Equity Research Report 29 March 2016 Ways2Capital

8/19/2019 Equity Research Report 29 March 2016 Ways2Capital

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2/18

TECHNICAL TREND ( NIFTY - BANK NIFTY FUTURES )

NIFTY FIFTY : The market has opened on a strong note Monday. The Nifty is up 51

points or 0.7 percent at 7561. Equity benchmarks remained strong in morning trade

following positive global cues. as traders began to take a more positive view of the

European Central Bank's monetary policy decision last week. The India's industrial output

during January contracted, The Government is hopeful of passing the GST bill in the

second half of the budget session, Reserve Bank Governor Raghuram Rajan said the

economy is recovering, but the process of recovery is volatile. The European Central

Bank's decision to expand its balance sheet is a welcome move and would fuel a short-

term rally in equity markets across the globe. The Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday

to hold rates steady and pencil in fewer rate hikes reflects a central bank feeling its way

through tremendous uncertainty. Now the focus will shift to local issues such as earnings,

corporate performance, RBI april policy move, The domestic risk of environment right

now has become normal and neutral environment and may be now we will start seeing

some money flows towards emerging market. The crucial levels for Nifty is 7480-7300

downside and 7670-7860 is Upside.

BANK NIFTY : - The Bank Nifty opened higher on Monday at 15735 up by 81 points or

0.61 per cent . The rally in the Bank Nifty come from the Govt. Support toward the Public

Sector Banks. St. Louis Fed chief James Bullard wants the US Federal Reserve to press

the button on further rate liftoff as he feels the US central bank has largely met its goals on

the employment an and inflation fronts . Traders and speculators in the futures market

have started initiating fresh long positions on Nifty Bank, RBI's money policy review. The

Reserve Bank of India april policy move can be positive for the market there is a

possibility of rate cut by RBI so rally in Bank Nifty will be continue, The Resistance for

Bank Nifty is 16200-16475 and Support for Bank Nifty is 15635-15000.

Monday, 28 March 2016


3/18

TECHNICAL VIEW (NIFTY- BANK NIFTY FUTURES )

NIFTY

DAILY R2 R1 PP S1 S2

7887 7763 7701 7639 7515

WEEKLY R2 R1 PP S1 S2

7889 7765 7703 7641 7515

MONTHLY R2 R1 PP S1 S2

9601 8193 7489 6785 5377

BANK NIFTY

DAILY R2 R1 PP S1 S2

16228 15988 15868 15748 15508

WEEKLY R2 R1 PP S1 S2

16097 15921 15833 15745 15569

MONTHLY R2 R1 PP S1 S2

20972 17178 15281 13384 9590

MOVING AVERAGE 21 DAYS 50 DAYS 100 DAYS 200 DAYS

NIFTY 7425 7366 7594 7899

BANK NIFTY 15896 15705 15773 15813

PARABOLIC SAR DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

NIFTY 7617 7627 7749

BANK NIFTY 15498 13458 12688


4/18

PATTERN FORMATION ( NIFTY )

Detail of Chart -

On the Above given chart of Bank Nifty has applied the Parabolic SAR along with

Bollinger band and it is also made the Bearish Engulfing Pattern which is the crucial

trend signal, Nifty is around its strongest Support level its around 7600. The parabolic

SAR is also near the price value of the stock we are expecting that if the Nifty is able to

sustain the level of 7600 we may witness the rally toward the Bull Movement and if it is

breaking the level we may witness Bearish movement in Nifty, The strong Support for

Nifty is 7600-7550 and Resistance is 7800-7950.


5/18

PATTERN FORMATION ( BANK NIFTY )

Details of Chart-

On the Above given weekly chart of Bank Nifty applied Parabolic SAR and with channel

line it is also made the strong Support level which is the crucial trend identification

signal, the Bank Nifty is around its crucial Support level. The parabolic SAR is also near

the price value of the stock we are expecting that, The Bank Nifty will move toward the

down trend in near term and not breaking the level of crucial Support of 15700 that will

be the crucial level. on the other hand if Bank Nifty Sustain the support level we may

witness the Bull movement of the index and can break the level of 15950 which is the

strong Resistance for Bank Nifty.


