Estados Unidos Mexicanos

AP Comp Government 2013

Key Themes

1. Decline of Illiberal Democracy- especially until 2000• 2006 divisive election-PAN gains control of Congress• 2012- will PRI return?

2. Changing Political Culture• distrust in political institutions• return of PRI?

3. Cleavages

2

3

Presidential Election 2006

The Result . . .

BBC July 7, 2006

4Mexico City is Mr Lopez Obrador's most passionate constituencyBBC July 9 2006

Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador may have lost the vote counting after the 2 July presidential election in Mexico. But he is still the big winner on the streets of the capital city.

Hundreds of thousands of enthusiastic Lopez Obrador supporters crammed into the square known as Zocalo, in the heart of Mexico City's historic central district on Saturday. There was no empty space, save behind a few huge banners that blocked the view of the stage.

Men, women and children cheered wildly and waved yellow flags. They chanted the name of the man they believe won last week's election.

Lots of Protest. . .

5

STREET FIESTA: Supporters of Mexico's left-leaning presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador fry food on improvised gas cookers. Their street protest has closed down more than five miles of Mexico City's Reforma boulevard. CSM Aug 15, 2006 ( a month after the last slide)

The party at the heart of Mexico City's protest

6

Supporters of Andrés Manuel Lopéz Obrador, the Mexican leftist candidate, weeping Saturday after his call for a total vote recount was rebuffed

SO then . . . A partial recountNYT Aug. 5 — A seven-member electoral tribunal on Saturday unanimously rejected a demand from the leftist candidate for president for a complete recount of votes, setting the stage for more protests by thousands of his supporters who have camped out in the capital, claiming the election last month was fraudulent.

The judges ruled there were arithmetic errors and other irregularities that warranted a recount of votes in about 10 percent of the polling places. Those polling places are located in 145 of the 300 electoral districts and 26 of the 32 states.

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In the municipality of Zapopan, officials checked ballots during a recount ordered by the electoral tribunal. NYT Aug 10, 2006

8

Mexico lawmakers stop Fox speech

There were chaotic scenes in Mexico's Congress as left-wing lawmakers forced outgoing President Vicente Fox to abandon his final annual address.

Before Mr Fox arrived, the legislators, who allege fraud in recent elections, marched onto the main podium where they shouted slogans and waved placards.

Mr Fox later delivered the speech on TV from his official residence

BBC Sept 2, 2006

Protests continue:

9

The Mexican president-elect, Felipe Calderón, accepted cheers Tuesday at his party’s headquarters in Mexico

City. NYT Sept 5 2006

Sept 6 2006Federal Electoral Tribunal declares a winner

Mexico's top electoral court has rejected claims July's presidential election was riddled with fraud.

The judges said a partial recount of votes had not changed the original result, which gave narrow victory to conservative candidate Felipe Calderon. In their final ruling on Tuesday, the judges concluded Mr. Calderón won the election by a mere 233,831 votes out of 41.5 million cast, a margin very close to the official tally done in early July

.

10

Felipe CALDERON elected president; percent of vote – Felipe CALDERON (PAN) 35.89%Andres Manuel Lopez OBRADOR (PRD) 35.31%, Roberto MADRAZO (PRI) 22.26%other 6.54%;

Final Tally from the CIA factbook:

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Mid Sept –Still Mass Protests

Supporters of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who narrowly lost Mexico's presidential election, held a mass rally in the capital's main square.

12

About 100,000 people crowded into Constitution Plaza in Mexico City on Monday to watch Andrés Manuel López Obrador swear himself in.

Yes, He Lost Mexico’s Vote, So He’s Swearing Himself InNYT Nov 20 2006

13

MEXICO CITY, Nov. 30 — It is a measure of the problems Felipe Calderón will confront as president when he is sworn in on Friday that both his conservative supporters and leftist opponents have camped out on the dais in Congress where the ceremony is to take place. The leftists swear they will stop Mr. Calderón from taking the oath of office. The conservatives vow to ensure that he does. The standoff has become comic, as legislators from both sides have stayed up all night singing ranchero songs in between hurling fists and insults. NYT Dec 1, 2006

And on the eve of Caldron's Swearing in Ceremony. . .

A lawmaker from the conservative National Action Party gave pillows to colleagues in Mexico’s Congress on Wednesday as they and members of the leftist Democratic Revolutionary Party scuffled for control of the dais

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Legislators scuffled in Congress before bodyguards ushered in Felipe Calderón to be sworn in as president. NYT Dec 1, 2006

15

MEXICO CITY, Dec. 1 — It was not pretty, but Felipe Calderón, the new president of Mexico, managed to take the oath of office in Congress Friday, as opposition lawmakers whistled and catcalled and the losing leftist candidate staged a massive march down the central avenue of the capital. Never before in modern Mexican history has a president been sworn in under such chaotic and divisive conditions. At midnight, as President Vicente Fox’s term ran out, the government took the step of broadcasting the private swearing-in of Mr. Calderón at the presidential residence, a legal necessity usually not publicized. Minutes later, Mr. Calderón spoke on national television to urge lawmakers to “respect the Constitution” and let the ceremony take place.The call went unheeded. Mr. Calderón’s opponents from the leftist Democratic Revolution Party tried to block the entrances to Congress to prevent him from being publicly sworn in. But with his conservative National Action Party supporters ringing the podium, he and Mr. Fox were spirited in by bodyguards through a door near the dais at the front of the chamber at 9:50 a.m.

Amid Catcalls, Mexico’s President Is Sworn In

16

As allies applauded and opponents jeered, Mr. Calderón, in sash, beside his predecessor, Vicente Fox, took his oath and left

17

2006 Mexico's ruling National Action Party (PAN) has become the largest party in Congress for the first time.

But the final results of the 2 July elections, released on Wednesday, saw the party fall short of the outright majority required to govern alone.

The PRD came in second place, ahead of the Institutional Revolutionary Party which governed for more than 70 years.

. . . .

In the legislative elections, the PAN won 206 seats in the 500-seat Chamber of Deputies and 52 seats in the Senate.

Mr Obrador's Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) won 126 seats in the lower chamber and 29 in the Senate.

Results in Congressional Elections“Shift of Power in Mexico’s Congress”

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Mexico's teetering president

One year later . . . . From the Economist

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2009: On the ballot were seats for 500 federal legislators, six governors and about 500 mayors and local legislators in 11 states. : Results http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexican_legislative_election,_2009

Opposition Wins Majority in Mexican Vote A voter cast his ballot on Sunday in Mexico City. The party of the Mexican president became the second largest in Congress. See results at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexican_legislative_election,_2009

But . . . After elections in July 2009 . . .

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Calderón's hatful of troubles

The PRI’s victory means that change in Mexico now depends more on the former ruling party than on the president After Mexico's mid-term electionJul 9th 2009

Not only did the PRI, which ruled Mexico for seven decades until 2000, more than double its seats in the lower house of Congress. It also won five of the six state governorships in play and many important mayoralties. Although it won only 37% of the vote (on a turnout of 45%), the PRI will now take most of the decisions that matter over the next three years

PRI’s slogan . . . .“proven experience, new attitude”.

