Environmental Management

Sustainable Development Practice

in China

• Observation (general situation) • The legal system• Characteristics• From project EIA to Planning EIA• EIA storming

General Situation

• China’s economy was negligible during “Cultural Revolution” so as environmental pollution; It was thought environmental pollution is the result only of capitalism and marketing economy…

• China firstly noted environment in 1972. The next year in Beijing, the 1st national conference on environmental protection was organized. ~~~ the milestone of China in environmental protection, but actions were taken only after 1978;

• Current situation of environmental management– Hierarchy of administration on environmental protection; – Comprehensive legal system with numerous laws, regulations,

provisions, guidelines, standards, and methods …;– Monitoring on air and water quality, and polluting sources;– Annual status report, from central government to large cities;– Standards and monitoring;

• Features– Polluter pays; Three simultaneities; and EIA;– EIA storming, from EIA to PEIA;– Regular measures taken: “close/stop/combine/change/move”,

knocking down stacks, pollution control zones;– Special programs: “Zero Point” actions, “33211” project, “Water”

Projects … • Weak points?

– General weakness, …contradiction between development and environment;

– MoEP is a part of the government;– Who support? … – Public participation, effectiveness of EIA, …unlawful and illegal

activities …

Administration• Two important events happened in 1972:

– China sent a delegation and attended the Stockholm Conference on Human Environment.

– A large number of fishes died in GuanTing Reservoir. There was rumor said due to “class enemy”. Later it was found due to water pollution. A leading panel was set up on water resource protection for the reservoir that was the earliest government unit on environment

• 1973, in State Council, Office of Environmental Protection • 1982, Environmental Protection Bureau, under Ministry of Urban and Rural

Development and Environmental Protection (MURDEP);• 1984, National Environmental Protection Agency (NEPA), under MURDEP; • 1988, State Environmental Protection Administration (SEPA), directly under

State Council;• 2008, Ministry of Environmental Protection

• Corresponding departments are set up in local governments

Laws, regulations, provisions, standards, guidelines, methods, and programs

• 1979-07-01 Administrative Punishment Law (excerpt)• 1982-08-23 Marine Environmental Protection Law• 1982-12-04 Constitution of China (environmental protection provisions)• 1986-03-19 Mineral Resources Law (1996 Revision)• 1986-06-25 Land Management Law (amended in 1998)• 1988-11-08 Wild Animal Protection Law• 1989-12-26 Environmental Protection Law• 1991-06-29 Soil and Water Conservation Law• 1993-07-02 Agriculture Law (excerpt)• 1996-10-29 Law on the prevention and control of environmental noise

pollution• 1999-12-25 Marine Environmental Protection Law (revised)• 2000-03-20 Water Pollution Prevention Law• 2000-04-29 Air Pollution Control Act • 2000-10-31 Fisheries Law• 2001-10-29 Law on management of sea area use

For example, laws:

Continued• 2002-10-01 Water Law• 2002-12-28 Grassland Law • 2002-12-28 Environmental Impact Assessment Law• 2003-06-28 Radioactive pollution prevention and control law• 2003-08-27 Law of Administrative Permission• 2003-12-03 Law of Sand Prevention and Management• 2004-12-29 Solid Waste Pollution Prevention Law• 2005-02-28 Renewable Energy Law• 2006-11-29 Law of Administrative Reconsideration (renewed)• 2006-11-29 Law of Administrative Procedural Law (renewed)• 2006-11-29 Law of Administrative Punishment (renewed)• 2007-10-30 Law of Energy Conservation• 2007-10-31 Law of Urban and Rural Planning• 2008-02-29 Law of Water Pollution Prevention• 2008-09-01 Law of Circular Economy Promotion• 2012-01-01 Law of Administrative Enforcement• 2012-06-07 Law of Clean Production Promotion

Air QualityMonitoring,

daily reporting

by 120 cities

http://datacenter.mep.gov.cn/

• Surface water quality monitoring, weekly report on the web of MoEP

– SongHuaJiang River (松花江流域 )– LiaoHe River (辽河流域 )– HaiHe River (海河流域 )– HuaiHe River (淮河流域 )– HuangHe River (黄河流域 )– ChangJiang River (长江流域 )– ZhuJiang River (珠江流域 )– Rivers in HaiNan Island (海南岛内河流 )– Rivers in ZheJiang and FuJian (浙闽河流 )– Southwest rivers (西南诸河 )– Taihu Lake and rivers (内陆河流太湖流域 )– CaoHu Lake and DianChi Lake (巢湖流域滇池流域 )– Other large lakes (其他大型湖泊 )

• Onsite monitoring for heavy polluting sources are installed and controlled by local EPBs

Features• Three key policies

– Prevention the priori, the measures to eliminate pollution and protect environment should be brought into consideration before the development actions is put into practice;

– Polluters pay principle; and – Strengthening environmental management to

practice harmonic approach of social economic development and environmental sustainability.

