ERCOT Lodestar Extracts Timing Recommendation ERCOT May 24, 2005.
ERCOT 2009 CSC Proposal 3h Mark Garrett – Direct Energy Clayton Greer – J Aron.
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Transcript of ERCOT 2009 CSC Proposal 3h Mark Garrett – Direct Energy Clayton Greer – J Aron.
ERCOT 2009 CSC Proposal 3hERCOT 2009 CSC Proposal 3h
Mark Garrett – Direct EnergyMark Garrett – Direct EnergyClayton Greer – J AronClayton Greer – J Aron
2
ERCOT Contour Plot – Proposal 3h
3
ERCOT Transmission Map – 3 CSC Proposals
Bates
J.L. Bates
Frontera
4
What historical data will be representative of 2009 conditions?
Static wire replacement outages on Graham - Abilene - Morgan Creek double circuit 345kV path resulted in major W-N transmission congestion during period from 2/4 through 3/30 and is not expected to be repeated during 2009.
– February-March W-N zonal congestion cost totals $34,153,644.
PRR 764 was implemented on June 9, 2008, removing non-CREs from the zonal solution.
– 2008 W-N Non-CRE zonal congestion cost totals $7,953,061 (excludes Feb-March)
Long Creek Substation was looped into Sweetwater Cogen - Graham 345 kV line on June 3, 2008.
– This change 1) equalized flows on Graham – Long Creek circuits #1 and #2, 2) increased the flow on the Mulberry Creek – Long Creek, and 3) exacerbated the congestion on the Mulberry Creek – Long Creek.
No major outages in 2009 are scheduled per TPIT or Outage Scheduler. If Clear Crossing work results in an outage on Tonkawa – Graham, then Mulberry Creek – Long Creek carries a heavier burden.
5
What historical data will be representative of 2009 conditions? (continued)
Exclude Feb-Mar 2008 due to static wire outage.
Ignore Non-CRE congestion.
W-N topology was significantly reconfigured on June 3 and will remain constant through 2009.
THEREFORE, June 3 to date is the most representative historical data.
6
June transmission flows were a result of high wind outputERCOT Total Wind Output
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
4/1/
2008
0:0
0
4/4/
2008
14:
00
4/8/
2008
4:0
0
4/11
/200
8
4/15
/200
8 8:
00
4/18
/200
8
4/22
/200
8
4/26
/200
8 2:
00
4/29
/200
8
5/3/
2008
6:0
0
5/6/
2008
20:
00
5/10
/200
8
5/14
/200
8 0:
00
5/17
/200
8
5/21
/200
8 4:
00
5/24
/200
8
5/28
/200
8 8:
00
5/31
/200
8
6/4/
2008
12:
00
6/8/
2008
2:0
0
6/11
/200
8
6/15
/200
8 6:
00
6/18
/200
8
6/22
/200
8
6/26
/200
8 0:
00
6/29
/200
8
7/3/
2008
4:0
0
7/6/
2008
18:
00
7/10
/200
8 8:
00
7/13
/200
8
7/17
/200
8
7/21
/200
8 2:
00
7/24
/200
8
7/28
/200
8 6:
00
7/31
/200
8
8/4/
2008
10:
00
8/8/
2008
0:0
0
8/11
/200
8
June 4-8 Avg=3,649MW
4/1-8/11 Avg=1,883MW
7
Electrical Flows on relevant lines – May 30 through June 5
Bastrop
Graham Line Flow (all flows stated West -> North)
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
5/30/2008 5/31/2008 6/1/2008 6/2/2008 6/3/2008 6/4/2008 6/5/2008
Sweetwater to Graham Long Creek to Graham
Flows converge on June 3 after 2-day outage to tie-in Long Creek
8
Flows on Mulberry Creek – Long Creek have increased
Configuration before June 3
Configuration after June 3
Note increase after June 3
Note flows equalize after June 3
9
Historical congestion cost – June 3 to present
West To North Congestion ChargesJun 3 - Aug 10, 2008
Occurrences - Days
SCKT Fisher Road – Oklaunion & Bowman
345 kV
DCKT Graham – Benbrook & Parker 345
kV
DCKT Graham – Long Creek 1&2 345 kV
Dynamic Stability
Abilene Mulberry Creek – Long Creek 345 kV - 3h 3h - 13 days
Graham –Murray 138 kV line - 3g 3g - 1 day
Willow Creek - Parker 345 kV line - 3b 3b - 6 days
Dynamic Stability 3 days
Total Occurrences 23 days
Congestion Cost - $
SCKT Fisher Road – Oklaunion & Bowman
345 kV
DCKT Graham – Benbrook & Parker 345
kV
DCKT Graham – Long Creek 1&2 345 kV
Dynamic Stability
Abilene Mulberry Creek – Long Creek 345 kV - 3h $12,278,903
Graham –Murray 138 kV line - 3g $104,044
Willow Creek - Parker 345 kV line - 3b $2,290,343
Dynamic Stability $1,577,897
Total Charges $16,251,187
OV
ER
LO
AD
OV
ER
LO
AD
OUTAGE
OUTAGE
10
Historical congestion days – June 3 to present
Thermal Constraint (3b)
Thermal Constraint (3g)
Thermal
Constraint (3h)
Dynamic Stability Only
June 1 day 0 days 9 days 5 days (local)
July 3 days 1 day 4 days 3 days (zonal)
August 2 days 0 days 0 days 0 days
Total 6 days 1 day 13 days 8 days
Percent Total 21% 4% 46% 29%
Percent Thermal 30% 5% 65% N/A
11
Projected congestion data – calendar year 2009
[RESULTS FROM PRODUCTION COST STUDY FORTHCOMING.]
