Estimating a Statewide Transportation Funding Shortfall in Florida
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Transcript of Estimating a Statewide Transportation Funding Shortfall in Florida
Estimating a Statewide Funding Shortfall Using MPO Long
Range Plans
Alex Bond, AICPUniversity of South Florida
March 16, 2010
What is an MPO?
• A regional transportation planning agency
• Plans and prioritizestransportation improvements
• Funded by a 1.25% takedownfrom highway programs
• Required in all areas with more than 50,000 people
• Must exist to receive Federal money
Documents Adopted by MPOs
Long Range Transportation Plan (LRTP)– At least 20 years in length
– Revenue estimation
– Cost feasible projects list
Transportation Improvement Program (TIP) Four to five years in length
List of projects to be built
Draws from LRTP pool
Unified Planning Work Program (UPWP) Budget and workflow document
The Theory
•MPO plans cover all urbanized areas of the state, plus a little extra
•Therefore, urban needs are listed in most MPO plans AND all funds destined for urban areas are estimated
•Simple calculations yield the shortfall in transportation revenue at that MPO
•Repeat the shortfall calculation for each MPO in the state
About the Review
• Includes plans adopted between 2003 and 2006
•Project began October 2007
•Report released November 2008
General Methodology•Collected hard copies of
all 25 LRTPs
•Reviewed each plan and supporting documentation
•Extracted financial data for shortfall estimate
•Followed-up with each MPO
•Compared with results from similar projects in 1997 and 2002
“Needs Plan”
•Pool of projects that would meet the region’s needs regardless of cost
•Not required by Federal law, but most LRTPs contain a needs plan in some form
•Based on state policies, local priorities, and future demand
Shortfall Methodology
Adjusting to Common Year
•Plans varied in base year from 2000 to 2006
•All shortfalls adjusted into 2005 dollars, since it was the most common base year
•Consumer Price Index- all Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was used for adjustments
Standardizing and Annualizing
•Plans varied in horizon years from 2025 to 2030
•Some plans begin after the TIP ends
•The shortfall was divided by the number of effective years of the plan
•The annualized shortfall was multiplied by 20
TWENTY-YEAR STATEWIDE FUNDING SHORTFALL
CURRENT YEAR FDOT WORK PROGRAM
Shortfall Details
•$62.5 billion over twenty years
•$3.1 billion per year
•Shortfall is accelerating…fast
Review Year
Shortfall in 2005 Dollars
Percent Growth
Cumulative Growth
1997 $29.8 Billion -- --2002 $42.7 Billion 43% --2008 $62.5 Billion 46% 110%
Note: The 1997 and 2002 reviews have been adjusted into 2005 dollars to enable comparison. The first review revealed a shortfall of $22.3 billion in 1995 dollars. The second review revealed a $37.7 billion shortfall in 2000 dollars.
Limitations and Conditions
•Surface transportation only
•Capital and operating only
•Few attempts to incorporate toll/HOV
•Transit shortfall is probably underestimated due to prevailing programming methods
•Use of “boxed funds” results in zero shortfall
•Disagreement on what is a “need”
Shortfalls Varied ConsiderablyMPO
20-year Shortfall (millions)
Percent Shortfall
Okaloosa-Walton $6,399.2 85.3%
Gainesville $359.1 84.4%
Lee $4,668.6 63.5%
Brevard $935.4 57.4%
Pasco $1,644.4 51.4%
First Coast $3,166.8 47.2%
Collier $2,103.2 41.4%
Capital Region $1,066.5 38.8%
Sarasota/Manatee $983.9 26.6%
Broward $2,245.0 24.2%
Miami-Dade $3,260.6 14.3%
METROPLAN Orlando $1,244.5 12.7%
Pinellas $741.1 9.4%
Indian River -$19.8 -2.3%
Total $62,472.5 42.9%
Larger shortfalls in new, high-growth areas
Smaller shortfalls in older, lower-growth areas
One area had no shortfall at all!
Risk Factors for a Shortfall
•High growth rate
•Outsized needs plan
•State-mandated corridors and modal facilities
•Lack of local sources of funding: sales taxes, impact fees, local option gas taxes
Alex Bond, [email protected] (813) 974-9779
Report available from www.mpoac.org/documents