Estimating the Cost of New Construction Naval Ship
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Transcript of Estimating the Cost of New Construction Naval Ship
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8/11/2019 Estimating the Cost of New Construction Naval Ship
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Estimating the Cost
of New Construction
Using PERCEPTION
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Computerized Cost Estimating
Computer-based tools to quickly
formulate a cost estimate
Manage cost data from central database Maintain current catalog of actual costs
Maintain catalog of prior estimates
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Establish Libraries ofCentrally Available Cost Data
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Benefits
Fewer cost surprises
Faster bid response
Lower cost risk Greater profit potential
More competitive bids
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Basic Tool Set:
Application of learning curvesComplexity & productivity factors
Cost escalation
os r s ana ys sCost trade-off
Global edits and update features
Return cost data analysisUser documentation of cost estimate
Tracking of estimate sources and changes
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Identify Work Items
Work Items may be cataloged by Ship System WBS (SWBS)
Ship Owners WBS
Government Contract Line Item (CLIN)
Each structure can be customized by shipyard, by contract.
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Identify Work Process
Work Process may be cataloged by Stage of Construction (Rip-Out, Shop Work,
- , - , - ,
Shipyard Department (COA)
Each structure can be customized by shipyard, by contract.
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Cataloging Standard Costs
CatalogStandard Cost
Estimating
Relationships (CERs)onto Computer
Database
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What is a CER?
A Cost Estimate Relationship (CER) is a formula relating thecost of an item to the items physical or functionalcharacteristics or relating the items cost to the cost of
another item or group of items.Examples:
a) for steel block assembly, 25 man-hours/ton;
b) for pipe material, $25/meter; and
c) for shipyard support service, 10% productionhours.
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Cataloging Standard Costs ByWork Sequence
LOFT
PLAN
PREP FAB ASS'M P/OHOT
ERECTP/O
COLDBLASTPAINT
Pre-Outfitted Hull Block Construction
Equipment & OutfitSystem Modules
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Complete Equipment Packages
Cargo Zone Packages
Develop Standards of Labor &Material Cost Packages
Accommodations Outfit PackagesSafety Equipment Packages
Electronics Packages
Shipyard Services Packages
.....and more.
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Cataloging Standard Costs BySequence
Rip-Out Replace
Engineer Fabricate
Install
Test
Install
TestEngineering
SpecificationsProductionDrawings
ShopFabrication
ComponentInstallation
SystemTests
Rip-Out Repair Re-Install Test
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Possible Levels ofProduct-Based CERs
Cargo Hold
Block Erection
Outfit Fittings
Mhrs/BBL
Mhrs/Ton
Mhrs/EA
Outfit Pipe
Block Paint
Block Assembly
Steel Fab
Steel Prep
Mhrs/IN-FT
Mhrs/SQFT
Mhrs/Ton
Mhrs/Ton
Mhrs/Ton
Product&
Process
Sequenc
e
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Outfit CERs byStage of Construction
Pipe Work
450,000
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000350,000
400,000
1 2 3 4 5 6
Ship Number
LaborHours Total
On-Ship
On-Block
Pipe Fab
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Cataloging Standard Costs ByShip System (SWBS)
Structural Work Electrical
Machinery
Piping
HVAC
Paint
Outfit
Shipyard Services
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Bow Construction Zone Cargo Construction Zone
Cataloging Standard Costs ByShip Zone (PWBS)
Machinery Construction Zone
Deckhouse Construction Zone
Stern Construction Zone
Ship-Wide Construction Zone
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Variations of CERs:
Single V-butt weld size 3/16" - 5/16" (2 pass) 0.250 MH/FT
Line Item CER:
Welding Repairs:Cracks Labor CERLabor UoMMaterial CER
Drill Out 0.500 MH/FT -$
Welding Repairs: 0.250 MH/FT 1.4680$
Gen Labor: 0.250 MH/FT -$
Total: 1.000 MH/FT 1.4680$
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Variations of CERs:
CERs Based Upon Ship Design &Performance Characteristics:
Labor Hours Material Cost UoM
CER CER CER
Cargo Transfer Pumps 0.0606 $22.93 GPMPaint 15.59 $425.17 CuNo
Shafting 0.1695 $20.26 kW
Dry Docking $0.27 Days-GRT
Hauling $0.50 Days-LOA
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Cost Adjustments
a us
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Automating Cost Adjustments
Work ProductivityWork Site
ork Access
Economic Cost Escalation
Learning Experience
Standard Material SavingsMaterial Waste Adjustments
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Impact of Work Productivity
Alternate Methods: Expensive staging versus mobilelift
Automation: Manual versus automated weldin
Alternate Resources: In-House versus Sub-Contract Worker Skill Level
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Impact of Work Site
Added Cost Factor
500%
600%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
In Shop On Block On Board
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Impact of Work Access:
Added Cost Factor
50%
60%
0%
10%
20%30%
OnWeatherD
eck
OilTanks
EngineR
oom
Superstru
cture
PumpR
oom
H
olds
DoubleBot
toms
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Impact of Work Access:
Over-Head Down-Hand
More Difficult = More Expensive
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Impact of Cost Escalation:
Cost Escalation Index
1.35
1.40
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
1.20
1.25
1.30
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Year
EscalationInde
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Impact of Learning:
Cost Reductions From Repeatability
120%
ost
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Number of Similar Items Worked
Perc
entofFirstItem
C
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Impact of Standard Materials:
Standard material items typically less
expens ve an non-s an ar ems.Standard material deliveries less
expensive than high-priority rush orders
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Cost Risk Analysis
$1,600
$1,800
Cost Risk
MinimumExpected
Maximum
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000$1,200
$1,400
Range of Costs
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Cost Risk Analysis
Cost Probability
100%
120%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
$0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000
Cost Range
Probability
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Hardware Options
Single User Laptop Single User Desktop
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Hardware Options
Multi-User Network
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Many Report Formats
Detail Cost Item Reports
WBS Summary Reports Major Equipment Lists
Detail Bills of Material
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Other Capabilities:
Import/Export: Spreadsheets & Databases Data Analysis Module: statistical analysis of
cost information to develop CERs
e urn os o u e: n o s pyarproduction management systems
Link to CAD systems: automated costestimating from design process
Link to CAD systems: automated down-loadingof bills of material
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Over 35 Years Serving the Shipbuilding &Repair Industry