6/18

NSE EQUITY DAILY LEVELS

COMPANY NAME R2 R1 PP S1 S2

ACC EQ 1412 1396 1375 1359 1338

ALBK EQ 54 53 52 52 51

AMBUJACEM EQ 239 236 230 227 221

ASIAN PAINT EQ 862 855 851 844 840

AXISBANK EQ 442 438 434 430 426

BAJAJ-AUTO EQ 2395 2371 2352 2328 2309

BANKBARODA EQ 146 145 143 142 140

BANKINDIA EQ 98 96 95 93 92

BHEL EQ 119 117 116 115 113

BHARTIARTL EQ 365 358 354 347 343

CIPLA EQ 539 536 533 530 527

COALINDIA EQ 300 297 295 291 289

DLF EQ 116 112 111 107 106

DRREDDY EQ 3106 3077 3046 3017 2986

GAIL EQ 365 362 359 356 353

GRASIM EQ 3850 3819 3776 3745 3702

HCLTECH EQ 830 823 818 811 806HDFC EQ 1180 1163 1154 1137 1128

HDFCBANK EQ 1059 1054 1048 1043 1037

HEROMOTOCO EQ 2912 2884 2862 2834 2812

HINDALCO EQ 94 91 89 86 84

HINDUNILVR EQ 881 873 868 860 855

ICICIBANK EQ 236 233 230 227 224

ITC EQ 333 329 324 320 315

INDUSIND EQ 947 935 926 914 905

INFY EQ 1248 1230 1218 1200 1188

JINDALSTEL EQ 64 63 62 60 59

KOTAKBANK EQ 685 679 670 664 655LT EQ 1252 1243 1237 1228 1222

M&M EQ 1273 1261 1253 1241 1233

MRF EQ 35943 35717 35473 35247 35003

MARUTI EQ 3823 3736 3691 3604 3559

ONGC EQ 221 217 215 211 209

ORIENTBANK EQ 94 91 89 86 85

RCOM EQ 54 52 51 49 48

RELCAPITAL EQ 381 373 367 359 353

RELIANCE EQ 1040 1032 1024 1016 1008

RELINFRA EQ 543 533 525 515 507

RPOWER EQ 49 47 47 45 45SBIN EQ 202 195 192 185 182

SSLT( VEDL) EQ 101 95 91 85 82

SUNPHARMA EQ 860 834 820 794 780

TATAMOTORS EQ 380 372 367 359 355

TATAPOWER EQ 64 63 61 60 59

TATASTEEL EQ 325 315 306 293 286

UNIONBANK EQ 130 127 125 122 120


7/18

TOP 15 ACHIEVERS // TOP 15 LOOSERS

SR.NO SCRIPT NAME PREV CLOSE CMP % CHANGE

1WELSPUN INDIA 961 101

-89.45 %

2NATCO PHARMA 489 406

-17.06 %

3LUPIN LTD. 1722 1507

-12.51 %

4VAKRANGEE 220 195

-11.36 %

5RAJESH EXPORT LTD 6486 603

-7.00 %

6FIRSTSOURCE SOLU 34.55 32.45

-6.08 %

7FINOLEX INDUSTRI 369 356

-3.59 %

8EMAMI LTD. 950 916

-3.59 %

9ASIAN PAINTS LTD 884 854

-3.43 %

10WOCKHARDT LTD. 978 944

-3.41 %

11SUZLON ENERGY 13.75 13.30

-3.27 %

12CEAT LTD. 1086 1052

-3.17 %

13GATI LTD. 110 106

-2.91 %

14DR. REDDY LAB 3133 3048

-2.72 %

15ABAN OFFSHORE 185 181 -2.16 %

SR.NO SCRIPT NAMEPREV

CLOSECMP % CHANGE

1

AMBUJA CEMENT 204 232 +13.67 %

2 BOSCH LTD. 18128 20371 +12.37 %

3

ACC 1240 1385 +11.68 %

4 BHARAT PETRO 810 882 +8.82 %

5

BHEL 106 115 +8.81 %

6 ULTRATECH CEM 2989 3214 +7.51 %

7

INFOSYS 1134 1215 +7.11 %

8 GRASIM INDUS. 3550 3790 +6.74 %

9

TCS 2329 2483 +6.60 %

10 HINDALCO INDUS. 83 89 +6.08 %

11

SBI 185 195 +5.67 %

12 IDEA CELLULAR 99 104 +5.55 %

13

TATA POWER CO. 58 62 +5.53 %

14 GAIL LTD. 340 359 +5.52 %

15

VEDANTA 88 92 +5.28 %


8/18

NSE - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS

TOP NEWS OF THE WEEK

Call drop case: TRAI to comply with Supreme Court order - The Telecom

Regulatory of Authority of India , reportedly, said it will comply with Supreme Court

order asking to consider the amendment of penalty based on technical aspects of call

drops. TRAI Chairman RS Sharma said, "Whatever has been ordered by the Supreme

Court shall be complied with." Supreme Court on March 17 asked TRAI to review call

drop penalty regulation in view of technical issues. The apex court has asked the

regulatory body to base their stand considering the papers dealing with technical aspects

