Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)
-
Upload
gaetano-mazzanti -
Category
Technology
-
view
570 -
download
4
description
Transcript of Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)
![Page 1: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Gaetano Mazzanti
Agile42Gama-Tech
@mgaewsj
ESTEEM
AND
ESTIMATION
![Page 2: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Rumeli hisarı
![Page 3: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
estimates are not“the” problem
the problem is inhow we use estimates
![Page 4: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
why do we estimate?
![Page 5: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
how do we estimate?
![Page 6: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
where are you?
The Marshall Model of Organizational Evolution
![Page 7: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
classic dysfunctions in
estimates
![Page 8: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
padding (bottom-up)
imposed deadlines/unrealistic goals (top-down)
planning fallacy (overoptimism)
fractional task time (multitasking)
precise values instead of confidence intervals
no specific risk estimation (known unknowns, unknown unknowns)
estimate =
= commitme
nt
![Page 9: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
“we estimate the project will take 18726.35 hours”
estiqaatsi!
(WTF)
![Page 10: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
unrealistic targets
that’s impossible!
that’s why I chose you :-/
![Page 11: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
fractional task time
essiamonoi (50%)
essiamonoi (30%)
essiamonoi (20%)
Task A
Task B
Task C
the myth of full capacityd
![Page 12: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
we live in systems
projects on target
“good”estimates
padding
![Page 13: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
being on target
!=
delivering value
![Page 14: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
being “good” at estimating
!=
being good at delivering value
![Page 15: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
failed or challengedprojects*
we live in systems...
fearstress
turnover
quality
imposed targets
R
+
-
+
*68% according to Chaos Report 2009
![Page 16: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Critical PathCritical Chain Critical Pain
![Page 17: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
uncertaintydiscovery
impediments
more detailed planning
traditional planning:single loop “learning”
plan
estimation
delayspoor qualityover budget
![Page 18: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Sisyphus
an eternity of useless efforts and unending frustration
![Page 19: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
judgement and decision making
under uncertainty
+ other limitations of our mind
![Page 20: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
the planning fallacy
humans systematically underestimate how long it will take to do a task
they are over confident in their own estimates
saying “estimate better” or “remember how long previous tasks took” won’t work
deadlines are more significant in determining when work will bedone than many of us realize,or would like to admit
![Page 21: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
overconfidenceclinicians in a study were completely certain of the diagnosis antemortem: they were wrong 40% of the time
appearing unsure is considered a weakness
the admission that one is simply guessing is unacceptable
![Page 22: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
estimating others and the past
people underestimate their own but not others completion times
people focus on plan-based scenarios rather than relevant past experience when predicting
people undervalue past experience (“this time is different”)
![Page 23: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
retrospective estimation
the fallacy holds also looking back to the past:
reported time is typically less than the actual time
![Page 24: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
we are good at comparative estimating
![Page 25: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
mmm not too good
![Page 26: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
illusions we cannot resist
![Page 27: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
anchoring
is the height of the tallest redwood more or less than 250
meters?
vs
what is the height of the tallest redwood?
![Page 28: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
framing effect
odds of survival one month after surgery are 90%
vs
mortality within one month of surgery is 10%
vs
mortality within one month of surgery is 1 person out of 10
![Page 29: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
loss aversion
losses cause much more pain than gains
we don’t close a project when we should for a small hope of avoiding a loss (not achieving a goal)
agreement is difficult to reach (i.e. to renegotiate a contract: your gain is my loss)
![Page 30: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
affect heuristic
“he likes the project so much that he thinks costs are low and
benefits high”
![Page 31: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
posture affects estimates (!)
when leaning to the left we produce smaller estimates :-/
Erasmus University research
http://medicalxpress.com/news/2011-11-physically-affects-decision-making.html
![Page 32: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
need for causality
we attribute causality to events in the past when in fact no cause-effect relationship exists (Retrospective Coherence)
to estimate we need to assume that causality exists
in a complex environment, this assumption is not valid
![Page 33: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
we can’t stand uncertainty
we always look for causal explanationseven when events are due just to chance
we favor certainty over doubt
![Page 34: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
welcome to uncertainty
![Page 35: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
being uncertain
!=
I don’t know
![Page 36: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
uncertain
!=
unpredictable
![Page 37: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
approximately right
vs
perfectly wrong
![Page 38: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
we need (some) predictability for
portfolio management, budgeting, release planning, etc.
![Page 39: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
Agile to the rescue?
