Establishing Cause and Effect from Data Jason McFall, Causata.
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Transcript of Establishing Cause and Effect from Data Jason McFall, Causata.
Establishing Cause and Effect from DataJason McFall, Causata
Use temporal informationCauses precede effects
Granger causality
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Does wage inflation lead to price inflation, or vice versa?
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Major Product Purchase in Store
Store all the detail, in time order
filter customer journeystime
filter customer journeysalignrelative timetime
before after
Build models
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Bayesian networksAnalysing observational data is hard
ExperimentPut the science into data science
INTERVENTION
CONTROL
Split population randomly into two groups
Measure outcomes for both groups
Randomised Controlled Trials
Renewal rate
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Randomise
Concurrent control
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Bandit algorithmsIncluding random exploration
confi
denti
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response rate
Regulated exploration/exploitation
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Retain Customer
Measure the right thing!
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Beware of bias
Beware of bias
Confirmation bias
Analysing observational data is HARD. It’s often much easier to do experiments!
Randomise
Use concurrent controls
Be alert to bias
Summary
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Thankyou