of call drops.

India must move to a lower interest rate regime: Arun Jaitley - Finance Minister

Arun Jaitley defended the move to cut interest rates on small saving schemes saying that

the country has to move to a lower interest rate regime to steer the economy towards a

more efficient path of growth. In the direction that the economy is following, there cannot

be a situation where the bank lending rates have to come down but the deposit rates are

high. They both are linked,” Jaitley said at a press conference in New Delhi.

WPI down for 18th consecutive month, Fed maintains status quo - The Indian equity

markets just about managed to extend its winning streak to the third consecutive week.

Hopes of interest rate cut by the RBI in its next meet, rising crude oil price and decision

of Fed to keep interest rates unchanged brought some cheer on the bourses. Fed scaled

down its forecast for the number of rate increases to two in 2016 from an earlier

projection of four. Spurt in crude oil prices which rose above US$40 per barrel for the

first time since Dec. 3 enthused the participants too. Expectations are major producers

will announce an output freeze on April 17 in Doha. The Indian currency continued to

show strength against the US Dollar. It was down by 0.7% during the week. Wholesale

prices fell for the 16th straight month in February, with WPI declining 0.91% compared

with a 2.61% fall in the corresponding period of the previous year.

World is facing increasingly dangerous situation - Raghuram Rajan - RBI Governor

Raghuram Rajan said the world is facing increasingly dangerous situation and a new

international agreement on the lines of Bretton Woods is needed to prevent central banks.

We will eventually require a new international agreement along the lines of Bretton

Woods, and some reinterpretation of the mandates of internationally influential central

banks, Rajan said. Rajan added that central banks in developed countries find all sorts of

ways to justify their policies , We can pretend all is well with the global monetary non-


9/18

system and hope that nothing goes spectacularly wrong, Rajan said.

Indian economic growth expected to improve to 7.7% in FY17: ICRA - The fresh

project pipeline appears robust, commencement of work will lag announcements, given

moderate capacity utilization in some sectors. A sizeable portion of the planned rise of

Rs. 1.2 trillion in Central Plan Outlay in 2016-17 is to be funded through extra-budgetary

sources, progress on which will influence the pace of infrastructure augmentation and

economic growth. In ICRAs view, Indian economic growth is expected to improve to

7.7% in FY17.

GST to push India's economic growth rapidly: Vijay Kelkar - The introduction of

Goods and Services Tax is an important reform which will lead India into next rapid

phase of economic growth, said former chairman of 13th Finance Commission Vijay

Kelkar. "The most important reform will be GST which will bring this country as one

market. Launching of GST has taken us into next very rapid phase of growth," Kelkar,

said. The major central and state taxes will get subsumed into GST which which will

reduce the multiplicity of taxes, bringing down the compliance cost. With GST, the

burden of Central sales tax will also be phased out.