![Page 40: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
estimates& the Manifesto
individuals and interactions
working software
customer collaboration
responding to change
processes and tools
comprehensive doc
contract negotiation
following a plan
estimate !
= commitme
nt
![Page 41: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
Agile to the rescue?
small tasks (stories)
comparative sizing
short time-scale
fast feedback
![Page 42: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
“estimating and planning can (and should) be lightweight.
you should stop when further planning is not likely to lead to improved decisions worth the extra effort”
Mike Cohn
![Page 43: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
when starting a project
we simply want a rough idea of size and an understanding of
(un)certainty
![Page 44: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
do a pre-mortem!
![Page 45: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
Agile has ritualized estimation activities
there is some goodand some bad in this
![Page 46: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
planning pokerrocks...conversation
relative estimation
story points & velocity
really?rocks
kind of rocks initially
may become dysfunctional
these should be
treated as ranges...
![Page 47: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
biggest value of theestimation process is
conversation(exploring,discovering)
instead of sizingwe should call it just
understanding
![Page 48: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
15#
18#
21#
24#
27#
30#
33#
1*Feb# 1*Mar# 1*Apr# 1*May# 1*Jun# 1*Jul# 1*Aug# 1*Sep#
average#velocity#
UCL#
LCL#
velocity#
velocity & variability
![Page 49: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
velocity related smells
all sprints end with a100% story completion rate
all sprints have thesame velocity
velocity is increasingregularly at each sprint
![Page 50: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
estimation == waste?
“time spent estimating is time not spent doing value adding stuff”
mmm, yes and no...
![Page 51: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
learning to estimatefrom
s
![Page 52: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
an alternative to Story Points?
just count thenumber of Stories
![Page 53: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
we can use historical data (story count) to predict
scope delivery on a given dateand to estimate
cost (ROI) of story delivery
![Page 54: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
counting & measuringinstead of estimating
![Page 55: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
measure cycle (lead) time
backlog to do in progress donetest
DG
H
JI
F
1 2 2
B
AE
C
cycle time
lead time
![Page 56: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
selection & pull
backlog to do in progress donetest
DG
H
JI
F
1 2 2
B A
E
C
?
![Page 57: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
flow, pull & commitment
commitment = starting something
commit only when you pull
less WIP = less commitment = more options
![Page 58: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
“ok, but I need to sign a contract!”contract: a piece of paper to
define consequences when there's no trust and something goes wrong
use data from the pastacknowledge your ignoranceconstantly monitor progresscross your fingers
(optional) be transparent with your client
![Page 59: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
esteem and respect
![Page 60: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
respect
estimates
!=
commitments
![Page 61: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/61.jpg)
imposed deadlines
top-down deadlines force people to compromise, motivation goes down
no control over the scope or schedule, only one variable left: quality.
if bonus is tied to delivering on-time the only way to achieve that goal is tocut corners
NO RES
PECT!
![Page 62: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/62.jpg)
rebooting teams
execs need to understand/respect what makes a system work and what makes it (un)predictable
you can’t reboot teams, project to project, putting together different people each time and expect to have predictable outcomes
NO RES
PECT!
![Page 63: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/63.jpg)
pretending decisions are shared
“shared” decisions (estimates)are often extorted
NO RES
PECT!
![Page 64: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/64.jpg)
bullying
“when will it be done?”
==
I don't trust you
NO RES
PECT!
![Page 65: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/65.jpg)
the right questions
RESPECTit will take 3 days
why not 2?
why not 4?
![Page 66: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/66.jpg)
safe to fail culture
mistakes are fine! (within boundaries)
you need to learn from them
RESPECT
![Page 67: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/67.jpg)
limit WIP
when you limit WIP you are helping the team:
finishing stuff
making fewer commitments
giving them options
RESPECT
![Page 68: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/68.jpg)
in closing
1.traditional approaches fail(they ignore uncertainty and complexity)
2.our mind will anyway deceive us
3.Agile can help but beware of falling into the same trap as 1.
4.respect is key
![Page 69: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/69.jpg)
estimates can't be wrongthey're estimates!
"accurate estimates" or"improving estimates" =>
just a waste of time
![Page 70: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/70.jpg)
estimates are not“the” problem
the problem is inhow we use estimates
![Page 71: Esteem and Estimates (Ti Stimo Fratello)](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b76bf54a79596d3a8b45a2/html5/thumbnails/71.jpg)
looking at our models and assuming they might be wrong
is the heart of respect
Liz Keogh