23

25

Note you need 251 for a majority

2009 Elections: Chamber of Deputies: - seats by party—PRI 237, PAN 142, PRD 69, PVEM 21, PT 13, other 10

2006 Elections Chamber of Deputies - seats by party - PAN 206, PRD 127, PRI 103, PVEM 18,

CD 17, PT 16, other 13 (500 total) ;Senate: seats by party - PRI 33, PAN 52, PRD 26, , PVEM 6, CD 5, PT 5,

independent 1;2003 elections – Chamber of Deputies PRI: 224; PAN 149; PRD 97; PVEM 17;

PT 6; CD5; independents 2 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexican_legislative_election,_2003

2000 elections –Chamber of Deputies: PAN and PVEM “Alliance for Change” 221; PRI: 211;

PRD, PT, PAS, CD PSN “Alliance for Mexico” 68 total 500Senate PAN and PVEM “Alliance for Change “51, PRI 60, PRD, PT, PAS, CD PSN

“Alliance for Mexico” 17 total 1281997 electionsChamber of Deputies: PRI 239; PRD 125; PAN 121; PT 7; PVEN 6 total 500

26

OVERVIEW: facts and figures

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Overview: Regime type• Presidential democracy; federal republic• Economy: Capitalist-statist (Freedom House designation)• On paper: separation of powers, checks and balances,

federalism, bicameral• Until 2000: one party dominant regime (opposition parties

were represented in legislature, but one party controlled the process , centralization of power, “Presidencialismo”

• chief of state: Felipe CALDERON• head of government:Felipe CALDERONSee also: http://www.economist.com/countries/Mexico/profile.cfm?folder=Profile%2DPolitical

%20Structure

28

Sovereignty, Authority, and Power

Emiliano Zapata Revolutionary and land reformer, killed in an ambush in 1919

Wedding, pp. 136 & 137 29

Violent Evolutionary Stages1. Bloody Revolution versus Spain (1810 –

1821);

2. Nation-Building (1821 – 1921) from independence to the formation of the Partido Revolucionaro Institucional (PRI), and

3. Economic Boom of the 1960’s, Economic Crisis of the 1980’s and 1990’s, an Assassination of a leading Presidential candidate (Luis Colosio), a Rebellion in Chiapas (both 1994), and a Political Loss for the PRI in 2000. 2000: A watershed in

Mexican Politics

Wedding, p. 137 30

Olmec, Mayan, Toltec, Aztec, & others

Arrival OfCortes

War for Indepen-dence

WarWithUSA

DiazRegime:Porfiriato Revolt

Const-itution Crister

Rebellion

Pre 1500 1519

1810-1821

18461848

1876-1911

1910-1921 1917

1927-1929

Historical & Political Turning Points

Wedding, p. 137 31

PRI’s predecessor

Founded

Gov’tOfCardenas

PemaxOilCo.Nationalized

PANfounded

WomenSuffrage

MassacreOf Tialtelolco

OILCrisis

DebtCrisis

19291934-1940 1938 1939 1953 1968

1978-1982 1982

Historical and Political Turning Points

Wedding, p. 137 32

EarthquakeIn

MexicoCity

SalinasElectedPres.

NAFTA,ZapatisaRevolt inChiapas,Colosio isAssassinated Electoral

Reforms

PRILosesMajority inChamberOfDeputies

PRIPresidentialCandidateBeaten forFirst Time by

VicenteFox

1985 1988 1994 1996 1997 2000

Historical and Political Turning Points

33

Bases of Legitimacy• Revolution—ideology of national

unity, social justice, agrarian reform

• “Mexicanization”• Constitution• Gov’t’s role in promoting

economic growth, social welfare

• 2000 Election• Concerns about legitimacy due to

scandals, corruption, lawlessness, inequality, 2006 election

Picture of Zapata by Diego Rivera

34

Political Culture: Beliefs• Democracy, not authoritarian; but . . .

Democracy = equality > freedom• Distrust govt and state; Political elites seen as

arrogant and distant• Low efficacy; disinterest in govt • Historically tolerated cooption, but corruption

testing this• “proud of Indian past, ashamed of Indian

present”

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OVERVIEW: Population

• Ethnic Groups: mestizo (Amerindian-Spanish) 60%, Amerindian or predominantly Amerindian 30%, white 9%, other 1%

• Religions: nominally Roman Catholic 89%, Protestant 6%, other 5%

• Languages: Spanish, various Mayan, Nahuatl, and other regional indigenous languages

CIA Factbook

36

DRESS CODE: Martha Ramirez works at her stand in Tijuana, Mexico. City regulations will now require vendors to wear traditional dress or a city uniform.

http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/0705/p06s03-wogn.html

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Political Culture: Socialization• Family• Schools—federally mandated curriculum and textbooks• Religion:

--89% Catholics--until 1920, Catholic church actively participated in politics; Priests often led populist movements--Early 20th c. government turned anti-cleric; --church influenced has declined but Church run private schools still educate many middle to upper class children

38

Political Culture: Socialization• Authoritarian elements: instead of mass

mobilization, PRI limited and controlled participation• Mass Media controlled through PRI by funding• More independent since 2000• Electoral reform of 1996 mandates FEI monitors

election coverage for bias, leads to more participation

• Salinas’ privatization leads to more competition in TV broadcasting

39

Citizens, Society, and the State

In Mexico, 52% of voters are womenCNN 2000 election

MEXICO CITY, Mexico (AP) -- President Vicente Fox said Friday that U.S. activists who have called a new Mexican postage stamp racist don't understand the issue and should read the comic book. 7/1/05www.cnn.com/.../americas/ 12/01/mexico.fox.04/

Zapatista Army of National Liberation (EZLN)

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Cleavages: Ethnic• 60% Mestizo, and 30% AmerIndian• Indigenous: Glorified in history, tradition

and revolution, but now . . . • politically marginalized and victims of

Mexico's worst poverty, compared to Mexico's wealthy elite who tend to be lighter skinned and of European origins

• Leads to Chiapas . . .

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CHIAPASWho: mostly Mayan IndiansWhat: form Zapatista Army of National Liberation (EZLN)When: Jan 1994 Where: occupied several towns in State of ChiapasWhy: Indigenous rts. democratization, end to neo-liberal economic reforms

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Subcomandante Marcos

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/1214676.stm

IMPACT: surprisingly popular within Mexico and, together with the economic crisis, helped erode PRI political dominance and to accelerate electoral reforms

43

Since the Zapatistas launched an armed rebellion 1994, the Mexican army has moved between 40,000 and 60,000 troops into the state of Chiapas. Although significant clashes between the rebels and the army have been few, the military, local police and armed paramilitary groups hired by large landowners have been accused of committing numerous human rights abuses against villagers suspected of sympathizing with the rebels.

http://www.drake.edu/artsci/PolSci/ipe/VivaMarcospage.html

44

This mural adorns one wall of a restaurant in San Cristobal. Note the artist's bold political commentary on the choices facing the indigenous peasants of Chiapas. The masked figure on the right represents Subcommandante Marcos, a leader and spokesperson for the E.Z.L.N., or Zapatistas, who sparked a rebellion against the Mexican state that began on January 1, 1994 - the very day that NAFTA went into effect.

http://www.drake.edu/artsci/PolSci/ipe/Muralpage.html

45Marcos on tour, in San Cristóbal de las Casas on Wednesday Jan 4NYT Jan 6, 2006

Zapatista supporters of Subcommander Marcos awaited him in Palenque on Tuesday. In his speeches, he blames "savage capitalism" and the rich for social problems from gay-baiting to racism to

domestic violence.

46

The Outcome•1996 Peace Accord signed b/w Zedillo govt and EZLN

promised protection of indigenous languages and granted indigenous communities’ political

autonomy . . . But never implemented

• Vicente Fox, claimed he could resolve the Chiapas conflict "in 15 minutes"

. . . but has not yet been able to make peace

•Fox's recent proposed constitutional amendment granting more indigenous rights was watered down by Congress,

. . . And the Zapatistas rejected it

47

Cleavages--Area

• Region: Federal District (Mexico City) and northern borders states most privileged; Southern (especially Chiapas, Oaxaca and Guerrero) and central worse

• North is characterized by large-scale export agriculture; land is much more fragmented in the south. South far poorer infrastructure, lower levels of education, and more poverty.