Government looks to tap idle cash of PSUs - The government has begun a mega

exercise to get public sector companies to buy back their shares and take a slice of the

estimated Rs 2.6 lakh crore lying idle with them. Although the move is meant for the

government to raise more resources, one of the objectives is to get state-run companies,

including unlisted ones, to leverage their balance sheets better and raise more loans from

the market. While a list of companies is being prepared based on their capital expenditure

plans, sources said the focus is on companies which are just sitting on a cash pile. In

addition, companies which have high cash and low debt are the other focus area. "Some

of our PSUs have traditionally been conservative and have not relied much on market

borrowings. But, greater market borrowings also increase scrutiny , which is often

desirable," said an officials.

Performance of Non-Govt Non-Banking Financial and Investment Companies,

2014-15: RBI - The Reserve Bank of India released the data related to the performance of

Non-Government Non-banking Financial and Investment companies for 2014-15. The

data have been compiled based on audited annual accounts data of 23,293 companies.

data pertaining to 22,899 companies are based on Ministry of Corporate Affairs systems ,

data for 363 companies are as collated by Department of Statistics and Information

Management, Reserve Bank of India,while the data for the remaining 31 companies are

obtained from Capitaline Plus data Services, which closed their accounts during the

period April 2014 to 2015. The data draw a comparative picture over the three years period 2012-13 to 2014-15 based on a common set of companies. Explanatory notes


10/18

pertaining to statements are given at the end. According to the provisional estimate of

population paid-up capital supplied by MCA, GoI, the select 23,293 NGNBF&I

companies accounted for 77.8 per cent of all NGNBF&I companies as on March 31,

2015.

RBI to cut rates by 25 bps on Apr 5, 50 bps in FY17: BofA-ML - Reserve Bank is

likely to go for a 50 basis points rate cut next fiscal year and out of this 25 bps cut may be

affected in the policy review meet next month amid slackening economic recovery, says a

report. The financial services major said it estimated that old GDP growth slipped to 4.6

per cent in the December quarter, well below our calculated 7-7.5 per cent potential. Our

lead industrial indicator is slipping as industrial production contracted for three

consecutive months through January.Declining inflation and negative industrial outlook

have strengthened a case for RBI cutting interest rate in its first bi-monthly monetary

policy for 2016-17 on April 5.

FM Jaitley: interest rates in India are "extraordinarily" high - Finance Minister Arun

Jaitley stated that the interest rates in India are "extraordinarily" high, as per media

reports. Jaitley reportedly said that the existing tax-free interest rate of up to 8.7 per cent

on small saving instruments translates into an effective interest of 12-13 per cent on

deposits The government had announced cut in interest rate on PPF to 8.1%.

TOP ECONOMY NEWS

India's foreign exchange reserves surged by $2.54 bn to $353.40 billion , according to

RBI.

RBI said that the foreign currency assets stood at $329.99 billion on March 11.

Foreign Investment Promotion Board out of 33 foreign investments proposals received

gave a nod to 15 FDI proposals worth Rs. 7,261.6 crore on March 7.

A Parliamentary panel has recommended framing an "equitable and pragmatic" National

Tobacco Control Policy so various organs of government can work in tandem and

tobacco production can be brought under a regulatory regime.

The pharmaceutical manufacturers in South India are approaching the Madras High court

against the Union Health Ministry's ban of 344 fixed-dose combination drugs.


11/18

Aiming to re-position itself as an investor friendly state, Odisha approved investment

proposals to the tune of Rs 475bn.The nod was given to 35 proposals spanning a cross

section of industries such as power, aluminum, steel, cement, food processing, textiles,

plastics, healthcare, paper, logistics, and LPG bottling.

India's current account deficit, the excess of imports over exports, fell further to 1.3% of

the gross domestic product due to benefits of lower commodity prices, but the fall in

remittances from overseas Indians has restricted the improvement in balance of payments.

