Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas Gunnar Schwoch DLR...
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![Page 1: Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas Gunnar Schwoch DLR Institute of Flight Guidance Braunschweig, Germany ICNS 2012.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649d095503460f949db7f5/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas
Gunnar Schwoch
DLR Institute of Flight GuidanceBraunschweig, Germany
ICNS 201224th – 26th April 2012
www.DLR.de • Chart 1 • ICNS 2012 • Gunnar Schwoch • Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas • 26th April 2012
![Page 2: Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas Gunnar Schwoch DLR Institute of Flight Guidance Braunschweig, Germany ICNS 2012.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649d095503460f949db7f5/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Utopia
• More efficient procedures than holdings/trombones desired
• 4D trajectories with direct routing to increase efficiency
• High density TMAs pose a challenge to prediction and compliance
• Research starts with Utopia: - Ideal scenario - No uncertainties - Direct routing (two merge points only)
Upper bounds for efficiency gain What are the challenges?
www.DLR.de • Chart 2 • ICNS 2012 • Gunnar Schwoch • Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas • 26th April 2012
![Page 3: Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas Gunnar Schwoch DLR Institute of Flight Guidance Braunschweig, Germany ICNS 2012.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649d095503460f949db7f5/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Preliminary CondiserationsGround Side Trajectory Predictions
• Initial trajectory prediction based on aircraft model, atmosphere and weather forecast
• Example: Airbus A320 trajectory, 67 t TOM, using BADA 3.9
- Flight altitude (FL)- Ground speed- CAS- Mach * 100
www.DLR.de • Chart 3 • ICNS 2012 • Gunnar Schwoch • Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas • 26th April 2012
![Page 4: Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas Gunnar Schwoch DLR Institute of Flight Guidance Braunschweig, Germany ICNS 2012.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649d095503460f949db7f5/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Preliminary CondiserationsGround Side Trajectory Predictions
• Error in trajectory prediction requires compensation measures
• Influence on flight time with errors in specific parameters 200 NM before touchdown (Airbus A320 BADA model):
www.DLR.de • Chart 4 • ICNS 2012 • Gunnar Schwoch • Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas • 26th April 2012
Error in aircraft specific parameter
Difference in flight time
mass: +/- 5% +3.9s/-4.5s
thrust: +/- 10% +0.6s/-0.6s
drag: +/- 10% -20.3s/+24.8s
![Page 5: Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas Gunnar Schwoch DLR Institute of Flight Guidance Braunschweig, Germany ICNS 2012.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649d095503460f949db7f5/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Preliminary CondiserationsGround Side Trajectory Predictions
• Variability of the arrival time (Airbus A320 BADA model)
• „Snapshot“ of the aircraft‘s possibilities at 200 NM from touchdown
• Range approx. -105 s (high speed) to +165 s (low speed)
www.DLR.de • Chart 5 • ICNS 2012 • Gunnar Schwoch • Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas • 26th April 2012
![Page 6: Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas Gunnar Schwoch DLR Institute of Flight Guidance Braunschweig, Germany ICNS 2012.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649d095503460f949db7f5/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Scenario Design
• Based on an actual busy day of real traffic
• All scenarios contain 1377 identical flights
• Three runways (one for departures only)
• Two „families“ of scenarios are created:
- Conventional scenario family as a „lower bound“ for efficiency
measuring
- Utopia scenario family with (nearly) direct routing
www.DLR.de • Chart 6 • ICNS 2012 • Gunnar Schwoch • Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas • 26th April 2012
![Page 7: Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas Gunnar Schwoch DLR Institute of Flight Guidance Braunschweig, Germany ICNS 2012.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649d095503460f949db7f5/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Scenario DesignScenario Family Conventional
• Based on today‘s departure and approach patterns:- SIDs/STARs- Guidance along trombone (downwind-upwind legs)
• Variance in length of trombone- Shortest possible- Typical- Longest possible
• Conflict-free baseline scenario
www.DLR.de • Chart 7 • ICNS 2012 • Gunnar Schwoch • Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas • 26th April 2012
![Page 8: Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas Gunnar Schwoch DLR Institute of Flight Guidance Braunschweig, Germany ICNS 2012.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649d095503460f949db7f5/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Scenario DesignScenario Family Utopia
• Direct routing with as few waypoints as possible
• Arrivals: Great circle routes from airport of origin to one of two merge points, Continuous Descent Approach
• Assignment of merge point depending on location of airport of origin
www.DLR.de • Chart 8 • ICNS 2012 • Gunnar Schwoch • Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas • 26th April 2012
![Page 9: Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas Gunnar Schwoch DLR Institute of Flight Guidance Braunschweig, Germany ICNS 2012.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649d095503460f949db7f5/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Scenario DesignScenario Family Utopia
• Direct routing with as few waypoints as possible
• Departures: Small straight segment for take-off, great circle route to destination airport, Continuous Climb Departure
• No additional requirements
www.DLR.de • Chart 9 • ICNS 2012 • Gunnar Schwoch • Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas • 26th April 2012
departures
![Page 10: Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas Gunnar Schwoch DLR Institute of Flight Guidance Braunschweig, Germany ICNS 2012.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649d095503460f949db7f5/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Scenario DesignScenario Family Utopia
Basic Utopia:
• Runway threshold times as the only time constraint
• Flights are separated at threshold
• Fixed sequence since TOD
What kind of disturbances can be compensated?
