ERM: Enterprise Risk Management
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© Stanhope by Hufton + Crow ERM: Enterprise Risk Management David N. Ingram, CERA, FRM, PRM Senior Vice President, Willis Re
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ERM: Enterprise Risk Management. David N. Ingram, CERA, FRM, PRM Senior Vice President, Willis Re. The agenda. Goal: a better understanding of the following: The objectives and benefits of ERM Some fundamental issues in measuring risk Choosing ERM Objectives - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of ERM: Enterprise Risk Management
© Stanhope by Hufton + Crow
ERM: Enterprise Risk ManagementDavid N. Ingram, CERA, FRM, PRM
Senior Vice President, Willis Re
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The agendaGoal: a better understanding of the following:
The objectives and benefits of ERM
Some fundamental issues in measuring risk
Choosing ERM Objectives
How to get started on implementing Enterprise Loss Controlling
Building a Full ERM Program
Best practices in ERM
Status of ERM Implementation
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1 ERM: goals & benefits
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ERM: new name, old stuff?“ERM is just a fancy name for what my colleagues and I here at ABC Insurance do and have been doing every day for thirty years.”
“We know all about ERM. Our trained professionals check every policy we write and every asset we buy.”
“Actuaries don’t need training in ERM. Risk is what our profession is all about. We are already the experts on risk.”
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Advice from my first bossClients pay insurers to assume some of their risk
The key to an insurer’s success is making sure it is adequately paid for doing so
Be sure to maintain the right balance between risk and return.
Don’t take on risk if you are not adequately paid to do so. Gladly take on risk if the price is right.
It’s all about risk and return (profit)
(Agree?)
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Key questions about profitHow much profit did our firm make last year?
We ask similar questions about the components of profit: premiums, losses, expenses, and the like
We calculate and report by month and quarter also
Was that more or less than a year/quarter/month ago?
Were our profits in a specific line of business (or state or county) more or less than our profits in another line of business (or state or county)?
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Questions about profitAt the very least, we expect a firm to know the following:
Its overall profits
Its change in profit over time
Its difference in profit across different lines of business, territories, or functions (e.g., underwriting and investment)
If it doesn’t know these things, we would seriously doubt whether the firm is well-managed. (Agree? Firms know?)
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It’s hard to manage profit without numbersNumbers focus management attention (a scarce resource) on problems and opportunities
Numbers provide feedback on actions taken.
Are we making or losing money? Why?
Are we more or less profitable than last year? Why?
Where are we especially profitable and especially unprofitable?
What actions can/should we take to improve our overall profitability?
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My question to my bossSo where are the risk numbers?
I’ve seen numerous reports, spreadsheets, meetings, etc. that analyze our profits
Where are the reports, spreadsheets, meetings, etc. that analyze our risks?
How can you manage risk without risk numbers!
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Questions about riskShouldn’t we expect a firm to know the following:
Its overall risk
Its change in risk over time
Its difference in risk across different lines of business, territories, or functions (e.g., underwriting and investment)
If it doesn’t know these things, shouldn’t we seriously doubt whether the firm is well-managed. (Agree?)
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It’s hard to manage risk without numbersNumbers focus management attention (a scarce resource) on problems and opportunities
Numbers provide feedback on actions taken.
Are we taking too much or too little risk? Why?
Are we taking more or less risk than last year? Why?
Where are we taking little risk and where excessive risk?
What actions can/should we take to improve our overall risk?
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Results of managing risk without numbersWe focus far more on return than on risk
We can’t compare different risks
And we can’t compare the same risk over time
Therefore we can’t really manage risk, since we lack feedback
And we don’t know the risks on which we should focus scarce managerial attention
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Managing without numbersLack of measurement also means that we become very susceptible to potentially distorted perceptions of risk
We also become complacent, and readily attribute high profits (from low losses) to skill rather than luck
Do we need to revisit the earlier quotes? “We already do ERM” “We know our risks (especially overall)” “We are already the experts on risk”
So where are the reports etc. on risk? Agree? Does your firm have them?
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What is ERM?It is an evolving body of knowledge – concepts, methods, and techniques –. . .
. . . that enables a firm to understand, measure, and manage its overall risk . . . (objectives)
. . . so as to maximize the firm’s value to shareholders and policyholders. (benefits)
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2 Measuring risk
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Measuring risk: How much risk are we taking?To answer this question we need to specify and implement a way of describing and comparing probability distributions of outcomes; we need a risk measure
Conceptually, there has been more emphasis on inventing new risk measures than in comparing or using existing ones in a practical way.
