Environics - Leadnow Swing Riding Poll Wave Two Report - Sept 22

LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 | 1

Swing Riding Polls – Wave Two

LEADNOW SEPTEMBER 22, 2015

LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE TWO: SEPTEMBER 2015 | 2 2

METHODOLOGY

Environics was commissioned by LeadNow to conduct telephone surveys of approximately 500 to 600 eligible voters in each of 31 federal ridings across Canada between September 18 and 21, 2015. The research was conducted using Interactive Voice Response (IVR) technology and the findings were weighted by age and gender to reflect the demographic makeup of the electorate. A total of 18,758 eligible voters were surveyed. Survey of this magnitude will yield aggregate results which can be considered accurate to within plus or minus 0.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The sample size and margin of error for each individual riding are described on the following pages. The survey explored vote intention in the upcoming federal election. In each riding, the names of nominated local candidates were read. Questions were also posed on whether respondents felt they were voting to re-elect or defeat the Conservative government and those supporting opposition party candidates were asked about their willingness to switch their vote to the candidate with the best chance of defeating the Conservatives.


Methodology Riding Field dates Sample size Margin of error

Fredericton Sept. 18-‐19 580 4.1

Eglinton-‐Lawrence Sept. 18-‐19 565 4.1

Etobicoke-‐Lakeshore Sept. 18-‐19 537 4.2

Kitchener Centre Sept. 19-‐20 672 3.8

London North Centre Sept. 19-‐20 540 4.2

Willowdale Sept. 18-‐20 535 4.2

Elmwood-‐Transcona Sept. 19-‐20 552 4.2

Saskatoon-‐University Sept. 18-‐20 853 3.4

Calgary Centre Sept. 18-‐20 531 4.3

Port Moody-‐Coquitlam Sept. 19-‐20 529 4.3

Vancouver Granville Sept. 19-‐21 541 4.2

Kanata-‐Carlton Sept. 19-‐20 562 4.1

Nepean Sept. 19-‐20 569 4.1

Orleans Sept. 19-‐20 567 4.1

OSawa West-‐Nepean Sept. 19-‐20 747 3.6

Waterloo Sept. 18-‐20 658 3.8


Methodology continued

Riding Field dates Sample size Margin of error Winnipeg South Centre Sept. 19-‐20 597 4.0

Kootenay-‐Columbia Sept. 18-‐19 529 4.3

Nanaimo-‐Ladysmith Sept. 19-‐20 699 3.7

North Island-‐Powell River Sept. 18-‐19 556 4.2

Central Nova Sept. 19-‐20 573 4.1

Cumberland-‐Colchester Sept. 19-‐20 617 3.9

PiS Meadows-‐Maple Ridge Sept. 18-‐20 543 4.2

Yukon Sept. 19-‐21 497 4.4

Saint John-‐Rothesay Sept. 19-‐20 623 3.9

Niagara Falls Sept. 19-‐20 557 4.2

Sault Ste. Marie Sept. 19-‐20 632 3.9

BranYord-‐Brant Sept. 19-‐20 622 3.9

Cambridge Sept. 19-‐20 552 4.2

Guelph Sept. 19-‐20 601 4.0

Grey Bruce-‐Owen Sound Sept. 21 1,022 3.1

Total Sept 18 -‐ 21 18,758 0.7


Six in ten are voting to defeat the Harper Conservatives and elect a different government

Q. In this election, would you say you are voting to re-elect Stephen Harper and the Conservatives, or are you voting to defeat the Harper Conservatives and elect a different government?

Voting to re-elect or defeat Harper Conservatives

18

58 32

11

Voting to defeat Harper Voting to re-elect Harper dk


Six in ten opposition voters are willing to vote for candidate with best chance of beating Conservatives according to local polling

Q. If local polling showed that another candidate had the best chance of defeating the Conservative candidate in your riding, would you be willing to change your vote in order to defeat the Conservative, or would you stick with your current vote regardless?

Willing to change vote vs. sticking with first choice

18

60%

39%

61%

38%

61%

38%

49% 50%

Willing to change vote to defeat Conservative candidate Would not change vote based on local polling

Total NDP supporters Liberal supporters Green supporters


Mira Oreck of the NDP leads by 6 points in Vancouver Granville

36

36

24

29

30

35

30

24

30

6

10

9

Decided voters - Sept

Decided voters - Aug

Election 2011 results

NDP/Oreck CPC/Broshko Liberal/Wilson-Raybould Green/Barkusky

2015 Vancouver Granville vote intention

10

Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] …? Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a party’s candidate that you are leaning towards…?


