ecosystems in Estonia. – GeoJournal, 57, 3, 141-153.

76. Kull, A., Mikk, I., Ots, A. 1974. Heat Engineering, Tallinn, 494 pp. (in Estonian).77. Kyoto Protocol.78. Laursen, E.V., Cappelen, J., 1998. Observed Hours of Bright Sunshine in Denmark – with

Climatological Standard Normals, 1961-90. DMI Technical Report 98-4, 1998.79. Liik O., Landsberg M., Oidram R. About Possibilities to Integrate Wind Farms into Estonian

Power System. Proc. of Fourth International Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power and Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Farms, 20-21 October 2003, in Billund, Denmark. Stockholm: Royal Institute of Technology KTH, 2003.

80. Liquid Fuel Act (RT I 2003, 21, 127).81. Lizuma, L. 2000. An analysis of a long-term meteorological data series in Riga.

Geographical articles/ Folia Geographica VIII. Living with Diversity in Latvia, Rīga, Societas Geographica Latviensis, 53-60.

82. Long-term National Development Plan for the Fuel and Energy Sector until 201583. Long-term National Development Plan for the Fuel and Energy Sector until 201584. Magnusson, J.J., Robertson, D.M., Benson, B.J., Wynne, R.H., Livingstone, D.M., Arai,

T., Assel, R.A., Barry, R.G., Card, V., Kuusisto, E., Granin, N.G., Prowse, T.D., Stewart, K.M. and V.S.Vuglinski, 2000. Historical trends in lake and river ice cover in the Northern hemisphere. Science, 289, 1743-1746.

85. National Allocation Plan (RT I 2005, 6, 22).86. National Development Plan of the Transport Sector 1999-2006.87. National Energy Conservation Programme and Action Plan for Energy Conservation

Programme.88. National Environmental Action Plan.89. National Environmental Strategy (RT I 1997, 26, 390).90. National Programme for Phasing out the Ozone Depleting Substances (RT L 1999, 79,

988).91. National Programme for the Reduction of Greenhouse Gas Emissions for the years 2003-

2012.92. National Programme of Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction for 2003-2012 (RT L 2004,

59, 990).93. National Programme on Reduction of Pollutant Emissions from Large Combustion Plants

(for 1999 – 2003).94. National Transport Development Plan for 2005–2010.95. Nature Conservation Act (RT I 2004, 38, 258).96. NCSA-Estonia, 2004.97. Nõges, T., Järvet, A., Laugaste, R., Loigu, E., Tõnno, I., Nõges, P., 2002. Consequences

of catchment processes and climate change on the ecological status of large shallow temperate lakes. Symposium on Conservation, Restoration and Management of Aquatic Ecosystems. Bangalore, 159-171.

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98. Nõges, T., Nõges, P., 1999. The effect of extreme water level decrease on hydrochemistry and phytoplankton in a shallow eutrophic lake. Hydrobiologia, 408/409, 277-283.

99. Organic Farming Act (RT I 2001, 42, 235).100.Orviku, K., Jaagus, J., Kont, A., Ratas, U., Rivis, R., 2003. Increasing activity of coastal

processes associated with climate change in Estonia.Journal of Coastal Research, 19, 364-375.

101.Plan of investments of Eesti Energia Ltd 2004-2018. Eesti Energia. Tallinn, 2004.(In Estonian). www.energia.ee

102.Podstawczyńska, A., 2003. Variability of sunshine duration in Łódź in 1951-2000. Man and Climate in the 20th Century, Studia Geograficzne, 75, Acta Universitatis Wratislaviensis, 2542, 282-291.

103.Possibilities for increasing the share of renewables in the electricity production in Estonia. Report to Ministry of Economic Affairs and Communications of Estonia. Tallinn: Dept. of Electrical Power Engineering of Tallinn University of Technology, 2003.(In Estonian).

104.Possible energy sector trends in Estonia. Context of climate change./Edited by T. Kallaste, O. Liik and A. Ots. Tallinn, Stockholm Environment Institute Tallinn Centre, Tallinn Technical University, 1999. 190 pp. (ISBN: 9985-9114-6-6). http://www.seit.ee/download/possible_energy_sector.zip

105.Public Transport Act (RT I 2000, 10, 58).106.Public Transport Development Programme.107.Requirements for the Construction, Use and Closure of Landfills (RT L 2004, 56, 938).108.Road Management Plan for 2004-2006.109.Roads Act (RT I 1999, 26, 377) (RT L 2004, 24, 369). 110.RT 1992, 26, 349.111.RT I 1999, 101, 905.112.RT I 1999, 54, 583.113.RT I 2005, 4, 14.114.RT II 2002, 26, 111.115.RT L 2001, 87, 1219.116.RT L 2005, 57, 803.117.Rural Development Plan 2004-2006 drawn up under the EU Resolution 1268/1999/EC.118.Statistical Yearbook of Estonia. 2004. Statistical Office of Estonia, Tallinn, 463 pp.119.Sustainable Development Act (RT I 1995, 31, 384).120.Suursaar, Ü., Kont, A., Jaagus, J., Orviku, K., Ratas, U. Rivis, R. Kullas, T. 2004. Sea

level rise scenarios induced by climate change, and their consequences for the Estonian seacoast. In: Risk Analysis IV, Brebbia, C.A. (ed). WIT Press, Southampton, Boston, 333-343.

