Environmental Governance and Economic Resilience

John L Roberts

CFTC Adviser on Sustainable Development at the Indian Ocean

Commission

Associate Professor Department of Economics and Statistics

University of Mauritius

Environmental Governance and Economic resilienceScope of Paper

Explores from recent published studies the links between:

Economic vulnerability and resilience

Environmental vulnerability and resilience

Well-being and the ecological footprint

Environmental governance

Environmental Governance and Economic resilience

Content and Sources

The Briguglio framework - 2006The NEF Happy Planet Index: 2006The Ecological Footprint: 2006EPI: Yale and Columbia: 2006, pilot The environmental UN MDGs 2006

Environmental Governance and Economic resilienceSummary of issues

How to improve economic and environmental resilience?

What is the trade off with Well-being?What is the trade off with Human

Development?What is the ecological price of economic

resilience?Does environmental performance increase

with economic growth?

Economic Resilience and Economic Vulnerability Quadrant Source: Data from Briguglio 2006 Figure 1

Chile

Uganda

Canada

Finland

Senegal

El Salvador

Austria

Hungary

PolandRussia

UK

France

Malaysia

Mauritius

New Zealand

Best Case

Worst Case

Nigeria

IndonesiaT urkey

Prodigal Son

Self Made

Singapore

Iceland

Malta

Bangladesh

Egypt

Jamaica

Dominican R. CyprusPanama

LatviaBarbados

Estonia

Hong Kong

Denmark

USA

Kenya

Pakistan

T rinidad & T obagoNorway

Luxembourg

Sweden

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Economic Resilience Index

Eco

nom

ic V

ulne

rabi

lity

Inde

x

Economic Vulnerability and the Ratio of Economic Resilience to Economic Vulnerability

Source: Analysis from Briguglio data 2006 Figure 2

New ZealandSouth Africa

Germany

Japan

UKCanada

Trinidad & Tob.

France

ItalyM exico

BarbadosM auritius

Belize

CyprusEstonia

USA

M alta

Singapore

Jamaica

y = 70,823x-1,0774

R2 = 0,8048

0,00

2,00

4,00

6,00

8,00

10,00

12,00

14,00

16,00

18,00

20,00

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Vulnerability Index

Res

ilien

ce I

ndex

/ Vul

nera

bilit

y In

dex

GDP Per Capita and Happy Planet IndexSIDS and other countries

Sources: UNDP HDR 2006 and New Economics Foundation 2006 Figure 3

51Trinidad & T

M auritius

Barbados

Antigua & BarbudaD.R

TongaSt. Lucia

FijiM aldivesCape VerdeComoros M alta

Grenada

Bahamas

Bahrain

Cyprus

St. Kitts & N Seychelles

Singapore France

Canada UK

NetherlandsIceland

Austria

Ireland

USA

W. Samoa St. Vincent & GrenadinesDominica

Vanuatu

Papua New GuineaHaiti

Solomon Is.Sao T & Principe

y = -0,0005x + 58,621

R2 = 0,5085

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0 5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 35 000 40 000 45 000

GDP per Capita $ ppp

Hap

py p

lane

t ind

ex s

core

HDI and Happy Planet IndexUNDP HDI and NEF HPI

Sources: UNDP and NEF 2006 Figure 4

Fiji

BelizeMaldives

JamaicaCape Verde T rinidad & T .

Antigua. T onga

Cyprus NetherlandsLuxembourg

IcelandAustria

IrelandCanadaUK

BarbadosMalta

St . Kit ts & NSeychelles

W. SamoaSt. Vincent & G St. Lucia

Dominica

Bahamas

GrenadaMaurit ius

Bahrain

SingaporeFrance

Sao T ome & P

Comoros

Papua New Guinea

Hait i

Guinea Bissau

USA

Vanuatu

Solomon Is.

y = 2E-09x4 - 6E-06x3 + 0,006x2 - 2,3111x + 342,13

R2 = 0,579

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

HDI 2006 (x1000)

HP

I 200

6

Ratio of Economic Resilience to Economic Vulnerability and Ecological Footprint

Sources: Data from Briguglio et al 2006 and New Economics Foundation 2006 Figure 5

Uruguay

Coted'Ivoire Cameroon

USA

BarbadosJamaica

Trinidad & Tob.

