Energy

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ESA ANNUAL REPORT 2015

Mr Dariusz KOZAK European Commission Euratom Supply Agency Nuclear Fuel Market Observatory Sector

Luxembourg May 2016

Energy

2015 ESA annual survey conducted among EU nuclear energy utilities and their procurement organisations and it is based on the following data sets: - deliveries of EUP - fuel loaded into reactors - future requirements for natural uranium and separative work - natural uranium deliveries - natural uranium deliveries contracted for future years - separative work units deliveries contracted for future years - level of inventories EU nuclear utilities :

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CEZ EDF & EDF Energy ENBW ENUSA EoNKK EPZ

RWE SLOVELEKT SNN-Nuclearelectrica SYNATOM TVO VATTENFALL

FORTUM IGNALINAKOZLODUY KRSKO Magnox Ltd OKG PAKS

Energy

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U Demand

Energy

2015 demand of U is driven by

- 18 nuclear utilities - 14 EU Member States - 128 EU-based nuclear reactors (shut downs: single unit Grafenrheinfeld NPP in Germany, Oskarshamm Unit 2 in Sweden and Wylfa Unit 1 in the United Kingdom).

- According to EUROSTAT EU-28 gross electricity generation amounted to 876.3 TWh (2014) and nuclear gross electricity generation accounted for 27.5 % of total EU-28 production.

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Energy

FRESH FUEL LOADED INTO EU REACTORS

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2014 2015 % change Fuel Loaded (tLEU) 2 165 2 230 3% Enrichment assay (%) 3.85 3.82

Feed

NatU (tU) 15 355 16 235 5.7%

RepU (tU) 582 303 48% tSWU 11 803 11 851 Tails assays (%) 0.24 0.24

Demand of U

Energy

MOX FUEL LOADED INTO THE EU REACTORS

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2014 2015 % change MOX Fuel Loaded (kg PU)

11 603 10 780 7%

Savings in NatU (tonnes)

1 156 1 050 10%

Savings in SWU (tonnes)

825 742 11%

Demand of U

Energy

Natural uranium included in fuel loaded (or equivalent of NatU) by source in 2015

Source Quantities

(tU) Share (%)

Uranium originated outside the EU 15 835 90.0

Uranium originated in the EU (approximate annual production)

400 2.3

Reprocessed uranium 303 1.7

Savings from MOX 1 050 6.0

Total annual requirements 17 587 100

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Demand of U

10%

Energy

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URANIUM DELIVERED TO THE EU UTILITIES

2014 2015 Change

2015/2014

Uranium delivered (tU) 14 751 15 990 8.4%

Nr of deliveries 125 144

Long-term contracts (%) 96.5 95

Spot contracts (%) 3.5 5

Demand of U

Energy

U contained in fuel loaded and NatU delivered to EU-28 Utilities in tonnes U, 2006-2015

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Demand of U

Energy

EU Future NatU reactor requirements in tonnes of U, 2016-2035

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Demand of U

17 037 18 314

15 598

15 277 NatU gross

requirements 14 079

13 963

16 472

13 720 13 663

NatU net requirements 12 669

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

20 000

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U

Energy

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Demand of U

EU Future SWU reactor requirements in tonnes of U, 2016 - 2035

13 740

15 003

12 758

12 404 SWU gross

requirements 11 495

13 963

16 472

13 720 13 663

SWU net requirements 12 669

10 000

12 000

14 000

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ton

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SW

U

Energy

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Future Demand of U EU and worldwide up to 2030

• EU U demand is approximately stable around 16 750 tU /year up from 2016 to 2025 and 14 600 tU/year from 2026 to 2035

• whereas global demand is increasing rapidly

• EU Share of Global U Demand falls from 28.5% in 2015 to 16% in 2030

2015 2020 2030

EU Demand 17 587 16 823 14 509

Global Demand* 61 660 74 296 90 514

EU Share% 28.5% 22.6% 16%

Sources: ESA Annual Report 2014 and (*) WNA Market Report 2015, Demand reference scenario

Demand of U

Energy

U Supply

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Energy

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Natural uranium deliveries to the EU by origin in 2015

Supply of U

Energy

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Natural uranium deliveries by region, 2006-2015

Supply of U

Energy

Uranium Suppliers to EU Utilities in 2015

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Supply of U

23 suppliers

AREVA NC and AREVA NP (formerly Cogéma)

AREVA Mines

Aron

BHP Billiton (formerly WMC)

Cameco Inc. Corporation USA

CNU

Cominak

DIAMO

Internexco GmbH

Itochuint

KazAtomProm

Macquarie Bank Limited, London Branch

NUKEM GmbH

Paladin Energy Ltd

Rio Tinto Marketing Pte Ltd

Tenex (JSC Techsnabexport)