Fin Donnelly of the NDP currently leads by 7 points in Port Moody-Coquitlam

41

54

40

34

27

46

19

14

9

7

5

4




NDP/Donnelly CPC/Laidler Liberal/Adcock Green/Madsen

2015 Port Moody-Coquitlam vote intention



Bob D’Eith of the NDP leads by 6 points in Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge

41

35

35

55

19

5

6

5

Decided voters - Sept.


NDP/D'Eith CPC/Murray Liberal/Ruimy Green/Tam

September 2015 Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge vote intention



Rachel Blaney of the NDP leads by 14 points in North Island-Powell River

41

42

27

46

18

6

14

5



NDP/Blaney CPC/Smith Liberal/Schwartzhoff Green/Sayers

September 2015 North Island-Powell River vote intention



Sheila Malcolmson of NDP leads by 10 points in Nanaimo-Ladysmith

34

45

24

40

17

7

24

7



NDP/Malcolmson CPC/MacDonald Liberal/Tessier Green/Manly

September 2015 Nanaimo-Ladysmith vote intention



Kootenay-Columbia is a dead heat between Stetski NDP and Wilks Conservative

37

39

37

50

15

3

11

6



NDP/Stetski CPC/Wilks Liberal/Johnston Green/Green

September 2015 Kootenay-Columbia vote intention



Liberal Larry Bagnell leads Melissa Atkinson of the NDP by 10 points in Yukon

29

14

27

34

39

33

4

19



NDP/Atkinson CPC/Leef Liberal/Bagnell Green/De Jong

September 2015 Yukon vote intention



Joan Crockatt of the CPC leads Liberal Kent Hehr by 8 points in Calgary Centre

11

17

4

15

47

44

37

55

39

32

33

19

3

7

26

10



By-election 2012 results

Election 2011 Results

NDP/Ratti CPC/Crockatt Liberal/Hehr Green/Boonlert

2015 Calgary Centre vote intention



Saskatoon-University now a dead heat between NDP Clair Card and CPC Brad Trost

37

41

38

37

34

49

22

22

10

4

4

3




NDP/Card CPC/Trost Liberal/Block Green/Harvey*

2015 Saskatoon-University vote intention

Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] …? Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a party’s candidate that you are leaning towards…? * Candidate name added in Sept wave


Liberal Jim Carr leads Joyce Bateman of the CPC by 7 points in Winnipeg South Centre

23

18

31

41

38

37

8

3



NDP/Henderson CPC/Bateman Liberal/Carr Green/Park

September 2015 Winnipeg South Centre vote intention



Elmwood-Transcona currently a tight race between Blaikie NDP and Toet CPC

37

39

45

39

30

47

20

25

5

4

6

3




NDP/Blaikie CPC/Toet Liberal/Richardson-Lipon Green/Parke*

2015 Elmwood-Transcona vote intention



Eglinton-Lawrence continues to show a tight race between Marco Mendicino and Joe Oliver

24

25

12

35

36

47

37

35

38

4

4

3




NDP/Thomson CPC/Oliver Liberal/Mendicino Green

2015 Eglinton-Lawrence vote intention

4



Etobicoke Lakeshore currently showing a close Liberal/CPC race

19

28

20

38

31

40

40

36

35

3

5

4




NDP/Trotter CPC/Trottier Liberal/Maloney Green/Salewsy

2015 Etobicoke Lakeshore vote intention



It’s still a three-way race in Kitchener Centre

30

33

22

31

29

40

33

31

32

7

7

5




NDP/Cadell CPC/Woodworth Liberal/Saini Green/Wendler

2015 Kitchener Centre vote intention



London North Centre is currently a dead heat between the Liberals and Conservatives

