EST - Week3 The Theory of Path Dependence and Polya Urn Processes
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The Theory of Path Dependence and Polya Urn Processes ECN 503 / İKT 119 Readings in Evolutionary Political Economy Week No. # Altug YALCINTAS, PhD Associate Professor Ankara University a [email protected]
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Ankara Üniversitesi, SBF, I İktisat, "Evolutionary Social Theory" PP dokümanları Ankara University, Faculty of Political Sciences, Economics, "Evolutionary Social Theory" PP documents
Transcript of EST - Week3 The Theory of Path Dependence and Polya Urn Processes
The Theory of Path Dependence and Polya Urn ProcessesECN 503 / İKT 119 Readings in Evolutionary Political Economy
Week No. #
Altug YALCINTAS, PhDAssociate ProfessorAnkara University
Two of the cases in which mostly economists are interested
•Dvorak, QWERTY (Q type keyboard), and F type keyboard
•Polya Urn Processes
QWERTY, Dvorak, and F type keyboards
This is available for you to see in the «Sütunlu Salon»
Just check out your laptops and smartphones!
QWERTY, Dvorak, and F type keyboards
Why do we use QWERTY’s?
(1) Are QWERTY’s «the best» keyboard systems?(2) As we mostly type Turkish texts, why do we still use
QWERTY’s which are supposed to be the best keyboard system in English?
(3) Or, why do we not use F keyboards?
QWERTY, Dvorak, and F type keyboards
Why do we use QWERTY’s?
(1) A problem in mechanical keyboards, Dvorak: jamming and clashing of mechanical parts
(2) A solution in mechanical keyboards, Dvorak: speed down the typist lower the number of jammings increase the number of letters, words, and sentences typed
QWERTY, Dvorak, and F type keyboards
Why do we use QWERTY’s?
(3) After the solution: Dvorak QWERTY
(4) Mechanical QWERTY speeds down the typistBut(5) Mechanical QWERTY helps you type more letters and words
(at least, this is the original argument!)
QWERTY, Dvorak, and F type keyboards
Why do we use QWERTY’s?
(6) After digital keyboards, the problem disappeared!No jamming and clashing of mechanical partsIn other words, we have a SOLUTION without a PROBLEM
(7) But we still use QWERTY’s in our PCs, laptops, and tablets even when we type in Turkish!!!
QWERTY, Dvorak, and F type keyboards
Why do we use QWERTY’s?
(8) Sunk costs(9) Habits of conduct(10) Pathways(11) History and institutions matter!
The Theory of Path Dependence
QWERTY, Dvorak, and F type keyboards
What is a pathway anyway?
Source: http://amr.aom.org/content/34/4/689/F1.large.jpg
QWERTY, Dvorak, and F type keyboards
The theory of path dependence
«Small» events Mechanisms of
Positive feedback or self reinforcement
«Big» consequences
QWERTY, Dvorak, and F type keyboards
What is a small event anyway?
• Chance events Super Lotto• Random events «bingo» or «Tombala»• Probabilistic events You pass an exam or you fail• Contingencies Earthquakes
• An important element is the mechanisms of positive feedback and self-reinforcement
QWERTY, Dvorak, and F type keyboards
What is a contingency anyway?
• In Turkish: «Olumsal» or «Başka türlü de olabilecekken olmuş olduğu gibi olan şey»
• Opposite of necessity
QWERTY, Dvorak, and F type keyboards An example to positive feedback mechanisms:Imagine you’re in a music studio, a small bar with live music, or a «köy düğünü»
A small (smaller) sound
A big (bigger) sound
QWERTY, Dvorak, and F type keyboards An example to positive feedback mechanisms:Imagine you’re in a music studio, a small bar with live music, or a «köy düğünü»
BOOM!
QWERTY, Dvorak, and F type keyboards An example to positive feedback mechanisms:Imagine you’re in a music studio, a small bar with live music, or a «köy düğünü»
No feedback in between
Out
put
Input
QWERTY, Dvorak, and F type keyboards
Established cases of path dependence:
• QWERTY vs. Dvorak• VHS vs. Beta• Internet Explorer vs. Netscape• Silicon Valley• Economic clusters
Keep in mind:These cases are, mainly, related to the economics of technology!
QWERTY, Dvorak, and F type keyboards
Other established cases of path dependence:
• Emergence of capitalism• Why did capitalism emerge in Northern Europe?
• Colonialism• Why are some countries rich and others poor?
• Political economy of the European Union• Is the full adoptation of different law systems, customs, and
rules possible?
QWERTY, Dvorak, and F type keyboards
What other cases of path dependence can we think of?:
• Language? • University? • Family?• Science?
• How about your own private lives?
In these cases:• Does history matter?• Can you observe small events?• Can you observe positive feedbacks?
Polya Urn Processes
An experimental game• Significance of small events• Unpredictability and randomness• Nonlinearity
Polya Urn Processes
Polya Urn Processes
A simulation:
http://success-equation.com/urn.html
Polya Urn Processes
Polya Urn processes in social sciences• Value systems• Gender studies• Biographies and autobiographies• Rule of law (in Turkey)• Situation in the Middle East
