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Transcript of entirely explain the cause-and-effect relations of phenomena, predict these phenomena,
Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006 11
WILL THE PRESENT-DAY WILL THE PRESENT-DAY SCIENTIFIC APPROACHES SCIENTIFIC APPROACHES
ENABLE TO FORECAST ENABLE TO FORECAST NATURAL DISASTERS?NATURAL DISASTERS?
Trahel VardanianTrahel VardanianYerevan State University, ArmeniaYerevan State University, Armenia
Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006 22
In the age of present-day scientific and technical achievements, man’s safety does not seem to be ensured. In particular, it refers to the process of forecasting and managing natural phenomena.
Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006 33
The end of XX century and the beginning of XXI century are distinguished by the abrupt growth of natural phenomena. In this respect, in the recent decades NATO and UN have developed a number of projects and activities, aimed at the possible forecasting of natural phenomena, danger alleviation, as well as removal of consequences.
Today, man is unable to resist to Today, man is unable to resist to numerous natural disasters numerous natural disasters (earthquakes, floods and so on), of (earthquakes, floods and so on), of which he can become a victim any time. which he can become a victim any time. Science has developed thousands of Science has developed thousands of mathematical models of forecasting mathematical models of forecasting natural disasters, which, however, natural disasters, which, however, cannot: cannot:
• entirely explain the cause-and-effect entirely explain the cause-and-effect relations of phenomena, relations of phenomena,
• predict these phenomena, predict these phenomena,
• enable to withstand the expected enable to withstand the expected hazards. hazards.
Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006 55
The reason is that natural The reason is that natural phenomena are:phenomena are:
•multi-factoral,
• they have a complex mechanism, which is like a higher live organism,
• they cannot be managed by any science.
Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006 66
Thus, mathematics cannot forecast these phenomena with its “dead” models, which can be fatal for man. Yet, mathematics has “managed” to make phenomena prediction rigid and bring them to forecasting field, and, by this, to assist to arrive at some solution of this issue.
Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006 77
Now we shall try to create a mathematical schematic model for forecasting some natural phenomena, as well as analyse its possibilities and setbacks.
Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006 88
formed in river basinsformed in river basins
conditioned by water flowconditioned by water flow
dangerous for society anddangerous for society and
environmentenvironment
They are overflowsThey are overflows..
Natural disasters and forming Natural disasters and forming them factors are diverse. them factors are diverse. However, we will introduce the However, we will introduce the ones which are:ones which are:
Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006 99
According to their origin, they can According to their origin, they can
be:be: downpourdownpour
flood (conditioned by snowmelt and ice flood (conditioned by snowmelt and ice melt)melt)
wind-induced surgewind-induced surge
ice-jam and ice-damice-jam and ice-dam
dammed and cut-offdammed and cut-off
Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006 1010
Based on the international researches on the overflows, it became clear that the overflows occupy:
• the first place by the number of the first place by the number of emergence of natural disasters (about emergence of natural disasters (about 40% of all the disasters);40% of all the disasters);
• the second-third place by the number the second-third place by the number of casualty;of casualty;
• the first-third place by the degree of the first-third place by the degree of economic damage (billions of dollars).economic damage (billions of dollars).
Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006 1111
In river basins, according to the In river basins, according to the degree of danger the overflows degree of danger the overflows may be:may be:
weakweak
averageaverage
strongstrong
disastrousdisastrous
Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006 1212
The strong and disastrous overflows The strong and disastrous overflows emerge under the influence of two or more emerge under the influence of two or more factors (for instance, snowmelt + rainfall, factors (for instance, snowmelt + rainfall, downpour + dam destruction, etc.).downpour + dam destruction, etc.).
The downpour is the most widespread The downpour is the most widespread type of overflow. It can take place type of overflow. It can take place everywhere (except for Arctic and everywhere (except for Arctic and Antarctic), even in desert and semi-desert Antarctic), even in desert and semi-desert regions.regions.
Rain overflows are rather dangerous in Rain overflows are rather dangerous in mountainous dry, extreme continental mountainous dry, extreme continental climate regions. They considerably raise climate regions. They considerably raise the level of river water.the level of river water.
Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006 1313
The causes of the emergence of The causes of the emergence of this type of overflows are:this type of overflows are:
• short-term and intense rains (the annual short-term and intense rains (the annual portion of water from the rainfall may portion of water from the rainfall may pour into river basins in single minutes)pour into river basins in single minutes)
• the geological structure of rock basin the geological structure of rock basin (90% of precipitation fallen on (90% of precipitation fallen on impermeable rocks form a flow)impermeable rocks form a flow)
• basin sizebasin size• the declivity of basin slopesthe declivity of basin slopes• the extent of vegetation cover of the basinthe extent of vegetation cover of the basin• the extent of basin dissectionthe extent of basin dissection• the anthropogenic factorthe anthropogenic factor• othersothers
Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006 1414
Downpour overflows usually occupy small Downpour overflows usually occupy small drainage areas (up to 1000 km2) and are drainage areas (up to 1000 km2) and are particularly dangerous for towns and particularly dangerous for towns and rural areas. rural areas.