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Measuring risk: How much risk are we taking?Practically, the need is for a common risk vocabulary across varied groups:
Underwriters: focus on pricing risk Actuaries: focus on reserve risk Portfolio Managers: focus on investment risk Various: focus on credit risk
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How to measure risk: quizThe table at right shows four alternatives, A through D, and the payoffs for each, with their associated probabilities.
All four alternatives have the same Expected Value (EV): 100
A positive number means that you receive this amount.
A negative number means that you pay or lose this amount.
Which alternative is the most risky? (Vote)
Which is the least risky? (Vote)
Probability
50% 49% 1% EV
A 75 75 2575 100
B -20 220 220 100
C 249 -50 0 100
D 104 100 -100 100
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How to measure riskAlternative A has the highest standard deviation
But this is due to the high upside potential of this alternative. Is that really relevant?
Does giving you a lottery ticket increase your risk?
Isn’t risk better defined as a potential for loss?
Probability
50% 49% 1% EV
A 75 75 2575 100
B -20 220 220 100
C 249 -50 0 100
D 104 100 -100 100
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How to measure riskProbability
50% 49% 1% EV
A 75 75 2575 100
B -20 220 220 100
C 249 -50 0 100
D 104 100 -100 100
Alternative B has the highest probability of loss.
But the loss isn’t very big.
Shouldn’t the magnitude of the loss also be taken into account?
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How to measure riskProbability
50% 49% 1% EV
A 75 75 2575 100
B -20 220 220 100
C 249 -50 0 100
D 104 100 -100 100
Alternative C has the highest expected loss, given that a loss occurs: -50 times 0.49 = -24.5
That is the breakeven cost of buying insurance against loss.
That is also the cost of a put option with a strike price of zero.
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How to measure riskProbability
50% 49% 1% EV
A 75 75 2575 100
B -20 220 220 100
C 249 -50 0 100
D 104 100 -100 100
Alternative D has the highest loss.
It has the worst case loss among the outcomes shown
This is the same as the highest 1% Value at Risk (VaR)
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A key concept in the evolution of ERM: VaR1989: Dennis Weatherstone, CEO of J. P. Morgan, asks for a report, to be delivered to him daily at 4:15 pm, that answers the following question:
How much could we lose if tomorrow turns out to be a relatively bad day?
Why 4:15? Because if the number was larger than he was comfortable with, there was still time to change it.
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Why this was a great questionIt is short and clear. Everyone can understand it.
It provides an alternative to standard deviation as a risk measure
It defines risk as the potential for loss
It focuses on a specific time horizon
It focuses on the firm as a whole (the “enterprise”) and not on numerous individual trading desks
other reports focused on trading desks (where is our risk?)
Its objective was managing risk, not just measuring it (4:15)
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What is a “relatively bad day”?Analogy to weather: how cold could it get on a relatively cold day?
We could answer by specifying a percentile: “95% of the time (days) the temperature stays above zero”
Value at Risk (VaR): “95% of the time our losses will be less than $125 million”
$125 million is therefore the 95% VaR
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Benefits of VaRWe can track risk over time: has it changed? Why?
We can compare different risks to one another
We can determine a reward to risk ratio for different risks
Value of measuring risk in dollars, as in VaR
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Other risk measuresNumerous alternatives to VaR have been created
Academics have designed criteria that an ideal risk measure should satisfy
VaR doesn’t meet one of these requirements
But VaR is nonetheless widely used because it is readily understandable and transparent
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Risk measurement issuesRisk measurement is necessarily imprecise
But so is profit measurement
Risk measures often focus on rare events, about which relevant data is scarce -- by definition!
Example: firms often purchase reinsurance to protect against events expected to occur once in every 100 to 250 years. But we don’t have that many years of relevant data!
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Risk measurement issuesNot all risks need to be quantified
Financial risks are those whose potential damange can be reduced by having additional capital or reinsurance.
They can typically be quantified.
Non-financial risks pose potential damages that are best addressed by the use of appropriate controls. They are typically difficult to quantify.