Reserve Bank of India data showed current account deficit at $7.1 billion in the third

quarter ending December, lower than $8.7 billion or 1.7% of GDP in the preceding

quarter.

The government has provided a ray of hope to the financial instruments, after the

government clarified the tax provisions relating to the convertible debentures. The

government has finally addressed the void that had discouraged several companies from

using them to raise capital. As per new scheme, while calculation the holding period, the

government will treat both bonds and debentures as single security without considering

the conversion date. This decision could make investors eligible for long-term capital

gains tax exemption.

Finance Minister Arun Jaitley denied any rift with the Reserve Bank, Jaitley said that hehas a good professional relation with Reserve Bank Governor Raghuram Rajan, He said, I

think India by and large loves conspiracy theories. The RBI is an experienced institution.

After all, the RBI has no particular interest in keeping rates high, Jaitley said.

Department of Telecom is looking to commence the auction for spectrum, including in

700 Mhz band, around mid-July, which may fetch the government a whopping Rs. 5.36

trillion.

Indian refineries are on track to meet the strict timeline for supplying superior quality and

less polluting petrol and diesel confirming to Euro-VI norms by April 2020, IOC Director

said.

India's Defence Procurement Policy would be launched online during Defence Expo

India-2016, Defence Minister said.


12/18

EPFO will park more funds in public sector bonds to boost government's infrastructure

development programmes and continue to invest in equities, Union Labour Minister said.

Foreign investments in the domestic economy is set to recover going ahead if one were

to go by the official data on balance of payment released on Monday. Net foreign

investment, which include both portfolio flows as well as direct investment, picked up

pace during the December quarter and rose to $10.6 billion, after moderating to $3.2

billion in the September quarter. The spike was largely led by a rise in foreign direct

investment.

TOP CORPORATE NEWS -

Indian Oil has signed an agreement with 3M India for setting up 3M auto care centres at

IndianOil outlets.

Glenmark Pharmaceuticals has received tentative approval from the US health

regulator for its generic version of Vimpat Oral Solution, used in treatment of epilepsy.

Tata Consultancy Services announced that the Million Women Mentors program had

reached two-thirds of its goal of 1,00,000 pledges from STEM mentors for young women

and minorities.

Pharmaceutical major Pfizer Ltd. appointed S Sridhar as its new Managing Director with

immediate effect for a period of five years.

Piramal Enterprises Ltd has informed BSE that at the Meeting of Committee of

Directors held on March 18, 2016, the Committee approved the issue of unsecured non-

convertible debentures aggregating upto Rs. 100 crores on a private placement basis.

Godrej Properties Ltd. one of India's leading real estate developers, has created a

dedicated real estate funds management business in India and Singapore – Godrej Fund

Management.

Indiabulls Housing Finance will raise Rs 5,100 million by issuing non-convertible

debentures through private placement.

SKS Microfinance has raised Rs 5,381 million through a securitization deal which is the


13/18

seventh such transaction in 2015-16.

ITC Ltd. sales of its instant noodles brand Yippee are recovering and its market share

has risen to anywhere between 30 and 40 per cent, according to the company.

Tata Steel is in discussion with foreign companies for investments up to Rs 200 billion in

heavy industries over the next five years at its Special Economic Zone project at

Gopalpur in Odisha.

Coal India Ltd. supplied 370.80 million tonnes of fuel to the power sector during April-

February this fiscal, higher by 6.4% than that in the same period last year.

Bharti Airtel announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement with American

Tower Corporation , through its subsidiary company, Airtel Tanzania Limited, for the

sale of approximately 1,350 of its communications towers in Tanzania.

NTPC Ltd. has informed BSE that the Unit-I of 250 MW of Nabinagar Thermal Power

Station of Bhartiya Rail Bijlee Company Limited A subsidiary Company of NTPC Ltd.

has been commissioned on March 20, 2016.

KPIT Technologies hosted the prestigious Industrial Liaison Program with

Massachusetts Institute of Technology , 2016 MIT Innovation for an Emerging India

Workshop, at the KPIT campus in Pune.