121.Target Programme of Energy Conservation. Adopted by Government of Estonia on January 4, 2000. (In Estonian). http://www.mkm.ee/dokumendid/Energias22stu_sihtprogramm.pdf

122.The Directive 2004/74/EC.123.The Estonian Motor Vehicle Registration Centre plans.124.The Estonian National Development Plan for the Implementation of the EU Structural

Funds – Single Programming Document 2004-2006 (SPD) (RT L 2004, 19, 312).125.The National Waste Management Plan (RT I 2002, 104, 609).126.The Pollution Charge Act (RT I 1999, 24, 361).127.The strategy and investments programme of Tallinn public transport for the years 2002–

2010.128.The Transport Development Plan for 1999–2006.

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129.Tomingas, O., 2002. Relationship between atmospheric circulation indices and climate variability in Estonia. Boreal Environment Research, 7, 463-469.

130.Tooming, H., Kadaja, J., 1999. Climate changes indicated by trends in snow cover duration and surface albedo in Estonia. Meteorol. Zeitschrift, N. F. 8, 16-21.

131.Value Added Tax Act (RT I 2001, 64, 368).132.Waste Act (RT I 2004, 9, 52).133.www.okokratt.ee134.www.stat.ee

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ANNEXES

ANNEXSUMMARY 1.B SHORT SUMMARY REPORT FOR NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORIES (IPCC TABLE 7B) Estonia

(Sheet 1 of 1) 1990

GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND SINK CO2 CH4 N2O HFCs(1) PFCs(1) SF6 NOx CO NMVOC SO2CATEGORIES emissions P A P A P A

Total National Emissions and Removals 38 107,41 -6 319,96 207,76 3,30 NO/NE NO/NE NO/NE NO/NE NO/NE NO/NE 90,62 176,19 34,05 274,911. Energy 37 493,66 61,31 0,15 90,47 174,40 28,17 270,11

A. Fuel Combustion Reference Approach(2) 37 493,66Sectoral Approach(2) 37 493,66 4,13 0,15 90,47 174,39 27,47 270,01

B. Fugitive Emissions from Fuels NO 57,18 0,00 0,01 0,01 0,69 0,102. Industrial Processes 613,74 NO NO NE NE NE NE NE NE 0,10 0,38 5,89 4,803. Solvent and Other Product Use NO NO NO NO NO NO4. Agriculture (3) NO NO 0,00 69,73 3,15 NO/NE NO/NE NO/NE NO5. Land-Use Change and Forestry (4) (4) -6 319,96 0,16 NE NO NO NO NO6. Waste NO 76,57 NE NO/NE NO/NE NO/NE NO/NE7. Other NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NOMemo Items:International Bunkers NE NE NE NE NE NE NE

Aviation NE NE NE NE NE NE NEMarine NE NE NE NE NE NE NE

Multilateral Operations NE NE NE NE NE NE NE

CO2 Emissions from Biomass 846,74

P = Potential emissions based on Tier 1 approach of the IPCC Guidelines. A = Actual emissions based on Tier 2 approach of the IPCC Guidelines.

(1) The emissions of HFCs and PFCs are to be expressed as CO2 equivalent emissions. Data on disaggregated emissions of HFCs and PFCs are to be provided in Table 2(II) of this common reporting format.(2) For verification purposes, countries are asked to report the results of their calculations using the Reference approach and to explain any differences with the Sectoral approach in document box of Table1.A(c). Where possible, the calculations using the Sectoral approach should be used for estimating national totals. Do not include the results of both the Reference approach and the Sectoral approach in national totals.(3) See footnote 4 to Summary 1.A.(4) Please do not provide an estimate of both CO2 emissions and CO2 removals. “Net” emissions (emissions - removals) of CO2 should be estimated and a single number placed in either the CO2 emissions or CO2 removals column, as appropriate. Please note that for the purposes of reporting, the signs for uptake are always (-) and for emissions (+).

(Gg)CO2 equivalent (Gg)

CO2 removals

(Gg)

ANNEX

SUMMARY 2 SUMMARY REPORT FOR CO2 EQUIVALENT EMISSIONS Estonia

(Sheet 1 of 1) 1990

GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND SINK CO2 (1) CH4 N2O HFCs PFCs SF6 Total

CATEGORIES

Total (Net Emissions) (1) 31 787,45 4 363,04 1 023,88 NO/NE NO/NE NO/NE 37 174,371. Energy 37 493,66 1 287,52 47,34 38 828,52

A. Fuel Combustion (Sectoral Approach) 37 493,66 86,66 47,34 37 627,661. Energy Industries 29 753,46 7,87 19,99 29 781,312. Manufacturing Industries and Construction 2 654,88 1,49 2,91 2 659,273. Transport 2 693,06 6,91 7,54 2 707,514. Other Sectors 2 392,27 70,39 16,91 2 479,575. Other NO NO NO NO

B. Fugitive Emissions from Fuels NO 1 200,86 NO 1 200,861. Solid Fuels NO 407,69 NO 407,692. Oil and Natural Gas NO 793,17 NO 793,17

2. Industrial Processes 613,74 NO NO NE NE NE 613,74A. Mineral Products 613,74 NO NO 613,74B. Chemical Industry NO NO NO NE NE NE NOC. Metal Production NO NO NO NE NE NOD. Other Production NE NOE. Production of Halocarbons and SF6 NE NE NE NEF. Consumption of Halocarbons and SF6 NE NE NE NEG. Other NO NO NO NO NO NO NO

