Estimating Passenger Flows on the London Underground using ... · Harsha Ravichandran • 17 July...
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Estimating Passenger Flows on the
London Underground using Oyster Data
Harsha Ravichandran • 17 July 2013
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Ridership Analysis
How many people take the Piccadilly Line during
the AM Peak?
How well does the supply of trains match this?
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Ridership Analysis
Performed for the
Full AM Peak (7am-10am)
For the peak 30 minutes of the AM Peak
But which are the peak 30 minutes?
Eastbound (EB) and Westbound (WB) directions
Averaged from May 9-13 2011
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Data Used
Oyster
A record for every journey made in the Underground
No data on route taken
RODS (Rolling Origin-Destination Survey)
Rolling survey on user route choice
Does not cover all possible OD pairs
Gateline totals
Information on total number of passengers entering/exiting a station
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Methodology
Query Oyster for trips &
expand
Use RODS to figure out
path choice
Aggregate trips
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What to Query?
All trips?
Only Piccadilly-Piccadilly trips?
Something else?
What about non-oyster trips?
Expansion factors from Gateline totals
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Isn’t that all we need?
D O
What does RODS tell us?
Path 1 X%
Path 2 Y%
Path 3 Z%
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What does RODS tell us?
Description OD pairs Trips
Total Queried (for 5 days) 28,822 1.17 mil
RODS data available 34% 76%
Can we infer more from RODS?
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Assumption #1
OD pairs inferred: 34% 39%
Trips inferred: 76% 80%
D O
D O
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Assumption #2
D O
D* O
OD pairs inferred: 39% 60%
Trips inferred: 80% 92%
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Assumption #3
D O
D O
OD pairs inferred: 60% 65%
Trips inferred: 92% 95%
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Next Steps
The remaining 5%
Loads on segments Ridership profile
What about those other trips?
>2 transfers, Piccadilly line in the middle 4%
What about service frequencies?
24 scheduled trains per hour in Central London
How many do they really operate?
Capacity: 800 passengers/train
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Peak of the Peak
Which is the peak 30 minute period?
Central London: King’s Cross – South Kensington
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
7:00 -
7:30
7:10 -
7:40
7:20 -
7:50
7:30 -
8:00
7:40 -
8:10
7:50 -
8:20
8:00 -
8:30
8:10 -
8:40
8:20 -
8:50
8:30 -
9:00
8:40 -
9:10
8:50 -
9:20
9:00 -
9:30
9:10 -
9:40
9:20 -
9:50
9:30 -
10:00
Central London Arrivals
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Acceptable Trips
Compute acceptable intervals for every station
When should a trip start (or end) to reach Piccadilly Circus
between 8:40 and 9:10?
Filter trips
Repeat analysis for the “acceptable” trips
Supply
Assume all scheduled trips are operated
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