• Eight systems were developed in late 1970s for environmental management, when the socialism-planned economy was dominant in the country, in three categories.– Administrative commanding, including “Three synchronous

implementation”, “Responsibility of the environmental protection objects”, “Zero point action” ~ pollutant emission control within prescribed time, “33211” ~ 3 rivers+3 lakes+2 control+1 Bay+ 1 City, and Quantitative examination on comprehensive rectification and harness of the city environment.

– Economic tools, including “Polluters’ pay principles”, and License for pollutant discharge/emission.

– Technological approaches, including “Environmental impact assessment” and “Mass loading control”.

Management programs

Environmental Impact Assessment in China

About EIA

• EIA: Environmental Impact Assessment• EIA is a legal system to incorporate

environmental consideration into decision making. For this reason, EIA is a proactive management strategy. The goal of the system is to prevent significant negative impact caused by any development actions, including project, product, program, plan, policy and even legislative proposal.

Levels of Environmental Assessment

# Project EIA(environmental impact assessment)

# Product EIA (environmental impact assessment)

Program

plan

Policy Strategic environmental Assessment (SEA)

• The “Law of the People’s Republic of China on Environmental impact assessment (EIA)” was approved in Oct. 2002, and put into practice on Sep. 1, 2003.

• The law provides the requirements of EIA for construction projects and plans (including the development plans of land utilization, regional development, river basins, and marine areas, and ten sectoral plans), as shown in the figure.

• The sectoral plans include ten categories of plans e.g. industrial, agricultural, energy, transport, urban construction, natural resource exploitation, etc.

• Construction projects may generate negative impacts to the surrounding (natural and social), so that the main objectives of Project EIA – modify and improve project design;– ensure efficient resource use;– enhance social aspects;– identify key impacts and measures for mitigate them;– inform decision making and condition setting;– avoid serious and irreversible damage to the

environment;– protect human health and safety.

Main contents of a detailed EIA report• Introduction: project description, legal documents, scale and scope,

key factors to be analyzed;• Project analysis: industrial process, material, energy and water

flows, pollutant generation• Analysis on current environmental situation;• Key environmental factor analysis and prediction;

– Methods and models;– Data collection and analysis: natural conditions, pollutant source

(surrounding and the project), ambient environment, social, and economic…;

– Model predictions;• Analysis on proposed countermeasures on pollution control;• Environmental monitoring and management system• Social issues and public participation;• Alternatives for site selection and countermeasures• Conclusion

Legal actions related to EIA• 1972: China attended the Stockholm UN Conference on Human

Environment• 1978: EIA concept was introduced in the report Key Issues in

Environmental Protection by the State Council of China• 1979: EIA for construction project was firstly included in the

Environmental Protection Law of P. R. China (For Trial Implementation)

• 1981: In Regulations on Environmental Protection Management for Infrastructure Construction Projects by the State Council of China, the scope, tasks, and procedure of EIA were described, and with the “Three Simultaneities (design, construction, and evaluation)” principle enhanced EIA regulation.

• 1982: In Law of Infrastructure Construction, EIA regulations were improved;

• 1984: In Law of Water Pollution Prevention and Control, aquatic environmental impact assessment was juristically emphasized.

• 1986: Regulations on Environmental Protection Management for Infrastructure Construction Projects revised; Regulations on Environmental Protection Management for Construction Projects was issued, extended EIA requirements to all construction projects with environmental impacts; Regulations on EIA Practitioner Qualification was designed; EIA for economy open areas required in Provisional Regulations on Environmental Management for Economically Open Areas.

• 1987: In Law of Air Pollution Prevention and Control, atmospheric environmental impact assessment was juristically emphasized

• 1988: Comments on Construction Project Environmental Management and Regulations on Environmental Protection Design for Construction Projects were issued.

• 1989: In Law of Environmental Protection EIA system was juristically included; Principles and Methods for Making Charge Standards for Construction Project EIAs was issued and Regulations on EIA Practitioner Qualification was improved.