3. Solvent and Other Product Use NO NO NO4. Agriculture NO 1 464,25 976,20 2 440,45

A. Enteric Fermentation 1 092,36 1 092,36B. Manure Management 371,89 24,42 396,31C. Rice Cultivation NO NOD. Agricultural Soils(2) NO 951,78 951,78E. Prescribed Burning of Savannas NO NO NOF. Field Burning of Agricultural Residues NO NO NOG. Other NO NO NO

5. Land-Use Change and Forestry(1) -6 319,96 NE NE -6 316,236. Waste NO/NE 1 607,88 NO/NE 1 607,88

A. Solid Waste Disposal on Land NO 1 416,04 1 416,04B. Wastewater Handling 191,84 NE 191,84C. Waste Incineration NE NE NE NOD. Other NO NO NO NO

7. Other (please specify) NO NO NO NO NO NO NO

Memo Items:International Bunkers NE NE NE NEAviation NE NE NE NEMarine NE NE NE NEMultilateral Operations NE NE NE NE

CO2 Emissions from Biomass 846,74 846,74

(1) For CO2 emissions from Land-Use Change and Forestry the net emissions are to be reported. Please note that for the purposes of reporting, the signs for uptake are always (-) and for emissions (+). (2) See footnote 4 to Summary 1.A of this common reporting format.

GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND SINK CO2 CO2 Net CO2 CH4 N2O TotalCATEGORIES emissions removals emissions /

removalsemissions

Land-Use Change and ForestryA. Changes in Forest and Other Woody Biomass Stocks 2 745,60 -10 208,40 -7 462,80 -7 462,80B. Forest and Grassland Conversion 75,38 75,38 3,39 0,34 79,11C. Abandonment of Managed Lands NE -1 985,20 -1 985,20 -1 985,20D. CO2 Emissions and Removals from Soil 3 052,67 0,00 3 052,67 3 052,67E. Other NO NO NO NO NO NO

Total CO2 Equivalent Emissions from Land-Use Change and Forestry 5 873,65 -12 193,61 -6 319,96 3,39 0,34 -6 316,23

Total CO2 Equivalent Emissions without Land-Use Change and Forestry (a) 43 490,60Total CO2 Equivalent Emissions with Land-Use Change and Forestry (a) 37 174,37

(a) The information in these rows is requested to facilitate comparison of data, since Parties differ in the way they report emissions and removals fromLand-Use Change and Forestry.

CO2 equivalent (Gg )

CO2 equivalent (Gg )

ANNEXSUMMARY 1.B SHORT SUMMARY REPORT FOR NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORIES (IPCC TABLE 7B) Estonia

(Sheet 1 of 1) 2000

GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND SINK CO2 CH4 N2O HFCs(1) PFCs(1) SF6 NOx CO NMVOC SO2CATEGORIES emissions P A P A P A

Total National Emissions and Removals 16 848,88 -8 365,14 114,43 1,32 NO/NE NO/NE NO/NE NO/NE NO/NE NO/NE 37,28 129,86 21,74 124,211. Energy 16 494,54 36,85 0,13 37,20 129,55 19,07 123,15

A. Fuel Combustion Reference Approach(2) 16 494,54Sectoral Approach(2) 16 494,54 5,23 0,13 37,18 129,53 17,54 122,93

B. Fugitive Emissions from Fuels NO 31,62 0,00 0,01 0,02 1,53 0,222. Industrial Processes 354,33 NO NO NE NE NE NE NE NE 0,08 0,31 2,68 1,063. Solvent and Other Product Use NO NO NO NO NO NO4. Agriculture (3) NO NO 20,64 1,20 NO/NE NO/NE NO/NE NO5. Land-Use Change and Forestry (4) (4) -8 365,14 0,00 NE NO NO NO NO6. Waste NO 56,93 NE NO/NE NO/NE NO/NE NO/NE7. Other MO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NOMemo Items:International Bunkers 328,62 NE NE 6,59 4,39 0,88 2,16

Aviation NE NE NE 6,59 4,39 0,88 0,00Marine 328,62 NE NE NE NE NE 2,16

Multilateral Operations NE NE NE NE NE NE NE

CO2 Emissions from Biomass 2 269,04

P = Potential emissions based on Tier 1 approach of the IPCC Guidelines. A = Actual emissions based on Tier 2 approach of the IPCC Guidelines.

(1) The emissions of HFCs and PFCs are to be expressed as CO2 equivalent emissions. Data on disaggregated emissions of HFCs and PFCs are to be provided in Table 2(II) of this common reporting format.(2) For verification purposes, countries are asked to report the results of their calculations using the Reference approach and to explain any differences with the Sectoral approach in document box of Table1.A(c). Where possible, the calculations using the Sectoral approach should be used for estimating national totals. Do not include the results of both the Reference approach and the Sectoral approach in national totals.(3) See footnote 4 to Summary 1.A.(4) Please do not provide an estimate of both CO2 emissions and CO2 removals. “Net” emissions (emissions - removals) of CO2 should be estimated and a single number placed in either the CO2 emissions or CO2 removals column, as appropriate. Please note that for the purposes of reporting, the signs for uptake are always (-) and for emissions (+).

