Env & Society Today’s Offerings

Env & Society Today’s Offerings

• General Essay Feedback (marked forms available at lecture end)• Review of UK SD political context • Case Study – UK Upland Management Research – Rural Economy & Land Use (RELU) studies• For Monday – full course review & exam guidance

Essay Feedback / Advice!

• A good range of marks from 35 (failing) to 75 (First class) - Mean, = 58.4 (s.d. = 6.5); includes 6 Firsts!

• Introduction needs to include statement of essay aim that links to the specific Q set

• Structure needed to match the focus of the Q - too many were all I know about …. Or all I can paste about …

• Your analysis of secondary material (usually at end of a paragraph) is ESSENTIAL to show understanding & flow of argument in essay IN YOUR OWN WORDS!!

• Need to use academic journal sources NOT just web / wikepedia etc.

• Must accept complexity of issue & avoid simplistic views• Referencing was poor in text & (in most cases) would need to

improve to avoid loss of marks on future coursework

www.env.leeds.ac.uk/sustainableuplands

See – www.env.leeds.ac.uk/sustainableuplands

Adapting to future change in the Peak District

A joint Research Councils Research Project co-sponsored

by DEFRA & SEERAD

• UK Sustainable Development Strategy and links to research agendas / local level management initiatives

• A Practical Example of Applied Interdisciplinary Research Project focused on Sustainable Land Management in UK


UK Sustainable Development Policy and Research

• Set of 3 lectures (previous 2 & this 1) designed to offer an overview of challenges in applying UK Sustainable Development policy at a local / institutional level & guide you on how research can better inform this process

• UK Government published latest ‘Sustainable Development Strategy’ in March 2005, together with a joint publication (with Scottish Exec, Welsh Assembly & N.I. Office) ‘One Future – different paths: the UK’s shared framework for sustainable development’


UK Sustainable Development Policy – Guiding Principles

•


UK Sustainable Development Policy – Shared Priorities

• Sustainable Consumption & Production – “more with less”

• Climate Change & Energy – “set a good example”

• Natural Resource Protection & Environmental Enhancement – “need a better understanding and a more integrated policy framework”

• Sustainable Communities – “give communities more power and say in the decisions that affect them”

See - http://www.sustainable-development.gov.uk/index.htm


UK SD Policy – Natural Resource Protection & Env Enhancement


UK SD Policy – What’s Behind the Rhetoric?

• Policy statements include excellent words, but policies and practice need much greater monitoring.

• One way to achieve this is by the use of Sustainable Development Indicators (68 identified by UK Govt)

• Needs local level projects and case-study based research (such as we provide here!?)


Our Case Study Example – Peak District National Park

• What problems / SD issues do you associate with Peak District National Park / upland Britain?

• Environmental –

• Social –

• Economic -


Andy Dougill & Mark Reed (together with 10 others from Leeds, Sheffield and Durham

Universities AND support of Moors for the Future in Castleton)



by DEFRA & SEERAD

• One year Scoping Study Overview

• The next stage – 3 year follow on project funded – aims

• Moving ‘Collaborative Learning’ Process forward



• Research Councils UK & DEFRA / SEERAD co-sponsored a £20 million research programme on ‘Rural Economy and Land Use’ (RELU) – www.relu.ac.uk

• Interdisciplinary research is being funded 2004-2009 in order to inform future policy and practice with choice on how to manage the UK countryside and rural economies

• Themes include – sustainable food chains, animal and plant diseases & people and the rural environment

Andy DougillWith:

Mark Reed, Klaus Hubacek, Tim Burt, Pippa Chapman,Evan Fraser, Joseph Holden, Mike Kirkby, Christina Prell, Jan Sendzimir, Laura Shotbolt, Sigrid Stagl, Lindsay Stringer, Andy Turner, Fred Worrall

