ERG-RSPG Joint Session February 27, 2008 G öteborg
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Transcript of ERG-RSPG Joint Session February 27, 2008 G öteborg
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ERG-RSPG Joint SessionFebruary 27, 2008
Göteborg
« Broadband wireless as an alternative infrastructure? A prospective overview of
technologies, markets & regulation »
Gérard POGORELProfessor of Economics
TELECOM ParisTech (ENST)<[email protected]>
RSPG ERG Joint meeting Gerard Pogorel pres 080303
ERG-RSPG 27/2/2008 2<gerard.pogorel@telecom-paristech>
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Wireless broadband as an Alternative Infrastructure?
Areas of tentative analysis
1. Technical functionalities, performances and services, as compared to fixed
2. Telecom markets definition and competition
3. Industry structure considerations
4. Regulation considerations
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1. Roadmaps: Data rates=Mobile & Fixed technologies
Source: IDATE
10 Kbps
100 Kbps
1 Mbps
10 Mbps
100 Mbps
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
CDMA
GPRS CDMA 2000 1x
EDGE
UMTS Rel. ‘99
CDMA 2000 EVDO Rev. 0 HSDPA
TD-SCDMACDMA 2000
EVDO Rev. A
CDMA 2000 EVDO Rev. B
HSUPA
Mobile WiMAX
LTECDMA 2000
EVDO Rev. C Mobile WiMAX
Maximum downlink data rate
Flash-OFDM
1 Gbps
xDSL
FO
MOBILE
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1a. Wireless roadmaps: UMTS -WCDMA / HSPA / LTE
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1b. Wireless roadmaps CDMA 2000-UMB
Source: QUALCOMM
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1c. Wireless roadmaps + WiMax
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Question marks : Wireless
• LTE: 2009-10• WiMax: 30-70 megabits 60km• UMP
– Which is fastest, most efficient, and most cost-effective.
– Some vendors deny mobile voice efficiency to WiMax
• Uplink Data rate
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Question marks : Fixed
• Fiber: Slow start (2007)
• Will it happen, when and how ?
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Wireless vs. Fixed: functionalities
• If functionnally equal…
• Mobility wins? Lessons from voice telephony: depends where you start from
– Developed countries: hand in hand
– Emerging countries go wireless
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Wireless broadband as an Alternative infrastructure?
Areas of tentative analysis
1. Technical functionalities,
2. Telecom markets definition and competition
3. Industry structure4. Regulation
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Extension of Worldwide Broadband Wireless
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Wireless & Fixed: networks
• Converged offers• More Potential technical
complementarities – Femtocells accelerate switch to
voice on mobile; but need fixed broadband to connect femtocells back to core mobile networks (Source: Analysys, Idate)
• potential geographic complementarities
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Wireless, Fixed Compared 2008
Fixed Wireless 3G+
Internet Access/pageWeather,sports, stocks, news
<1s <2s(end 2007: 70-80% have some access -> 30-40% use it/In Transition to full
Web access)
TV/Video 50+ channels Up to 50 channels+videos
Music downloads
5-10s 30-60s /audio file
Tests France Feb 2008
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Wireless vs. Fixed: terminals
• The “3 screens”: TV+PC+Mobile
– Different in Size, versatility, QoS, costs
– Are they
• Substitutes, or
• Substitutes & complements
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Wireless as an alternative infrastructure: the voice telephony market analogy
ETNO Reflection Document RD274 (2008/01)?? Wireless broadband to be considered an alternative infrastructure when wireless voice is not, at least in most countries « …obviously different services both in terms of utility and of production »2 different markets, except in those countries where F&M are already substitutes:SEE ARCEP fixed telephony consultation document Feb 20
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F & M literature see definition of relevant markets
convergence of termination rates literature
Technical dimension of Fixed & Mobile market distinction (ETNO ibid.):
•Switching and signalling sytems of mobile networks more complex than fixed•Geography of transmission links different: Mobile more costly•Capacity costs more traffic sensitive for mobile (does it matter)
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An alternative infrastructure?
• Fixed Broadband trend: up, differ from fixed voice, down
• Relevant market test…
• Not there yet, but… Analysys
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Wireless Revolution
• India 2007: – Internet connections via PC declined: Q1
9.27 million - Q2 9.22 million (Source: Telecom Regulatory Authority of India)
– Mobile Internet expected to reach 200million users in 2010 (Source: Indian Cellular Assn)
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Wireless broadband as an Alternative infrastructure?
Areas of tentative analysis1. Technical functionalities2. Telecom markets definition and
competition
3. Industry structure considerations (vertical and horizontal integration), barriers to entry, bottlenecks
4. Regulation
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Industry structure considerations
• Vertical and horizontal integration, barriers to entry
• Bottlenecks (access, origination and termination)
• How will the actors handle the development of fixed and wireless broadband?
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Wireless broadband as an Alternative infrastructure?
