Epic Research Daily Agri Report 27JAN 2016

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DAILY AGRI COMMODITY REPORT

27 January 2016

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1

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Market Views

2

MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL

TURMERIC

APR 8500 8518 8160 8212 -3.16 10500

INTRADAY

LEVELS

SUPPORT SUPP. 1

8075

SUPP. 2

7939

PIVOT

8297

Turmeric short term

trend is bearish and

May continue in

coming days.RESISTAN

CE

RES. 1

8433

RES. 2

8655

CORIANDER

APR 6540 6540 6357 6357 -3.99 6890

INTRADAY

LEVELS

SUPPORT SUPP.1

6296

SUPP. 2

6235

PIVOT

6418

Coriander short term

trend is bearish and May

continue in coming

days.RESISTAN

CE

RES. 1

6479

RES. 2

6601

GUARGUM

FEB 6140 6200 5860 5900 -3.28 15287

INTRADAY

LEVELS

SUPPORT SUPP. 1

5773

SUPP. 2

5647

PIVOT

5987

Guargum short term


May continue in

coming days.RESISTAN

CE

RES. 1

6113

RES. 2

6327

CASTORSEED

FEB 3391 3391 3245 3245 -3.99 94880

INTRADAY

LEVELS

SUPPORT SUPP. 1

3196

SUPP. 2

3148

PIVOT

3294

Castorseed short term


May continue in

coming day.RESISTAN

CE

RES. 1

3342

RES. 2

3440



Most Active Contract

3

NCDEX INDICES

Index ValuePre.

Close

%

Change

CASTORSEED 3245 3380 -3.99

CHANA 4260 4295 -0.81

CORIANDER 6357 6621 -3.99

GUARGUM 5900 6100 -3.28

JEERA 13250 13600 -2.57

MUSTARD

SEED3857 4003 -1.46

SOYABEAN 3734 3798 -1.69

TURMERIC 8212 8480 -3.16

TOP LOSERS

SYMBOL EXPIRY DATECURRENT

PRICE

CHANGECHANGE

%

CORIANDER 20-04-2016 6357.00 -268.00 -4.05%

RAPESEED-MUSTARD

SEED20-04-2016 3857.00 -147.00 -3.67%

CASTOR SEED NEW 19-02-2016 3245.00 -120.00 -3.57%

JEERA 18-03-2016 13250.00 -310.00 -2.29%

COTTON SEED OIL CAKE

AKOLA19-02-2016 2013.00 -25.00 -1.23%

SOYABEAN 19-02-2016 3734.00 -28.00 -0.74%

BARLEY 20-04-2016 1422.50 -6.00 -0.42%

TOP GAINERS

SYMBOL EXPIRY DATECURRENT

PRICECHANGE CHANGE %

CHANA 20-04-2016 4260.00 7.00 0.16%



Commodities In News

4

ECONOMIC NEWS

Warmer winters till mid-January had caused concerns for the rabi crop,

but the return of chill and rains in northern and northeastern parts of the

country have raised hopes for the farm sector.Though the sown area under

rabi crops continued to be less as on Friday as compared to the

corresponding period last year, rains in coming days as predicted by the

India Meteorological Department (IMD) will impact the sowing operation

positively."During the second fortnight of December and by January 10,

the average temperature in some states in north India generally has been 2-

3-degrees celsius more.However, since previous week, the temperature has

been stable. Therefore, the earlier enhanced temperature will not cast any

adverse effect on the crops," the agriculture ministry said in a

statement.According to latest data, released by the ministry, the overall

sown area under rabi crops stands at 589.95 lakh hectares as on January 22

as compared to 607.90 lakh hectares during the corresponding period lastyear.Though areas under wheat, pulses and oilseeds continues to be lower

than last year, the area under coarse grains (jwar, ragi etc.) is higher than

2015.Sowing of oilseeds, primarily mustard, has in fact recovered quite

well in the past week, reducing the gap between the sown area of this year

and the corresponding period last year.

Rabi planting so far this season is 2.85% less than a year ago, but

Agriculture Minister Radha Mohan Singh expects recent rains in central

and parts of east India and a drop in temperature to help keep production

steady.Temperatures in some northern states were 2-3 degrees centigrade

more than normal in the second fortnight of December and until January

10, he said. "However, since last week, this temperature has been stable.

Therefore, the earlier enhanced temperature will not cast any adverse effect

on the crops," he said.Rains have covered parts of Madhya Pradesh,

Chhattisgarh and Eastern Uttar Pradesh. According to the India

Meteorological Department, many of the north and north-eastern parts of

the country are likely to get more showers.As of Friday, rabi sowing area

was 589.95 lakh hectares. Wheat is on 291.97 lakh hectare, 4.46% less

from a year earlier.

Rmseed settled down amid oversupply woes in domestic market. The

government of Rajasthan, India's biggest rm seed producer has raised

its mustard seed production estimate to 3.5 million ton compared to 2.9

million ton in last season. Recently, Mustard oil consumption has fallen

in recent months as prices have increased to higher levels compared to

other edible oil.Area coverage of RM seed this year is higher by about

2 lakh ha compared to corresponding period of Rabi 2014-15 as per

latest government data release. Mustard is planted on 64.8 lakh hectare.

In Rajasthan, 23.7 lh has been sown as on Dec 17, compared to 24.34

lh sown last year same time. On the export front, the shipment of

rapeseed meal exports plunge y/y by more than 61.4 per cent until Nov

to 2.95 lt. According to latest USDA report, Global rapeseed

production is projected at 67.7 mt, up 0.18 mt compared to last month’s

forecast.Canada rapeseed production is raised 1.7 mt to 17.2 mt. China

rapeseed imports for 2015/16 may decline to 4.25 mt from 4.59 mt.

Ref Soya oil settled up tracking firmness in soyabean prices amid

improved demand. As per latest SEA data, edible oils import rose to

14.07 lt in December last year from 11.23 lt in December 2014.

However, imports of non-edible oils fell to 11,467 tonnes from 17,996

tonnes in the year-ago period. Earlier, the Agriculture Ministry has

proposed further hike in import duty of edible oils by 5 per cent in a bid

to protect the interest of farmers, but the decision is still pending.The

Ministry has proposed increase in import duty on crude edible oils to

17.5 per cent and on refined edible oils to 25 per cent from the existinglevel. In order to curb imports and protect domestic oil seeds farmers

and processing mills, the government had in September last year raised

import duty on crude edible oils to 12.5 per cent from 7.5 per cent,

while the duty on refined edible oils was increased to 20 per cent from

15 per cent.Oilmeal exports plummeted 85 per cent to 59,818 tonnes in

December from a year ago on lower soybean crushing due to higher

prices and as cheaper exports from South American rivals flooded

traditional markets, a leading trade body said.



5

Fundamental Watch : Cotton

COTTON PRICES AT KEY SPOT MARKETNational Market Update

According to the latest estimates by Cotton Advisory Board (CAB), India is

likely to export 68 lakh bales of cotton in season 2015-16, around 18% higher

when compared to the exports of previous season which was 57.7 lakh bales.

India exported 1.8 lakh bales of cotton last week (11 Jan-17 Jan 2016),

which was 4.076 lakh bales previous to last week (03 Jan-10 Jan 2016),

according to the data released by IBIS. Imports on the other hand stood 0.93

lakh bales last week, which was 0.069 lakh bales previous to last week.

According to the Cotton Association of India (CAI), cotton arrivals are

standing lower this year as compared to the previous year. CAI said that, as

farmer are holding back their produce in the anticipation of better prices in

future, cotton stocks has not been liquidated in the market resulting in the

lower arrivals.

Cotton Association of India (CAI) has further slashed down the cotton

production estimates for the season 2015-16 to 357 lakh bales. In its October

estimates the association kept the production figures at 370 lakh bales and

later it revised the same to 362 lakh bales in November. According to the latest

estimates the output would be around 357 lakh bales, 25.5 lakh bales or 6%lower when compared to the production figures of previous year which was

382.5 lakh bales.

CENTER 25-Jan-15 23-Jan-15 Change

RAJKOT 4890 4850 +40

BHIWANI 4900 4900 UNCH

ADAMPUR 4750 4765 -15

AHMEDABAD 4825 4800 +25

GONDAL 4820 4840 -20

GUNTUR NA NA -

RAICHUR NA NA -



Technical Outlook

6

SELL CORIANDER APR BELOW 6323 TARGET 6278 6128 SL

ABOVE 6388

SELL GUARGUM FEB BELOW 5860 TARGET 5810 5740 SL

ABOVE 5920

SELL TURMERIC APRIL BELOW 8141 TARGET 8097 8037 SL

ABOVE 8201

SELL CASTORSEED FEB BELOW 3245 TARGET 3220 3190 SL

ABOVE 3270



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Epic Research Daily Agri Report 27JAN 2016

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