Esp 167 Presentation - Joey Dinh
description
Transcript of Esp 167 Presentation - Joey Dinh
Bringing Research Insights to the Policy Process in California
Jordan Ramalingam & Joey Dinh
Presentation Outline
● Methodology of writing policy briefs● Project Summaries
o Climate Policy Risks Among CA Farmerso Cellulosic-Ethanol & CA Fuel Portfolio
● Conclusions/Recommendations
http://www.sandiegotroll.com/images/california-state-seal-plaque.png
Writing Policy Briefs
● Emphasize implications
● Concise & focused
● Understandable
Climate Policy Risks Among California Farmers
Title: Perceptions and responses to climate policy risks among California farmers
Problem Statement● Climate policy risk
o Potential threat with policies to farmer adaptability
o Poses economic, environmental, and social risks to farmers.
http://www.gannett-cdn.com/-mm-/5a7e268554649ae37cf8c45a9642f5b8fc7ee146/c=0-0-3648-2736&r=x383&c=540x380/local/-/media/USATODAY/test/2013/09/17/1379433385000-XXX-climate-change-north-dakota-corn018.jpg
Hypotheses● Perceptions of climate
change will affect response
o Previous climate experiences
o Experiences with previous environmental policies
http://www.sbcapcd.org/images/ag.jpghttp://i2.cdn.turner.com/money/2012/08/02/news/economy/drought-food-exports/us-crop-export.gi.top.jpg
Background (Methodology)● Surveys conducted in Yolo
County
● Analysis of variables by structural equation model (SEM)
● Dependent/Independent variables
Results● Most believed in CC but
won’t feel effects
● Past policy experiences did not affect participation but it does affect their perception of climate change
● Perceived CC risks affect participation and regulation concern
Conclusion● Farmers prefer incentive
programs over regulations
● Need communication between climate change and effects on farmers
http://d24pg1nxua23qm.cloudfront.net/contentAsset/image/73bdeff8-7bec-4695-b623-7947826ad84d/image/byInode/1/filter/Resize,Jpeg/jpeg_q/90/resize_w/604
Transportation Fuel Portfolio and Cellulosic Ethanol● Based on research done by UC
Davis Faculty: Civil Engineers Yuche Chen and Yueyue Fan
● Article: Transportation fuel portfolio design under evolving technology and regulation: A California case study
Problem Statement/Background ● California is dependent on
Gasoline
● Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS)
● Alternative low carbon fuels must become a bigger part of the market to meet the LCFS
● In other words: Biofuelso Specifically, cellulosic
ethanol http://themodernape.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Biofuel.jpg
What is Cellulosic Ethanol?● Biofuel made from plant residue and other non-food plant based
sourceso Corn cobs, crop residue, wood chips, leaves
● One quarter the carbon intensityof gasoline
● No impact on food markets
http://inhabitat.com/u-s-energy-dept-gives-105m-to-make-fuel-from-corn-waste/
http://www.mississippi-crops.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/CornStalks2.jpg
Methods of Analysis● Fuel portfolio model
o Analyzes from 2011-2020● Main parameters for the model
o Minimize system wide costo Meet the LCFSo Meet demand
● 4 major fuels consideredo Midwest and CA Corn Ethanol, Brazilian Sugar Cane Ethanol,
Cellulosic Ethanol and Gasoline● Measured the impact of a breakthrough in the cellulosic ethanol
industry on cost and emissions
http://www.cleantechinvestor.com/portal/images/stories/magazine/MAR10/bp_sugarcane.jpg
Results- Baseline Scenario● Baseline Scenario:
optimal market fuel forecast until 2020, assuming no major breakthrough
● Brazilian ethanol replaces Midwest corn ethanol and is replaced by cellulosic ethanol
● Cellulosic Ethanol will expand by 2017
Conclusions- The Bottom Line● The earlier the breakthrough, the greater the cost and
emissions reductions by 2020● Cellulosic ethanol must greatly expand in the market
by 2017 to guarantee compliance with the LCFS
Project Liberty: in construction, soon to be opened
http://ethanolproducer.com/articles/10601/poet-dsm-provides-update-of-project-liberty
● The industry is expected to
expand by 2017
Recommendations From the Briefs
Farmers Perception on Climate Change● Establish direct lines of
communication between policymakers and constituents
● Use more of a carrot (rather than stick) approach
Transportation Fuel Portfolio and Cellulosic Ethanol● Encourage R&D to
advance this technology● Capitalize on
breakthroughs● Set goals to ensure the
industry has developed by 2017