Managing Uncertainty in Dynamic Socio-Environmental

Systems:An Application to UK

Uplands


Sustainable UplandsSustainable Upland Management For Multiple Benefits

A joint Research Councils Scoping Study co-sponsored

by DEFRA & SEERAD

http://www.shef.ac.uk/

http://www.moorsforthefuture.org.uk/

• Uplands provide a range of goods and services…

Case Study Backgroundwww.env.leeds.ac.uk/sustainableuplands


by DEFRA & SEERAD


http://www.sussex.ac.uk/


by DEFRA & SEERAD



•Drinking water


by DEFRA & SEERAD




•Biodiversity


by DEFRA & SEERAD




•Carbon


by DEFRA & SEERAD




•Education


by DEFRA & SEERAD




•Recreation


by DEFRA & SEERAD




•Hunting


by DEFRA & SEERAD




•Farming


by DEFRA & SEERAD



•But Britain’s uplands environment is subject to change…

Upland Challengeswww.env.leeds.ac.uk/sustainableuplands


by DEFRA & SEERAD




• Historic pollution


by DEFRA & SEERAD




• Current land use


by DEFRA & SEERAD




• Burning regulations


by DEFRA & SEERAD




• Common Agriculture Policy reform


by DEFRA & SEERAD




• Water Framework Directive implementation


by DEFRA & SEERAD




• Kyoto Protocol


by DEFRA & SEERAD




• Cultural, social and demographic change


by DEFRA & SEERAD




• Goal: to help people better anticipate, monitor and adapt to rural change in UK uplands

• Visions for a sustainable future from multiple users• Barriers, uncertainties, driving forces re:

environmental, economic and social change• Adaptive responses to rural change scenarios in

uplands

Study Aims


by DEFRA & SEERAD




• Goal: To develop tools and methods for stakeholder involvement

• by including stakeholders at the outset• And throughout the process• Including evaluation and analyses

Case Study Aims


by DEFRA & SEERAD




• Two-way learning and meaningful interaction between: i) different stakeholder groups

ii) social and natural scientists

iii) stakeholders and researchers

Study Aims


by DEFRA & SEERAD



•Adaptation to CAP reform?•Knowledge integration for WFD Programmes of Measures? •Carbon storage?•Can integration of knowledge sources reduce stakeholder conflict and identify innovative adaptations that could not be developed by any group alone?


Research Needs (2 of 2)

Scenarios Scenarios & Indicators& Indicators


• Focus Group with local NGOs and key stakeholders

i) Context & Goals (1 of 3) .


• Scoping interviews (triangulate stakeholder categories and goals)


– Narrower focus

– Contribute to DEFRA’s Heather & Grass Burning Code revision


• Preliminary conceptual model of system

+



• Semi-structured interviews: visions, drivers, indicators• Grounded Theory Analysis

ii) Scenarios & indicators (1 of 4)


• Combine preliminary conceptual model with:• Results from GT analysis of semi-structured interviews • Literature review (Shotbolt et al. in prep.; Stringer et

al. 2006)



Managedburns overless area

No changein managed

burns

Defra Burning Code Re

view

10% leftunburned

Blanket BogBurning Ban

ShorterBurningSeason

Increasedbiodiversity

More birdsof prey

Less grouse

Lessshooting

days

Futureshooting ban

Increasedanimal rights

activism

Lower economic returns from grouse

Less moorland managed for grouse

Smaller rurallabour pool

Demographic change

Culturalchange

Conservation priorities

More longheather

Less shortheather

Lessground-nesti

ng birds

BLANKET BOGDRY HEATH (or if

hydrology not restored)

More scrub

Morebroadleaf

forest

Moreaccidental

fires

If no firebreaks

If hydrologyrestored

Climate Change to warm

er/drier

dryer conditions - specie

s change

Lowerwater table

Uncertainbiodiversity

Less erosion Less watercolour

Moreerosion

More watercolour

Lessvegetation

cover

Lessattractivelandscape

Moreattractivelandscape

In valleys only

On plateaux

More waterpollution

Atmospheric deposition

Afforestation schemes

WaterFramework

DirectiveProgrammesof Measures

Coniferreplacement

schemesDesire to

keep grouseshooting

Desire tokeep hillsheep

Burningtechnologyadvances

Traditionalrural cultural

values

CAP reform

Single farmpayment

Environmental Stewardship Scheme

Entry-LevelScheme

High-LevelScheme

Hill sheepless

profitable

Less gamekeepering

Rural-urbanmigration

Ageing ruralpopulation

Less interestin rural

livelihoods

Less grazingLess hillsheep

Agriculturalmarkets

No changein hill sheep

Declining market

Improvingmarket

Diversification?