• 1990: Procedure of Construction Project Environmental Protection Management was issued.

• 1993: In On Improving Environmental Management for Construction Projects by NEPA, REIA (regional EIA) for economic development zones was officially required.

• 1994: Technical Guidelines for Environmental Impact Assessment was issued by NEPA

• 1995: China’s 21st Century Agenda, EIA concept, theory, and REIA• 1996: Law of Solid Waste Environmental Pollution Prevention and

Control, EIA for solid waste• 1998: Regulations on Construction Project Environmental

Protection Management promulgated by State Council;• 1999: Classification of Construction Project Environmental

Protection Management was issued by SEPA• 2002: Law of Environmental Impact Assessment enforced on Sept 1,

2003, Plan EIA (PEIA) was included• 2003: Technical Guidelines for Environmental Impact Assessment”:

General Guidelines; Technical Guidelines for Plan Environmental Impact Assessment (On trial) were issued.

• 2009: Regulations on Plan Environmental Impact Assessment, approved by the State Council of China

EIA Storms 2005-2009

However, EIA does not solve all problems. Therefore there were:

EIA Storms• 2005: Jan 18, 30 large scale construction projects were suspended.

Almost all were power stations with billions RMB investments, distributed in 13 provinces, including a hydraulic power station on JinSha River.

• 2006: Feb 7， SEPA ordered environmental inspection for 11 petrochemical enterprises located along large rivers; environmental risk analysis for 127 projects, and suspended 10 projects.

• 2007: Jan 10 regional suspension of EIA approvals, “regional controls”, involving Hebei's Tangshan, Shanxi's Luliang, Guizhou's Liupanshui, and Shandong's Laiwu cities; and industrial groups such as large power firms Da Tang International, Huaneng Power International, China Huadian, and China Guodian Corporation, steel and iron, electricity, and metallurgy.

• 2007: July 3, In view of the severe water pollution, SEPA ordered “basin suspension” of EIA approvals for the development projects of six cities, 2 counties and 5 industrial gardens in the basins of Changjiang River, Yellow River, Huai River, and Hai River.

• 2009: June 11, Ludila hydraulic power station of Huadian and Longkaikou hydraulic power station of Huaneng were suspended.

Observation:

• EIA is the most important tool to regulate economic development; and the most important measure for MoEP to implement its duty

• However, conflicts exists between environmental protection and development

• What can we do the next?

• Implement PEIA• Promote “Ecological Civilization”

• 2009: Regulations on Plan Environmental Impact Assessment, approved by the State Council– For plans: Land use plans, development plans for regions, basins, and

coastal sea areas, and sectoral plans for industry, agriculture, stock raising, forestation, energy, irrigation, transportation, city infrastructure, tourism, and natural resource etc.

– made by: state departments, governments and departments of cities administrating prefectures

– to assess:• Integrated impacts on the ecological system of the region, basin and coastal

sea areas;• Long-term impacts on the environment and human health;• Relationship of economic, social and environmental benefits, and the

relationship of short-term and long-term benefits.

3 PEIA

From Project EIA to SEA, or PEIA

In Law of Environmental Impact Assessment, plan EIAs are required for city master plan, and various sectoral plans

Construction Project EIA

Regional Development

Zone EIA

Strategic EIA but currently PEIA, including

city master planand Sectoral plans

Environmental Impact Assessment for Mid and Long Term Development Plan of Petroleum Chemical Industry at Guangxi Coastal Area

Case Study:

background• Petroleum industry development offers a good opportunity for the

development in Guangxi. In the plan, not only the coastal cities are involved, but also three inland cities: Baise, Hechi, and Liuzhou.

• Petroleum industry induces threats to the environment and ecological system, and the natural conditions are somewhat vulnerable.

• PEIA is therefore important to identify and analyze the impacts, and recommend alternative designs/arrangements (schemes) of the plan.

• This PEIA is highlighted by MoEP. The draft report is under reviewing procedure.