48

Maquiladoras•foreign owned plants that import materials or parts to assemble for re-export•account for about half of all of Mexico's exports, generate more foreign exchange for Mexico than any other sector, including oil •At first, concentrated along the Mexican-U.S. border, now more wide spread• exacerbating north-south gap •Prefer to hire women

userwww.sfsu.edu/ ~jdrew/web/maquila.html

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REGIONAL CLEAVAGES

•Federal District (Mexico City) and northern borders states most privileged; Southern (especially Chiapas, Oaxaca and Guerrero) and central worse

•North --large-scale export agriculture; South land more fragmented and far poorer infrastructure, lower levels of education, and more poverty

Rural Urban: 70% of the population that lives in extreme poverty live in rural areas

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Majority candidate per state according to PREP. Blue: Felipe Calderón, Yellow: Andrés Manuel López Obrador

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More evidence of regional gap:“Mexican riot police have seized control of the southern city of Oaxaca, ending a five-month occupation by striking teachers and leftist activists” BBC Oct 2006

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New UN study says the richest 10 % of Mexicans produce 43 percent of the country's wealth, and the bottom tenth 1 %http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/0127/p07s02-woam.html

CLEAVAGES: Rich/poor Gap

• Long time great inequality—despite rhetoric of Mexican rev • Worse in rural/south• Increased with switch to neo-lib economic policies• govt spending on social security, public health and education low relative to other countries in Latin America

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Cleavages: GenderRepresentation in congress: more proportionally represented than in US—lower house 16% female in 2000; 23% in 2003New Gender Quota Law passed in 2002 requires no more than 70% of the seats in SMDs be the same gender and 1/3 spots on PR lists must be women—implemented in July 2003 elections

Voting: 52% of voters are womenSee: http://www.ipu.org/wmn-e/classif.htm

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Cleavages: Gender

Grassroots: large part of NGOs, protestEconomics: As result of economic crisis of 80s and 1990s, women’s participation increased dramatically; Multinational corps and Maquidores prefer women as more reliable and less likely to protest

More than 1,000 women marched through Mexico City to demand that those responsible for killing hundreds of women in the border town of Ciudad Juarez be brought to justiceBBC Nov 2002

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Participation: Voting • Traditionally done to ratify a choice

of candidates made by PRI hierarchy

• Why: civic duty, law, pressure from local caciques, esp. in rural, sometimes votes sold for handout from local officials

• obligatory voting by law; evidence sometimes required to get public services

• Turnout higher in presidential, went up since 1988, abysmally low in midterm 2003

From the BBC elections 2003 http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/3052124.stm

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Participation Protests:

BBC Election 2006

57Some protesters handed out ears of corn to workers and farmers who marched in Mexico City on Wednesday.

Thousands in Mexico City Protest Rising Food Prices Jan 31 2007

58Protesters in Mexico City on Wednesday made known their displeasure over the rising price of food staples. Jan 19 2007

59

President Felipe Calderón, right, with Roberto González, the president of Gruma, before announcing set prices on corn productsJan 19 2007.

60

Tlatelolco MassacreStudnet Protests 1968

President Diaz, however, was determined to stop the demonstrations and, in September, he ordered the army to occupy the campus of the National Autonomous University of Mexico,Students were beaten and arrested indiscriminately.

The massacre was preceded by months of political unrest in the Mexican capital, echoing student demonstrations and riots all over the world during 1968. The Mexican students wanted to exploit the attention focused on Mexico City for the1968 Olympic Games, calling the games “a diversion for the rich, which the poor are paying for”

61

Student demonstrators were not deterred, however. The demonstrations grew in size, until, on October 2, after student strikes lasting nine weeks, 15,000 students from various universities marched through the streets of Mexico City, carrying red carnations to protest the army's occupation of the university campus. By nightfall, 5,000 students and workers, many of them with spouses and children, had congregated outside an apartment complex in the Plaza de las Tres Culturas in Tlatelolco for what was supposed to be a peaceful rally. Among their chants were México – Libertad – México – Libertad ("Mexico – Liberty – Mexico –Liberty"). Rally organizers attempted to call off the protest when they noticed an increased military presence in the area.

62

The massacre began at sunset when army and police forces — equipped with armored cars and tanks — surrounded the square and began firing live rounds into the crowd, hitting not only the protestors, but also other people who were present for reasons unrelated to the demonstration. Demonstrators and passersby alike, including children, were caught in the fire; soon, mounds of bodies lay on the ground. The killing continued through the night, with soldiers carrying out mopping-up operations on a house-to-house basis in the apartment buildings adjacent to the square. Witnesses to the event claim that the bodies were later removed in garbage trucks.The death toll remains uncertain: some estimates place the number of deaths in the thousands, but most sources report 200-300 deaths. Many more were wounded, and several thousand arrests occurred.

Troops opened fire on protesters in La Plaza de las Tres Culturas

63

In 1997, the Mexican congress established a committee to investigate the Tlatelolco massacre. The committee interviewed many political players involved in the massacre, including Luis Echeverría Álvarez, a former president of Mexico who was Díaz Ordaz's minister of the interior at the time of the massacre. Echeverría admitted that the students had been unarmed, and also suggested that the military action was planned in advance, as a means to destroy the student movement.

However, it is important to note that the PRI’s grip on power was not primarily due to its use of violence.

64

Mexican Court Orders Ex-President Tried in ’68 Student Massacre

MEXICO CITY, Nov. 29, 2006 — An appeals court on Wednesday cleared the way for the arrest and trial of former President Luis Echeverría on genocide charges in connection with the massacre of student protesters in 1968. The court reversed earlier rulings that the statute of limitations had long since run out, saying it had two days to go.The ruling is the final twist in a long battle by the administration of President Vicente Fox to charge and try Mr. Echeverría, who is 84 and in poor health, for his role in the deaths and disappearances of hundreds of students, leftist dissidents and guerrillas in the late 1960s and early 1970s, a period known in Mexico as “the dirty war.”The decision was a victory for Mr. Fox, who leaves office on Friday. He staked part of his political legacy on holding government officials responsible for past atrocities instead of forming a truth commission with no ability to charge people with crimes.

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Protesters were armed with machetes“Mexican farmers cheer airport victory”http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/2169556.stm

Why: • economic crises of 1908s and 1990s, • gov’t doesn’t deal well with security problems, • declining responsiveness of state licensed

“peak association” • gangsterism in govt’ sponsored unions, • blatant PRI election fraud in 1980s, • nationalization of banks by Portillo in 1982, • inadequate response to Mexico city earthquake

in 1985, neo-liberal economic policies,• Increasing societal modernization (higher

education levels, urbanization etc)• More mass communication—b/c of technology

and restrictions on media lifted

participation in popular movements/independent citizen organizations, rise of civil society in 1990s

66

Political and Economic Change

Dead cattle lined a river in Aguadulce, Veracruz, and residents were evacuated after a Pemex pipeline broke in January, spilling semirefined gas.

67

The country Mr. Calderón inherits on Friday has changed in many ways since 2000, when Mr. Fox’s election ended the 71-year monopoly on power held by the Institutional Revolutionary Party. Under Mr. Fox, Mexico has become a country with stronger democratic institutions, vociferous public debate and the end of an imperial-style presidency. NYT Dec 1, 2006

Political change under Fox

68

Blue: Advanced economiesOrange Emerging and developing economies (not least developed)Red Emerging and developing economies

Newly industrialized countries as of 2009

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Economy until the 1970s• Strong elite consensus that state should be a “guiding force” of a mixed economy;

Mexico was to have a capitalist economy, but the Mexican state played an important role in key sectors of the economy, though far less than in socialist economies.