Reputational risk
Criminal activity
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Risk measurement issues
The rarity of events can change
climate change affects extreme hurricanes
legal changes affect Workers Comp or D&O losses
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Risk measurement issuesERM is not a contest to identify the largest number of risks
The need is to focus on the most important risks
The most important quantifiable financial risks at many property-casualty firms:
Underwriting risk
Adverse development in loss reserves
Equity (stock market) risk
Reinsurance recoverable default risk
Fixed income default risk
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Risk measurement issuesAggregation – combining different risks to obtain overall risk – is complex if risks are interdependent (correlated)
A common example: underwriting risk and reserve risk
Interdependence can increase in times of financial stress
Example: bond defaults and stock returns
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Effective Risk MeasurementRelevance
• Relationship to financial results reporting
Comprehensiveness
• All types of risks
• All significant aspects of those risks
Responsiveness
• Reflecting changes in levels of risks over reporting period
Practicality
• Schedule comparable to financial results reports
• Reasonable cost to produce
• Ability to project alternatives over planning period
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3. Choosing ERM Objectives
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ERM ObjectivesLink with strategy
High
Low
Medium
Risk control Balance sheet protection
Risk/return optimization
Value creation
Compliance
Loss minimization
Risk management
Risk measurement
Strategic integration
Value optimization
Adapted from Standard & Poor’s
Loss Controlling
Risk Trading
Risk Steering
Objective of ERM
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ERM Objectives Loss controlling
limit exposures and therefore losses
ERM adds aggregate approach to risk tolerance
Risk trading
getting paid for risks taken
ERM adds consistent approach to risk margins
Risk steering
strategic choices to improve value
ERM adds risk vs. reward point of view
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4 Getting started on Enterprise Loss Controlling
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Key Risks & Controls Process Self Assessment
Five Steps
Risk Identification
Risk Assessment
Risk Control Assessment
Heat Map Development
Risk Plan
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Risk Identification
Which are your Risks?
A List of Risks Facing Insurers (compiled by Dave Babbel, Wharton School)
CORPORATE LIABILITY SIDE Capital Utilization Pricing Expense Control, Overhead Burden Pricing Adequacy Regulatory Compliance Expense Margin Ethics & Employee Behavior Unrealistic Competition Accountability Policy Lapses Meritocracy Long Tail of Liabilities Quality of Management Inflation Risk Quality of Training Actuarial Quality of Workforce, Service Mortality Management Succession Morbidity Recruitment/Retention Longevity Industry Reputation Subsidized Early Retirement Industry Concentration Disintermediation Company Reputation Secular Trend Teamwork Over Turf Utilization of Covenants Coping With Change Antiselection Technological Breakdown Natural Catastrophe Nontraditional Ventures Moral Hazard Guaranty Fund Assessments Fraudulent Information Tax Law Changes Fraudulent Claims Uninsured Pure Firm Losses Morale Hazard Information Systems Problems Product Development Legal Risk Product Design Financial Disclosure Risk Product Appeal Consumer Misunderstandings
ASSET SIDE Distribution Credit Cost of Distribution Public Bonds Agent Recruitment Private Placements Agent Productivity Mortgages Agent Retention Collateral Risk Policy Churning Counterparty Risk Regulatory Environment Reinsurer Insolvency Compliance Systematic Risks: Interest Rate Risk Loss of Tax Benefits Call Risk - Callable Bonds Health Care Reform Prepayment Risk - MBS & CMO Other Regulatory Changes Duration, Convexity, Drift Financial Reporting Change in Interest Volatility Surplus Strain Yield Curve Shape, Twist GAAP for Mutuals Systematic Risks: Other FAS 115 Equity Market Risk Unsound Reporting Basis Risk Mark-to-Market Risk Inflation Risk Reputation Liquidity Ethics & Compliance Cash Mismatch Quality of Service Disintermediation Corporate Image Run on the "Bank" Market Maturity Extension Uncontrolled Growth Mortgage Refinancing Untested Markets Loss of Equity Value Market Saturation Real Estate Bank Competition Stocks Globalization Subsidiaries Liability Insurance Derivatives Political & Currency Diversification Foreign Exchange Risk of Claims Asset Allocation Profits Repatriation Industry and Geographical Risk Political Risk Unstable Covariances Risk Terrorism
Political & Currency SURPLUS International Investments Capital Adequacy Foreign Exchange Risk Funding Risk Terrorism
CreditRisk
InsuranceRisk
MarketRisk
LiquidityRisk
GroupRisk
OperationalRisk
ERM
Too Broad
Too
Narro
w
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Risk Assessment
How Significant are your risks?
Subjective Assessment
Consensus view
Frequency / Severity
Rank largest
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Risk Prioritization
Level 1 – For Board & Top Management
Level 2 – For Middle Management
Level 3 – For Supervisors
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Risk Prioritization Level 1 Risks
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
Actionable
Top Management Focus
Take to Board
Take to AM Best
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Risk Control AssessmentFor Most Significant Risks
How effective are your existing control processes?
For the best controlled risks, how much risk is left after the control process? Are they still significant?
