Environment Challenges:Climate Change Water, Energy
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Transcript of Environment Challenges:Climate Change Water, Energy
Environment Challenges:Climate Change
Water, Energy
James M. ByrneProfessor of Geography
Prentice Institute Affiliate
University of Lethbridge
Earth: The Operators Manual
The most profound danger to world peace in the coming years will stem … from the
legitimate demands of the world's dispossessed ... the majority live a marginal
existence in equatorial climates. Global warming … originating with the wealthy
few, will affect their fragile ecologies most. Their situation will be desperate and
manifestly unjust.
100 Nobel Laureates Warn Our PlanetOSLO, Norway December 7, 2001
Borne in 1960? Your Net GHG Emissions
Recent GHG t/yr
GHG Sum t/1960-2012
India 1.4 ~25China 6 ~100North America 25 ~800Alberta 70 ~1500*
Developed world lead in GHG emission reductions
*Not the average Albertan*Not average Kainai Resident
Drought?
• Africa, South America
• Russia, Australia
• Canada – Ontario, Prairies, BC
• USA
– Southwest, Southeast
– Texas, Oklahoma, Great Plains
Nanton, Alberta, January 4, 2012
Massive southern Alberta grass fires force 3,500 to leave homes
Upper St. Mary Watershed, Glacier
Park, Montana
• 2000 km2
• Water supply -300,000 ha irrigation in Canada & USA
St. Mary Spring Runoff to 2100?Simulated Spring Streamflow Trend
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091
Modelled Q
S (
million m
3)
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Historical (solid is base period)
Larson 2011A, 2011B
Modest GHG emission cuts
below business as usual
Enhanced Recovery of Oil and Gas with Hydraulic Fracturing:
Environmental Concerns
James M. Byrne, Ph.D.
Professor and Chair, Geography
University of Lethbridge
Industry
• Hydraulic fracturing is a proven technological advancement which allows natural gas producers to safely recover natural gas from deep shale formations
• Ground and surface water contamination
• earthquake generation
• Air pollution emissions
• Leaking methane, a potent greenhouse gas.
Science
Methane leakage up to 9% of production!
Fossil fuel balance sheet ($billions)
• Stern report $1,000
• Fossil fuel subsidies $ 600
• Annual damages $1,200
• Oil purchases $2,000
• Coal Purchases $ 500
• Natural Gas $ 500
• Health care costs $1,000
• TOTAL SAVINGS $4,800
$1900 IMF
$6100
Fracking?$?,???.??
IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF PLUG-IN HYBRID VEHICLES ON ELECTRIC UTILITIES AND
REGIONAL U.S.POWER GRIDSMichael Kintner-Meyer
Kevin Schneider Robert Pratt
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
JOURNAL OF EUEC, Volume 1, 2007
Mark Jacobson, Stanford University • 3.8 million large wind
turbines
• 90,000 solar plants
• geothermal, tidal power
• rooftop photovoltaic installations (Germany)
• Cost effective compared to fossil fuels
Wind Speeds
Archer, C. L., and M. Z. Jacobson (2005), Evaluation of global wind power, J. Geophys. Res. 110 , D12110, doi: 0.1029/2004JD005462
Solar EnergyLethbridge = Houston, Tx
PHOTOVOLTAIC RESOURCE MAPS FOR CANADA Sophie Pelland, Daniel W. McKenney, Yves Poissant, Robert Morris, Kevin Lawrence, Kathy Campbell and PiaPapadopol, CANMET Energy Technology Centre-Varennes, Natural Resources Canada, 1615 Lionel-BouletBlvd., Varennes, Québec, Canada, J3X 1S6
Summary• Fossil fuels - declining use
• Climate and weather on steroids getting worse
• Solutions: cut GHG emissions– Electric and hybrid automobiles
– Power grid conversion to renewables
• Alberta - renewable investments– Wind, solar, biomass & biogas, heat exchange
– Geothermal – individual and community
• Kainai Reserve has big solar, wind potential
References
• http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/iedindex3.cfm?tid=1&pid=1&aid=2&cid=ww,&syid=2000&eyid=2011&unit=TST#