The threat is doubled due to the increase The threat is doubled due to the increase of the quantity of the hard sediment in of the quantity of the hard sediment in water and mudflow emergence. water and mudflow emergence.
Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006 1515
• Today, having a powerful Today, having a powerful scientific- technical potential and scientific- technical potential and means, in particular, aerial space means, in particular, aerial space researches, photographing researches, photographing surveys, as well as geo-surveys, as well as geo-information system (GIS), man is information system (GIS), man is able not only to forecast but also able not only to forecast but also to prevent natural disasters.to prevent natural disasters.
Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006 1616
All the factors which can cause flood formation and which we had discussed earlier can be classified into the following groups:
• climatic (C);climatic (C);
• physical (Ph);physical (Ph);
• biological (B);biological (B);
• geological (G);geological (G);
• chemical (Ch);chemical (Ch);
• anthropogenic (A) and others.anthropogenic (A) and others.
Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006 1717
These groups of factors are connected to one another by multifunctional mathematical links, i.e., they are to have numeric ranges, which are not always present or reliable.
Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006 1818
Besides, if we establish a link between a natural disaster, in this case, flood (F) and influencing it factors:
Then, at the first sight it seems as if the presence of many factors will reveal the essence of the phenomenon, will raise the degree of reliability of forecasting this disaster.
F = f (C; Ph; B; G; Ch; A; … n)
Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006 1919
That is so, the more factors are observed, the better the revelation will be. That is theoretically true.
However, in practice, when the link between these factors is expressed in mathematical terms, then the correlation coefficient of this link becomes smaller, which means decrease of the degree of reliability. It means, that the language of mathematics is rigid.
Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006 2020
ConclusionsConclusions
• It is necessary to form a It is necessary to form a synthesized sciencesynthesized science (Geography is (Geography is an example of such science),an example of such science), which would comprise all cause-which would comprise all cause-and-effect relations contributing and-effect relations contributing to forecasting of phenomena, and, to forecasting of phenomena, and, what is most important, would what is most important, would “enliven” the rigid mathematical “enliven” the rigid mathematical models used in studying these models used in studying these phenomena. phenomena.
Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006 2121
• It is important to build a geo-It is important to build a geo-physical multi-factor physical multi-factor mathematical mathematical “live” model“live” model able able to operate. The model must have to operate. The model must have the following features:the following features:
• plasticity;plasticity;• flexibility;flexibility;• pulsation;pulsation;• reliability;reliability;• interrelation of links and feedback;interrelation of links and feedback;• cohesion with other models.cohesion with other models.
Solely in case of having these Solely in case of having these features the model will become features the model will become “live”.“live”.
Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006 2222
• The model must be nourished The model must be nourished with the following information with the following information sources:sources:
manned satellites (geo-physical, climatic manned satellites (geo-physical, climatic data as well as maps and photographs)data as well as maps and photographs)
geo-information stationary observation geo-information stationary observation stations located on the Earth (data on stations located on the Earth (data on flow-forming and other factors and others)flow-forming and other factors and others)
Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006 2323
• The model must work by means The model must work by means
of:of:
• data permanently received in the data permanently received in the geo-information systemgeo-information system
• differential series obtained from differential series obtained from the data and multi-factor links the data and multi-factor links formed between themformed between them
Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006 2424
““Live” modelLive” model
Over flowOver flowX
Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006 2525
The model must be very sensitive-to The model must be very sensitive-to be able to fix and analyze any slightest be able to fix and analyze any slightest change of any factor and possible change of any factor and possible consequences. consequences.
The model must be able to define The model must be able to define the factor or factors which for the the factor or factors which for the given time or space may be disastrous.given time or space may be disastrous.
This kind of models can be built This kind of models can be built not only for downpour overflows but not only for downpour overflows but also for any natural disaster (even for also for any natural disaster (even for earthquakes), with consideration of its earthquakes), with consideration of its peculiarities. peculiarities.
Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006 2626
These models can give the These models can give the opportunity to forecast disasters opportunity to forecast disasters and undertake necessary means and undertake necessary means for their prevention.for their prevention.
• Any region must have its Any region must have its characteristic model, each of which characteristic model, each of which can be different, if not divergent. can be different, if not divergent.
Thank you for attentionThank you for attention
Contact address:Contact address:Department of Physical Department of Physical Geography,Geography,Yerevan State University, Yerevan State University, 1, Alek Manoukian Street, 1, Alek Manoukian Street, Yerevan,Yerevan,0025, Republic of Armenia0025, Republic of ArmeniaFax: (374-10) 55-46-41Fax: (374-10) 55-46-41Email: Email: [email protected]@ysu.am