• State was nation’s largest employer,• Practiced import substitution: industrialization was encouraged through import

policies with high tariff protection for Mexican industries and agriculture• Government policies provided Mexican entrepreneurs with subsidized credit and

energy, and very low taxes • PRI's ability to control labor and therefore labor costs also benefited Mexico's

entrepreneurs.• Result: “Mexican Miracle” economic growth (annually 6-7%) and low inflation

(5%) but inequality and then crashes in economic crisis of 1970s and 1980s

71

Economy today: globalization and market liberalization

• Most recent presidents—more free reign to market forces; liberalized Mexico's statist economy, abandoned social commitments (like land reform)

• Structural adjustment: (a policy of economic liberalization adopted in exchange for financial support from liberal international organizations, typically includes privatizing state run firms, ending subsidies, reducing tariff barriers, shrinking the size of the state and recombining foreign investment)

• Fox responsible for preserving macroeconomic stability (although without reducing unemployment or significantly improving growth)

• North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with the United States and Canada in 1994

• Growing gdp, growing inequality

72

FROM Import substitution : a trade and economic policy based on the premise that a country should attempt to reduce its foreign dependency through the local production of industrialized products

TO Structural Adjustment

73

a policy of economic liberalization adopted in exchange for financial support from liberal international organizations, typically includes privatizing state run firms, ending subsidies, reducing tariff barriers, shrinking the size of the state and recombining foreign investment)

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The government, rather than contributing to a rebound, is making matters worse. Thanks to revenue from the nationalised oil industry, Mexico’s governments have traditionally collected little tax. Despite recent fiscal reforms, federal tax revenue amounts to only 11% of GDP, among the lowest in the world.But oil output is falling rapidly, mainly because of a constitutional ban on private investment in energy. The finance ministry cleverly hedged much of Mexico’s oil output this year back in 2008, when prices were near their peak. But oil income will fall in 2010. As a result, Mexico may see its credit rating downgraded, even though the public debt is only 43% of GDP

HDI

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See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_Human_Development_Index

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PEMEX

• See slide show: http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/09/business/worldbusiness/09pemex.html

78

Pemex is in trouble. Its production and proven reserves are falling, and it has no money to reverse the slide. Mexico is the second-largest supplier of imported oil to the United States, after Canada, but its total exports are slipping. If the company continues on its current course, Mexico may one day have trouble just keeping up with rising demand at home.The evidence of its predicament is clear not far from the KU-S platform. On the horizon, some 50 to 60 miles into the southern Gulf of Mexico, aging rigs billow flames and black smoke over the waters as they burn off the natural gas they are unable to process.The major reason that Pemex’s prospects are so poor, energy experts agree, is government interference. The Mexican government, which expropriated the oil industry in 1938, depends on Pemex to finance its budget. Last year, sales at Pemex (its full name is Petróleos Mexicanos) reached $97 billion. But $79 billion of that went to the government, Pemex’s chief, Jesús Reyes Heróles, said last month. That accounted for almost 40 percent of the federal budget.Government interference is only part of the story. Pemex has been hamstrung by years of short-sighted management aimed at extracting the most cash for the government treasury — Mexico’s president and Congress must approve the company’s budget, its output, investments and exports each year. By law, Pemex is closed to any outside investment, shutting it off from private capital and expertise.

If you couldn’t see the slide show or access the article . . . Here’s the gist

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80

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MASSIVE INEQUALITY

• Long time problem, despite Mexican revs commitment to equality• shift to neo-liberal policies increased gap• Problem not evenly distributed—worse in rural areas, central and South• Huge informal sector indicates poverty

http://www.economist.com/surveys/displayStory.cfm?Story_id=403154

82

From the first article: “Yet even if the ruling party manages to build_c______________, the public might be more defiant. The industrial__________(region) , which has benefited from free-trade agreements like NAFTA, went overwhelmingly for Calderón, while the poorer___________(region) has embraced Obrador - which could make it hard for voters to eventually legitimize a winner.

83

GINI INDEX: a measure of inequality

84

Correlation with per-capita GDPPoor countries (those with low per capita GDP have Gini coefficients that fall over the whole range from low (0.25) to high (0.71), while rich countries have generally low Gini coefficient (under 0.40).

The Gini coefficient is a measure of inequality It is usually used to measure income inequality, but can be used to measure any form of uneven distribution. The Gini coefficient is a number between 0 and 1, where 0 corresponds with perfect equality (where everyone has the same income) and 1 corresponds with perfect inequality (where one person has all the income, and everyone else has zero income). The Gini index is the Gini coefficient expressed in percentage form, and is equal to the Gini coefficient multiplied by 100. The Gini coefficient's main advantage is that it is a measure of inequality, not a measure of average income or some other variable which is unrepresentative of most of the population, such as GDP

85

President Cardenas (1934-40)•most important reformer; embodied socialist aspects of Revolution•first president to implement the Constitution's call for land reform •Integrated peasants and workers into state-controlled unions •Nationalized foreign-dominated oil industry ; created PEMEX (state oil monopoly )•won the PRI the enduring political loyalty from Mexico's workers and peasants

86

Economic crisis in 1970s and 1980s • Huge deficit b/c govt had been trying to spend its way

out of accumulating social and economic problems w/o raising taxes—fuels inflation

• Over reliance on oil to fund govt and borrow on, then world wide decline in oil prices in early 1980s

• Presidents de La Madrid (1982-1988) and Salinas (1988-1995) responded by abandoning protectionist policies, land reform and adopting neo-lib policies

• Salinas uses “shock therapy” of a sort (price and wage controls, boost revenues, cutting spending)

87

1990s collapse of the peso

• sudden crash of peso and massive capital flight in December 1994

• Why: though inflation had declined to one digit, peso had become seriously devalued, gov’t decides to ignore until after election, skittish investors, inexperienced financial team after election

• Saved by massive bailout by US• Suffered huge loss in creditability, huge

wage drop

88

NAFTA• More diverse economy, though 90%

exports go to US• Manufacturing exports grown at rate

of 75% per year• Agriculture: b/c of NAFTA, amount of

Mexican food imports from the US has doubled. This lowers food prices, helps some exports but creases a massive crisis for millions of Mexico's farmers

• FDI increased, though most goes to Maquiladoras (North)

Farmers say Mexico must withdraw from the treaty

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The recession has exposed structural weaknesses in Mexico’s economy. NAFTA brought a torrent of American investment as manufacturers set up plants south of the border to take advantage of lower labour costs. This influx brought modernisation and new technology, and underpinned rapid economic growth in the late-1990s. . . .

But NAFTA has left Mexico highly dependent on the health of the American economy, and on a few lines of cross-border business in particular... These include car manufacturing, the construction industry and tourism.

More evidence of economic liberalization• Mexico to Repeal '82 Bank Takeovers; Salinas Submits Plan to End `Paternalism‘

The Washington Post | May 3, 1990| William Branigin | .

• Member WTO (1995) Mexico Joins Canada in WTO Beef Complaint Vs. US ABC News Dec 2008 Under country-of-origin labeling, foreign cattle and pigs must be segregated in U.S. feedlots and packing plants, prompting some firms to only deal with American livestock. Foreign animals are also required to have more documentation about where they come from and, in the case of cattle, must have tags that indicate they are free of mad cow disease.)

• Replaced IS with SA• Reduced power of unions with demise of _______________ism• And . . . The PROPOSAL to . . .

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A supporter of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the former presidential candidate, at a Mexico City rally in March. His banner, referring to the state oil company, reads, “Pemex is not for sale.” NYT 4/8/2008

State Oil Industry’s Future Sets Off Tussle in Mexico

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MEXICO CITY — A bitter debate over what to do about Mexico’s ailing state oil monopoly has dominated national politics here in recent weeks, tapping strong emotions on both sides and resurrecting the political fortunes of the leftist leader who narrowly lost the 2006 presidential election.Revamping the oil company, Petróleos Mexicanos, or Pemex, is perhaps the greatest challenge facing the administration of President Felipe Calderón, a conservative economist who won the disputed 2006 election by a hairbreadth. At stake in the debate is not only the future of the Mexican economy but also the supply of oil to the United States. Last year, Mexico was the third largest supplier of crude imports to the American market, after Canada and Saudi Arabia. The government has neglected the public company for 20 years, siphoning off its profits. Now production is dropping, reserves are dwindling, and Pemex lacks the technology to go after undersea oil, the administration says.To reverse dropping production, Mr. Calderón and his conservative National Action Party favor permitting some form of joint ventures with private firms to

allow Mexico to tap potential deep-water reserves.

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But his rival, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the former Mexico City mayor and presidential candidate, has called any private investment in Pemex a threat to

national security and has accused Mr. Calderón of secretly seeking to sell off the industry to private investors, a charge the president denies.“The government, for 25 years, has acted in a deliberate manner, on purpose, to ruin Pemex because they have only one goal, to make Pemex into booty to be plundered and privatize the oil business,” Mr. López Obrador said in an interview.He has cast the president’s proposals as a threat to national sovereignty, asserting Mexico “would be condemned to quit being a country and would turn into a colony.”The leftist leader has skillfully used the issue to catapult himself back onto center stage in national politics after a year of remaining on the fringes. At mass rallies, he has threatened blockades of roads, airports and oil wells by his followers if the president even introduces a bill to Congress. With leftists promising unrest, President Calderón warned last week that ignoring the company’s problems would cause a catastrophe.Yet as of Monday afternoon, Mr. Calderón and his allies in Congress still have not submitted a bill, an indication of their fears of a tough legislative fight and of mass protests. Many members of Congress are growing restless as Mr. López Obrador continues to attract attention with his arguments.