What measures are necessary?
www.DLR.de • Chart 10 • ICNS 2012 • Gunnar Schwoch • Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas • 26th April 2012
![Page 11: Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas Gunnar Schwoch DLR Institute of Flight Guidance Braunschweig, Germany ICNS 2012.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649d095503460f949db7f5/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Scenario DesignAssessment method
Indicators are:
• Average flight timeLonger flight times indicate delay
• Average flight path lengthLonger flight paths indicate higher fuel consumption
• Average model fuel consumptionBased on BADA 3.9
• Number of trajectory planning conflicts-> Safety KPA
Simulation tool: TrafficSim (DLR)
www.DLR.de • Chart 11 • ICNS 2012 • Gunnar Schwoch • Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas • 26th April 2012
![Page 12: Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas Gunnar Schwoch DLR Institute of Flight Guidance Braunschweig, Germany ICNS 2012.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649d095503460f949db7f5/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Conflict Detection and ResolutionConflict Detection
www.DLR.de • Chart 12 • ICNS 2012 • Gunnar Schwoch • Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas • 26th April 2012
Definition of a conflict in this scope:
• Lateral separation of less than 3.0 NM
and• Vertical separation of
- Less than 1000 ft (cruise)- Less than 3000 ft (at least one A/C
climbing/descending)
• Values for experimental purposes only!
• Gained data: Conflict area (4D positions of aircraft at begin/end of conflict)
![Page 13: Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas Gunnar Schwoch DLR Institute of Flight Guidance Braunschweig, Germany ICNS 2012.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649d095503460f949db7f5/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Conflict Detection and ResolutionConflict Detection
www.DLR.de • Chart 13 • ICNS 2012 • Gunnar Schwoch • Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas • 26th April 2012
Detection by type of conflict:
• Arrival-arrival conflict/ Departure-departure conflict
- Rare in this scenario (sequence building)
- If any: Solved by sequence change or slight time modification
• Arrival-departure conflict- Majority of conflicts as a result of crossing tracks
- Different resolution strategies
![Page 14: Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas Gunnar Schwoch DLR Institute of Flight Guidance Braunschweig, Germany ICNS 2012.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649d095503460f949db7f5/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Conflict Detection and ResolutionConflict Resolution
www.DLR.de • Chart 14 • ICNS 2012 • Gunnar Schwoch • Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas • 26th April 2012
Conflict Resolution by constraining departures
• Climb procedure is interrupted by level segment below conflict area
• Lateral border: Conflict area
• Vertical border: Lowest altitude of both aircraft within conflict area
![Page 15: Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas Gunnar Schwoch DLR Institute of Flight Guidance Braunschweig, Germany ICNS 2012.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649d095503460f949db7f5/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Conflict Detection and ResolutionConflict Resolution
www.DLR.de • Chart 15 • ICNS 2012 • Gunnar Schwoch • Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas • 26th April 2012
Conflict Resolution by constraining arrivals Strategy 1 (V1)
• Arriving aircraft‘s descent profile is modified to stay above the conflict area
• Conflict area is avoided by interrupting descent and flying a level segment
• Lateral path stretching manoeuvre becomes necessary as aircraft has passed its TOD
New conflicts at merge points may be induced
![Page 16: Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas Gunnar Schwoch DLR Institute of Flight Guidance Braunschweig, Germany ICNS 2012.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649d095503460f949db7f5/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
9000
TOD_CDA TOD_MOD
32000
28000
24000
20000
16000
12000
8000
4000
730 740 750 760 770 780 790 800 810 820
ft
A1A2
Conflict Detection and ResolutionConflict Resolution
www.DLR.de • Chart 16 • ICNS 2012 • Gunnar Schwoch • Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas • 26th April 2012
Conflict Resolution by constraining arrivals Strategy 2 (V2)
• Arriving aircraft‘s descent profile is altered to stay below the conflict area
• Top of Descent has to be moved
• No lateral route change
No further conflicts are induced
![Page 17: Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas Gunnar Schwoch DLR Institute of Flight Guidance Braunschweig, Germany ICNS 2012.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649d095503460f949db7f5/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
9000
15000V2V2*
V1V1*
CDA V1 V2
32000
28000
24000
20000
16000
12000
8000
4000
730 740 750 760 770 780 790 800 810 820
ft
Conflict Detection and ResolutionConflict Resolution
www.DLR.de • Chart 17 • ICNS 2012 • Gunnar Schwoch • Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas • 26th April 2012
Conflict Resolution by constraining arrivals Top of Descent comparison
• V1 leaves TOD (nearly) intact
• CDA passes through conflict area
• V2 moves TOD by approx. 20 NM