Plan DescriptionBased on 20 million tons of raw oil processing (2 phases), to

establish a series of projects, including 44 key projects and many more related projects:– 1.2 million tons ethylene production– 0.3 millions tons polyethylene production– 0.6 million tons polypropylene production– 0.6 million tons styrene– 0.2 million tons acetic acid– 0.1 million tons acetic ester– 0.2 million tons acetic ethylene– 0.1 million tons EVA and 0.05 million tons VAE– 0.07 million tons polyethylene alcohol– 0.75 million tons PTA– ……

Period: from 2006 to 2020, in two phases

Location:The cities and industrial parks involved

Beibu Gulf

This is Guangxi

This is the basic scheme (arrangement), park / cities

Features of PEIA• Large scale:

– Large city, province, basin, …– Long time period

• Complicated– Environment /economy / social ..– Consistency with other plans, policies

• Highly uncertain– Plan > schemes/scenarios > projects – Source strengths unknown, distribution uncertain

• Risk analysis– Dependence on source and receptor distribution so as on

schemes

Level

Logic frameworkReference Analysis Objectives

E. Saving & P. ReducPetro. Industry Strate.

Ind. chain &production

City develop. planCarrying capacity

Industry plan

Plan arrangement

State

Province

City

Indus. park

Park dev. objectives Industry/arrangement

Infrastructure condition env. sensible issues

Key proj. site

Policies/Petro industry plan

Scale reasoning

How to develop better ?

Develop. acceptable

?

Objectives of this work

Assessment Road MapWork Plan

Current Status Design scenario PlansPlan Analysis

Evaluation Indicator System

Impact Predict. & Assessment

Base scheme assessment

Circular

economy

Social &

economic

impacts

Public participation

Environm

ent &

resource impact

Environm

ental risk assessm

ent

Comparison and optimization

ConclusionRecommendations to basic scenarioMeasure to mitigate impacts

BackgroundAssessment objectives and scopeLegislative issuesMethodsKey issuesPetroleum industry development in China

Environment and development in target regionGuangxi ProvinceRelevant citiesRelevant industrial parks

Limitingfactors

2 levels: cities / parks5 views: plan consist.; resource; envir. Capacity & mass loading requirement; industry basis; natural & geo. conditions

1. Perform production chain analysis, with processes and current situation, 63 schemes were designed

2. Based on principles on product integrity, local product chain, plan consistency, resource limiting, pollutant mass loading etc., 9 schemes were selected including a basic scheme.

With plan descriptionEnvironmental reasonability / feasibilityConsistency with State/Province/City/parkEnv. Impact identification, pol. src analysis

Clean production indicatorsNational eco-ind. park indicatorsEuro. Ind. Sustain. Dev. IndicatorsInt. well-known Comp. Env. IndicatorsRecommended indicators by EIA guidelinesEco-city/county/district indicatorsScope: 6 ind. parks & surroundings, city /

provinceSectors: air, water, ecology, solid waste, resourceSubjects: present status, basic scheme, alternative schemesMethods: quantitative & qualitativeKey issues: Beibu Gulf, marine environ. / ecology

Subject: Social/Econ. Inf. to province, sustainability, policyMethods: investment – benefit analysis, mainly qualitativeCost analysis: market risk, opportunity cost

Methods: questionnaire/interview, internet, poster, meetingTarget group: officers, planners, general public in plan/assessment Areas

Scope: 6 ind. parks, surrounding 10km, road, sea routeSubjects: risk source, sensible targets, comparison between basic and alternative schemesMethods: qualitative and semi-quantitative

Circular economy capacity analysis for basic and alternative schemesMethod: indicatorIndicators: economic, energy, resource utilization

Plan reasonabilityPlan consistencyAcceptability of plan implementation impactsPublic opinion

Comparison based on: Plan reasonability Plan consistency Acceptability of plan impacts Public opinionOrdering of the 9 schemes

Key issues• Method:

– Regular method to the projects with clear descriptions– Design schemes (scenario) for those with uncertain descriptions,

consider environmental/resource limiting factors for scheme optimization• Analysis:

– Plan reasonability analysis: industry policy, project arrangement, site selection, plan consistency, environmental functioning, environmental infrastructure, environmental capacity, clean production and circular economy etc.;

– Environmental Assessment: identify, predict, and assess environmental impacts respect to air, water, coastal marine and ecologic system, risk analysis and limiting conditions. Consider optimization, mitigation measures.