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The lack of investment in exploration and refineries has left Mexico in dire straits. Oil production has been falling since 2005. Last year alone, it dropped 5.3 percent, to about 3.1 billion barrels a day. At the same time, Pemex has begun to exhaust Mexico’s giant offshore Cantarell Field, one of the world’s largest. Reserves are disappearing, too, as Pemex pumps oil faster than it can find new deposits. Even exports of crude are falling. To make matters worse, the company has failed to build a new refinery since the 1970s. Mexico now imports about 40 percent of its gasoline, mostly from the United States.Against this backdrop, Mr. Calderón’s energy minister, Georgina Kessel, and Pemex’s director, Jesús Reyes Heroles, unveiled a report last week that said Pemex needed to enter into joint ventures with other companies to increase its production. But the obstacles to such a reform in Congress are formidable. For starters, a bill that gives Pemex more of its own profits to invest will mean either cutting government spending or raising taxes. Neither option appeals to lawmakers in any party.

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In addition, since President Calderón’s party does not control Congress, he must persuade members of the former governing party, the Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, to support his bill. If any offer their support, and it is unclear how many will, the political price they exact from Mr. Calderón would be high, analysts say.Mr. López Obrador, meanwhile, has managed to define the debate broadly as a question of national sovereignty. No one in Congress wants to seem to be selling off Mexican oil reserves to foreign companies.

“They don’t want to talk about anything that might be called privatization by López Obrador,” said David Shields, an author who has spent his career studying Pemex. Despite the constitutional ban on foreign investment, the state oil company already buys technology and services from giant companies like Halliburton and Schlumberger. The Calderón administration has argued in the past that no foreign company is going to sell the technology for deepwater drilling without receiving some of the oil found in return, a position most industry analysts agree with. Recently, however, aides to the president have backed off that argument, saying they will propose contracts with cash incentives for discoveries rather than a percentage of production

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Ever since President Lázaro Cárdenas nationalized the oil industry in 1938, Pemex has been politically sacrosanct. Taking the oil fields back from foreign companies marked a high point in Mexican history. It was one of the few times Mexico’s leaders stood up to business interests here and in the United States on behalf of the Mexican public. So any suggestion of selling off the company to private investors sparks strong protests, especially from left-leaning parties. “In the rest of the world, oil is a commodity,” said Hermenegildo Castro, a Senate aide. “In Mexico it is a symbol of sovereignty and nationalism.” The trouble is the company is also broke and in debt, despite bringing in $100 billion in revenues last year and enjoying some of the highest crude oil prices in history. For decades Pemex has been a cash cow for the government. It has milked the company’s profits to pay for social programs, operating expenses and government salaries, allowing it to keep taxes low and providing presidents with enough largess to keep the political peace. About 40 percent of the federal budget comes from the oil company.Some years the taxes the government has exacted from Pemex have forced the company to borrow to balance its budget. A corrupt oil-workers union with a penchant for no-show jobs and lavish perquisites has made matters worse. The government has starved Pemex so severely that company officials and the Calderón administration now say the oil giant has neither the money nor the expertise to explore risky, deep-water oil fields and must enter partnerships with foreign firms, something the Constitution prohibits.

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Political Institutions

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Level of Government: Supranational: WTO (free trade) , IMF, World Bank (conditions of loans: structural adjustment pushed)

WTO Meets in Cancun summer, 2003

Security is tight and authorities have constructed a metal fence around the complex. Demonstrators have

clashed with police

99

Institutions: Federalism

on paper, federal

• emphasis on “municipio libre” (free municipality, able to control its own affairs)

• 31 states and the Federal District (Mexico City) State governors elected for six-year terms; each state has a local (unicameral) legislature and a governor elected for 3 year terms and has the right to levy state-wide taxes;

• each state divided into “municipios” (like our counties) governed by councils, headed by a mayor

100

Institutions FederalismIn practice—very centralized

• Federal govt (PRI) controlled elections

• governors knew Mexico City and federal politics, not state they governed

• Senate could and did topple state govts if state could not provide domestic security

101

Mexico City Legalizes Abortion Early in Term

MEXICO CITY, April 24 2007 — The Mexico City legislature approved a bill Tuesday to make abortion legal during the first three months of pregnancy, a watershed vote that set the stage for court battles and social clashes between religious conservatives and liberals. . . . Proponents of the law say they hope it will become a model for states in Mexico, most of which only allow abortion under conditions like rape or danger to the mother’s health. Many on each side of the issue predicted it would ultimately be challenged on constitutional grounds before the Supreme Court. Opponents said they would challenge it on the grounds that there was a prohibition in the Mexican Constitution against the death penalty that could be broadly interpreted to grant the right to life to unborn children. Supporters of the vote argue that in 2002 the Supreme Court ruled that abortion was legal in circumstances like rape and incest, and therefore they say it is unlikely that the court would agree to overturn the new law.

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October 29, 2006

3 Killed in Mexican Protest; Police Move In OAXACA, Mexico, Oct. 28 — Hundreds of federal riot police officers and soldiers took up positions outside this besieged tourist city in southern Mexico on Saturday, poised to end an increasingly violent protest that has shut the downtown for five months and left about a dozen people dead

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After a five-month standoff in which protesters had occupied the main square of the colonial city of Oaxaca, federal police armed with water cannons and backed by heavily armed soldiers advanced on protesters. By nightfall, they had taken control of the city’s main square, which had been an encampment of protesters. The protesters seek the removal of the governor of Oaxaca State.

Mexican Forces Move

to Retake Oaxaca

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Mexico’s New President Sends Thousands of Federal Officers to

Fight Drug Cartels

TIJUANA, Mexico, Jan. 6 — President Felipe Calderón ran last summer on a promise to create jobs, but in his first five weeks as chief executive he has made it clear his first priority is to turn his government into the scourge of organized crime.The president has sent thousands of federal police and troops into the drug-plagued states of Michoacán and Baja California to break up criminal organizations and stop the brutal violence they perpetuate. The federal forces have burned marijuana crops, arrested suspected drug gang members and disarmed local police forces the authorities say are crippled by corruption

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Since 1984 some decentralization:• limited revenue sharing, •As opposition begins to win, first in municipalities and then of states, more freedom since not beholden to PRI•with economic crisis, education and healthcare responsibilities shifted, •with Fox’s election, much less “extra constitutional” control by presidents•See book re funding

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Institutions: Executive Branch• “Presidencialismo” until recently• Power never contested by judicial, legislative branches• Presidents had informal power to seat/unseat MCs,

Mayors, Governors, Judges• Succession: 6 year terms, no reelection, in practice

president picked successor • Qualifications: 35, native born, not member of clergy or

military• Powers: issue decrees with force of law, directly

introduce legislation, veto, appoint and remove judges, cabinet, C in Chief

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The congress holds two ordinary sessions per year. The first session begins on November 1 and continues until no later than December 31; the second session begins on April 15 and may continue until July 15. A Permanent Committee (Comisión Permanente), consisting of thirty-seven members (eighteen senators and nineteen deputies), assumes legislative responsibilities during congressional recesses. The president may call for extraordinary sessions of congress to deal with important legislation.

• Historically, the Senate consisted of sixty-four members, two members for each state and two representing the Federal District elected by direct vote for six-year terms. However, as part of the electoral reforms enacted by the Salinas government in 1993, the Senate was doubled in size to 128 members, with one of each state's four seats going to whichever party comes in second in that state. Since 1986 the Chamber of Deputies has consisted of 500 members, 200 of whom are elected by proportional representation from among large plurinominal districts, and the remainder from single-member districts. Members of the Chamber of Deputies serve three-year terms. All members of the congress are barred from immediate reelection but may serve nonconsecutive terms.

