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Estimating pre-settlement vegetation in the American Midwest · 2013. 1. 12. · Estimating...
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Estimating pre-settlement vegetation in the American Midwest: Exploring climate relationships and links to proxy data for robust data assimilation Simon J. Goring John 'Jack' Williams, Madeline Ruid, Jason S. McLachlan, Stephen T. Jackson, Chris Paciorek, Andrew Thurman, Jun Zhu, Wesley Brooks, David J. Mladenoff, Charlie Cogbill, Sydne Record, Michael C. Dietze
Transcript of Estimating pre-settlement vegetation in the American Midwest · 2013. 1. 12. · Estimating...
Estimating pre-settlement vegetation in the American Midwest:
Exploring climate relationships and links to proxy data for robust data assimilation
Simon J. GoringJohn 'Jack' Williams, Madeline Ruid, Jason S. McLachlan, Stephen T. Jackson, Chris Paciorek, Andrew Thurman, Jun
Zhu, Wesley Brooks, David J. Mladenoff, Charlie Cogbill, Sydne Record, Michael C. Dietze
Collaborators & Support●PalEON Project – NSF Grant #144-PRJ45LP●Research Experience for Undergraduates (M. Ruid)●Minnesota & Michigan Departments of Natural Resources●Charlie Cogbill & David Mladenoff●Nancy Wescott & 19th Century Forts & Observer Database●Relief base maps: www.naturalearthdata.com
The Paleon Project Ecosystem Models
Paleoecological Data
Climate and Vegetation in North America
• Land use change is extensive• Climate has varied & changesQuestion #1:Can we detect changes in species' realized niches?Question #2:Can we provide attribution?
Taxon FundamentalNiche
July Precipitation
July Tem
perature
July Precipitation
July Tem
perature
Available Climate Space
Taxon FundamentalNiche
July Precipitation
July Tem
perature
Available Climate Space
Taxon FundamentalNiche
July Precipitation
July Tem
perature
Land Use
Available Climate Space
Taxon FundamentalNiche
Data Sources●Species Composition:
● Public Lands Survey System● Forest Inventory & Analysis Program Data
●Climate Data:● Gridded CRU TS3.01 July Temperature & Precipitation● 19th Century Forts & Observer Database
●Land Use● NASA Landsat Data Collection – Land Use 2006
Climate Has Changed over 110 Years
Upper Midwest
Modern1990 - 2010
Historical1900s - 1930s
Naïve Model Shows Increasing Precipitation
Historic Fort Data Augments Climate Envelopes
Fort Data US Historical Climatology Network
Land-Use Changes Climate Envelopes
Land-Use Changes Climate Envelopes
Taxon Climate Tolerance
July Precipitation
July Tem
perature
Land Use
Available Climate Space
Climate Kernel Density
Degree and Type of Change Varies
Degree and Type of Change Varies
Walnut (Juglans) gets hot & wet
Degree and Type of Change Varies
Fir (Abies) gets cold
Curves Change Between Historical and Modern
Precipitation fPCA
51% 31%
p < 0.0012nd axis n.s.
Temperature fPCA
77% 12%
p > 0.052nd p < 0.05
Modern1990 - 2010
Historical1900s - 1930s
Communities Are Changing Too
● Rhemtulla et al. (2007) have shown strong changes in regional composition, largely reflecting seral changes (from mature to early seral forests)
● St Jacques et al. (2007) have shown that pollen-climate transfer functions calibrated using modern data do not predict historical data and vice-versa
Rhemtulla JM, Mladenoff DJ, Clayton MK. 2007. Regional land-cover conversion in the U.S. upper Midwest: magnitude of change and limited recovery (1850-1935-1993). Landscape Ecology. 22:57-75.
St. Jacques J-M, Cumming B.F., Smol J.P.. 2007. A pre-European settlement pollen–climate calibration set for Minnesota, USA: developing tools for palaeoclimatic reconstructions. Journal of Biogeography. 35:306-324.
Vegetation Communities Are ChangingFirst Two PC = 22% Variance
Pollen Assemblages Are ChangingFirst Two PC = 22% Variance
First Two PC = 34% Variance
Challenges
• Signals of land use strongly affect species distributions in climate space using modern datasets
• Changing climates in the historical period also reveal broadened climate niche space for taxa
• Historical records provide valuable information and need to be more highly integrated into modeling efforts
SDMs – Garry Oak Connectivity
●Modern presence/absence●Modern climatology (ClimateWNA; 1990s Normal)
Pellatt MG, Goring S, Bodtker KM, Cannon AJ. 2012. Using a down-scaled bioclimate envelope model to determine long-term temporal connectivity of Garry oak (Quercus garryana) habitat in western North America: Implications for protected area planning. Environmental Management 49:802-815.
SDMs – Garry Oak Connectivity
●Modern presence/absence●Modern climatology (ClimateWNA; 1990s Normal)
Pellatt MG, Goring S, Bodtker KM, Cannon AJ. 2012. Using a down-scaled bioclimate envelope model to determine long-term temporal connectivity of Garry oak (Quercus garryana) habitat in western North America: Implications for protected area planning. Environmental Management 49:802-815.