Traxys North America LLC

TVEL

UEM

UG – Urangesellschaft MbH

Uranium One

Urenco Ltd

USEC - United States Enrichment Corporation

Energy

U Prices

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Energy

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ESA U Price Indices

• ESA Spot U3O8 price: weighted average of U3O8 prices paid by the EU utilities for U delivered under spot contracts in 2015

• ESA Long-term U3O8 price: weighted average of U3O8 prices paid by the EU utilities for U delivered under long-term contracts with deliveries in 2015

• ESA MAC-3 U3O8 price: weighted average of U3O8 prices paid by the EU utilities for U delivered only under newly signed long-term contracts i.e. signed/amended within the last three years (2013-2015) with deliveries in 2015

U Prices

Energy

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• Deliveries database o made under Nat U or EUP purchasing contracts by EU utilities

during the reference year i.e. 2015

• Currency Conversion o converted into EUR

o ECB annual average exchange rates

o ECB EUR/USD (2015) = 1.11

• Unit Conversion o kg U in the chemical form U308, using conventional conversion

factors

• ESA average conversion price o If included, deducted to obtain the net natural uranium price

as U308

o ESA Conversion Price (2015) = €9.36/kgU

o ESA Conversion Price is based on the NatU long term contracts

ESA Prices Calculation Methodology

U Prices

Energy

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ESA Spot U3O8 prices

2014 2015 2015/2014

€/kgU €/kgU €/kgU

74.65 88.73 19%

$/lb U3O8 $/lb U3O8 $/lb U3O8

38.15 37.87 -1%

• Based on prices in spot contracts

• 5% of total deliveries

• 13 deliveries

• Based on fixed prices or index-based formulae

• Deliveries accounted for 846 tonnes of uranium

• Widely distributed: 78-99 €/kgU or 33-42 $/lb U3O8

U Prices

Energy

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ESA Long-term U3O8 price

2014 2015 2015/2014

€/kgU €/kgU €/kgU

78.31 94.30 20%

$/lb U3O8 $/lb U3O8 $/lb U3O8

40.02 40.24 0.5%

• Based on prices in long term contracts

• Contracts signed 7 years earlier on average

• 95% of total deliveries • 121 deliveries • Based on fixed prices or

index-based formulae • Deliveries accounted for

15 144 tonnes of uranium • Data widely scattered • 75% of prices falling into

range: 72-118 €/kgU or 31-50 $/lb U3O8

U Prices

Energy

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2014 2015 2015/2014

€/kgU €/kgU €/kgU

93.68 89.83 5%

$/lb U3O8 $/lb U3O8 $/lb U3O8

47.87 38.33 21%

• 10% of total deliveries • 38 deliveries • Deliveries accounted for

1 666 tonnes of uranium • Based on deliveries

made only under newly signed or newly amended multiannual contracts over the last 3 years

U Prices

ESA MAC-3 U3O8 price

Energy

ESA average price indices, 2006 - 2015

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U Prices

Energy

Enrichment services

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Energy

Enrichment services deliveries

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Enrichment services

2014 2015 Change

2015/2014

tSWU 12 524 12 493 -

EUP tU 2 048 1 989 -2.8%

Uranium feed tU 16 139 16 090 -

AV enrichment

assay (%) 4.09 4.17

AV tails assay

(%) 0.24 0.24

Energy

Supply of enrichment services to EU utilities by supplier

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Enricher

Quantities in Share in Quantities in Share in Change in

quantities

2015/2014 2014 (tSWU) 2014 (%) 2015 (tSWU) 2015 (%)

AREVA +

URENCO (EU) 8 503 68% 7 538 60% -11%

TENEX/TVEL

(Russia) 3 197

26% (includes 7% of

grandfathered)

4 145 36%

(includes 8,5% of

grandfathered)

30%

USEC (USA) 200 2% 200 3% -

Others 624 5% 610 1% -2%

Total 12 524 100% 12 493 100% -

Enrichment services

Energy

Supply of enrichment services to EU utilities by supplier, 2006-2015

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Enrichment services

0

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

12.000

14.000

16.000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EU Russia Other USA

Energy

Security of supply

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Energy

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SECURITY OF SUPPLY

• Inventories • Diversification of supply • Forward thinking

Energy

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EU Uranium inventories, 2010-2015

• cover 3 years of the EU

gross reactor requirements

• ranging from three months

to 6 years on utility level

• the majority of utilities

keep a sufficient quantity

of inventories for at least

one reload

SECURITY OF SUPPLY

Energy

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Nuclear power share of total electricity production in the EU in 2015

SECURITY OF SUPPLY

Energy

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Long-term contractual coverage for U & SWU, 2016-2024

SECURITY OF SUPPLY

Energy

Thank you for your attention Mr Dariusz KOZAK

EURATOM Supply Agency

European Commission

e-mail: Dariusz.Kozak@ec.europa.eu

http:/ / ec.europa.eu/ euratom/ index_en.html

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mailto:Dariusz.Kozak@ec.europa.euhttp://ec.europa.eu/euratom/index_en.html