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• The powers of the congress include the right to pass laws, impose taxes, declare war, approve the national budget, approve or reject treaties and conventions made with foreign countries, and ratify diplomatic appointments. The Senate addresses all matters concerning foreign policy, approves international agreements, and confirms presidential appointments. The Chamber of Deputies, much like the United States House of Representatives, addresses all matters pertaining to the government's budget and public expenditures. As in the United States, in cases of impeachment, the Chamber of Deputies has the power to prosecute, and the Senate acts as the jury. In some instances, both chambers share certain powers, such as establishing committees to discuss particular government issues and question government officials. The deputies have the power to appoint a provisional president. In the event of impeachment, the two chambers are convened jointly as a General Congress. Each legislative chamber has a number of committees that study and recommend bills. If there is disagreement between the chambers, a joint committee is appointed to draft a compromise version.

• Judicial

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http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7341821.stm

• Mexico legislators storm congress

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111

Vicente Fox: elected July 2, 2000

•First president from the opposition•PAN•Campaign promises of economic policy with a “human face” and an end to corruption and rule by “narco- politicians” •Former rancher, State Governor, MC and Coca Cola general manager

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•won by a bare 240,000 votes, and his main opponent, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, a populist former mayor of Mexico City,•.•holds advanced degrees in law, economics and public administration.

• son of one of the Nation Action Party’s founders, he has been active in politics since he was a youth and became the party’s youngest leader in its history in 1993.

•Most recently, he served for 13 months in the Fox administration, first as the head of a development bank and then as energy minister.

•He served two terms in Congress and proved to be a tough negotiator when he was the head of the party’s delegation from 2000 to 2003, good at forming coalitions and bridging partisan differences.

Felipe Calderón; elected July 2006

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Institutions: Legislature• Chamber of Deputies: 500 member lower house—3 year terms, revenue

bills must originate here, exclusive powers over appropriations and budget• Senate: 128 member upper chamber; 6 year terms, exclusive power over

foreign affairs-approves treaties by majority once submitted by president, power to remove state governors and depose state legislatures

• “High turnover with “nonreelection” principle: Article 59 of Constitution provides that Mexican legislators cannot be reelected to consecutive terms—As a result, from 1970 to 1997 only about 17 percent of Mexican deputies entered the lower house with any previous legislative experience, effectively depriving Mexico of the kind of senior lawmakers who dominate the US system.

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PRD members say they plan to disrupt Friday's inauguration BBC 11/28/2006

Rivals in Mexico's Congress have exchanged punches, just days before President-elect Felipe Calderon is due to be sworn in to office.

The scuffle occurred after left-wing deputies tried to take the podium to protest against Friday's inauguration.

Deputies could be seen throwing punches and grabbing each other's clothes, and at least one man ended up on the floor.

Members of the left-wing party, the PRD, say Mr Calderon won July's presidential election by fraud.

The speaker of the chamber, Jorge Zermeno, suspended the session.

Fistfights in Congress

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Powers of Legislature:

Makes Law: all regular legislation must be approved by both houses and submitted to president who must publish bill within 10 days or return to bill to the original chamber ;Congress can override veto with 2/3 vote

Declares War

Approve nominees

Approves budget

Debates: remember, even under PRI, one party dominant, not one party systemCan deny president right to travel (see below)

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Mexican President Vicente Fox has accused the main opposition party of blocking progress by denying him permission to travel to the United States and Canada.

BBC April 2002

Fox is told he travels too much

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September 23, 2008

Mexican President Enjoys Newfound Freedom to Fly

By MARC LACEY

MEXICO CITY — On his way to New York for the United Nations General Assembly meeting on Tuesday, President Felipe Calderón of Mexico will hop on his presidential jet for the very first time without having to ask permission to fire up the engines and go.Until the Constitution was changed over the summer, Mexican presidents had to seek approval from their nation’s Congress every time they sought to touch a toe on foreign soil. If the Congress was in an ornery mood, as it was during former President Vicente Fox’s term, it could — and sometimes did — say no.Twice, Mr. Fox was embarrassed when lawmakers told him he could not leave the country. The first time came during a low point in his relations with Congress in 2002, when a trip to the United States and Canada had to be scratched. Soon after, a planned trip to Australia was grounded because the president’s critics suggested that Mr. Fox was going there to visit his daughter. A stop in Vietnam for the annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit meeting was rejected as well.When Mr. Calderón took office in 2006, after a hard-fought election that ended in a virtual tie, many speculated that he would spend much of his six-year term stuck in Mexico. After all, his National Action Party lacks a majority in Congress and some opposition lawmakers do not even recognize him as the country’s legitimate president.  . . . And the constitutional change, which passed Congress, albeit with plenty of opposition, means that only presidential treks of more than a week will require the president to approach lawmakers with hat in hand. Foreign Minister Patricia Espinosa has said the change will allow more flexibility in presidential travel and “increase and strengthen the country’s work overseas.”  add to http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/28/world/americas/28mexico.html?ref=world

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Executive-Leg Relations: Changing• In the past, president dominated b/c unified govt., high discipline and he was recognized as de

facto head of party but now . . . • Evidence Congress more assertive: number of approved bills down, more legislation originates in

Congress• Relns b/w Fox and Congress: his party did not dominate, Fox's proposed reform of Mexico's

tax structure was torpedoed by PRI and PRD opposition, and Congress blocked his effort to negotiate a reduction on tariffs for imported sugar. Mexico's upper house even used its constitutional power to bar Fox from traveling to the United States in April 2002, complaining that the president was not paying enough attention to domestic politics.

• After 2006 elections—well fistfights to protest inauguration don’t bode well; PAN controls president and has largest block in Congress but not enough to govern alone: divided govt

• 2009 elections: now PRI has largest block

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Electoral Reforms of 1990sWhat: Electoral reforms-cost a billion dollars but did improve electionsWhen: in 1993-1994 and 1996, Salinas govtWhy: build up domestic and international credibility for 1994 electionsHow: • high tech, photo id cards issued to entire 42.5 million person electorate• Federal Electoral Institute strengthened, given more autonomy, PRI

denied a majority• Independent tribunals to investigate, special prosecutor to investigate

violations of electoral laws, new electoral crimes defined• Legalized international observers and independent Mexican citizens

observers formally recognized• Exit polls authorized and publicly announced on election night• Ceilings on contributions • increased public funding for all parties • Threshold for PR: 2%

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Electoral System for Congress-- mixed

• The Cámara de Diputados (Chamber of Deputies) 500 members, three year term, 300 members elected in single-seat constituencies and 200 members elected by proportional representation in multi-seat constituencies (threshold 2%)

• The Cámara de Senadores (Chamber of Senators) 128 members, six year term , 96 of them in three seat constituencies and 32 by proportional representation. In the constituencies two seats are awarded to the plurality winner and one to the first runner-up.

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Electoral system for Lower house of Congress : mixed

Election of Lower Chamber through the principle of relative majority: The elections of the 300 SMD through the principal of relative majority is conducted in 300 SMD. The distribution of the 300 districts among the 32 federal entities is established according to the percentage of the population living in each of them. Therefore, the results of the census of population and dwelling must be considered. This census is carried out every 10 years in Mexico. The constitution establishes that no entity may have less than 2 federal SMD. Election of Lower Chamber Members through the principle of proportional representation: The election of the 200 Lower Chamber members through the principle of proportional reprensentation is carried out by means of regional voters list in 5 multi-member districts. 40 Lower Chamber members are elected in each of these districts. Threshold 2%

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Electoral system for Composition of the Upper Chamber: The Upper Chamber of Senate is composed by 128 members. 3 senators are elected in every one of the 32 federal enitities. For this purpose, the political parties must register a list with 2 formulas for their conidates. 2 of the seats are allocated through the relative majority principle, that is, they belong to the party that obtained the largest number of votes. The 3rd one is appointed through the 1st minority principle, that is, to the party that obtained the 2nd largst amount of votes.

The remaining 32 seats are appointed by means of the PR system according to voter rolls in one single, national multi-member district.