No changein fringe

biodiversity

Concentrateon moorland

fringe

With less managedburns and noshepharding

Ecologicalrestoration

Raisedwater table

Hydrological restoration

Desire tokeep openlandscape

Recreationalpriorities

Moreburning days

Morecontrol ofburning

Lessaccidental

fires

No changeaccidental

fires

Less bareground

Irreversiblevegetation

loss

Decrease inbiodiversity

Of acidifyingsubstances (S

& N)

Atmosphericdeposition ofnutrients (N)

change inspecies

composition

incr. heather

decr. grasses incr. fireintolerantspecies

moreblanket bog

species

more herbs

more heather

i

less 'flashy'hydrology

loss ofombrotrophi

c species

• Triangulate conceptual model with stakeholders

(Work in progress)

Changes in attitudes towards shooting

Cultural Change Scenario Ia

Increased Animal Rights Activism

Shooting ban

Less shooting days or disrupted shoots

Cultural Change Scenario IbLess shooting days or disrupted shoots

Less economic returns

Less moorlands managed for grouse

Less game keeping

Fewer and smaller managed burns

See Conservation Scenario Ib “less burned areas”

On Blanket Bog

(If hydrology restored)

Conservation Scenario IbLess burned areas

Increased heather

Decreased grass

Increased fire-intolerant species

Increased biodiversity

On Dry Heath (or if hydrology not restored)

Less short heather

Less ground nesting birds

Less grouse

Less shooting

Go to cultural change scenario Ib “Less economic returns”

More long heather

Uncertain effect on biodiversity

More birds of prey

See next slide

evan

To make the slides work I've split the conservation scenario into two...first a defra one (that is pretty complex) and second a conservation one (that is simpler)

On Dry Heath (or if hydrology not restored)

Less burned areas

More scrub

More broad leafed forest

Less “flashy” hydrology

More attractive landscape

Less attractive landscape

More accidental Fires

Less vegetation

More erosion

More water colour/pollution

Conservation Scenario Ic


• Storyboards presented at focus groups


Tress B, Tress G (2003) Scenario visualisation for participatory landscape planning: a study from Denmark, Landscape and Urban Planning 64: 161–178

• Evaluate & short-list indicators from interviews & literature

• Used in models

• Used by stakeholders

• Scenario’s to vote on in Edale Moorland Centre


• Focus groups: evaluate and short-list scenarios• Management responses to scenarios• Integrated modelling of management responses & indicators• Feedback outputs to focus groups and refine• Short-list most appropriate options

iii) Adaptive responses


iv) Learning Process (1 of 3) .

• Every step of this research is designed to promote learning between: i) different stakeholders; ii) researchers from different disciplines; iii) researchers & stakeholders


• Initial analysis suggests a number of powerful, respected and influential individuals have less extreme views: foci for mediation and diffusion of ideas/attitudes?


Conservation/ Water

FarmingGrouse

• Testing: Social Network Analysis

• Effect of focus group interactions on social networks?

• Who are the central actors?• Who do people trust, share

views with, work with?• Are there groups that are

particularly isolated or poorly connected?



What did we learn?

• We know the cliques and powerful individuals

•Help us in deciding who should be in our future focus group

• Even though burning is a contentious issue there is common ground on wider issues


by DEFRA & SEERAD




• “You can’t get anywhere unless you build up a good relationship with somebody… If you can’t build good working relationships, you might as well go home.”

Conservation Stakeholder


by DEFRA & SEERAD




by DEFRA & SEERAD

Scoping Study Outputs (1 of 3)

Policy:• Methodological framework to predict, monitor and

manage social, economic and environmental change in uplands

• Provide voice for stakeholders to policy-makers• In particular through input to DEFRA’s burning code

review




by DEFRA & SEERAD

Scoping Study Outputs (2 of 3)

Stakeholders:• Dissemination of likely future scenarios and adaptive

management ideas• Information exchange between stakeholder groups• Moors for the Future partnership: strengthened and

extended stakeholder network




by DEFRA & SEERAD

Scoping Study Outputs (3 of 3)Academic:• Methodological framework • Interdisciplinary capacity building• National and international conferences• Papers: 2 in press, 2 in prep., 1 more planned

Reed MS, Fraser EDG & Dougill AJ (in press) An adaptive learning process for developing and applying sustainability indicators with local communities, forthcoming in Ecological Economics

Reed MS, Fraser EDG, Morse S & Dougill AJ (in press) Integrating methods for developing sustainability indicators that can facilitate learning and action, forthcoming in Ecology & Society

Stringer LC, Prell C, Reed MS, Hubacek K et al. [tbc] (in prep.) Unpacking "participation" in the adaptive management of socio-ecological systems: a critical reveiw. Submitting to Journal of Rural Studies

Shotbolt, L., Holden, J., Reed, MS., Stringer, L., Chapman, PJ., Dougill, A., Kirkby, M.J., and Hubacek, K. (in prep.). Scenarios of upland change: reviewing the evidence. Submitting to Environmental Conservation

•Ongoing Research Case Study - Learning from Doing Participatory Rural Research: Lessons from the Peak District National Park, UK •Next (ongoing) stage is the move beyond conceptual models to more formal mathematical (agent-based & environmental) models for predicting future implications of land use change in UK uplands

School of Earth and EnvironmentFACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT

Scenarios Scenarios & Indicators& Indicators

System boundaries & local research

foci

Social Network Maps

Interviews

Current & Future Drivers

Sustainability Goals

Sustainability Indicators

Conceptual model & qualitative scenarios

Quantitative, spatially explicit scenarios

Model outputs for strategies

Stakeholder-Led Site Visits

Draft Concept-ual Model

Stakeholders identified,

described & categorised

Stakeholder revisions & priorities

Innovative management

strategies

ContextContext

Management Management OptionsOptions

Advisory Panel & Co-I

Meetings

Literature Review: key drivers, system components & research foci

ABM rules

Stakeholder evaluations

of model outputs

Refined strategies

Social Learning

Short-List Options

Management & Policy Recommendations

12

Goals, Scenarios & Goals, Scenarios & IndicatorsIndicators

Social Network Data

Grounded Theory

Analysis

Review, test &

short-list indicators

Social Network Analysis

Stakeholder Selection

Evaluate

learning

Focus Group

Run model

Run model

Focus Group

GIS & photo manipulation

Questionnaires

Stakeholder Analysis

Focus Group

Scoping Interviews

Academic Focus Group

Illustrated story-lines

Follow-up interviews

PESERA parameters

Integrated computational

model

Model development

Stakeholder Selection

Next slide

Activities

OutputsKey:

ABM rules

Conceptual model

Agent-Based Model

Future land use GIS

maps

Erosion maps

Water quality

Carbon budget

Soil Organic Matter maps

Initial land use & cover maps

Regional economic

effects

Water quantity

estimates

Soil type, topography, climate etc.

Vegetation cover & biomass

maps

Water quality monitoring

Analysis of questionnaire

s

ABM questionnaire

Run PESERA

Run regional economic

model

Extend PESERA

Run ABM for different

scenarios

Carbon model calibration & validation

Model Model DevelopmentDevelopment

Parameterise PESERA

Run economic, biophysical & ecological

models

1

2

Environmental & economic

implications of scenarios

Scenarios & storylines

Management strategies

Run integrated

model

Focus groups identify & refine strategies

using model outputsActivities

OutputsKey:

Integrated Computational

Model

Distribution maps for BAP focal

spp.

Focal species modelling

Meta-population capacity

modelling

Succ-ession Model

Biodiversity maps

Habitat maps

Grouse Model

Grouse production forecasts

•Ongoing Research Questions •Will this level of integrated modelling add to the predictive power & strength of research arguments significantly enough to justify the extra 3 years of interdisciplinary research effort (c. £800k) ?•Would a larger number of smaller scale studies based on conceptual modelling & participatory methods be more cost-effective?•How much use are the methodological lessons learnt to research in other environments and societal contexts?


•Future Research Challenges for UK Uplands•Quantitative modelling of the various socio-economic & environmental implications of different future scenario’s will require significant interdisciplinary effort between modelling research groups (3 RA’s each with their own disciplinary expertise)

•=> will we all return to our disciplinary ‘comfort zone’?•Retaining engagement of stakeholders as scientific complexity increases will require careful use of identified social networks & dissemination through key local individuals (ie. stakeholder – stakeholder shared learning is more powerful than researcher – stakeholder transfer of knowledge)

Will stakekolders stay engaged despite lack of tangible personal benefits?

Transfer of methodology to 3 other Upland locations in UK & to EU DESIRE project sites across Sn Europe, China & Africa

=> How transferable are approaches?


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