Non-banking finance company SKS Microfinance completed its seventh securitization

transaction during FY16 for a pool value of Rs. 538.11 crore.

Nava Bharat Ventures entered into an arrangement with Tata Power Trading Company

Limited for supply of power to Telangana State Power Distribution Companies back to

back from May 27, 2016 to May 25, 2017. Va Tech Wabag has won orders worth Rs5000 crore in FY 2016. This is the highest order intake clocked by the Group in a single

financial year.

Jet Airways, India premier international airline, is set to launch daily non-stop flights

from India to Amsterdam resulting in significantly enhanced connectivity between India,

Europe and North America.


14/18

The board of directors of Tata Steel is expected to meet on March 29 in to discuss

whether to retain or sell the plants in Scunthorpe and Port Talbot, in UK.

Tata Motors announced that it has signed a follow-on contract for the supply of an

additional 619 units, of its high-mobility 6X6 multi-axle truck, with the Indian Army.

Coal India will conduct a two-day special e-auction beginning March 30 to offer the

fossil fuel to distressed power plants as part of government's efforts to ensure 24x7

affordable electricity to all.

Sterlite Technologies is among the early companies to have bagged a smart city project.

Sterlite, said senior official of the company, has bagged contract from Gandhinagar.

The fourth unit of NTPC-Bihar government owned 195-Mw Muzaffarpur Thermal Power

Station has been successfully synchronised with the national grid, an official said.

Russian government has approved ONGC Videsh Ltd's deal to buy 15% in the country's

second biggest oil field of Vankor from Rosneft for US$ 1.3billion.

BHEL said it has commissioned a 600 MW coal-based unit at Singareni Thermal Power

Project in Adilabad district of Telangana.

TOP BANKING AND FINANCIAL NEWS OF THE WEEK

Axis Bank , India's third largest private sector lender, has provided seed funding of Rs 10

lakh to the students of Indian Institute of Foreign Trade, the winners of the inter-campus

online gamified competition 'Axis Moves' it has launched in leading B-schools in a bid to

bolster entrepreneurship across the country.

State Bank of India Ltd. has raised Rs 30 billion on a private placement basis by issuing

30,000 Basel-III compliant, tier-ll bonds in the nature of debentures.

FIPB approved the proposal of Yes Bank Ltd. to increase its foreign investment limit to

74 per cent from present 41% making it the first bank to get approval for hiking FDI limit

after the new regulations were announced in November.

State Bank of India, the nation's largest lender, is also the leader in digital banking in the

country in both volume and value terms, handling over 38 per cent mobile banking


15/18

transactions a month.

The Finance Ministry held a meeting on Monday with senior officials of public sector

banks to review their efforts for loan recovery, including from Kingfisher Airlines.

Mobile banking penetration in India is concentrated among customers of five banks.

According to data released by the Reserve Bank of India, the top five banks account for

more than 92% of the entire value of mobile banking transactions in the country.

Enforcement Directorate has questioned IDBI bank officials, including its former CMD,

in connection with its money laundering probe in the over Rs 900 crore alleged loan fraud

involving the bank and Kingfisher Airlines.

Public sector lender Oriental Bank of Commerce today said it has cut interest rates for

deposits less than Rs 1 crore across maturities in a range of 0.25 to 0.5 per cent with

effect from Monday.

Kerala-based private sector lender Federal Bank is opening incubation centres for

startups in Bangalore and Ernakulam. These specialised lounges in the bank's branches

will offer advice on capital, regulatory support and even disburse funds.

The 26 nationalised banks, which are expecting a Rs 25,000 crore government bailout in

the coming financial year have lost at least Rs 30,873.86 crore to frauds in four years -

2011-12 to 2014-15. According to documents accessed from the Ministry of Finance,

these losses are only due to frauds of Rs 1 lakh or more. Some of these cases are being

probed by investigating agencies.


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Equity Research Report 29 March 2016 Ways2Capital

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Transcript of Equity Research Report 29 March 2016 Ways2Capital