Epic Research Daily Agri Report 29JAN 2016
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Transcript of Epic Research Daily Agri Report 29JAN 2016
7/25/2019 Epic Research Daily Agri Report 29JAN 2016
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DAILY AGRI COMMODITY REPORT
29 January 2016
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Market Views
2
MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL
TURMERIC
APR 8020 8360 8004 8100 -1.27 10905
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
7949
SUPP. 2
7799
PIVOT
8155
Turmeric short term
trend is bearish and
May continue in
coming days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
8305
RES. 2
8511
CORIANDER
APR 6105 6405 6105 6275 -0.82 4790
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP.1
6118
SUPP. 2
5962
PIVOT
6262
Coriander short term
trend is bearish and May
continue in coming
days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
6418
RES. 2
6562
GUARGUM
FEB 5790 5900 5760 5850 +0.34 12323
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
5773
SUPP. 2
5697
PIVOT
5837
Guargum short term
trend is bearish and
May continue in
coming days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
5913
RES. 2
5977
CASTORSEED
FEB - - - - - -
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
-
SUPP. 2
-
PIVOT
--
RESISTANCE
RES. 1
-
RES. 2
-
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Most Active Contract
3
NCDEX INDICES
Index ValuePre.
Close
%
Change
CASTORSEED - - -
CHANA 4242 4255 -0.35
CORIANDER 6275 6327 -0.82
GUARGUM 5850 5830 +20
JEERA 13480 13335 +1.09
MUSTARD
SEED3883 3865 +0.47
SOYABEAN 3794 3720 +1.99
TURMERIC 8100 8204 -1.27
TOP LOSERS
SYMBOL EXPIRY DATECURRENT
PRICE CHANGECHANGE
%
CHANA 20-04-2016 4243.00 -17.00 -0.40%
BARLEY 20-04-2016 1417.00 -5.50 -0.39%
TURMERIC 20-04-2016 8160.00 -30.00 -0.37%
CORIANDER 20-04-2016 6311.00 -23.00 -0.36%
TOP GAINERS
SYMBOL EXPIRY DATECURRENT
PRICECHANGE CHANGE %
SOYABEAN 19-02-2016 3794.00 75.00 2.02%
JEERA 18-03-2016 13500.00 190.00 1.43%
COTTON SEED OIL CAKE
AKOLA19-02-2016 2019.00 21.00 1.05%
RAPESEED-MUSTARD
SEED20-04-2016 3888.00 33.00 0.86%
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Commodities In News
4
ECONOMIC NEWS
India's mustard output is expected to grow for the first time in three years
this season, government estimates show, as falling temperatures, light rains
and the absence of crop-damaging frost raise farmers' hopes after two years
of drought.Early projections by the six biggest producing states, which
account for more than 80 per cent of the oilseed's output, indicate a gain of
about 15 per cent in output. That is not, however, expected to eat into
India's vegetable oil imports, which will continue to rise as the population
expands.Edible oil traders have been awaiting for news on India's output of
mustard - also loosely referred to as rapeseed by the government - to better
asses near-term demand, particularly after a warmer-than-average start to
the winter season had delayed sowing and threatened output.Indian futures
of mustard or rapeseed fell on Monday to their lowest level in nearly nine
months on prospects of a bumper harvest.Already, flowering of mustard is
up by 10-15 per cent this year from last year, according to the SolventExtractors' Association of India."The mustard crop is likely to turn out well
if there is no frost in the next 10 to 15 days," said Inderjeet Singh, a farmer
from Rajasthan, India's top mustard producing state.The western state's
output could rise 21.4 per cent to 3.5 million tonnes in the planting season
that began on Oct. 1, up from a low base the previous year when hail and
rains damaged crops.Production for other main states such as Haryana,
Uttar Pradesh and Punjab are likely to grow 7-32 per cent, according to
estimates from their agriculture departments.Central India's Madhya
Pradesh, however, is predicting a 6 per cent fall as farmers in many of its
districts delayed sowing due to a lack of soil moisture.Drought causedIndia's 2014/15 mustard production to fall 23 per cent to 5 million tonnes.
This year's estimate from the top producing states alone is 6.17
million.Despite the higher mustard output, India's imports of vegetable oils
are still expected to rise.The world's biggest importer of vegetable oils
spends more than $10 billion a year on such purchases. This year the
imports may rise as much as 11 per cent to a record 16 million tonnes in the
2015/16 marketing year that started on Nov. 1, according to estimates from
a Mumbai trade body.The table below gives the estimated production of six
Indian states in tonnes.