12
Proposal 3h is the most efficient outcomeImportance of Making the Right Decision
Zonal construct assumes average impact from generation in a zone Physics doesn’t match (hence the change to nodal) Generation sitting on constraint receiving wrong price signal has multiplicative effect due to shift
factor difference
Constraint
Best Counterflow
North Zone
Zonal Average CounterflowWest Zone
13
Result - Proposal 3h is the most efficient outcome
Generator with highest beneficial shift factor receives negative price signal That generator reduces generation (to zero) That beneficial generation must be replaced by moving up the stack not only the
amount of the generation, but by the shift factor difference For example, 400 MWs is located at Long Creek and has twice the positive impact on
the constraint as the North Zone (shift factor difference is an estimate only) With Long Creek in West Zone, the North Zone must not only replace the 400MWs
Long Creek moves down, but must also provide an additional 400MWs due to the solution being less efficient
With Long Creek in the North Zone, this 800 MWs would not have to have been moved at all
Result if decision is wrong is increased spreads and volatility The converse is also true, which is why we need to get this right
Balancing Deployment with Right Decision
Balancing Deployment with Wrong Decision
= ==
14
More wind coming in 2009 in the west
Howard
Borden
Taylor
Shackleford
Cottle
Coke
Pecos
Andrews
Dawson Scurry
SterlingEctor
Nolan
Martin
Dickens
STERLING
• Sterling Energy Center – 200MW – PL
• Sterling Energy Center 2 – 300MW – PL
COTTLE
• Wild Horse Wind Farm 1 – 60MW – IA
• Wild Horse Wind Farm 2 – 39MW – IA DICKENS
• McAdoo Energy Center 2 – 500MW – PL
MARTIN
• Lenorah – 350MW – PL
NOLAN
• Turkey Track Energy Center – 170MW – IA
• Buffalo Gap 4 – 131MW – PL
• Buffalo Gap 5 – 335MW – PL
TAYLOR
• South Trent –101MW – IA
ECTOR
• Pistol Hill – 300MW – PL
• Notrees – 151MW - IA
DAWSON
• Lamesa Wind Plant – 183MW – IA
ANDREWS
• M Bar Wind – 194MW – PL
PECOS
• Sherbino Mesa Wind Farm 1 – 150MW – IA
SHACKLEFORD
• Mesquite 4 (Cottonwood) – 100MW – IA
• Mesquite 5 (Cedar Elm) – 136MW – IA
• Hackberry – 165MW – IA
HOWARD
• Panther Creek – 150MW – IA
• Ocotillo – 59MW – IA
• Gunsight Mountain – 120MW – IA
• Panther Creek 2 – 220MW – IA
• Elbow Creek – 117MW – IA
COKE
• Capricorn Ridge 3 – 249MW – IA
BORDEN
• Bull Creek – 180MW – IA
• Gray Wind – 141MW – PL
• Coyote Run – 225MW – IA
• Wind Tex (Stephens Wind Farm) – 141MW - PL
SCURRY
• Airtricity Inadale – 212MW – IA
• Pyron – 303MW – IA
UPCOMING WIND PROJECTS in Western ERCOT
JUNE 2008 – DEC 2009
3,090 MW : Interconnection Agreement
2,592 MW : Public Letter
Total : 5,682 MW
CSC Scenario #3H
• Abilene Mulberry Creek – Long Creek
• Sweetwater Cogen – Long Creek
15
Conclusion
W-N transmission topology for 2009 was reconfigured on June 3, 2008.
Thermal congestion since June 3 was primarily on Abilene Mulberry Creek – Long Creek : 13 out of 20 days.
CSC selection process should give generators correct price signals to reduce total congestion cost by locating generators in the correct congestion zone.
Abilene Mulberry Creek – Long Creek CSC in Scenario 3h will reduce congestion costs more than Scenarios 3b or 3g.
Scenario 3h is the optimal scenario for the W_N and N_W CSC interface