• Subjects:– Current situation assessment and limiting factor analysis– Plan consistency analysis– Environmental and resource impact analysis – Risk analysis and emergency response suggestions– Scheme design, screening comparison and selection

(63 schemes 9 schemes)

(1) Comparative assessment of 6 industrial parks

parkPlan

compatibility

（ 0.10 ）Environment

quality(0.20)

Environment capacity

(0.30)

Infrastruc- ture

(0.15)

Other major factors(0.25)

Total

Hechi 5 5 5 3 6 4.95

Liuzhou 5 5 5 3 6 4.95

Baise 5 5 3 1 4 3.55

Nanning 5 3 3 3 4 3.45

Beihai 5 3 1 5 4 3.15

Qinzhou 6 5 3 5 3 4.10

Result: Suitable: Liuzhou (4.95) and Hechi (4.95); moderate: Qinzhou (4.10) and Baise (3.55) Unlikely: Nanning (3.45), Beihai (3.15)

(2) Plan consistency analysis

Plans Weight Restricted points in the plan Consistency

National Industry Policy 60.8 million tons/a coke project is

under restrictionConfliction

National oil refinery development plan and

ethylene industry development plan

3Distributed arrangement of the current plan

some what conflict with the collective principle of the national plan

Some confliction

11th Five-Year Environmental Protection

Plan of Guangxi3

Vulnerable coastal areas locate at Beihai, Qinzhou, and Fangchenggang.

Sensitive areas near planned project sites

Natural Preservation Plan of Guangxi

6At Beihai, there are 2 national level protection areas and 4 provincial level protection areas

Some environmental sensitive sites

Marine environmental function of Guangxi

6

Beihai harbor is located in a area of high marine water quality requirement. Also with

Qinzhou, the harbors are located in 2nd category water quality aquatic environment

Wastewater discharge should meet high quality requirement

11th Five-Year Industry Development Plan of

Guangxi1

Hechi 2.5 million tons raw oil processing, Beihai 2 million tons oil refinery, and Biehai

1 million tons ethylene projectsConfliction

Energy saving and pollutant emission reduction plans

6 Check major requirementsWatch energy saving and

pollutant generation in the plan

(3) Scheme design and screening

• Based on production chain analysis and similar project combining principle, and the existing arrangement, 63 schemes were designed.

• Based on product grouping, linking of the local industry, consistency, resource limiting, and mass loading requirement, 6 schemes emerged after screening. With the basic scheme and two collective schemes, 9 schemes were selcted for analysis.

Nine Schemes after screening

Scheme 2 Scheme 5 Scheme 19

Scheme 21 Scheme 22 Scheme 24

Original Scheme Scheme 27 Scheme 28

Atmospheric environment:– SO2 and HCs– Annual average concentration distribution prediction by modeling– Pollutant emission source strength estimate and mass loading requirement– Comments on acid rain situation– Analysis of these factors for the schemes

Marine (coastal) environment:– COD and oil– Concentration distribution prediction by POM modeling – Pollutant emission source strength estimate and mass loading requirement– Result analysis for the schemes

Water environment:– Waste water and COD– Sewage network and waste water treatment plants– Impact on surface waters at the cities– Pollutant emission source strength estimate and mass loading requirement– Analysis and comparison between the schemes

Solid waste:– Domestic, industrial, and hazardous– Generation, management and disposal– Treatment infrastructure – Comparison between different schemes

Environmental Analysis

Sample figures of annual SO2 concentration distribution

Sample coastal marine modeling

108.2 108.3 108.4 108.5 108.6 108.7 108.8 108.9 109

21.6

21.7

21.8

21.9

&防城港 钦州港示意图

109.3 109.4 109.5 109.6 109.7 109.8 109.9

21.4

21.5

21.6

21.7

铁山港海域示意图For Qinzhou For Beihai

Ecological analysis:– Land use type, biodiversity, forest cover, sensible sites, petroleum-specific

vulnerability– Current situation, sensible sites, vulnerability– Alternative schemes

Resource analysis:• Current situation inventory, carrying capacity analysis, prediction based on

schemes; • Water

– Water supply and demand – Water consumption efficiency– Requirement and attainment measures

• Energy– Energy supply and demand – Energy consumption efficiency– Energy saving objectives and attainment measures

Ecological analysis: current situation

Ecological impact based on schemes

生态环境影响情况图

0. 08

0. 170. 12

0. 04 0. 06

0. 17

0. 02 0. 03

0. 33

0. 000. 050. 100. 150. 200. 250. 300. 35

2方案 5方案 19方案 21方案 22方案 24方案 27方案 28方案 26基础No1 No5 No19 No21 No22 No24 No27 No28 Basic

Impact on ecological system

The Schemes in which ecological sensitive projects are put to less sensitive cities are highly scored and recommended.

Water supply and demand

Region Province Qinzhou Beihai Nanning Liuzhou Hechi BaiseMaximum

Water demand of

original scheme

(×109m3)

23 16.5 3.9 0.58 1.6 1.9

Water supply amount in

2010(×109m3)380 22.3 15.7 33.7 30.6 26.

1 30.6

Water Supply amount in

2020(×109m3)400 30.7 16.6 38.67 32.5 27.

6 32.4

It is obvious that Qinzhou carries the heaviest burden (nearly 74% of supply amount in 2010, and 54% in 2020). It is highly recommended that Qinzhou should increase its water supply ability and keep good balance in the process of water allocation.

Water consumption efficiency

Cities Qinzhou Beihai Nanning Liuzhou Hechi Baise Priovince

Water consumption per 10000 RMB industrial added

value （ m3/10000 RMB ）

175 165 73 195 281 42 284

Water consumption per 10000 RMB industrial added

value in 2005

258 332 126 358 450 511 398

Water consumption per 10000 RMB industrial added

value in 2010

370 130 203 230

Water consumption per 10000 RMB industrial added

value in 2020

160 125 185 123

Inefficient use of water resources is not beneficial to achieve the water-saving goals of Guangxi District.

Energy supply and demand

Energy demand in this plan and possible supply of each city

Cities Qinzhou Beihai Nanning Liuzhou Hechi Baise

The total energy demand (million tons of ETC) 25.6 9.6 3.4 13.8 1.7 1.9 ～

2.9Energy supply in 2010（ million tons of ETC ） 653 394 1259 766.5 450 697

Energy supply in 2020（ million tons of ETC ） 711 523 1423 876 754 737

Energy supply in relevant parks（ million tons of ETC ） 25.5 36.5 36 14.5

At park level, the petrochemical energy consumption accounted for 100% and 26.3% of the available energy in Qinzhou and Beihai park respectively. Qinzhou park’s energy supply can not meet the requirements of petroleum industry. What’s more , the future development of forest pulp and paper, steel and other industries which consume a mass of energy in the Tieshan Port Zone will strengthen the pressure of energy supply in Bei Hai.

Energy consumption efficiency

Qinzhu Beihai Nanning Liuzhou Beise Hechi Guangxi

Per 10000 RMB selling value 0.07 0.17 0.28 0.57 0.21 0.33 0.16

per 10000RMB added value in

20052.47 2.75 2.03 3.18 4.05 3.44 3.9

Target, per 10000RMB added

value in 20101.78 2.2 1.62 2.38 2.84 2.55 2.41

In the plan, the energy consumption of each city's accounted for no more than 3.6% of the target value. Thus the highly efficient energy use of petroleum industry will have great positive impact on the goal of energy saving in Guang Xi.

Scheme Comparison based on resource impact assessment

There is no big difference among impacts of the nine schemes With regard to the energy factors, No5 is much better than Scheme 21 and basic scheme since projects with high water demand are not placed in cities such as Qinzhou and Beihai, where the freshwater are relatively not in sufficient.

资源影响情况图

0. 11

0. 16

0. 10 0. 09 0. 090. 11

0. 13

0. 08

0. 13

0. 000. 020. 040. 060. 080. 100. 120. 140. 160. 18

2方案 5方案 19方案 21方案 22方案 24方案 27方案 28方案 26基础 No2 No 5 No19 No 21 No22 No24 No 27 No 28 Basic

Circular economy potential analysis:– Input agglomeration – Output agglomeration– Energy consumption per million industrial productive value – Fresh water consumption – Utilize ratio of local resource – Distance for resource transport– Industrial Clustering

Environmental risk analysis:– Risk statistics review, both domestic and abroad– Social conditions: population, risk management capacity– Natural conditions: typhoon/storms, geological disasters, sensible sites– Risk source identification– Risk valuing – Comparison between schemes

Evaluation Indices No.2 No.5 No.19 No.21 No.22 No.24 No.26 No.27 No.28

Input agglomeration 0.27 0.26 0.28 0.28 0.26 0.25 0.25 0.40 0.36

Output agglomeration 0.25 0.25 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.24 0.40 0.38

Energy consumptionper million industrial productive value

0.85 0.84 0.88 0.83 0.90 0.87 0.82 0.78 0.80

Fresh waterconsumption 0.84 0.84 0.83 0.86 0.85 0.82 0.87 0.86 0.86

Percentage of local resource

0.87 0.90 0.82 0.74 0.90 0.91 0.58 0.89 0.89

Utilize ratio of local resource

0.50 0.64 0.64 0.56 0.56 0.58 0.46 0.63 0.58

Distance for resourcetransport 0.64 0.65 0.63 0.61 0.61 0.63 0.56 1.00 0.85

Industrial Cluster 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8

Score in Total58.9 61.3 60.3 57.5 60.2 60.2 52.3 70.2 66.5

Contribution to circular economy potential

This industrial supply chain is well and completely designed in this plan. However, the disperse lay-out will lower the efficiency of resource utilization by increase the transportation distance.

Environmental Risk Assessment

Plan to respond disaster emergency Recommendation for Plan

Defensive measures to natural disastersPreventive measures for industrial risks

Risk statistics, both domestic and abroad Social and natural conditions survey Regulations and standards

Risk Source identification

Project RisksRisks to arouse Secondary disasters

Risk level： Accident type

Accident effects Accident frequency

Scheme score based on project risk level(P)

Sensitivity to geological disasterSensitivity to climate disastersSensitivity to industrial risks

Geological condition of industrial parks

Ecologically sensitive place capacity to respond emergency

Weight determined by city sensitivity (W)

Comprehensive ER= （ Pij Wj ），Nine Schemes

Scheme comparison based on ERA

Typhoon and storm

Geologic disaster

57

Risk analysis: scheme comparison

（ 2）此外基础方案项目布局较分散，需要运输原材料的项目较多，尤其是要运输氯乙烯、苯酚、丙烯腈和丙酮等危害度高的物质，

（ 1 ） Though without the transportation risk, scheme 27 and 28 which put all projects in weakest place suffers rather higher risk. （ 2 ） While Scheme 21, in which the projects with hazardous chemical are placed in less sensitive area, wins the highest scores. （ 3 ） The original scheme , which is disperse and poorly organized suffers the highest environmental risks.

环境风险影响情况图

0. 2083

0. 13830. 0809

0. 2658

0. 05250. 1034

0. 0696 0. 0486 0. 03250. 00000. 05000. 10000. 15000. 20000. 25000. 3000

2方案 5方案 19方案 21方案 22方案 24方案 27方案 28方案 26基础 No2 No5 No19 No21 No22 No24 No27 No28 Basic

Scheme Score based on ERA

Socio-economic assessment ：– Profit ratio, opportunity costs, market risk, input/output analysis– Advantages on development of relevant industries, create job

opportunities …– External dependent economy, benefit and impacts on different

groups of people

Public participation:– Government officers, experts, general public, supporting

attitude– Call for strict environmental and resource protection– Air pollution, surface water pollution, marine ecological

system– Market risk

Scheme comparison

Res. utilization

Optimal Scheme

Plan reasonability Consistency Envir. / resour. Impact

Project Allocation

Nine schemes (scenarios)

Production scale

Production chain

Provincial plans

Relevant city plans

park plans

Water

environment

Solid waste

Air environm

ent

Ecological im

pactsR

isk analysis

Circular econom

y

Result of scheme comparison

Reasonability

Consistency

Air WaterSolid waste

Eco-syste

m

Resource

Risk

Circul.

economy

Total Order

No 2 0.90 2.28 0.46 0.97 2.33 0.64 0.88 2.08 0.32 10.88 2

No 5 1.98 1.80 0.78 0.96 1.61 1.35 1.28 1.38 1.05 12.19 1

No19 1.98 0.72 0.51 1.01 0.36 0.92 0.80 0.81 0.73 7.82 9

No21 0.72 1.92 1.98 0.96 0.72 0.31 0.72 2.66 0.22 10.21 3

No22 2.34 0.72 1.76 1.01 1.07 0.44 0.72 0.52 0.48 9.06 8

No24 1.26 1.44 1.10 1.08 1.07 1.35 0.88 1.03 0.48 9.69 5

No27 3.60 1.20 0.18 0.41 0.19 0.16 1.04 0.70 2.62 10.10 4

No28 3.96 0.48 0.89 0.70 0.14 0.21 0.64 0.49 1.93 9.44 6

Basic 1.26 1.44 1.17 0.91 0.50 2.63 1.04 0.33 0.16 9.44 6

表 12 － 1 方案综合排序

Conclusions

• Overall evaluation of the original scheme (basic)

• Optimization recommendations• Recommend scheme No 5