![Page 18: Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas Gunnar Schwoch DLR Institute of Flight Guidance Braunschweig, Germany ICNS 2012.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649d095503460f949db7f5/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
9000
15000
V2 V2*
V1 V1*
CDA V1 V2
20000
16000
12000
8000
4000
800 810 820
ft
Conflict Detection and ResolutionConflict Resolution
www.DLR.de • Chart 18 • ICNS 2012 • Gunnar Schwoch • Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas • 26th April 2012
Conflict Resolution by constraining arrivals Top of Descent comparison
• V1 leaves TOD (nearly) intact
• CDA passes through conflict area
• V2 moves TOD by approx. 20 NM
![Page 19: Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas Gunnar Schwoch DLR Institute of Flight Guidance Braunschweig, Germany ICNS 2012.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649d095503460f949db7f5/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Conflict Detection and ResolutionCreating the conflict-free scenario Utopia
www.DLR.de • Chart 19 • ICNS 2012 • Gunnar Schwoch • Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas • 26th April 2012
• Example scenario Utopia with 1377 flights
• 76 conflicts detected
• Automatic conflict resolution applied
Kind of Conflict
Iteration no. and Resolution action Dep-Arr Dep-Dep Arr-Arr New conflicts
Scenario Utopia
(0) Original scenario68 8 0 n/a
(1) Departure level segment 14 7 0 5
(2) Arrival TOD modification (V2) 1 7 0 0
(3) Manual sequence change 1 0 0 0
(4) Manual conflict resolution
Scenario Utopia deconf0 0 0 0
![Page 20: Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas Gunnar Schwoch DLR Institute of Flight Guidance Braunschweig, Germany ICNS 2012.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649d095503460f949db7f5/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
ResultsUtopia vs. Conventional scenario
www.DLR.de • Chart 20 • ICNS 2012 • Gunnar Schwoch • Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas • 26th April 2012
• Results for travel times and BADA fuel usage
• Conflict resolution has a very small influence
• Most gains in last 40 NM
Per Arrival200 NM to THR 40 NM to THR
Flight time [s] BADA fuel [kg] Flight time [s] BADA fuel [kg]
Utopia 2177 1264 809 319
Utopia deconf 2179 1265 810 322
Conv. short 2536 1521 1059 520
Conv. medium 2645 1605 1167 604
Conv. long 2990 1860 1516 844
![Page 21: Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas Gunnar Schwoch DLR Institute of Flight Guidance Braunschweig, Germany ICNS 2012.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649d095503460f949db7f5/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
ResultsUtopia vs. Conventional scenario
www.DLR.de • Chart 21 • ICNS 2012 • Gunnar Schwoch • Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas • 26th April 2012
• Results for travel times and BADA fuel usage
• Conflict resolution has a very small influence
• Departure gains smaller: Controllability is on the ground
Per DepartureTHR to 40 NM THR to 200 NM
Flight time [s] BADA fuel [kg] Flight time [s] BADA fuel [kg]
Utopia 545 1271 1878 3067
Utopia deconf 546 1264 1882 3070
Conv. 549 1286 1950 3155
![Page 22: Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas Gunnar Schwoch DLR Institute of Flight Guidance Braunschweig, Germany ICNS 2012.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649d095503460f949db7f5/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Conclusions
www.DLR.de • Chart 22 • ICNS 2012 • Gunnar Schwoch • Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas • 26th April 2012
• Laboratory environment for estimation of costs/requirements established
• Conflict-free scenario Utopia possible with- Little cost- No lateral re-routing
![Page 23: Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas Gunnar Schwoch DLR Institute of Flight Guidance Braunschweig, Germany ICNS 2012.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649d095503460f949db7f5/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Conclusions
www.DLR.de • Chart 23 • ICNS 2012 • Gunnar Schwoch • Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas • 26th April 2012
• Laboratory environment for estimation of costs/requirements established
• Conflict-free scenario Utopia possible with- Little cost- No lateral re-routing
but
• Precise trajectory prediction necessary: deconfliction starts before TOD
• Separation criteria are a mix of used and expected values
• Used model environment:- No wind, standard atmosphere- 100% equipped aircraft
![Page 24: Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas Gunnar Schwoch DLR Institute of Flight Guidance Braunschweig, Germany ICNS 2012.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649d095503460f949db7f5/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Future work
www.DLR.de • Chart 24 • ICNS 2012 • Gunnar Schwoch • Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas • 26th April 2012
• Situation dependent conflict resolution
• Variation of separation minima
• Introduction of weather (forecasted and actual)
• Inclusion of
- Overflights
- Traffic to/from surrounding airports
![Page 25: Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas Gunnar Schwoch DLR Institute of Flight Guidance Braunschweig, Germany ICNS 2012.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649d095503460f949db7f5/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Thank you!
www.DLR.de • Chart 25 • ICNS 2012 • Gunnar Schwoch • Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas • 26th April 2012
Questions?