Esri Scotland Conf 2016 - Atmos
Transcript of Esri Scotland Conf 2016 - Atmos
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Bringing the environmental and planning expertise
to maximise the value of your investment
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Modelling bird behaviour to progress wind
farm development
Tom Hartley
Principal GIS Consultant
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Atmos Consulting
Our service areas
Renewable energy
Sustainable Development
Biodiversity
Property and Construction
Marine and Coastal
Water resources
Environmental Management
Our specialisms
Environmental Impact Assessment
Town Planning
Ecology and Ornithology
GIS mapping and analysis
Noise and Acoustics
Hydrology
Project Management
Expert technical, environmental and planning support throughout the entire project
life-cycle, from feasibility to implementation.
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Onshore Wind and GIS
• Historically a good match
• Data has a potentially long shelf life
• Spatial modelling often required to
assess impacts on sensitive receptors
• Maturing sector and recent changes to
subsidies have lead to increased
pressure to do more with less
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Can’t see the birds?
Theoretical modelling of bird activity
Leadhills wind farm
• Turbines < 2km from Special
Protection Area
• Lack of activity recorded in Vantage
Point surveys
• Uncertainty over potential impacts on
key ornithological species – objection
from Scottish Natural Heritage
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Random Collision Risk Modelling
SNH (2000)
Usually derived from Vantage Point surveys -how to substitute activity levels in the flight risk volume?
• Define the flight risk volume
• Calculate how much of this volume is swept by
turbine rotors
• Calculate activity levels within this volume for
each species
• Calculate the number of bird transits through
the swept rotor volume
• Calculate the probability of a bird being hit in
each transit
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The Solution
• A model to predict the time spent
in the windfarm airspace based on
territory / nest locations and
ranging behaviour
• Species-specific information
derived in part from the Atmos
GIS database
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The Solution
How to define nest locations?
1. Historical nest locations provided by
SNH and local raptor study group
2. Worst case nest locations based on
interpretation of aerial photography
3. Random nest locations within SPA
based on breeding populations
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The Model
• Define nest locations
• Map the ranging behaviour per nest
• Combine overlapping buffers as a grid
• Calculate the time spent in the turbine
envelope
• Correct for time spent at risk height
• Substitute for observed activity levels
in existing random CRM
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The Result
• Low risk of adverse impacts on
populations
• Provided sufficient information to allow
SNH to remove their objection and
pass appropriate assessment
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Further use in Pre-planning
Cumberhead wind farm
• Turbines < 2km from same SPA
• Operational commercial forestry
• Low activity levels of SPA species
• Is survey data representative?
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Additional Model Validation
• Incorporated active survey data to
appraise worst case locations
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The Result
• Model predicted low risk of adverse impacts
on populations
• Case was made to reduce survey effort from 2
years to 1
• Rationale accepted by consultees and project
submitted June 2015 and consented February
2016
• Significant saving of time and money for client
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SNH Guidance
• Work was undertaken in close contact
with SNH
• Modelling approach included in 2016
SNH guidance:
• Wind farm proposals on afforested
sites - advice on reducing suitability for
hen harrier, merlin and short-eared owl
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Incorporating habitat preference
Lethans wind farm
• Forested site, with turbines < 2km from SPA
• Habitat Management Plan proposed for 25 year lifetime of wind farm
• Felling may increase attractiveness to raptor species
• Model revised to incorporate habitat suitability into ranging behaviour from each nest
• Submitted to planning August 2016
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Further applications
• Assessing different species
(behaviour and distribution) for
different sites or regions
• Testing different future scenarios
• Re-powering of existing sites using
historic data?
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Questions?