NO MATTER WHO WINS IN TUSCALOOSA on Nov. 5, a legend is sure to be born. No. 1 vs. No. 2 has that kind of instant and lasting effect on college football. And when the clash is between two teams that share a conference—and bad blood that goes back 116 years—calling LSU vs. Alabama “the Game of the Century” might sound like a cliché, but it also happens to be true.

Consider the history and stakes: The Tigers and Tide have met 74 times (Bama leads

COLLEGEFOOTBALLInside the lines/Around the game

GAME OF THE 21ST CENTURY NO. 1 LSU VS. NO. 2 ALABAMA IS SUCH AN EPIC SHOWDOWN, MERE MORTALS SHOULDN’T BE ALLOWED TO PREDICT THE WINNER. SO WE ASKED A COMPUTER.By LaRue Cook

Illustration by Tavis Coburn 41ESPN The Magazine November 14, 2011

LSU WITH LEE

42%

20.9

1.6

2.2

2.5

0.1

10.2

22.9

44.6

118

0.6

0.9

43

146

3.4

1.1

45 –24–5) but never as the nation’s top two teams. This matchup of SEC West powers is being billed as the confer-ence’s unofficial title game. The team that emerges will be the clear favorite to win the real thing in December at the Georgia Dome, a game that has produced the past five BCS title winners.

So who has the edge? Pundits have their opinions, but in a sport that determines who plays for its title based on what a computer spits out, we thought the best way to answer that question would be to consult the same technology. The Mag asked Stephen Oh of the sports prediction site AccuScore.com to run 10,000 game simulations of LSU at Alabama, one play at a time, to produce a projected final score plus game stats. Of course, football never unfolds without a wrinkle, so to account for the unforeseen, AccuScore also ran simulations that altered major storylines for each team.

One of those wrinkles is LSU’s starting quarterback dilemma. Coach Les Miles placed senior Jarrett Lee under center in Week 1 after the Tigers’ incumbent, Jordan Jefferson, was suspended in the preseason. Surprise! Lee has thrown 13 touchdowns against just one intercep-tion. Jefferson returned on Oct. 1, but despite his lobbying for more snaps, the Tigers gain little with him under center in AccuScore’s projections. In fact, due to

Lee’s SEC-best 157.4 passer rating, LSU has a 3% greater chance of beating Bama when he leads the huddle.

The Tigers’ prospects diminish as soon as they step off the bus, as homefield advantage strongly favors Alabama. The Tide have a 58% chance of winning at Bryant-Denny Stadium, where coach Nick Saban’s team has lost just once since 2008. If the two rivals met in Baton Rouge, LSU would have a 52% chance of victory.

Each team has a vaunted defense—

Alabama’s is ranked No. 1 in the FBS and LSU’s No. 3 through eight games—yet the two units are so dominant, they essentially cancel each other out. So for the Tide, the pressure shifts to the shoulders of their Heisman-hopeful running back, Trent Richardson. Based on AccuScore’s projections, the junior will carry the ball 19 times for 87 yards and a TD. Although those numbers seem pedestrian, that total is more than the Tigers have allowed a single player to rush for this season. Likewise, Bama’s

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COLLEGE FOOTBALL

42 ESPN The Magazine November 14, 2011

AccuScore ran 10,000 simulations to predict the outcome of LSU-Alabama, including how the Tigers would fare if they started Jarrett Lee (No. 12) or Jordan Jefferson (No. 9). The results ...

GAME ON

projected yards on the ground (163) are 50 more than any opponent has gained against LSU in 2011. What if Richardson tanks? Trouble. AccuScore ran a scenario that had him producing 50% fewer explosive runs and a higher fumbling rate. Alabama falls from a favorite to a one-point underdog.

When both teams play to their full potential, though, Bama wins. AccuScore’s final score: 23-21. Luckily for LSU fans, the game is still played on turf and not inside computers.

LSU WITH JEFFERSON

GAM

E ST

ATS

SPEC

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TEAM

SPA

SSIN

GRU

SHIN

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Chance of Winning

Points per Sim

Turnovers

Field Goals

Field Goal Attempts

Return TDs

Pass Completions

Pass Attempts

Completion %

Passing Yards

Passing TDs

Interceptions

Rushing Attempts

Rushing Yards

Yards per Carry

Rushing TDs

58%

23.5

2.3

1.8

2.1

0.1

15.7

29.1

53.9

181

0.9

1.4

37

163

4.4

1.5

ALA

39%

19.7

2.0

2.1

2.4

0.1

9.3

22.2

42.0

109

0.6

1.3

42

142

3.4

1.1

You don’t need MEL KIPER JR. to tell you that LSU and

Bama are loaded with defensive talent. So we asked our favorite draft guru to look around the college football nation and break down three defensive surprises—two from the front seven and one from the secondary.

Penn State LB Gerald Hodges A quarterback and safety in high school, Hodges didn’t make the switch to linebacker until he got to Penn State. The junior has grown into a 6'2", 234-pound force on the outside (58 tackles, 3.5 sacks

and a pick through eight games). Hodges can

still cover like a safety, but now he hits like a linebacker. He’ll do

well in an NFL 4-3 set.

Clemson DE Andre Branch This senior has the skills to be a late first-round pick. He blew me away on Oct. 1 in the Tigers’ 23-3 win over Virginia Tech with six tackles for loss, four sacks and a forced fumble. He beat the O-linemen out

of their stance, and for a guy who’s 6'5", 260

pounds, he has that great closing speed that NFL scouts

look for and love.

NC State CB David AmersonI talked with his coaches before the season, and Amerson wasn’t even among their top five defenders. Now he leads the nation with eight picks (through Oct. 22). He has great size (6'3", 194) and a phenomenal break on

the ball—he can really turn his hips—and he’s

a force against the run. Just a sophomore, he’ll be on the NFL

radar down the road.

HIT MAKERS