25

27

24

35

32

37

35

34

34

5

6

4




NDP/Gutierrez-Sanin CPC/Truppe Liberal/Gragiskatos Green/Dyck

2015 London North Centre vote intention



Liberal Ali Ehsassi has a 9 point lead in Willowdale

15

26

19

36

32

41

45

37

39

5

5

1




NDP/Tabasinejad CPC/Leung Liberal/Ehsassi Green/Arruda*

2015 Willowdale vote intention



Conservative Walter Pamic leads Liberals by 7 points in Kanata-Carleton

13

15

44

54

37

26

5

5



NDP/Hansen CPC/Pamic Liberal/McCrimmon Green/West

September 2015 Kanata-Carleton vote intention



Andy Wang of the CPC leads Liberal Chandra Arya by 6 points in Nepean

19

18

40

51

34

27

8

4



NDP/Devine CPC/Wang Liberal/Arya Green/Cooke

September 2015 Nepean vote intention



Andrew Leslie of the Liberals leads the Conservatives by 15 points in Orleans

11

14

36

45

51

38

3

3



NDP/Tremblay Winfield CPC/Galipeau Liberal/Leslie Green/Morin

September 2015 Orleans vote intention



Anita Vandenbeld of Liberals has a narrow 4 point lead in Ottawa West-Nepean

20

20

35

45

39

31

5

4



NDP/Rivier CPC/Abdi Liberal/Vandenbeld Green

September 2015 Ottawa West-Nepean vote intention



Liberal Bardish Chagger leads Conservative Peter Braid by 8 points in Waterloo

26

15

31

41

39

38

3

5



NDP/Freeman CPC/Braid Liberal/Chagger Green/Walsh

September 2015 Waterloo vote intention



Conservative Rob Nicholson has a 15 point lead in Niagara Falls

27

23

42

53

25

19

6

4



NDP/Ioannoni CPC/Nicholson Liberal/Planche Green/Soos

September 2015 Niagara Falls vote intention



Sault Ste. Marie is a tight three-way race

30

37

31

40

34

20

6

2



NDP/Morrison CPC/Hayes Liberal/Sheehan Green

September 2015 Sault Ste. Marie vote intention



McColeman CPC has a 9 point lead over Laferriere NDP in Brantford-Brant

30

29

39

48

25

19

6

3



NDP/LaFerriere CPC/McColeman Liberal/Takacs Green/Brandt

September 2015 Brantford-Brant vote intention



Conservative Gary Goodyear leads the Liberal by 9 points in Cambridge

17

28

43

53

34

15

6

4



NDP/Stewart CPC/Goodyear Liberal/May Green/Braniff

September 2015 Cambridge vote intention



Lloyd Longfield of the Liberals has a 20-point lead over Gloria Kovach of the CPC in Guelph

18

17

25

33

45

43

12

6



NDP/Seagram CPC/Kovach Liberal/Longfield Green/Miller

September 2015 Guelph vote intention



Conservative Larry Miller has a 14 point lead in Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound

20

18

43

56

29

16

9

10



NDP/McLaren CPC/Miller Liberal/Love Green/Albinati

September 2015 Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound vote intention



Liberal Matt DeCourcey continues to hold a 5-point lead in Fredericton


20

26

24

32

29

47

37

34

24

10

12

4




NDP/Scott-Levesque CPC/Ashfield Liberal/Decourcey Green/Babineau

2015 Fredericton vote intention


Liberal Sean Fraser has a 27-point lead over Conservative Fred De Lorey in Central Nova

20

27

23

55

50

14

7

4

Decided voters


NDP/Landry CPC/De Lorey Liberal/Fraser Green/Hachey

September 2015 Central Nova vote intention



Liberal Bill Casey leads by 22 points in Cumberland-Colchester

7

22

32

53

54

18

6

5



NDP/Robinson CPC/Armstrong Liberal/Casey Green/Blanch

September 2015 Cumberland-Colchester vote intention



Conservative Weston leads Liberal Long by 5 points in Saint John-Rothesay

25

31

38

50

33

16

4

3



NDP/Griffin CPC/Weston Liberal/Long Green/Murphy

September 2015 Saint John-Rothesay vote intention



FOR FURTHER INFORMATION OR QUESTIONS CONTACT:

38

Brenda Sharpe SENIOR RESEARCH ASSOCIATE, PUBLIC AFFAIRS

Tel: 613-230-5089 x 228 Email: [email protected]

Environics - Leadnow Swing Riding Poll Wave Two Report - Sept 22

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