EQUITY TRADING STRATEGY - Baroda E-Trade

12
BOBCAPS TRIUMPH EQUITY TRADING STRATEGY

Transcript of EQUITY TRADING STRATEGY - Baroda E-Trade

Page 1: EQUITY TRADING STRATEGY - Baroda E-Trade

BOBCAPS TRIUMPH EQUITY TRADING STRATEGY

Page 2: EQUITY TRADING STRATEGY - Baroda E-Trade

INDIA GDP – THE $5 TRILLION DREAM

AIM TO DOUBLE

1.92.0

2.1

2.3

2.72.8

3.1

3.4

3.8

4.3

5.0

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

GDP ( trillion $) Nifty Levels

2014

2024

2019

Source: ET

India has set it’s sight on 2x GDP growth by 2024….

Is your portfolio positioned to beat the same?

2Actual Estimated

GDP Growth rate – 8% GDP Growth rate – 11.5%

Page 3: EQUITY TRADING STRATEGY - Baroda E-Trade

INDIVIDUALS UNDER-PERFORM INSTITUTIONS

LOSERS vs WINNERS

Source: ET

15

30

-4.3

-19.3

60

25

34.4

19.4

61

28

48.3

33.3

Stock gaining in value Stock losing in value Average returns Alpha over BSE 500

Retail favourite stocks Other stocks Instituitutional favourite stocks

Institutional Investors: Markets Biggest Winners

❖ Institutions’ superior stock selection results in higher gains ❖ Retailers realize more number of losses than gains

❖ Negative average returns borne by retailers due to multiple inefficiencies ❖ Retailer’s under-perform benchmark, while Institutions enjoy 30%+ alpha

OBSERVATIONS

3

Page 4: EQUITY TRADING STRATEGY - Baroda E-Trade

THINGS YOU MAY FIND IN YOUR PORTFOLIO

OVER-DIVERSIFIED

Diluting Gains

EMOTIONAL BIASES

Conflict between

Greed & Fear

NO TIMELY TRACKING

Good gone Bad

Bad gone Worse

SKEWED FOCUS

Noise Based Multi

Bagger over Potential

CAGR

POOR ALLOCATION

Non-Quality over

Quality Stocks

VALUE TRAP

Valuation over

Value Creation

Investing in stocks just

because they seem cheap / available at cheap prices

Investment in riskier stocks are unevenly

higher

Too many stocks in the

portfolio reduces

contribution of individual

stocks

OBSERVATIONS

Fear of booking

losses, and greed for

early / riding profits results in poor exits

Lack of active monitoring,

leads to a decomposing

portfolio

Focusing on noise-based

multi-baggers, induces

higher risk into portfolio

COMMON MISTAKES BY INDIVIDUAL INVESTORS

4

Page 5: EQUITY TRADING STRATEGY - Baroda E-Trade

WHAT TO BUY ?? <----> WHEN TO BUY ??

OLD-AGE QUESTIONS

BOBCAPS TRIUMPH (Equity Trading Strategy)

NEW-AGE SOLUTION

5

Page 6: EQUITY TRADING STRATEGY - Baroda E-Trade

BOBCAPS TRIUMPH PROCESS

FOCUSED APPROACH

Universe Composition

(Quality Universe + Nifty 500)

Technical Filter

Identifying Sector Theme

Timing through Technicals

BOBCAPS TRIUMPH

DISTILLING DIVERSFICATION

Over-diversifying = Lower Return contributionsIncrease in stocks count reduces individual contribution to the portfolio

Portfolio concentration = Increased Return contributionOut-performance of few stocks compensates for underperformance of others

DIVERSIFICATION DISSOLVES GAINS

CONCENTRATION ‘SKIN IN THE GAME’

DIVERSIFICATION DLUTES

CONCENTRATION COMPOUNDS

DIVERSIFICATION PRESERVES WEALTH

CONCENTRATION CREATES WEALTH

DIV

ERSI

FIC

ATI

ON

D

ILEM

MA

Focused Equity Trading Strategy

6

Page 7: EQUITY TRADING STRATEGY - Baroda E-Trade

BOBCAPS TRIUMPH PORTFOLIO

OUR EQUITY TRADING STRATEGY

BOBCAPS Triumph is an actively-focused equity trading strategy of ~15 shortlisted high conviction stock ideas using Technical Analysis, within the top

100 stocks held by Mutual Funds. Triumph features disciplined entry and exit into quality stocks, with efforts focused on absolute performance.