Jeera settled up on short covering after prices dropped due to ample
stocks position following higher supply in the physical market. Further,
bumper crop this year due to good weather conditions across Gujarat
and Rajasthan limited the upside. Good weather conditions across
Gujarat and Rajasthan may help in bumper crop this year. Limited
buying by stockists and traders at higher levels also weighs on prices.Gujarat, the top cumin producing state, has planted more cumin
until Jan 18, 2016 compared to last year sowing progress. In Gujarat,
jeera is planted about 10.7% more area at 2,95,200 hectares compared
to 2,66,700 hectares last year same time. As per data, arrivals of Jeera
in Gujarat markets for the calendar year 2015 is lower by 231 % at
about 1.28 lt compared to 4.25 lt last year.According to Dept of
Commerce data, the export of jeera during first 6 month of 2015-16
(Apr-Sep) is 44,140 tonnes, which is, lower as compared to last year
same period. Jeera (cumin) exports have been 1.55 lt in 2014-15.According to govt data, exports for 2015-16 shows a decline trend
compared to last year until September.
Mustard Seed settled up on late short covering after prices dropped
earlier on oversupply woes in domestic and international market and on
weak demand in export market. Prices of rm seed were also down as
rapeseed meal export is reduced to 1/3rd of last year. Prices of mustard
seed were also under pressure as the government of Rajasthan, India's
biggest rm seed producer, has raised its mustard seed production
estimate to 3.5 million ton compared to 2.9 million ton in lastseason.According to latest USDA report, global rapeseed production is
projected at 67.7 million tons, up 180,000 tons compared to last
month's forecast. Canada rapeseed production is raised 1.7 million tons
to 17.2 million tons. China rapeseed imports for 2015/16 may decline
to 4.25 million tons from 4.59 million tons. Rapeseed meal exports
from India slumped 87% on year to 16,855 tons in December on weak
demand from South Korea and Thailand, data released from Solvent
ExtractorsAssociation of India (SEA) showed.
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5
Fundamental Watch : Castorseed
CASTORSEED PRICES AT KEY SPOT
MARKETNational Market Update
Yellow flowering in castor plants in Mahesana, Banskatha and other regions
have been reported by farmers and it may reduce normal yield expectation by
10 to 15 % in five to six districts and resultantly the crop size would reduce by50,000 thousand tonne in that particular area. If weather turns rough castor
price may firms up in the season once again. Hailstorm, heavy rains and
higher than normal temperature too may damage castor yield. However, at
current condition market is likely to trade bearish. Stake holders must keep
eye on any possible weather change.
Castor oil from India decreases by 39.22 % to 4026.41tonne during the week
ended 25th Jan-2016. Average FoB quote realized during the week is lower by
4.01% from previous week at $1258.49 per tonne. The gap between the
highest and the lowest quotes is higher by $700 per tonne.
As Per Gujarat Agriculture Directorate latest update castor seed production
in Gujarat may decrease by 13 % this year to 12.66 lakh tonne. Gujarat had
produced 14.56 lakh tonne seed last year. It is second advance estimate by agri
state directorate. In first adv estimate production were pegged at14.68 lakh
tonne. Lower production estimate may hamper declining trend in seed price.
Agriculture statistics Division, DES has released its 1st Adv estimates of
Production of food-grains for 2015-16 on 16.09.2015.It has estimated 19.44
lakh tonne seed production this year. The production target for 2015-16 has
been fixed at 20.34 lakh ton. India has produced 19.63 lakh tonne castor seed
in 2014-15 as per revised 1st Adv estimate. Private trade estimate for the year
is much lower and is between 15 to 16 lakh tonne for 2015-16.However,it is
too early to talk about the final size as sowing is just over.
CENTER 28-Jan-15 27-Jan-15 Change
SUMERPUR NA NA -
PATAN 3075 3150 -75
MEHSANA 2975 3200 -225
BHABAR 3035 3100 -65
HARJI 3050 3075 -25
RAJKOT 3005 3175 -170
KADI 3025 3150 -125
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Technical Outlook
6
SELL CORIANDER APR BELOW 6210 TARGET 6165 6015 SL
ABOVE 6275
SELL GUARGUM FEB BELOW 5790 TARGET 5740 5670 SL
ABOVE 5850
SELL TURMERIC APRIL BELOW 8050 TARGET 8006 7946 SL
ABOVE 8110
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