Electoral system for Upper house of Congress : mixed

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Electoral System for President

• Plurality

• Note: 6 year terms, can not be reelected

124

Institutions: Judicial Branch• Structured like US with a Supreme Court and

courts at local and state level • 11 Sup Ct justices, nominated by Pres for 15 year

terms; approved by Senate• Powers—under PRI—not independent; public

perception judicial system still corrupt, esp. at local level

• new reforms in 1996 give Supreme Court judicial review; now more assertive

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The Mexican legal system is based on Spanish civil law (based on the Napoleonic code) with some influence of the common law tradition. Unlike the United States version of the common law system, under which the judiciary enjoys broad powers of jurisprudence, Spanish civil law is based upon strict adherence to legal codes and minimal jurisprudence.

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August 28, 2008

Mexico Court Is Set to Uphold Legalized Abortion in Capital

By ELISABETH MALKIN

MEXICO CITY — A majority of Supreme Court justices have said Mexico City’s law legalizing abortion does not violate the Constitution, making it likely that the court will uphold the controversial measure. Since deliberations began this week, 8 of the 11 justices spoke in support of the law. Its passage last year was considered historic in this Catholic country and in a region where almost all countries severely restrict abortion or ban it. The law allows unrestricted abortions in the first trimester of pregnancy. A ruling upholding the law would be a setback for the conservative federal government of President Felipe Calderón, which filed a legal challenge a month after the city legislature

approved the law.

127Protesters placed crosses on Mexico City’s main square to represent 12,500 abortions since the city legalized them last year.

Mexico Court Is Set to Uphold Legalized

Abortion in Capital

128

System of Law

• Derives from Roman and Napoleonic traditions

• Explicit; highly formalized• Constitution long and

relatively easy to amend (eg electoral reforms)

• Administrative law created by regulatory agencies

                       

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Institutions: Military

• Historically—military intervenes• One of biggest accomplishments of revolution

is to establish civilian control• Institutional loyalty tested in 2000 but civilian

control won out• Human rights abuses in Chiapas, and in

dealing with drug and security problems

Institutions- Political Parties and Public

Policies

02/07/12

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Institutions: Party system• Under PRI: “one party dominant” (contrast to China) • Means opposition parties were tolerated and held seats • But PRI maintained key positions and co-opted opposition• Now 3 party system (though even more represented in

Congress) but two party in most of the country: North and West—PAN vs PRI; South and West PRI vs PRD, Mexico City all three

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Institutions: PRI• Inclusive party with no clear ideology• Founded in 1929, become increasing

indistinguishable from the state• Who supports: in last four elections,

older, less wealthy, less educated, union membership (weird- why?)

• Even with historic defeat in 2000 PRI is still a strong party—Until 2006, majority in Senate, largest plurality in CD, more than half of governorships; 2009 largest plurality again

PRI comeback - a blow for Presidential PAN http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/3052124.stm

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PRI CONTROL—many ways:

Electoral fraud: stuffing ballot boxes, disqualifying opposition party poll watchers, relocating polling places at the last minute to sites known only to PRI supporters, manipulating voter registration lists, padding them with nonexistent or non resident PRI supporters or “shaving off” those who were expected to vote for opposition, giving multiple voting credentials to PRI supporters, confiscating credentials of opposition voters, or buying them for material benefits, organizing carruseles (‘flying brigades”) of PRI supporters transported by truck or van to vote at several different polling places . Plus, they held majority representation in state and local government entities that controlled vote counting and certification—most common was to add votes for PRI (instead of taking away from opposition) so that sometimes total number of voters exceed total number of registered voters or even adults

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Control though system of corporatism:

Refers to a political or economic system in which power is given to civic assemblies that represent economic, industrial, agrarian, social, cultural, and professional groups. These civic assemblies are known as corporations. Corporations are unelected bodies with an internal hierarchy; their purpose is to exert control over the social and economic life of their respective areas. Thus, for example, a steel corporation would be a cartel composed of all the business leaders in the steel industry, coming together to discuss a common policy on prices and wages. When the political and economic power of a country rests in the hands of such groups, then a corporatist system is in place.

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•PRI organized society into 3 sectors: Labor, Peasant, Popular

•each sector rept by one “peak association” (1) Confederacion de Trabajadores de Mexico (CTM) for labor sector, (2) Confederacion National Campesino (CNC) for Peasants and the Confederacion National de Organizacions Populares (CNOP) for Popular

•Associations get a seat at the table for policy negations, subsidies, jobs for leaders

136 

Corporatism Pluralism

•Single “peak” assoc. reps a societal interest•Compulsory/universal membership•Central organization•Groups systematically involved in making and implementing policy•State grants “favored status”

•Multiple groups can rep. a single interest•Non-compulsory membership•Decentralized organization•Clear sep IG/govt•In competition among groups for policy not all groups equal

137

Interest GroupsCorporatist system breaks down in 1990s—rising civil

society and opposition parties give alternatives economic crisis means less money for patronage, pork, electoral competition –IG SYSTEM now more pluralist

138

Control through Patron Client system

• Patron Clientelism “camarilla” – System of cliques of personal connections

fueled by charismatic leaders– Patron-Client network extends from the

political-elites through a variety of vote-mobilizing organizations throughout the country

139

PATRON CLIENT RELATIONS ILLUSTRATED

During the PRI's long rule millions of Mexicans lived in extreme poverty. During the 1990s over 17,000 people survived as pepenedores, garbage pickers who lived and worked in Mexico City's rat-infested garbage landfills. Journalist Alma Guillermoprieto describes how the PRI web of patron-client relationships extended all the way down to the lowly pepenedores. 2 She argues that garbage dump caciques were able to use patron-client relationships to provide services for the garbage pickers and, most important, to protect their jobs against government officials seeking to move them out of the dumps. One community of pepenedores was awarded a neighborhood of homes across the street from a dump, complete with a school and running water. With this extension of aid, the PRI secured the support of some of Mexico's most destitute voters.—

Decline of PRI

1. 1990’s Election Reform

• Lost “incumbency advantages”

2. Demographic changes- population has shifted to urban areas (esp Mexico City)

3. Economic Crisis of the 1980’s140

Campaign Finance Reform

• Before: no reporting of private donations and PRI used unlimited public funds

• 93-94: private contributions limited to $650,000• 96- private contributions further limited, public funds

for all parties• Yet problems still continue- PEMEX funneled $140 to

PRI in 2000 through one of its sectors (corporatist)• Since PRI- No buying tv or radio adds (instead rely

on free media time) 141

142

PAN•Founded in 1939 in response to leftward drift of Cardenas; oldest opposition party •center-right, with strong elements of Christian socialism •Who supports: northern border states and north central states, NOT rural •Plagued by internal divisions

Victory for Fox 2003http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/813206.stm

PAN Platform

1. Expanding states rights, especially in the form of more revenue-sharing

2. Proportional Representation- both chambers of Congress

3. Voting Reform bills

4. Neoliberal economic policies (NAFTA)

5. Yet some interesting ones…

• Profit sharing b/w businesses and employees

• National consumer protection agency

143

144

In Aguascalientes on Saturday Jan 2006, Mr. Calderón (PAN candidate) reached out to farmers.