Focused equity strategy of ~15 high

conviction stocks, hand-picked across

market-caps, having Large-Caps bias

Re-alignment of portfolio will be done as per changing market trends

Tactful timing via Technical Analysis for disciplined entry and

exit within universe stocks respecting

trends

Top 100 stocks, held by the Mutual Fund industry, covering over 70% of equity AUM

QUALITY STOCK UNIVERSE

TECHNICAL APPROACH

FOCUSED STRATEGY

ACTIVE MONITORING

INVESTMENT OBJECTIVE

INVESTMENT PHILOSOPHY

7

Page 8: EQUITY TRADING STRATEGY - Baroda E-Trade

BOBCAPS TRIUMPH UNIVERSE

COVERAGE DEEP-DIVE

80%-100%

QUALITYUNIVERSE

Large Cap67%

Mid Cap33%

0%-20%NIFTY

500

Large Cap20%

Mid Cap29%

Small Cap52%

35%

15%12% 11%

6% 4% 4%3% 2% 2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

23%18%

15%11% 9% 8% 6% 5% 4%

1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%Quality Universe Nifty 500

STOCK ALLOCATION & MARKET-CAP BREAK-DOWN

SECTOR BREAK-DOWN

Universe Universe

Allocation Allocation

8

Page 9: EQUITY TRADING STRATEGY - Baroda E-Trade

OUR TECHNICAL APPROACH

OUR FORTE

RESPECT THE TREND

SECTOR THEME

AIMING FOR WINNERS

RISK : REWARD

COGNITIVE OVER

EMOTIONAL

Find Value within GROWTH stocks

Following the “Trend is your friend” principle

Identifying superior sectors for finding quality stocks

Disciplined entry and exit, buffering emotional positions

Secret to successful investing is knowing your risk

9

Page 10: EQUITY TRADING STRATEGY - Baroda E-Trade

PAST PERFORMANCE

HIGH CONVICTION TECHNICAL IDEAS

Its not whether you’re right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong

Disciplined approach resulting in favourable profits

“It’s the conviction that matters most

while investing”

Note: Stocks highlighted are over a span of two plus years

10

13

20

99

50

22

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Loss more than 8% Loss 5%-8% Loss 3%-5% Profit 3%-5% Profit 5%-8% Profit more than 8%

Disciplined approach resulting in favourable profits

“It’s the conviction that matters most

while investing”

Page 11: EQUITY TRADING STRATEGY - Baroda E-Trade

BOBCAPS TRIUMPH FEATURES

KEY INFORMATION

Investment Universe ❖ 80% - 100% From Quality Universe ❖ 0% - 20% From Nifty 500

Investment Approach Technical Analysis

Investment Style High-conviction Delivery-based Ideas, with Large-Cap bias

Investment Universe ReviewingQuarterly Basis

(As and when there is change in Top 100 stock constituents within Quality universe)

Number Of Stocks Up To 15 stocks

Risk Profile Equity-Oriented

Defining Market Capitalization (as per AMFI) ❖ Large Cap: 1st–100th ❖ Mid Cap: 101st –250th❖ Small Cap : 251st Onwards

Annual Subscription Fees (excl. taxes) Rs. 4,000 /-*

11*This is an Early-bird offer! Discounted benefits are for First 100 clients only!

Page 12: EQUITY TRADING STRATEGY - Baroda E-Trade

12

BOBCAPS is engaged in the business of Institutional Stock Broking and Investment Banking. BOBCAPS is a member of the National Stock Exchange of India Limited and BSE Limitedand is also a SEBI-registered Category I Merchant Banker. BOBCAPS is a wholly owned subsidiary of Bank of Baroda which has its various subsidiaries engaged in the businesses ofstock broking, lending, asset management, life insurance, health insurance and wealth management, among others. BOBCAPS has obtained registration as a Research Entity underSEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014, having registration No.: INH000000040 valid till 03 February 2020.

BOBCAPS is a merchant banker/underwriter, is engaged in investment banking activities and may have business relationships with companies covered by its Equity ResearchDepartment. BOBCAPS prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts, and members of their households from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives ofany companies that the analysts cover. The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by BOBCAPS and are subject to change without any notice. The report andinformation contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or inwhole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of BOBCAPS. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on areasonable basis, BOBCAPS is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be reasons that prevent BOBCAPS from doing so.

This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy orcompleteness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer tobuy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the sametime. BOBCAPS will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or arepresentation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to an investor’s specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report maynot be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs. This report may not betaken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient and the recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks.

The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. BOBCAPS accepts no liabilities whatsoever for anyloss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those setforth in projections. Forward looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Investors are advised to see the Risk Disclosure Document tounderstand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets.

BOBCAPS or its associates may have managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for the subject company mentioned in the report or may have been mandated by thesubject company for any other assignment in the past 12 months. BOBCAPS or its associates may have received compensation from the subject company in the past 12 months forservices in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in amerger or specific transaction.

BOBCAPS or its associates may have received compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subjectcompany in the past 12 months

BOBCAPS encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research reports. BOBCAPS or its research analyst(s) has notreceived any compensation or other benefits from the subject company or any third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither BOBCAPS norits research analyst(s) have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. Compensation of the research analyst(s) is not based on any specific merchantbanking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions.

BOBCAPS or its research analyst(s) do not have actual/beneficial ownership of one per cent or more securities in the subject company at the end of the month immediatelypreceding the date of publication of this report. Since associates of BOBCAPS are engaged in various financial service businesses, they may have financial interests or beneficialownership in various companies, including the subject company. BOBCAPS or its research analyst(s) is not engaged in any market making activities for the subject company.

BOBCAPS may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusions from the information presented in this report. No disciplinary action has beentaken by any regulatory authority against BOBCAPS affecting its equity research analysis activities. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person orentity who is a citizen or resident of, or located in, any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law,regulation or which would subject BOBCAPS and its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not beeligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observesuch restrictions.

DISCLAIMER