ESO Coronavirus Preparedness20th May 2020

Recap of topic areas from the Webinar last week

Please ask any questions via the Q&A section in Webex and we will pick them all up at the end of the session and answer those now which we can.

These slides, event recordings and further information about the webinars can be found at the following location:

data.nationalgrideso.com/plans-reports-analysis/covid-19-preparedness-materials

We updated you on our business continuity plans, including our preparation for the recovery phase

From a national demand perspective, we provided:

• a view of the demand suppression overserved during the Sunday PM briefing

• an assessment of the overall demand reduction since the start of lockdown

• the outturn of the demand from the early May bank holiday morning

• And a forecast of demand up to 31st May, including the late May bank holiday

We highlighted what we have done to manage these periods of low demand, including: a Sizewell de-load contract, Super SEL contracts and the Optional Downward Flexibility Management (ODFM) Product

And finally, we provided a reminder of the NRAPM process and documentation

ACCURATE TIMELY FLEXIBLE

Pandemic Plans Activated

Restricted access to operational area

& Control Staff

Non-critical staff to work from home

Daily reporting on absenteeism

Shift rota enhanced with trained & re-

authorised individuals

Social distancing measures in place in Control Room

Identify & respond to system operability challenges

Ongoing engagement with industry, BEIS and

Ofgem

Continuity plans in place for higher

absenteeism levels

Recovery plan under development

Critical Staff remain protected

Protecting Critical Staff to maintain Critical Operations

Recovery Plan

Plan developed & undergoing review with TUs

and stakeholders

A gradual, phased return, in line with Working

Safely Guidelines issued – office capacity is

severely reduced and looks very different

Critical staff remain protected and this will

continue during Recovery

Taking the opportunity to review our ways of

working and a recovery to Build Back Better

ESO assessment of demand reduction

Graph shows % drop between what we have observed & what we would expect from our models had there was no Covid-19.

Demand referred to is our proxy for the total demand in GB; not just the demand on the transmission system.

Bank Holiday Weekend (23rd to 25th May) | Demand

DateForecasting

point

National

Demand

(GW)

Distributed

wind (GW)

Distributed

PV (GW)

Overnight min 14.0 2.6 0.3

Afternoon min 15.6 3.2 6.4

Overnight min 13.8 2.5 0.3

Afternoon min 16.7 3.1 5.9

Overnight min 15.4 1.2 0.1

Afternoon min 17.8 1.2 7.9

Sat 23rd

May

Sun 24th

May

Sat 25th

MayMon 25th

May

Minimum Overnight demand - Planning

Please note numbers are for indicative purposes only

Minimum Daytime Demand - Planning

Please note numbers are for indicative purposes only

A note on our BSUoS updates published 15th May 2020On May 8th we provided two forecasts, both for May 2020 with demands impacted by COVID-19 factored in:

1. A forecast assuming ‘normal’ seasonal weather; and

2. A forecast assuming more ‘extreme’ weather

Based on stakeholder feedback, on 15th May we provided 2 updates:

1. We evolved our May 8th forecasts into a single most likely view, using a range of weather scenarios to determine a best view of weather for May 2020. This update is labelled Impact on BSUoS due to COVID-19 low demands – Excluding new services. This update shows expected BSUoS had the ESO developed no new approaches to manage the low demands and is provided for purposes of comparison

2. We provided a new main forecast, labelled BSUoS Forecast for Summer 2020 – Including new services which uses the updated best view of weather and overlays the forecasted costs and benefits of using the new tools and services available to the ESO.

All of the Forecasts can be found on the ESO data portal here

£m

OutturnForecast date

April 8th May 15th May

2019Normal

Weather

Normal

Weather

Extreme

Weather

BSUoS Forecast for Summer

2020 – including new services

Impact on BSUoS due to COVID-19 low demands – excluding new services

May 64.4 101 177.3 276.7 166 174

June 89 207.7 268.1

July 71.1 214.9 272.7

August 108.7 237.7 324.7

Total 333.2 826.3 1,039.5

Deep Dive- BSUoS Forecast Methodology

Step 1 Develop a cost per hour of operating at very low demand points.

Using operational tools we created the expected costs of managing the system at low demand levels (less than 18 GW) without new services.

We then repeated the activity but this time offset the costs with the use of new services.

Two datasets were created to reflect the different actions required to manage overnight and afternoon minimums.

These costs are sensitive to the volume of actions required and the costs of the actions taken.

The current methodology for BSUoS forecasting is based on history. A different approach is required to capture the changes brought about by COVID-19 demand suppression.

The key driver in increased costs from demand suppression is at the very lowest demand points. These low demands are not present in the pre-COVID-19 BSUoS forecast

Step 2 – Create a model of potential demands

Using historic weather variation data we created a large number of weather sensitivities.

We took these sensitivities and created a demand forecast for each sensitivity.

We then created a cost forecast for each demand sensitivity using the cost data from step 1

The mean value of all the sensitivities was then used as the additional costs expected from continued demand suppression.

Step 3 – Add the additional costs into the baseline BSUoS forecast

The additional costs were added onto the baseline costs from previous forecasts. Uncertainties exist in these forecast;

Changes to lockdown restrictions over the rest of the summer, the forecast assumes similar levels of demand suppression already experienced through to the end of August;

Cost and usage of ODFM over the summer, which could depart from our current assumptions; and

Weather

What have we done | Optional Downward Flexibility Product | Update

2.4GW across 170 units have signed onto the service terms with more volume in the pipeline and we are confident that we will sign up more providers this week.

The service was instructed for maximum effective delivery of 238 MW between 04:00 and 07:00 on 10-05-2020. The BMRS Demand forecast was adjusted to account for this service.

Market communication related to service instructions will be published via:

https://extranet.nationalgrid.com/sonar/

Please sign up for notifications

Further details related to the service can be found in the market information report

An ODFM specific webinar will be held on Thursday 21st May at 14:00 we will be issuing an interactive guidance document to address FAQs by Friday

Optional Downward Flexibility Management

Optional Downward Flexibility Management webinar

Thursday 21 May 2020 | 14:00

Meeting number (access code): 595 153 860

Meeting password: AasE2V7Wph3

Join meeting

+44-0800-376-8336 UK Toll Free

+44-20-7108-6317 UK London TollGlobal call-in numbers

What have we done | Optional Downward Flexibility Product | Recap

All units area assessed in line with the following principles:

Assess whether the volume is accessible to NGESO due to system constraints

Units restricted due to network constraints are rejected

Assess whether the volume is available during the period of our requirement

Reject all bids which cannot deliver in the settlement periods for which for service is required.

Bids are ranked according to their effective price (£/MW/hr / NGESO forecast load factor).

Assess the ramping times for units and any additional costs incurred from this

Accept bids in effective price order until the requirement is met.

All other bids above the requirement are rejected.

What have we done | BM Flexible Asset trial

Q&APlease note the webinar during week commencing 1st June will be held on Thursday 4th June

Please ask any questions via the Q&A section in Webex and we will try to answer as many as possible now

Please continue to use your normal communication channels with ESO

If you have any questions after the event, please contact the following email address:

box.NC.Customer@nationalgrid.com