2009 Elections: Chamber of Deputies: - seats by party—PRI 241, PAN 147, PRD 72, PVEM 17, PT 9, AN 8, convergence 8,

Victory in 2006 elections (still no majority)

145

Note you need 251 for a majority

2009 Elections: Chamber of Deputies: - seats by party—PRI 241, PAN 147, PRD 72, PVEM 17, PT 9, AN 8, convergence 8,

2006 Elections Chamber of Deputies - seats by party - PAN 206, PRD 127, PRI 103, PVEM 18,

CD 17, PT 16, other 13 (500 total) ;Senate: seats by party - PRI 33, PAN 52, PRD 26, , PVEM 6, CD 5, PT 5,

independent 1;2003 elections – Chamber of Deputies PRI: 224; PAN 149; PRD 97; PVEM 17;

PT 6; CD5; independents 2 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexican_legislative_election,_2003

2000 elections –Chamber of Deputies: PAN and PVEM “Alliance for Change” 221; PRI: 211;

PRD, PT, PAS, CD PSN “Alliance for Mexico” 68 total 500Senate PAN and PVEM “Alliance for Change “51, PRI 60, PRD, PT, PAS, CD PSN

“Alliance for Mexico” 17 total 1281997 electionsChamber of Deputies: PRI 239; PRD 125; PAN 121; PT 7; PVEN 6 total 500

146

Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD • formed: In 1980s a leftist faction in PRI, led

by Cardenas, son of former president, left PRI and formed PRD

• Opposes neo-liberal reforms and neglect of poor Mexicans, calls for more nationalist and protectionist policies

• who supports: Mexico City and the rural south, urban working class

• Left has historically been weak due to internal divisions

• PRI also reduced revenue-sharing to state governments controlled by the PRD)

• Have also prosed a parliamentary system

March 2002 the PRD elected a new leader, Rosario Robles, the first woman to lead a major Mexican party. Robles is a former member of Congress and popular former mayor of Mexico City. A former student activist, she is an outspoken opponent to free-market policies

147

Andrés Manuel López Obrador campaigning last week in Tehuantepec on a swing through Oaxaca State. NYT March 19, 2006

2006 election Platform: •He promises to cut the salaries of top government officials and the president himself. He vows to do away with lavish pensions for ex-presidents. He says he will slash wasteful government spending and root out corruption in the government and entities like the state-owned oil monopoly, Pemex. •He says that with the savings that will rack up, he will establish food subsidies for the elderly, monthly stipends for the disabled, free health care, free education through college, and aid for single mothers. He also pledges to cut the costs of electricity, natural gas and gasoline, all of which are relatively expensive in Mexico despite its oil reserves. •Mr. López Obrador also says he wants to renegotiate the free trade agreement with the United States to protect more farmers and workers in other weak sectors."The next president of Mexico will not be a puppet of anyone," he said here on Thursday, a veiled suggestion that Mr. Fox has been too closely allied with Washington. Then he added, "We are going to protect our markets as they do in the rest of the world."

148

Social Capital: • Refers to the institutions, relationships attitudes and

values that govern interactions among people in society and contribute to economic and social development. It includes the shared values and rules for social conduct expressed in personal relationships, trust and a common sense of "civic" responsibility, which make a society more than just a collection of individuals.

149

Public Policy

Many would-be migrants at the US border are intercepted http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/country_profiles/1210779.stm

courses.dce.harvard.edu/. ../archive_0.html

Economic Policy

1. 40’s-70’s Mexican Miracle

• But Increasing gaps b/w rich and poor

• Mixed economy- state provided financing resources more than private banks

• State owned companies- PEMEX (oil)

• Growth 6-7%

• Rural areas- 70% poverty

• More subsidies spending than social programs150

1980’s-90’s Economic Crisis

1. Huge debt payments, had to reduce social spending further

2. Oil prices plummeted

3. Real wages fell by 67%

4. Peso devaluation of mid 90’s

5. Nearly 50% poverty level, and 25% extreme poverty

6. By 1987, Mexico was one of the most heavily indebted countries in the world- 70% of GDP

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Fox and Calderon

• Neolibearlism- Privatization programs (Televisa)• Lowered taxes encouraged maquilladores (factories)• Oportunidades- safety net for job losses• Seguro Popular- goal is universal health coverage• Covers underemployed, rural workers, and

unemployed• Low premiums, 20% don’t have to pay any premiums

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Lawlessness• epidemic of violent street crimes—

armed robberies, muggings, kidnappings, rapes and homicide

• Gov’t not dealing with it well• High percentage of violent crimes

related to operation of drug cartels A tunnel used to transport drugs to the US from Mexico

Drug Trafficking

• Fight began in 2005 with raid on La Palma maximum security prison

• Fox promised to get rid of corruption but the problem continued to grow during his presidency

• Calderon- stepped up war on drugs• Reliance on federal troops• Result- murder rate continues to spiral out of control

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Corruption• Flourished under long dominance of PRI•Democratization, increased transparency (FOIA now), improved judicial reforms may help—though drug trafficking complicates •Still a tough problem—hampers legitimacy: eg from BBC Feb 22 2005“Mexico has been shaken by the arrest of a senior member of President Vicente Fox's staff on suspicion of leaking information to drugs traffickers”

Police corruption impedes effective policy against traffickers from “Mexico fights spectre of narcopolitics” “http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/4247859.stm

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Human Rights Violations

The UN has criticized Mexico's handling of the Juarez murders (400 abductions/murders, rape, mass graves, since 1993; recent 7 and 10 year oldhttp://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/4584951.stm

• Though not as bad as some Latin Am nations, PRI did maintain control in part thru govt sponsored violence against protestors (1968)

• throughout the 1990s, Human Rights groups documented wide spread use of torture, summary executions and disappearances sponsored by govt

• Fox promises to improve, FOIA passed under his administration to make it easier to open archives on human rights violations

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Demand Justice for the Women and Girls of Ciudad Juárez and Chihuahua, MéxicoAmnesty International

                                                                  

A black cross and the word "justice" painted on a lamp post in Ciudad Juárez, Mexico in support of finding an end to the more than 370 murdered women in Juárez and Chihuahua

Immigration

• Fox- pushed for guest worker program, amnesty, increasing visas and movement in return for tighter Mexican border control

• Calderon has been highly critical of increasing US border security

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Migration• Internal: rural to urban, South to North• External to US: dates back to Bracero

Program, Immigration Reform 1987 sanctions employers, both Fox and Bush pledge to address; Bush’s Guest Worker program

• Migration rate –4.57 -3.61 migrant(s)/1,000 population (2009 est.)

• country comparison to the world: 156

President Bush has said a deal on Mexican immigration is a priorityhttp://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/4183447.stm

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Today there are almost 11 million Mexicans living in the U.S. (about 10 percent of Mexico's total population, and four percent of the U.S. population). According to some estimates, the amount of foreign exchange sent to Mexico by Mexicans living outside the country has grown to almost $20 billion dollars annually, making it the largest single source of foreign exchange (even larger than revenue earned from oil exports). NYT March 2006

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More than 400 Mexicans died in 2005 trying to enter the United States (though in only two cases was the Border Patrol involved). That looms large in Mexican consciousness. Every Mexican knows someone who has crossed the border, if they haven't done so themselves. The harder and more dangerous it gets, the more Mexican public opinion may turn against the United States. The free movement of goods, but not of labour, across the border was always likely to cause problems Economist Jan 12, 2006

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Environment

• Policy difficulties reflect priorities of developing countries

• Air pollution in Mexico City: 88% of the days are above acceptable levels of air pollution for humans

• air pollution also has intensified along the border with the US because of the growing number of maquiladoras, as well as the increased truck traffic with the United States.

163A Mexican flag is barely visible in the smog-filled skies over Mexico City. (AP/Roberto Velazquez)

Mexico City pollution eroding residents’ sense of smell

Officials have taken steps to address the problem. In 1989, the city introduced “Hoy No Circula,” a program in which cars with license plates ending in certain numbers would be prohibited from driving on a given day of the week.

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Other Environmental ProblemsFrom the CIA Factbook

• scarcity of hazardous waste disposal facilities; • rural to urban migration; • natural fresh water resources scarce and polluted in

north, inaccessible and poor quality in center and extreme southeast;

• raw sewage and industrial effluents polluting rivers in urban areas;

• deforestation; widespread erosion; desertification; deteriorating agricultural lands

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political party An organized group that makes nominations and contests elections in the hope of influencing the personnel and policy of government.

single-member-plurality system (SMP) An electoral system in which the candidate with the most votes wins, even though that win may not represent 51% of the votes.

single-party system A party system in which there exists only one party and no political alternatives are legally tolerated. one-party-dominant system A party system in which there are political alternatives but a single political party dominates the political process as a result of the overwhelming support of the electorate.

two-party system A party system in which there are two credible contenders for power and either is capable of winning any election

two-party-plus system A party system in which there are two major contenders for power of approximately equal strength plus one or more minor parties able to win seats but not to control the government.