(Gg)CO2 equivalent (Gg)

CO2 removals

(Gg)

ANNEXSUMMARY 2 SUMMARY REPORT FOR CO2 EQUIVALENT EMISSIONS Estonia

(Sheet 1 of 1) 2000

GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND SINK CO2 (1) CH4 N2O HFCs PFCs SF6 Total

CATEGORIES

Total (Net Emissions) (1) 8 483,73 2 402,93 410,48 NO/NE NO/NE NO/NE 11 297,141. Energy 16 494,54 773,92 39,89 17 308,36

A. Fuel Combustion (Sectoral Approach) 16 494,54 109,80 39,89 16 644,241. Energy Industries 13 945,36 7,35 15,29 13 968,002. Manufacturing Industries and Construction 482,94 0,49 0,91 484,343. Transport 1 030,29 2,65 3,03 1 035,974. Other Sectors 1 035,96 99,32 20,66 1 155,935. Other NO NO NO NO

B. Fugitive Emissions from Fuels NO 664,11 NO 664,111. Solid Fuels NO 236,21 NO 236,212. Oil and Natural Gas NO 427,91 NO 427,91

2. Industrial Processes 354,33 NO NO NE NE NE 354,33A. Mineral Products 354,33 NO NO 354,33B. Chemical Industry NO NO NO NE NE NE NOC. Metal Production NO NO NO NE NE NOD. Other Production NE NOE. Production of Halocarbons and SF6 NE NE NE NEF. Consumption of Halocarbons and SF6 NE NE NE NEG. Other NO NO NO NO NO NO NO

3. Solvent and Other Product Use NO NO NO4. Agriculture NO 433,42 370,59 804,01

A. Enteric Fermentation 377,34 377,34B. Manure Management 56,08 10,32 66,40C. Rice Cultivation NO NOD. Agricultural Soils(2) NO 360,26 360,26E. Prescribed Burning of Savannas NO NO NOF. Field Burning of Agricultural Residues NO NO NOG. Other NO NO NO

5. Land-Use Change and Forestry(1) -8 365,14 NE NE -8 365,146. Waste NO/NE 1 195,60 NO/NE 1 195,60

A. Solid Waste Disposal on Land NO 976,91 976,91B. Wastewater Handling 218,69 NE 218,69C. Waste Incineration NE NE NE NOD. Other NO NO NO NO

7. Other (please specify) NO NO NO NO NO NO NO0,00

Memo Items:International Bunkers 328,62 NE NE 328,62Aviation NE NE NE NEMarine 328,62 NE NE 328,62Multilateral Operations NE NE NE NE

CO2 Emissions from Biomass 2 269,04 2 269,04

(1) For CO2 emissions from Land-Use Change and Forestry the net emissions are to be reported. Please note that for the purposes of reporting, the signs for uptake are always (-) and for emissions (+). (2) See footnote 4 to Summary 1.A of this common reporting format.

GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND SINK CO2 CO2 Net CO2 CH4 N2O TotalCATEGORIES emissions removals emissions /

removalsemissions

Land-Use Change and ForestryA. Changes in Forest and Other Woody Biomass Stocks 5 524,66 -11 923,69 -6 399,03 -6 399,03B. Forest and Grassland Conversion NE NE NE NE NEC. Abandonment of Managed Lands NE -2 456,12 -2 456,12 -2 456,12D. CO2 Emissions and Removals from Soil 462,99 NE 462,99 462,99E. Other NO NO NO NO NO NO

Total CO2 Equivalent Emissions from Land-Use Change and Forestry 6 014,67 -14 379,81 -8 365,14 NE NE -8 365,14

Total CO2 Equivalent Emissions without Land-Use Change and Forestry (a) 19 662,29Total CO2 Equivalent Emissions with Land-Use Change and Forestry (a) 11 297,14

(a) The information in these rows is requested to facilitate comparison of data, since Parties differ in the way they report emissions and removals fromLand-Use Change and Forestry.

CO2 equivalent (Gg )

CO2 equivalent (Gg )

ANNEXSUMMARY 1.B SHORT SUMMARY REPORT FOR NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORIES (IPCC TABLE 7B) Estonia

(Sheet 1 of 1) 2001

GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND SINK CO2 CH4 N2O HFCs(1) PFCs(1) SF6 NOx CO NMVOC SO2CATEGORIES emissions P A P A P A

Total National Emissions and Removals 17 083,44 -9 417,43 93,77 1,17 NO/NE NO/NE NO/NE NO/NE NO/NE NO/NE 43,16 207,62 36,69 1,291. Energy 16 727,87 38,14 0,13 43,08 207,33 33,56 0,24

A. Fuel Combustion Reference Approach(2) 16 033,44Sectoral Approach(2) 16 727,87 5,22 0,13 43,06 207,31 31,92 0,00

B. Fugitive Emissions from Fuels NO 32,92 0,00 0,02 0,02 1,64 0,242. Industrial Processes 355,58 NO NO NE NE NE NE NE NE 0,08 0,29 3,13 1,053. Solvent and Other Product Use NO NO NO NO NO NO4. Agriculture (3) NO NO 21,28 1,04 NO/NE NO/NE NO/NE NO5. Land-Use Change and Forestry (4) (4) -9 417,43 0,00 NE NO NO NO NO6. Waste NO 34,35 NE NO/NE NO/NE NO/NE NO/NE7. Other NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NOMemo Items:International Bunkers 312,86 NE NE 6,28 4,19 0,84 2 157,81

Aviation NE NE NE 6,28 4,19 0,84 NEMarine 312,86 NE NE NE NE NE 2 157,81

Multilateral Operations NE NE NE NE NE NE NE

CO2 Emissions from Biomass 2 341,99

P = Potential emissions based on Tier 1 approach of the IPCC Guidelines. A = Actual emissions based on Tier 2 approach of the IPCC Guidelines.