Subjective Assessment
Not as easy to reach consensus
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Heat Map DevelopmentRisk Control Self Assessment
Risk & Control Heat Map
Large
Medium
SmallMore Effective Control
Less Effective Control
Low Priority
Moderate Priority
High Priority
Ris
k S
ign
ific
ance
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Risk Control PlanChoose High Priority Risks (In the Red) to address this year
Plan will be to:
Prepare detailed documentation of existing control processes
Research and identify best practice control processes
Compare existing to best practice
Choose improvements to make
Implement improvements
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5. Building a Full ERM Program
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Key “First Step” Issues Your audience
Key risks
Aspects of risk
Risk Appetite
Developing best practices
Communicating ERM
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Your Audience CEO
Board of Directors
Public disclosures
Analyst calls
Rating agencies
General management
Customers
Vendors, partners, counterparties
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Know your Audience For each audience identify:
risk appetite types of risks quantum of risk (compared to capacity)
needs and expectations their perspective of what is inside vs. outside of ERM to what extent do they expect management to be
Desirability of minimal/maximal satisfaction goals? what is considered success?
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Key Risks Change – not on most lists, but
most important
Insurance – the most obvious
Investment – the most recent
Operational – “people” risks
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ChangesPeople
Business Environment
M&A
New Activity
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Managing Risk From Changes1. How does risk profile change?
Does the change make the firm more risky or less?
What are your options for dealing with that?
What are you going to do?
2. Is your Risk Management still adequate after the change?
Can you manage any new risks?
Do you have the right people, structure, accountability & reporting?
What are you going to do?
3. Are you executing your change process & change risk management plan effectively?
Monitoring, feedback and adjusting the plan.
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Aspects of RiskType A - Short term volatility of cash flows in 1 year
Type B - Short term tail risk of cash flows in 1 year
Type C - Uncertainty risk (also known as parameter risk)
Type D - Inexperience risk relative to full multiple market cycles
Type E - Correlation to a top 10 risk
Type F - Market value volatility in 1 year
Type G - Execution risk regarding difficulty of controlling operational losses
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Aspects of RiskType H - Long term volatility of cash flows over 5 or more years
Type J - Long term tail risk of cash flows over 5 years or more
Type K - Pricing risk (cycle risk)
Type L - Market liquidity risk
Type M - Instability risk regarding the degree that the risk parameters are stable
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Impact of Multiple Risk Aspects There is a danger that any aspect of Risk that you ignore
will accumulate in your portfolio.
i.e. CDS risk management. ignored liquidity risk
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Risk AppetiteUnderstanding Risk Capacity (Tolerance) and
Risk Appetite (How much of Capacity will be used)
Discussions of:
Peer Comparisons, RBC, Rating Agency Views, Historical Loss Scenarios, Future Loss Scenarios, Economic Capital, Franchise Value, Effective Risk Appetite, Risk Preferences , earnings volatility, ruin
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Risk Appetite Key Questions:1. What have been the most successful decisions over the past 5 – 10 years?
2. What adverse experience was avoided due to management/board actions and decisions over the past 5 – 10 years?
3. What is the worst experience over the past 20 years?
4. What is the worst experience that a peer company have in the past 20 years?
5. What are the most significant risks at the current time?
6. Where does the company expect to be in relation to peers 5 or 10 years in the future?
7. What are the financial measures that are the most important to management and board?
8. Based upon those financial measures, how would management and board define a great year, a good year, a fair year, a poor year, a terrible year and a disastrous year?
9. What are the sorts of business opportunities that company would never consider doing? would like to be doing more of? might do if the returns look to be very good?
10. How would company see itself performing in a year when experience for the risks taken by company are at a worst in 20 year level?
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Types of Risk Appetite Statements
Ratings Based – Insurer will not take risks that will endanger their rating from AM Best.
Risk Based Capital Based – Insurer will maintain an RBC Ratio of at least xxx%
Event Based – Insurer will maintain capital to support a loss at least as large as experienced from Hurricane Katrina along with an investment loss like 2001.
Probability Based – Insurer will maintain capital so that the probability of a loss exceeding capital is no more than 3 in 10,000 (AA S&P level)
Value Based – Insurer will maintain a level of capital the produces the best franchise value for the firm with the risks taken
Earnings Based – Insurer will not take any risks that could result in the loss of earnings of more one quarter’s average earnings over the past 5 years.
Capital Based – Insurer will not take risks that will produce a loss of more than 25% of capital at the 1/250 probability level.
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20 ERM Best Practices Risk identification
Risk language
Risk Measurement
ERM policies and standards
Risk organization
Risk limits
Risk management culture
Risk learning
Measurement validation
Risk diagnosis
Stress testing
Risk capital
Risk reporting
Risk disclosure
Risk management governance
Risk optimization
Risk-adjusted performance measurement
Risk-adjusted compensation
Action orientation
Change risk
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ERM Fundamentals1. Risk Identification: Systematic identification of principal risks
Identify and classify risks to which the firm is exposed and understand the important characteristics of the key risks
2. Risk Language: Explicit firm-wide words for risk
A risk definition that can be applied to all exposures, that helps to clarify the range of size of potential loss that is of concern to management and that identifies the likelihood range of potential losses that is of concern. Common definitions of the usual terms used to describe risk management roles and activities.
3. Risk Measurement: What gets measured gets managed
Includes: Gathering data, risk models, multiple views of risk and standards for data and models.
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ERM Fundamentals4. Policies and Standards: Clear and comprehensive documentation
Clearly document the firm's policies and standards regarding how risks will be taken and how and when the firm will look to offset, transfer or retain risks. Definitions of risk-taking authorities; definitions of risks to be always avoided; underlying approach to risk management; measurement of risk; validation of risk models; approach to best practice standards.
5. Risk Organization: Roles & responsibilities Coordination of ERM through: High-level risk committees; risk
owners; Chief Risk Officer; corporate risk department; business unit management; business unit staff; internal audit. Assignment of responsibility, authority and expectations.
6. Risk Limits: Set, track, enforce Comprehensively clarifying expectations and limits regarding
authority, concentration, size, quality; a distribution of risk targets and limits, as well as plans for resolution of limit breaches and consequences of those breaches.
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ERM Fundamentals7. Risk Management Culture: ERM & the staff
ERM can be much more effective if there is risk awareness throughout the firm. This is accomplished via a multi-stage training program, targeting universal understanding of how the firm is addressing risk management best practices.
8. Risk Learning: Commitment to constant improvement
A learning and improvement environment that encourages staff to make improvements to company practices based on unfavorable and favorable experiences with risk management and losses, both within the firm and from outside the firm.
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Self Assessment Exercise
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Self Assessment Exercise List of existing good ERM
practices – In ERM language
List of practices that may need improvement or development
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Creating an ERM Plan
OBJECTIVES NEEDS
IMPROVEMENTERMPLAN
RESO
URCE
S
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Communicating ERM
ERMPLAN
CEOBoard of DirectorsPublic DisclosuresAnalyst CallsRating AgenciesGeneral ManagementCustomersVendors, Partners, Counterparties
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Communicating ERM ResultsRisk dashboard
Reports
Tables, charts, graphs
Stories
Loss diagnostics
Limit breaches
Model improvements
Risk profile
CEOBoard of DirectorsPublic disclosuresAnalyst callsRating agenciesGeneral managementCustomersVendors, partners, counterparties
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6. Status of ERM Implementation
Benefits of Risk Management(James Lam)1. Market Value Improvement
– Due to decreased volatility
2. Early Warning of Risks
– Risk management replaces
Crisis Management
3. Reduction of Losses
4. Rating Agency Capital Relief
5. Risk Transfer Rationalization
– Reinsurance cost/benefit
6. Corporate Insurance Savings
Potential Benefits of Effective Risk Management
Reduction in management
time spent “fire-fighting”
Increased likelihood of
change initiatives being achieved.
Potential Benefits
(ICA)
More focus internally on
doing the right things properly.
Lower cost of capital.Better basis for
strategy setting.
Competitive advantage.
Fewer sudden shocks and unwelcome surprises.
Better able to take advantage
of new business opportunities.
Higher share price
Moody’s View of Risk Management
Environment More Risky
More complex products
Higher regulatory scrutiny
Reinsurers leaving markets
Insurers Response
Stress Testing
Risk Management Committee/CRO
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What is the difference between Risk Management and ERM?
An ERM Program comprehensively applies Risk Management…
across ALL of the significant risks of the Enterprise
Consistently across the risks
Consistently with the fundamental objectives of the enterprise
Standard & Poor's
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Full Benefits of an ERM Program
Once a firm’s enterprise wide risks are identified and objectives are set, an ERM Program should…
Develop and maintain systems to periodically measure the capital needed to support the retained risks of the company
Reflect the risk capital in:
• strategic decision making,
• product design and pricing,
• strategic and tactical investment selection
• financial performance evaluation
The product of a fully-realized ERM Program is the optimization of enterprise risk adjusted return
Standard & Poor's
Benefits of Integrated Risk Management Strategy
Avoid “land mines” and other surprises
Improve Stability & Quality of Earnings
Enhance growth and shareholder return
By more knowledgeably exploiting risk opportunities
Identify specific opportunities such as natural synergies & risk arbitrage
Reassure stakeholders that the business is well managed
Life Office Management Association (USA)
Management – Level 1 Planning
Planning Projection
Management – Level 2 Scenario Testing
Management – Level 3 Scenario Analysis
Planning Projection
Average Scenario
Confidence Interval
Management – Level 4 Risk Management
Planning Projection
Average Scenario
Confidence Interval
ERM Benefits & Uses
Insurance = Risk Taking
Risk Management = Management
for Insurance Companies
Risk Management => systematic risk selection
as more insurance companies adopt risk management they will select the better risks
companies without RM will not know
ERM Benefits & Uses
Communicating with Regulators & Rating Agencies
Risk Management can provide language for dialogue with RA
Communicating with Board
Markets become more volatile
as more financial institutions use Risk Management
Solvency 2 & ERM
Pillar 2
Article 43 requires firms to have an effective risk management system.
Requires firms to consider all risks
Risk management system to be fully integrated into the organisation
GFC & ERM
“Progress has been made in strengthening . . . Risk Management”
Leaders' Statement from G20 Summit, 2009
© Stanhope by Hufton + Crow
Risk Management & the Board of DirectorsNine Themes For Interaction with Management
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Risk Management & The Board1. An advance agreement with management regarding:
• the quantity and quality of risks that the firm is expected to take in the coming year and
• how much variability management expects there to be in what actually happens.
This will naturally lead to a discussion of how far away from plan things can get before another discussion between management and the board is in order.
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Risk Management & the Board2. Regular updates in the quantity and quality of risks that are actually
being taken by the firm as well as the quantity and quality of risks retained.
One of the major issues that banks have faced in the current crisis is that some of their risk offset programs were not as effective as management had expected and very large gross risk positions that were thought to be transferred or offset did become the responsibility of the bank when the losses started to occur.
Board reporting had focused only on net retained risks which put the board outside the discussions of how much gross risk was acceptable.
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Risk Management & The Board3. Information about the changes in the environment that
might indicate that certain risks might be increasing.
This information would be in the form of trending of key risk indicators
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Risk Management & The Board4. Information about the continuous changes that management is
making to the plans in response to the changing environment as they relate to the quantity and quality of risk.
Too often management appropriately changes course and defers mentioning that to the board. The lack of mention of “course corrections” should be seen as a sign of potential trouble by the board.
Management and the board should agree how far things can drift from plan before management is expected to both do something different and mention that to the board.
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Risk Management & The Board5. An advance discussion of losses.
Management and the board must recognize that the word “risk” is short for “risk of loss”.
It is uncommon to have these advance discussions.
When firms experiences losses, there is often a period of uncertainty during which no one knows whether this loss exceeds the tolerance of the board and how the board might react.
While it does not make sense to expect there to be an exact list of expected reactions, there is much to be gained by having this discussion before a real loss occurs.
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Risk Management & The Board6. Appointing members of top management to be individually assigned
personal responsibility for each of the major risks and risk/loss aversion practices of the firm
a risk management best practice that is internationally recognized.
A regular update by the top management individuals that have been given these responsibilities, confirming that they have sufficient resources, both in quantity and quality, to achieve the objectives for loss limitation and reporting on the status of projects to improve capabilities.
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Risk Management & The Board7. A periodic discussion of the unusual and adverse events that might unpredictably impact on the firm and the ways in which management expects to prepare for such events.
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Risk Management & The Board8. When a major corporate strategic initiative comes to the board for
notice or approval, discussion of the ways that this action changes the risk of the firm. The board should know whether a headline action further
concentrates the risks of a firm or whether is broadens the risk exposures.
If there are additional concentrations of risks, then it would be important to hear more about the additional diligence to the existing loss aversion actions.
If it is a diversifying risk, then the board should be hearing about the new risk/loss aversion actions that are contemplated.
Too often, management diversifies into a new risk and thinks that loss aversion is unnecessary because of diversification. The term for that type of risk management decision is de_WORSE_ification. For new risks, risk/loss aversion plans are particularly needed because of management’s lower experience wit the new risk.
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Risk Management & The Board9. When management discusses the major strategies of
the firm with the board discussions should include recognition of the
implications of the strategic plans on the firm's risks and the risk/loss aversion plans.
The board should be sure that the plans for growth of the firm reach for faster growth of expected profits than the rate of growth of risks.
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Thank You
David N Ingram, CERA, FRM, PRM
Willis Re, New York, USA
+1 212 915 8039
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ERM Learnings from the School of Very Hard Knocks
David Ingram, CERA, FRM, PRM
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Who Got the Knocks?Knocked Down
HSBC
IKB
NIBC
UBS
Goldman Sachs
JP Morgan
Rating Agencies
Investors
Taxpayers
Knocked Out
Bear Stearns
Countrywide, New Century
SachsenLBLehman Brothers
Merrill Lynch
Northern Rock
Wachovia
Freddie Mac
Fannie Mae
AIG
Washington Mutual
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PRELUDE - Where to Start?June 2003: Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan lowers federal reserve’s key interest rate to 1%, the lowest in 45 years.
2004-2005: Arizona, California, Florida, Hawaii, and Nevada record housing price increases in excess of 25% per year.
2005: Booming housing market halts abruptly in many parts of the U.S. in late summer.
2006: Prices are flat, home sales fall, resulting in inventory buildup. U.S. Home Construction Index is down over 40% as of mid-August 2006 compared to a year earlier.
May 5: In possibly the first casualty of the looming subprime crisis, Washington based Merit Financial Inc. files for bankruptcy and closes its doors, firing all but 80 of its 410 employees, kept to wind down the business. Chief financial officer, Ryan Kidd, said that Merit’s marketplace had declined about 40% and sales were not bringing in enough revenue to support the overhead of running the company.
2007: Home sales continue to fall. The plunge in existing-home sales is the steepest since 1989. In Q1/2007, S&P/Case-Shiller house price index records first year-over-year decline in nationwide house prices since 1991. The subprime mortgage industry collapses, and a surge of foreclosure activity (twice as bad as 2006) and rising interest rates threaten to depress prices further as problems in the subprime markets spread to the near-prime and prime mortgage markets. The U.S. Treasury secretary calls the bursting housing bubble "the most significant risk to our economy."
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2007February 8 – HSBC: Europe's biggest bank, HSBC Holdings, blames soured US subprime loans for its first-ever profit warning in February. On September 21, it announces the closure of its US subprime unit, Decision One Mortgage, and records an impairment charge of about $880 million.
April 2 – New Century: The US subprime lender files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the biggest collapse of a mortgage lender in this crisis.
July – IKB & SachsenLB: Two banks in Germany, IKB and state bank SachsenLB, suffer exposure by investing in the US subprime market. The German banking industry bails out IKB, but SachsenLB almost goes under and is quickly sold to state-backed Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg (LBBW).
August 9 – BNP Paribas: The French bank bars investors from redeeming cash in $2.2 billion worth of funds, telling the markets it is unable to calculate the value of the three funds due to turmoil in the subprime market.
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2007August 9 – NIBC: The Dutch merchant bank discloses 137 million Euros ($189 million) of losses on US asset-backed securities in the first half, and shelves plans for an initial public offering indefinitely.
September 13 – Northern Rock: The British mortgage lender experiences a bank run following a credit crunch sparked by the subprime crisis. The Bank of England steps in to rescue it.
September 17: Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said "we had a bubble in housing" and warns of "large double digit declines" in home values "larger than most people expect."
September 18: The Fed lowers interest rates by half a point (0.5%) in an attempt to limit damage to the economy from the housing and credit crises.
October 1 – Credit Suisse: The bank says its results will be "adversely impacted" by the market turmoil, but it will remain profitable in the third quarter of 2007.
October 15 – Citigroup: The largest US bank by market value says third-quarter profit fell 57 percent due to losses, with net income down to $2.38 billion from $5.51 billion a year earlier.
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2007October 15–17: A consortium of U.S. banks backed by the U.S. government announced a "super fund" of $100 billion to purchase mortgage-backed securities whose mark-to-market value plummeted in the subprime collapse. Both Fed chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson said "the housing decline is still unfolding and I view it as the most significant risk to our economy. … The longer housing prices remain stagnant or fall, the greater the penalty to our future economic growth."
October 19 – Wachovia: The fourth-largest US bank posts a 10 percent decline in third-quarter profit, to $1.69 billion from $1.88 billion a year earlier, having suffered $1.3 billion of writedowns resulting from credit market turmoil.
October 24 – Merrill Lynch: The financial services giant stuns Wall Street by reporting the biggest quarterly loss in its history after writing down $8.4 billion, mostly from bad investments related to risky subprime mortgages.
October 26 – Countrywide: US mortgage lender Countrywide Financial Corp. posts a $1.2 billion third-quarter loss after writing down $1 billion in subprime-lending losses.
October 29 – Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc.: Japan's largest bank says it will write down the value of subprime related investments by as much as 30 billion yen ($260 million) – six times more than previously announced.
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2007October 30 – UBS: Swiss bank UBS reports a third-quarter pretax loss of 726 million Swiss francs ($624.8 million) after it took a charge of 4.2 billion francs on subprime-related losses in its fixed income investments.
November 1: Federal Reserve injects $41B into the money supply for banks to borrow at a low rate. The largest single expansion by the Fed since $50.35B on September 19, 2001.
November 4 – Citigroup: May write off $8 to $11 billion of subprime mortgage losses, on top of a $6.5 billion write-down in its third quarter.
November 8 – Merrill Lynch: Its exposure to CDOs is now $15.82 billion or about $600 million more than what the company revealed in its third-quarter earnings release on October 24. The figure is larger because a hedge against potential loss was terminated recently after a dispute with a counterparty, which Merrill declined to name.
November 13 – Bank of America: Writes off $3 billion in subprime losses.
November 14 – HSBC: Raised its subprime bad debt provision by $1.4 billion (£670 million) to $3.4 billion.
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2007November 15 – Barclays: Subprime write-downs at Barclays’ capital investment bank arm now total £1.3 billion, taking into account a £500 million write-down in the third quarter.
November 15: FASB Statement no. 157 becomes effective for annual statements for fiscal years beginning after Nov. 15, 2007, and for interim reports prepared in that initial fiscal year.
16 November - Goldman Sachs forecasts sub-prime losses for entire financial sector at $400bn (£200bn). Northern Rock's boss resigns Nationwide warns of no UK house price growth in 2008
19 November - Northern Rock says bids to buy bank are "below current market value." Swiss Re expects to lose $1bn on insurance a client took out against any fall in the value of its mortgage debt.
20 November - US mortgage guarantor Freddie Mac sets aside $1.2bn to cover bad loans and reports a $2bn loss. The US Federal Reserve cuts its 2008 growth forecast citing credit and housing market woes. UK buy-to-let mortgage lender Paragon sees its shares fall nearly 40% after revealing funding difficulties. Construction of new US homes in October remains sharply lower than a year earlier, figures show.
22 November - UK lender Kensington Mortgages withdraws its entire range of sub-prime mortgages because of market conditions. The Nationwide, the UK's largest building society, benefits from being seen as a haven from troubled banks.
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2007
December 6: President Bush announced a plan to voluntarily and temporarily freeze the mortgages of a limited number of mortgage debtors holding adjustable rate mortgages (ARM). He also ask Members Of Congress to: 1. pass legislation to modernize the FHA. 2. temporarily reform the tax code to help homeowners refinance during this time of housing market stress. 3. pass funding to support mortgage counseling. 4. pass legislation to reform Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs) like Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.
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2008March 14, 2008: Bear Stearns gets Fed funding as shares plummet.
March 16, 2008: Bear Stearns gets acquired for $2 a share by JPMorgan Chase in a fire sale avoiding bankruptcy. The deal is backed by Federal Reserve providing up to $30B to cover possible Bear Stearn losses.
May 6, 2008: UBS AG Swiss bank announced plans to cut 5,500 jobs by the middle of 2009
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2008September 7, 2008: Federal takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
September 14, 2008: Merrill Lynch sold to Bank of America amidst fears of a liquidity crisis and Lehman Brothers collapse
September 15, 2008: Lehman Brothers files for bankruptcy protection
September 16, 2008: Moody's and Standard and Poor's downgrade ratings on AIG's credit on concerns over continuing losses to mortgage-backed securities, sending the company into fears of insolvency.
September 17, 2008: The US Federal Reserve loans $85 billion to American International Group (AIG) to avoid bankruptcy.
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2008September 19, 2008: Paulson financial rescue plan unveiled after a volatile week in stock and debt markets.
September 25, 2008: Washington Mutual was seized by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, and its banking assets were sold to JP MorganChase for $1.9bn.
September 29, 2008: Emergency Economic Stabilization Act defeated 228-205 in the United States House of Representatives.
September 29, 2008: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation announces that Citigroup Inc. would acquire banking operations of Wachovia.
October 1, 2008: The U.S. Senate passes HR1424, their version of the bailout bill.
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US GDP 1996 $7.82 trillion
2007 $13.84 trillion
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Some things to think about1. Short Term Compensation for long tailed risks
2. It must be ok if everyone else is doing it
3. Gone is not always gone
4. “The market knows”
5. Marginality
6. Leverage
7. Counterparty
8. Observed Volatility models
9. Growth & Risk
10. Inflexible risk model
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Things to Think About11. Diversification vs. Correlation
12. Liquidity
13. The end of the cycle
14. Disclosures
15. Greater fool theory
16. Valuation model procyclical
17. Recognition of Uncertainty
18. Risk limit for new risks
19. Law of One Price and replication
20. Underwriting
21. Giving away the pen
22. Excess complexity
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Think About 23. Compliance Culture
24. Adversarial Risk Management functions
25. Regulation Dismantled
26. Keeping potential losses within the family
27. Empowering the Business units
28. Reliance on third party risk evaluations
29. Risk falls into the cracks
30. Ignoring second order consequences
31. Keeping it Simple
32. Stress Tests were not credible
33. Directors and Management Responsibility
34. Structural inability to participate in workout
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An Old Question . . .
Do you want to Eat Well
Or Sleep Well