Areas of tentative analysis
1. Technical functionalities2. Telecom markets definition and
competition3. Industry structure
4. Regulatory considerations
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4. The regulator’s Role
• Providing a competitive environment for innovation under heavily uncertain conditions
• Consumer interest
• Level playing field
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Converging services: similar sets of services to be offered on fixed and wireless…
Converging regimes to be applied to Fixed and Wireless
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Regulatory issues
• Ex ante/ex post
• Convergence
• « bottlenecks regulation »– Access, Origination, Termination)
• ?? access to radio spectrum: differences in licensing and authorisation regimes
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4.1. Legacy Spectrum issues/3G Licences
price? Country 3G Holders Price per licence
(EUR) Spectrum FDD + TDD Method
Denmark TDC
Telia Denmark
Orange
H3G
0.127 billion
0.127 billion
0.127 billion
0.127 billion
2x15MHz + 5MHz
2x15MHz + 5MHz
2x15MHz + 5MHz
2x15MHz + 5MHz
Sealed bid process
France Orange France
SFR
Bouygues Telecom
619 million, plus a 1% tax on UMTS revenues
2x15MHz + 5MHz
2x15MHz + 5MHz
2x15MHz + 5MHz
Beauty contest
Germany Vodafone D2
T-Mobile Deutschland
E-Plus
O2 Germany
Mobilcom*
Quam (3G Group)
8.4 billion
8.5 billion
8.4 billion
8.4 billion
8.4 billion
8.4 billion
2x5MHz + 5MHz
2x5MHz + 5MHz
2x5MHz + 5MHz
2x5MHz + 5MHz
2x5MHz + 5MHz
2x5MHz + 5MHz
Auction
Italy TIM
Vodafone Omnitel
Wind
ISPE2000
Andala (H3G)
2.417 billion
2.448 billion
2.427 billion
2.442 billion
2.427 billion
2x10MHz + 5MHz
2x10MHz + 5MHz
2x10MHz + 5MHz
2x15MHz + 5MHz
2x15MHz + 5MHz
Hybrid: auction and beauty contest
The Netherlands
KPN Mobile
Vodafone (Libertel)
Orange (Dutchtone)
Telfort
T-Mobile Netherlands
0.7 billion
0.7 billion
0.4 billion
0.4 billion
0.4 billion
2x15 MHz +5MHz
2x15 MHz +5MHz
2x10 MHz
2x10 MHz
2x10 MHz
Auction
Spain Telefónica Moviles
Vodafone Spain (Airtel)
Amena
Xfera
0.13 billion
0.13 billion
0.13 billion
0.13 billion
2x15MHz + 5MHz
2x15MHz + 5MHz
2x15MHz + 5MHz
2x15MHz + 5MHz
Beauty contest
The UK Vodafone UK
O2 UK
Orange UK
T-Mobile UK
Hutchison 3G UK
9.85 billion
6.65 billion
6.75 billion
6.61 billion
7.23 billion
2x15MHz + 5MHz
2x10MHz + 5MHz
2x10MHz + 5MHz
2x10MHz + 5MHz
2x15MHz
Auction
An average value of10 EUR per pop
(upfront payment only)
A maximum value of164 EUR per pop
A maximum value of106 EUR per pop
An average value of23 EUR per pop
An average value of3.2 EUR per pop
Source: IDATE
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What price level spectrum?
•Current Price levels of WiMAX licenses in the 100s mil €
•More reasonable and in line with use of limited resource
The easier spectrum access, the closer we get to a wireless alternative infrastructure
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20022002 2003 2004 2005 2003 2004 2005 20062006 2007 2007 20082008 20092009 20102010 20112011 2012 2013 2012 2013 2014 2014 20152015 2016 2016
SDR:Full dynamic spectrum allocation from 2015.
SDR: Soft upgrades for mobile devices from 2011.
Multiple standards in mobile devices (GPS, WiMAX, 3G, WiFi).
UWB: 50 models of UWB devices approved by the FCC since 2002.
Cognitive radio: Full dynamic spectrum allocation from 2015.
USA: FCC approval in 2002
Europe: Power spectral density mask still debated.
No dedicated frequency bands for ETSI, ECC and ITU.
Harmonized standard in 2006 or 2007.
Cognitive radio: Smarter cognitive radios techniques from 2010. (DECT already available )
Antennas technologies: No previsions regarding wideband and reconfigurable antennas.
MIMO is expected to be deployed in commercial networks in the 2008 timeframe.
SDR. Many experiments. Platforms capable to connect into WLAN (802.11) or UMTS (W-CDMA) networks, or to act as HDTV receiver.
Wired remote upgrade in base stations from 2007.
Mesh networks. Many experiments.
MIMO. Prototypes.Pre-standard MIMO equipments are already available. MIMO applications will be part of the IEEE 802.11n High-Throughput standard which is expected in mid 2006
Network integration / Roll out & Commercial Launch Available
Timetable Estimation for Technologies Development Source: SPORTVIEWS-IDATE
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“Cluster” approach proposed in Digital dividend document……
Given the strong interaction of frequency band, service application, and technology assessment, which constitute the basic foundation of the choice of a spectrum management regime,
we propose to operate those choices for each “cluster” of consistent and relevant band/service/technology
Cluster
Frequency bands Technologies Services
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“Cluster” approach proposed in Nov 23 Digital Dividend document……
…To be extended to fixed-wireless convergence
Alternative infrastructures: Neutrality of regulatory framework
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Unleashing the innovative potential of Fixed & Wireless technologies
by Fixed-Wireless “cluster” regulation
1. Technology: neutral2. Usage Rights Definition: consistent3. Licence/Autorisation Assignment
Modes: coherent in EU
-> Towards global authorisations/ licences ?
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• Spectrum regulation is key
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Thank You