(1) The emissions of HFCs and PFCs are to be expressed as CO2 equivalent emissions. Data on disaggregated emissions of HFCs and PFCs are to be provided in Table 2(II) of this common reporting format.(2) For verification purposes, countries are asked to report the results of their calculations using the Reference approach and to explain any differences with the Sectoral approach in document box of Table1.A(c). Where possible, the calculations using the Sectoral approach should be used for estimating national totals. Do not include the results of both the Reference approach and the Sectoral approach in national totals.(3) See footnote 4 to Summary 1.A.(4) Please do not provide an estimate of both CO2 emissions and CO2 removals. “Net” emissions (emissions - removals) of CO2 should be estimated and a single number placed in either the CO2 emissions or CO2 removals column, as appropriate. Please note that for the purposes of reporting, the signs for uptake are always (-) and for emissions (+).

(Gg)CO2 equivalent (Gg)

CO2 removals

(Gg)

ANNEXSUMMARY 2 SUMMARY REPORT FOR CO2 EQUIVALENT EMISSIONS Estonia

(Sheet 1 of 1) 2001

GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND SINK CO2 (1) CH4 N2O HFCs PFCs SF6 Total

CATEGORIES

Total (Net Emissions) (1) 7 666,01 1 969,26 363,62 NO/NE NO/NE NO/NE 9 998,891. Energy 16 727,87 801,00 41,58 17 570,45

A. Fuel Combustion (Sectoral Approach) 16 727,87 109,72 41,58 16 879,161. Energy Industries 13 912,22 8,21 16,75 13 937,172. Manufacturing Industries and Construction 588,17 0,74 1,38 590,293. Transport 1 921,08 6,93 5,29 1 933,304. Other Sectors 306,40 93,85 18,16 418,415. Other NO NO NO NO

B. Fugitive Emissions from Fuels NO 691,28 NO 691,281. Solid Fuels NO 231,47 NO 231,472. Oil and Natural Gas NO 459,81 NO 459,81

2. Industrial Processes 355,58 NO NO NE NE NE 355,58A. Mineral Products 355,58 NO NO 355,58B. Chemical Industry NO NO NO NE NE NE NOC. Metal Production NO NO NO NE NE NOD. Other Production NE NOE. Production of Halocarbons and SF6 NE NE NE NEF. Consumption of Halocarbons and SF6 NE NE NE NEG. Other NO NO NO NO NO NO NO

3. Solvent and Other Product Use NO NO NO4. Agriculture NO 446,90 322,04 768,94

A. Enteric Fermentation 386,59 386,59B. Manure Management 60,31 10,58 70,89C. Rice Cultivation NO NOD. Agricultural Soils(2) NO 311,46 311,46E. Prescribed Burning of Savannas NO NO NOF. Field Burning of Agricultural Residues NO NO NOG. Other NO NO NO

5. Land-Use Change and Forestry(1) -9 417,43 NE NE -9 417,436. Waste NO/NE 721,36 NO/NE 721,36

A. Solid Waste Disposal on Land NO 503,52 503,52B. Wastewater Handling 217,84 NE 217,84C. Waste Incineration NE NE NE NOD. Other NO NO NO NO

7. Other (please specify) NO NO NO NO NO NO NO0,00

Memo Items:International Bunkers 312,86 NE NE 312,86Aviation NE NE NE NEMarine 312,86 NE NE 312,86Multilateral Operations NE NE NE NE

CO2 Emissions from Biomass 2 341,99 2 341,99

(1) For CO2 emissions from Land-Use Change and Forestry the net emissions are to be reported. Please note that for the purposes of reporting, the signs for uptake are always (-) and for emissions (+). (2) See footnote 4 to Summary 1.A of this common reporting format.

GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND SINK CO2 CO2 Net CO2 CH4 N2O TotalCATEGORIES emissions removals emissions /

removalsemissions

Land-Use Change and ForestryA. Changes in Forest and Other Woody Biomass Stocks 10 121,98 -15 742,65 -5 620,67 -5 620,67B. Forest and Grassland Conversion NE NE NE NE NEC. Abandonment of Managed Lands NE -2 829,75 -2 829,75 -2 829,75D. CO2 Emissions and Removals from Soil -967,01 NE -967,01 -967,01E. Other NO NO NO NO NO NO

Total CO2 Equivalent Emissions from Land-Use Change and Forestry 9 154,97 -18 572,40 -9 417,43 NE NE -9 417,43

Total CO2 Equivalent Emissions without Land-Use Change and Forestry (a) 19 416,32Total CO2 Equivalent Emissions with Land-Use Change and Forestry (a) 9 998,89

(a) The information in these rows is requested to facilitate comparison of data, since Parties differ in the way they report emissions and removals fromLand-Use Change and Forestry.