Cyprus

M alta

M auritius

Papua N.G.

Lithuania

M adagascar

Canada

UK

Germany

Japan

France

Switzerland

Australia

Sweden

South Africa

Estonia

Finland

Poland

IrelandSingapore

RomaniaChile

New ZealandPortugal

Belize

Jordan

Luxembourg

Norway

IsraelBelgium

y = -0,0179x2 + 0,7147x + 1,6374

R2 = 0,3745

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0,00 2,00 4,00 6,00 8,00 10,00 12,00 14,00 16,00 18,00 20,00

Ratio of Economic Resilience and Economic Vulnerability

Ecol

ogic

al F

ootp

rint

GDP per Capita and Environmental Performance Index Sources: data from HDR 2006 and EPI 2006 Figure 6

Iceland

Switzerland

T rinidad & T obago

P.N.G

Nigeria

Romania

Pakistan

NorwayIrelandAustria

UK

France

FinlandNew Zealand

Madagascar

USA

Philippines

Sri Lanka Dominican R.

Hungary

Portugal

Czech Republic

SpainIsrael

Begium

South Africa

India

MalaysiaColombia

Russia

y = -5E-08x2 + 0,0025x + 51,98

R2 = 0,728

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 35 000 40 000 45 000

GDP per capita @ PPP $I

EPI

Environmental Governance and Economic resilienceReports of Action

Environmental

Systems

Environmental Stress

Human vulnerability

Social and Institutional

Capacity

Global Stewardship

Coastal and marine management (Bahrain)

Combating desertification and deforestation

(Cyprus)

Mine clearance in Quinta Nanque forest

(Guinea Bissau)

Solar energy for remote islands:

(Seychelles)

Tuna tagging and marine area monitoring

(WIO IOC)

Species conservation

(Comoros)

Waste Management to EU standards

(Malta)

Malaria and HIV/AIDS prevention and management

(Sao Tome and Principe)

Sugar cane bio-energy technology - biomass and ethanol

(Mauritius)

International co-operation on GHGs: Refrigeration retrofitting

(Bahrain)

Irrigation and water management

(Cape Verde)

Waste (reducing, reusing and recycling)

(Singapore)

Eradication of brucellosis – milk standards

(Cyprus)

Environmental governance system:

(Malta)

GHC inventory and risk assessment

(Sao Tome and Principe)

CO2 Emissions per capita 1980 and 2003 Source HDR data reported 2006 Figure 7

M auritius

Portugal

Switzerland

Netherlands

UK

IcelandJapan

NorwayIreland

New ZealandCyprus

Israel

Finland

Australia

Singapore

M alta

Cuba

Belgium

Poland

Hungary

Sweden France

Romania

Trinidad & Tobago

Canada

USA

Bahrain

y = 1,0206x + 0,4929

R2 = 0,8615

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0 5 10 15 20 25

CO2 per capita 1980

CO

2 E

mis

sion

200

3

CO2 Emissions p/cap 1980 and Ratio of CO2 Emissions p/cap 2003/1980 Source HDR 2006 Figure 8

JapanIreland Albania

Finland

Netherlands

UK

FranceRomania

Comoros

Poland Belgium

USA

M alaysiaThailand

Dominica

GrenadaSt Vincent & the Grenadines

M aldives

M auritius

VanuatuCape Verde

W. Samoa

Denmark

Singapore

PhilppinesTrinidad & Tobago

M adagascar

Bahrain

Cuba

Canada

P.N.G

TongaBangladesh

Costa Rica

Dominican R.

St. Lucia

HungarySweden

Jamaica

M alta

CyprusIsrael

New Zealand

y = -2E-05x4 + 0,0009x3 - 0,0063x2 - 0,0981x + 1,8241

R2 = 0,1296

0,00

0,50

1,00

1,50

2,00

2,50

3,00

3,50

4,00

4,50

5,00

0 5 10 15 20 25

CO2 Emissions per capita 1980

Rat

io 2

003/

1980

CO

2 E

mis

sion

s p/

c

Environmental Governance and Economic resilienceLimitations of MDGs as tools for planning

• Missing data

• Arbitrary baselines and inequitable targets

• Conflict with global and national priorities• Lack of coverage of key areas for SIDS (climate change and sea level

rise, disasters, waste management, tourism, coastal and marine, biodiversity, demographic change, ncds, governance and security, competitiveness)

• Development disparities between and within countries

• Absence of an economics framework

• Absence of denominators

AIMS Countries 1990-2004 Progress with Environmental MDG 7

Source: UN Statistics Division 2006 Figure 11

Achieved

38%

On Track

1%Off track

17%

Missing data

44%

Progress with MDGs AIMS Region; selected countries

CO2 Emissions per head per year: Goal 7 Target 9 Indicator 28Source: UN Statistics Division 2006 Figure 9

30,6

23.8

Bahrain: Off Track

Singapore: Target Achieved

Malta: Off Track 7,5

13.8

6.2

15

0,30,2 Cape Verde: Off Track

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

CO

2 E

mis

sion

s p

er h

ead

per

yea

r (m

etri

c to

nn

es)

Bahrain

Singapore

M alta

Cape Verde

Off Track

Target Achieved

Off Track Off Track

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Vol

ume

of C

O2

Emis

sion

s M

illio

n M

etric

tonn

es p

er y

ear

Bahrain Singapore M alta Cape Verde

Progress with MDGs Selected AIMS Countries

Total Volume of CO2 Emissions 1990 and 2002Source: UN Statistics Division 2006 Figure 10

Vol CO2 1990

Vol CO2 2002

Off Track

Achieved Achieved Achieved Off Track Off Track Achieved Achieved Achieved M issing Data

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

Tota

l For

est C

over

sq

kms

GuineaBissau

Cyprus Cape Verde Seychelles Maurit ius Comoros Sao T ome& Principe

Maldives Singapore Malta Bahrain

Progress with MDGs AIMS Region

Goal 7 Target 9 Indicator 25 Reverse Loss of Forest Cover Forest Cover SQ KMs 1990 and 2004

Sources: UN Statistics Division 2006 and COI 2004 Figure 12

1990

2004

AIMS Countries: Safe water1990, 2004, 2006 Percent Provision of Safe water, Target by percent and numbers of persons

Sources; UN Stats, Div and UNICEF 2006

AIMS 1990 2004 Target StatusLatest 2006 Status 2006

Target number persons x 1000

Bahrain … … … Missing data Missing data

Cape Verde … 73 … Missing data 80 Missing data

Comoros 93 94 97 On track 86 Off track 81

Cyprus 100 100 100 Achieved 100 Achieved 0

Guinea Bissau … 59 … Missing data 59 Missing data

Maldives 96 83 98 Off track 83 Off track 48

Malta 100 100 100 Achieved 100 Achieved 0

Mauritius 100 100 100 Achieved 100 Achieved 0

Sao Tome & Principe … 79 … Missing data 79 Missing data

Seychelles 88 88 94 Off track 88 Off track 5

Singapore 100 100 100 Achieved 100 Achieved 0

Environmental Governance and Economic resilienceUsing Denominators: AIMS country Targets

730,000 malnourished people to be fed – 79% in Guinea Bissau (G1, T4, I 5)

6,960 infant lives to be saved – 90% in Comoros and GB (G4, T 5, I 14)

1,939 sq kms of forest to be re-established- 95% in Guinea Bissau (G7, T 9, I 25)

9.1 m tonnes of CO2 to be cut- 92% in Bahrain, Cyprus and Mauritius (G 7, T 9, I 28)

133,000 people to be given safe water- 97% in Comoros and Maldives (Goal 7, T 9 I 30)

Environmental Governance and Economic resilienceBuilding the evidence base

for SIDS

Move on from indices and reports of action to models based on critical assessments of costs and effectiveness of investment

Impact on natural capital Implications for social well-being Distribution of costs and benefits Constraints, relevance, adaptability, timescales Priorities at global, regional, national & local levels Performance of interventions (Efficiency, equity and sustainability)

The neglected issue of demographic change (All SIDS 2003-2015 from

55million-63 million population +15%)