1

ERTAC

2

PRESENTATION OVERVIEW

1. Process Overview and Timelines2. Inputs3. Algorithm Details4. Results5. Outstanding issues

3

1. PROCESS OVERVIEW AND TIMELINES

a. What is the ERTAC Growth Committee?

b. Criteria for product

c. Committee structure

d. Progress & Timeline

4

WHAT ARE WE TRYING TO ACCOMPLISH ?

Develop Methodology to Create EGU FY Emission Inventories that meets certain criteria: Conservative predictions of unit activity Relies primarily on state knowledge of unit

retirement, fuel switching & controls Can be re-run iteratively to look a variety of

scenarios Transparent Inexpensive Relies on base year activity data Flexible

5

ERTAC EGU GROWTH

Eastern Regional Technical Advisory Committee

Collaboration: NE, Mid-Atlantic, Southern, and Lake Michigan

states Industry Multi-jurisdictional organizations

Why are certain states in yellow? Are they participating in ETAC EGU?

6

SUBCOMMITTEES AND CO-CHAIRS

ERTAC EGU Growth Committee Co-chairs: Laura Mae Crowder, WV DEP Bob Lopez, WI DE Danny Wong, NJ DEP

Four Subcommittees and Leads: Implementation/Mark Janssen, LADCO: Create logic

for software Growth/Bob Lopez, WI & Laura Mae Crowder, WV:

Regional specific growth rates for peak and off peak Data Tracking/Wendy Jacobs, CT: Improve default

data to reflect state specific information Renewables & Conservation Programs/Danny

Wong, NJ & Laura Boothe, NC: Characterize programs not already included in growth factors

7

STATE INVOLVEMENT

Regional lead identified per RPO to coordinate their state review of model and inputs.

EGU representative identified in each state for QA of the input files.

These representatives will also review the output to provide guidance

If Future Year (FY) emission goals are not met given known controls, states will indicate what strategy will be applied to meet the goal.

8

PROGRESS SO FAR ....

Model Development: Methodology created, documentation crafted Preprocessor & projection running on Linux and

Windows (GA, VA, MARAMA, IN, NJ, OTC) Developing postprocessing software

Estimating Growth in Generation: Growth rates and regions defined Updating with current Annual Energy Outlook

(AEO) 2012

9

PROGRESS SO FAR ....

Input File Development: Unit file and future controls file reviewed by

states Cap files are being converted to use CAIR caps Further state input ongoing

Results: Ran through first iterations of the postprocessor Distributed to member states for review

10

ERTAC TIMELINE

September - October, 2012• Initial multi-state test runs• Review output, revise and rerun• Present results to states for comment

November, 2012 • Present to full ERTAC Committee• Present model and results to USEPA

Future tasks• Develop AEO 2012 growth factors• Develop new base year 2011

11

DATA IMPORTATIONa. Inputs

b. Preprocessing

c. Growth Rates

12

ERTAC INPUTS

Starting Point: BY CAMD activity data Gross load hourly data, unit fuel, unit type,

location Units categorized by:

Fuel Type [Boiler Gas, Oil, Simple Cycle, Combined Cycle, Coal]

Region [AEO regions (e.g. MACE, LILC, WOMS)]

States review provides known new units, controls, retirements, fuel switches, etc

EIA AEO growth factors NERC peak growth factors

13

PREPROCESSING FUNCTIONS

Data Edit Checks Unit availability file Controls file Growth rates file BY hourly CAMD data

Removes non-EGUS Determines hourly temporal hierarchy

Based on regional hourly GL Important for load distribution and growth rates

14

PREPROCESSING FUNCTIONS

Assigns hourly usage profile for FY to new units Assesses partial year reporting units Creates unit hierarchies for growth distribution For every hour, calculates load specific values by

region and fuel/unit type Retired generation New unit generation Existing generation

Calculates “non peak” growth rates

“Load specific values” seems vague, what do we mean by that?

Add page numbers

15

GROWTH RATESPeak GR = 1.07Annual GR = 0.95

Transition hours of 200 & 2,000Non Peak GR = 0.9328 (calculated)

16

GROWTH RATES (GR)

Hour specific growth rates allow program to adjust temporal profile of unit based on regional and fuel/unit type hourly growth profiles Resulting FY profile might different from BY

Provides ability to understand effects of peak episodic GR and control programs on air quality

AEO Growth combined with NERC peak growth Peak Growth – First 200 hour in hierarchy Transition growth – 200-2000 hours in hierarchy Non-peak growth – last remaining hours in hierarchy

out to 8760 hours. Combined factor is further adjusted to account

for: Retirements & new units.

17

THE EVOLUTION OF GROWTH RATES FROM AEO2010 ANNUAL TO HOURLY

AEO2010 (by region and fuel)

NERC (by region and fuel)

Peak growth - Applied to first 200 hours in hierarchyTransition growth - Applied to hours between 200 and 2000 in hierarchyNon peak growth - Applied to remianing hours in hierarchy

Final hourly growth

Adjusted to account for retirements and

new units operating in that

hour

18

3. ALGORITHM DETAILSa. Regional modularity

b. Adjusted FY Growth Rates

c. Excess generation pool

d. Generic units

e. New Unit Utilization

f. Spinning Reserve

19REGIONAL MODULARITY Each ERTAC region analyzed independently Reserve analyzed on a regional basis Algorithm determines if capacity has been

met for each hour for the region and fuel/unit type

Use new units

For all ERTAC Regions

For all Fuel/Type Bins

Analyze capacity versus demand

Assign generation

Spinning Reserve

20

ADJUSTED FUTURE YEAR GROWTH RATES (AFYGR), HOUR SPECIFIC

For every region and fuel/unit type, each hour has a variable value for: Total FY Load (Hour Specific GR * BY Load=FY

Gen) Total Retired Generation (RetGen) Total New Unit Generation (NU Gen)

GR for each hour adjusted before application to existing unit hourly BY loads!

AFYGR = (FY Generation – NU Gen) (BY Generation – RetGen)

21

EXCESS GENERATION POOL

If unit growth exceeds capacity Unit is limited to capacity Demand beyond capacity added to the excess

generation pool for that hour/region/ fuel/unit type bin

The pool is distributed to other units in unit allocation hierarchy order Units receive power up to optimal threshold or

max capacity in two distribution loops Power distribution ceases when pool is depleted

or all units are at capacity (generic unit must be created to meet demand)

22

NEW GENERIC UNITS Added to meet demand Utilization determined on a fuel/unit type basis,

similar to new state supplied units Receive unmet demand Size/location of generic units adjustable FY temporal profile assigned by region and

fuel/unit type If a generic unit is added, the allocation

hierarchy is recalculated and the loop begins at the first hour

First/next hour in the hierarchy

Does capacity meet demand?

Add generic unit

Reallocate unit order

Begin at first hour in the hierarchy

Y

N

23

NEW UNIT UTILIZATION New units receive generation from the excess

generation pool Annual power production limited by default or

state input Temporal profile based on similar unit (mimic) —

program allows user to change the “mimic” unit New units (generic and state supplied) are

high in utilization relative to other similar units because assumed to be: Very efficient Very clean

Variables assigned to region and fuel/unit type characteristics are adjustable

24

SPINNING RESERVE CHECK

Following assignment of generation Check if reserve capacity is available for

each hour in each region If in any hour there is not reserve capacity

equal 100% of the capacity of the largest unit operating of any fuel type, a flag is raised

Determine reserve capacity needs for that hour

Is unused capacity > reserve capacity ?

Y

N Alert: More capacity needed

First/next hour

25

RESULTSa. Output

b. Examples

c. Runtime

26

OUTPUT/RESULTS

Future year hourly activity Heat input (mmbtu) Gross load (MW) SO2 emissions (lbs) NOx emissions (lbs)

File includes 8,760 hours for each: Existing unit that is not retired New state supplied unit New generic unit created by the code

Summary files Post-projection processing: graphs, more

summaries, etc

27

OUTPUT FROM ERTAC EGU V1

Unit level Overall output

28EXAMPLE: COAL FIRED EXISTING UNIT, 800 MWANNUAL GR=1.018, PEAK GR=1.056, NONPEAK GR=1.012

29EXAMPLE: COAL FIRED EXISTING UNIT, 800 MW (ZOOM IN VIEW)ANNUAL GR=1.018, PEAK GR=1.056, NONPEAK GR=1.012

Something wrong with the X axis

30EXAMPLE: COAL FIRED EXISTING UNIT, 800 MW – SO2 CONTROLANNUAL GR=1.018, PEAK GR=1.056, NONPEAK GR=1.012

31EXAMPLE: COMBINED CYCLE NEW UNIT, 300 MWANNUAL GR= 0.904, PEAK GR=1.2, NONPEAK GR=0.901

32EXAMPLE: SIMPLE CYCLE EXISTING UNIT, 53 MWANNUAL GR=1.39, PEAK GR=1.549, NONPEAK GR=1.377

33POST-PROJECTION PROCESSING GRAPHICAL OUTPUT – PAGE 1 EXAMPLE

34POST-PROJECTION PROCESSING GRAPHICAL OUTPUT – PAGE 2 EXAMPLE

35

VER. 1 SUMMARY RESULTS – ALL REGIONS

Heat Input

SO2 Emissions

NOX Emissions

Generation

36

IN SUMMARY

The model has been built Inputs are being refined Output has been generated Work is needed to evaluate output

Partial Year Reporters Generic units

New growth factors based on AEO 2012 are needed

Scenarios can be built to evaluate policy