CO2 equivalent (Gg )

CO2 equivalent (Gg )

ANNEXSUMMARY 1.B SHORT SUMMARY REPORT FOR NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORIES (IPCC TABLE 7B) Estonia

(Sheet 1 of 1) 2002

GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND SINK CO2 CH4 N2O HFCs(1) PFCs(1) SF6 NOx CO NMVOC SO2CATEGORIES emissions P A P A P A

Total National Emissions and Removals 17 311,86 -8 563,79 90,38 1,01 NO/NE NO/NE NO/NE NO/NE NO/NE NO/NE 46,61 211,07 37,87 97,851. Energy 16 971,38 34,28 0,14 46,51 210,71 34,29 96,59

A. Fuel Combustion Reference Approach(2) 15 577,27Sectoral Approach(2) 16 971,38 5,27 0,14 46,50 210,68 32,53 96,34

B. Fugitive Emissions from Fuels MO 29,01 0,00 0,02 0,02 1,77 0,262. Industrial Processes 340,48 NO NO NE NE NE NE NE NE 0,10 0,37 3,58 1,263. Solvent and Other Product Use NO NO NO NO NO NO4. Agriculture (3) NO NO 20,50 0,88 NO/NE NO/NE NO/NE NO5. Land-Use Change and Forestry (4) (4) -8 563,79 0,00 NE NO NO NO NO6. Waste NO 35,60 NE NO/NE NO/NE NO/NE NO/NE7. Other NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NOMemo Items:International Bunkers 368,24 NE NE 7,30 4,86 0,97 2 382,28

Aviation NE NE NE 7,30 4,86 0,97 NEMarine 368,24 NE NE NE NE NE 2 382,28

Multilateral Operations NE NE NE NE NE NE NE

CO2 Emissions from Biomass 2 339,04

P = Potential emissions based on Tier 1 approach of the IPCC Guidelines. A = Actual emissions based on Tier 2 approach of the IPCC Guidelines.

(1) The emissions of HFCs and PFCs are to be expressed as CO2 equivalent emissions. Data on disaggregated emissions of HFCs and PFCs are to be provided in Table 2(II) of this common reporting format.(2) For verification purposes, countries are asked to report the results of their calculations using the Reference approach and to explain any differences with the Sectoral approach in document box of Table1.A(c). Where possible, the calculations using the Sectoral approach should be used for estimating national totals. Do not include the results of both the Reference approach and the Sectoral approach in national totals.(3) See footnote 4 to Summary 1.A.(4) Please do not provide an estimate of both CO2 emissions and CO2 removals. “Net” emissions (emissions - removals) of CO2 should be estimated and a single number placed in either the CO2 emissions or CO2 removals column, as appropriate. Please note that for the purposes of reporting, the signs for uptake are always (-) and for emissions (+).

(Gg)CO2 equivalent (Gg)

CO2 removals

(Gg)

ANNEXSUMMARY 2 SUMMARY REPORT FOR CO2 EQUIVALENT EMISSIONS Estonia

(Sheet 1 of 1) 2002

GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND SINK CO2 (1) CH4 N2O HFCs PFCs SF6 Total

CATEGORIES

Total (Net Emissions) (1) 8 748,07 1 897,92 313,97 NO/NE NO/NE NO/NE 10 959,961. Energy 16 971,38 719,84 42,49 17 733,70

A. Fuel Combustion (Sectoral Approach) 16 971,38 110,70 42,49 17 124,571. Energy Industries 13 911,44 8,44 17,09 13 936,972. Manufacturing Industries and Construction 421,68 0,44 0,87 422,993. Transport 2 174,71 7,28 6,03 2 188,024. Other Sectors 463,54 94,55 18,50 576,595. Other NO NO NO NO

B. Fugitive Emissions from Fuels NO 609,14 NO 609,141. Solid Fuels NO 223,26 NO 223,262. Oil and Natural Gas NO 385,87 NO 385,87

2. Industrial Processes 340,48 NO NO NE NE NE 340,48A. Mineral Products 340,48 NO NO 340,48B. Chemical Industry NO NO NO NE NE NE NOC. Metal Production NO NO NO NE NE NOD. Other Production NE NOE. Production of Halocarbons and SF6 NE NE NE NEF. Consumption of Halocarbons and SF6 NE NE NE NEG. Other NO NO NO NO NO NO NO

3. Solvent and Other Product Use NO NO NO4. Agriculture NO 430,51 271,48 701,99

A. Enteric Fermentation 371,99 371,99B. Manure Management 58,53 10,12 68,65C. Rice Cultivation NO NOD. Agricultural Soils(2) NO 261,36 261,36E. Prescribed Burning of Savannas NO NO NOF. Field Burning of Agricultural Residues NO NO NOG. Other NO NO NO

5. Land-Use Change and Forestry(1) -8 563,79 NE NE -8 563,796. Waste NO/NE 747,57 NO/NE 747,57

A. Solid Waste Disposal on Land NO 495,55 495,55B. Wastewater Handling 252,03 NE 252,03C. Waste Incineration NE NE NE NOD. Other NO NO NO NO

7. Other (please specify) NO NO NO NO NO NO NO0,00

Memo Items:International Bunkers 368,24 NE NE 368,24Aviation NE NE NE NEMarine 368,24 NE NE 368,24Multilateral Operations NE NE NE NE

CO2 Emissions from Biomass 2 339,04 2 339,04

(1) For CO2 emissions from Land-Use Change and Forestry the net emissions are to be reported. Please note that for the purposes of reporting, the signs for uptake are always (-) and for emissions (+). (2) See footnote 4 to Summary 1.A of this common reporting format.

GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND SINK CO2 CO2 Net CO2 CH4 N2O TotalCATEGORIES emissions removals emissions /

removalsemissions

Land-Use Change and ForestryA. Changes in Forest and Other Woody Biomass Stocks 10 601,08 -15 886,20 -5 285,12 -5 285,12B. Forest and Grassland Conversion NE NE NE NE NEC. Abandonment of Managed Lands NE -2 311,65 -2 311,65 -2 311,65D. CO2 Emissions and Removals from Soil -967,01 NE -967,01 -967,01E. Other NO NO NO NO NO NO

Total CO2 Equivalent Emissions from Land-Use Change and Forestry 9 634,06 -18 197,85 -8 563,79 NE NE -8 563,79

Total CO2 Equivalent Emissions without Land-Use Change and Forestry (a) 19 523,75Total CO2 Equivalent Emissions with Land-Use Change and Forestry (a) 10 959,96

(a) The information in these rows is requested to facilitate comparison of data, since Parties differ in the way they report emissions and removals fromLand-Use Change and Forestry.

CO2 equivalent (Gg )

CO2 equivalent (Gg )

ANNEXSUMMARY 1.B SHORT SUMMARY REPORT FOR NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORIES (IPCC TABLE 7B) Estonia

(Sheet 1 of 1) 2003

GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND SINK CO2 CH4 N2O HFCs(1) PFCs(1) SF6 NOx CO NMVOC SO2CATEGORIES emissions P A P A P A

Total National Emissions and Removals 19 106,44 -8 717,19 93,71 1,01 NO/NE NO/NE NO/NE NO/NE NO/NE NO/NE 49,32 214,20 38,21 150,721. Energy 18 830,01 36,69 0,14 49,22 213,83 34,27 149,35

A. Fuel Combustion Reference Approach(2) 17 806,76Sectoral Approach(2) 18 830,01 5,50 0,14 49,20 213,80 32,31 149,07

B. Fugitive Emissions from Fuels NO 31,19 NO 0,02 0,03 1,96 0,282. Industrial Processes 276,43 NO NO NE NE NE NE NE NE 0,10 0,38 3,95 1,373. Solvent and Other Product Use NO NO NO NO NO NO4. Agriculture (3) NO NO 22,11 0,86 NO/NE NO/NE NO/NE NO5. Land-Use Change and Forestry (4) (4) -8 717,19 NE NE NO NO NO NO6. Waste NO 34,90 NE NO/NE NO/NE NO/NE NO/NE7. Other NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NOMemo Items:International Bunkers 354,69 NE NE 7,07 4,71 0,94 2 250,97

Aviation NE NE NE 7,07 4,71 0,94 NEMarine 354,69 NE NE NE NE NE 2 250,97

Multilateral Operations NE NE NE NE NE NE NE

CO2 Emissions from Biomass 2 587,51

P = Potential emissions based on Tier 1 approach of the IPCC Guidelines. A = Actual emissions based on Tier 2 approach of the IPCC Guidelines.

(1) The emissions of HFCs and PFCs are to be expressed as CO2 equivalent emissions. Data on disaggregated emissions of HFCs and PFCs are to be provided in Table 2(II) of this common reporting format.(2) For verification purposes, countries are asked to report the results of their calculations using the Reference approach and to explain any differences with the Sectoral approach in document box of Table1.A(c). Where possible, the calculations using the Sectoral approach should be used for estimating national totals. Do not include the results of both the Reference approach and the Sectoral approach in national totals.(3) See footnote 4 to Summary 1.A.(4) Please do not provide an estimate of both CO2 emissions and CO2 removals. “Net” emissions (emissions - removals) of CO2 should be estimated and a single number placed in either the CO2 emissions or CO2 removals column, as appropriate. Please note that for the purposes of reporting, the signs for uptake are always (-) and for emissions (+).

(Gg)CO2 equivalent (Gg)

CO2 removals

(Gg)

ANNEXSUMMARY 2 SUMMARY REPORT FOR CO2 EQUIVALENT EMISSIONS Estonia

(Sheet 1 of 1) 2003

GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND SINK CO2 (1) CH4 N2O HFCs PFCs SF6 Total

CATEGORIES

Total (Net Emissions) (1) 10 389,26 1 967,85 312,76 NO/NE NO/NE NO/NE 12 669,861. Energy 18 830,01 770,53 44,77 19 645,31

A. Fuel Combustion (Sectoral Approach) 18 830,01 115,48 44,77 18 990,261. Energy Industries 15 854,75 8,18 16,53 15 879,462. Manufacturing Industries and Construction 419,92 1,50 2,86 424,293. Transport 2 146,56 7,05 5,93 2 159,554. Other Sectors 408,78 98,74 19,44 526,975. Other NO NO NO NO

B. Fugitive Emissions from Fuels NO 655,05 NO 655,051. Solid Fuels NO 229,37 NO 229,372. Oil and Natural Gas NO 425,68 NO 425,68

2. Industrial Processes 276,43 NO NO NE NE NE 276,43A. Mineral Products 276,43 NO NO 276,43B. Chemical Industry NO NO NO NE NE NE NOC. Metal Production NO NO NO NE NE NOD. Other Production NE NOE. Production of Halocarbons and SF6 NE NE NE NEF. Consumption of Halocarbons and SF6 NE NE NE NEG. Other NO NO NO NO NO NO NO

3. Solvent and Other Product Use NO NO NO4. Agriculture NO 464,34 267,98 732,32

A. Enteric Fermentation 405,39 405,39B. Manure Management 58,95 10,22 69,17C. Rice Cultivation NO NOD. Agricultural Soils(2) NO 257,76 257,76E. Prescribed Burning of Savannas NO NO NOF. Field Burning of Agricultural Residues NO NO NOG. Other NO NO NO

5. Land-Use Change and Forestry(1) -8 717,19 NE NE -8 717,196. Waste NO/NE 732,98 NO/NE 732,98

A. Solid Waste Disposal on Land NO 464,99 464,99B. Wastewater Handling 268,00 NE 268,00C. Waste Incineration NE NE NE NOD. Other NO NO NO NO

7. Other (please specify) NO NO NO NO NO NO NO

Memo Items:International Bunkers 354,69 NE NE 354,69Aviation NE NE NE NEMarine 354,69 NE NE 354,69Multilateral Operations NE NE NE NE

CO2 Emissions from Biomass 2 587,51 2 587,51

(1) For CO2 emissions from Land-Use Change and Forestry the net emissions are to be reported. Please note that for the purposes of reporting, the signs for uptake are always (-) and for emissions (+). (2) See footnote 4 to Summary 1.A of this common reporting format.

GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND SINK CO2 CO2 Net CO2 CH4 N2O TotalCATEGORIES emissions removals emissions /

removalsemissions

Land-Use Change and ForestryA. Changes in Forest and Other Woody Biomass Stocks 10 954,23 -16 031,40 -5 077,17 -5 077,17B. Forest and Grassland Conversion NE NE NE NE NEC. Abandonment of Managed Lands NE -2 673,00 -2 673,00 -2 673,00D. CO2 Emissions and Removals from Soil -967,01 NE -967,01 -967,01E. Other NO NO NO NO NO NO

Total CO2 Equivalent Emissions from Land-Use Change and Forestry 9 987,21 -18 704,40 -8 717,19 NE NE -8 717,19

Total CO2 Equivalent Emissions without Land-Use Change and Forestry (a) 21 387,05Total CO2 Equivalent Emissions with Land-Use Change and Forestry (a) 12 669,86

(a) The information in these rows is requested to facilitate comparison of data, since Parties differ in the way they report emissions and removals fromLand-Use Change and Forestry.

CO2 equivalent (Gg )

CO2 equivalent (Gg )

ANNEXTABLE 10 EMISSION TRENDS (SUMMARY) Estonia

(Sheet 5 of 5)

Base year(1) 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 CO2 equivalent (Gg)

Net CO2 emissions/removals 31 787,45 31 787,45 28 752,03 18 325,28 10 857,88 13 773,17 11 533,02 10 656,55 11 117,78 9 795,40 8 663,72 8 483,73 7 685,49 8 748,07 10 389,26CO2 emissions (without LUCF) (6) 38 107,41 38 107,41 35 914,91 26 141,80 20 553,41 21 378,07 19 314,97 20 263,76 20 224,61 18 317,70 16 770,89 16 848,88 17 102,92 17 311,86 19 106,44CH4 4 363,04 4 363,04 3 667,70 2 975,61 2 409,11 2 631,30 2 561,26 2 694,48 2 866,12 2 663,54 2 450,77 2 402,93 1 969,26 1 897,92 1 967,85N2O 1 023,54 1 023,54 1 001,99 816,80 527,00 472,85 410,42 386,64 423,22 430,34 358,82 414,06 363,62 313,97 312,76HFCs NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NEPFCs NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NESF6 NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NETotal (with net CO2 emissions/removals) 37 174,03 37 174,03 33 421,71 22 117,70 13 793,98 16 877,32 14 504,70 13 737,67 14 407,12 12 889,28 11 473,31 11 300,72 10 018,37 10 959,96 12 669,86Total (without CO2 from LUCF) (6) 43 493,99 43 493,99 40 584,60 29 934,22 23 489,51 24 482,22 22 286,66 23 344,89 23 513,95 21 411,59 19 580,48 19 665,87 19 435,80 19 523,75 21 387,05

GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND Base year(1) 1 990,00 1 991,00 1 992,00 1 993,00 1 994,00 1 995,00 1 996,00 1 997,00 1 998,00 1 999,00 2 000,00 2 001,00 2 002,00 2 003,00SINK CATEGORIES CO2 equivalent (Gg)1. Energy 38 828,52 38 828,52 36 605,91 26 734,52 20 957,69 21 873,98 19 891,46 20 947,80 20 873,12 18 716,62 17 154,85 17 308,36 17 589,92 17 733,70 19 645,312. Industrial Processes 613,74 613,74 614,67 313,46 193,06 214,87 221,45 207,01 226,02 367,63 346,79 354,33 355,58 340,48 276,433. Solvent and Other Product Use NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE4. Agriculture 2 440,45 2 440,45 2 327,58 2 049,84 1 480,46 1 358,08 1 116,72 909,05 920,58 911,48 774,67 807,59 768,94 701,99 732,325. Land-Use Change and Forestry (7) -6 316,57 -6 316,57 -7 159,90 -7 813,94 -9 693,35 -7 603,09 -7 781,79 -9 607,04 -9 106,71 -8 522,19 -8 107,17 -8 365,14 -9 417,43 -8 563,79 -8 717,196. Waste 1 607,88 1 607,88 1 033,45 833,81 856,12 1 033,48 1 056,87 1 280,86 1 494,12 1 415,74 1 304,18 1 195,60 721,36 747,57 732,987. Other NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO

(6) The information in these rows is requested to facilitate comparison of data, since Parties differ in the way they report CO2 emissions and removals from Land-Use Change and Forestry. (7) Net emissions.

GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS