EN_Talk_Weather_Forecasting_Agriculture

Weather forecasting and Sustainable Agriculture

Dr. Rohit SrivastavaIndian Centre for Climate and Societal Impacts Research

(ICCSIR)Mandvi, Kachchh, Gujarat, India

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

Conference of the Parties (COP 22)

Marrakech, Morocco

Weather and Climate

Weather represent the current conditions of Temperature, Rain, Humidity and Wind etc.

Climate represent the average condition of weather

The change in climate also influences the weather condition.

Under changing climate scenario, the weather forecasts are very important for planning.

Dr. Rohit Srivastava (ICCSIR, Mandvi Kachchh India )

Climate change : Causes and Impacts Causes

Natural Cause

Forest fire Volcanic Eruption

Anthropogenic causes

Industrial and vehicular exhaust

Crop residue burning Land use land cover

change


Climate Change

Impacts

Global warming

Glacier melting and Sea level rise

Increasing extreme events (Floods and Droughts)

Decline the agriculture productivity

Climate change and Agriculture


Agriculture

Soil and Water

degradation

Evaporation

Crop pattern

Food Security

Influence the

productivity

Declination farmers’ Income

Agriculture Inputs

Disaster Catastrophes

Climate Resilient Agriculture (CRA)


CRA

Soil and water

quality status

Weather forecasting and Agro-

met advisory

Weather warning

and alert

Farmers management

training

Crop insurance

Information Dissemination

Cattle health

Satellite monitoring

of crops

Southwest monsoon forecast 2016

डॉ रोहि�त श्रीवास्तव (ICCSIR, मांडवी कच्छ गुजरात )

June : Less rain 10 %

July : Normal rain (+5 %)

August : Normal Rain (+8 %)

September : Above Normal Rain (+15 %)

Forecasted on April, 2016


Monsoon 2016 : 01 June – 21 September 2016

डॉ रोहि�त श्रीवास्तव (ICCSIR, मांडवी कच्छ गुजरात )

Whole India 3% less rain.

Kachchh and Saurastra regions 13% less rain.

East, north and south Gujarat : 24% less rain.

Maharashtra region : 4 – 10% more rain


Complexity in weather forecastsDeterministic: All data is known beforehand. Once you start

the system, you know exactly what is going to happen.

Example: Predicting the amount of money in a bank account.

If you know the initial deposit, and the interest rate, then: You

can determine the amount in the account after one year.

Probabilistic: Element of chance is involved.

You know the likelihood that something will happen, but you

don’t know when it will happen.

Example: Roll a die until it comes up ‘5’. Know that in each

roll, a ‘6’ will come up with probability 1/6.

Don’t know exactly when, but we can predict well.डॉ रोहि�त श्रीवास्तव (ICCSIR, मांडवी कच्छ गुजरात )Dr. Rohit Srivastava (ICCSIR, Mandvi Kachchh India )

ICCSIR's Weekly weather forecast Bulletin

ICCSIR disseminates weekly weather forecast on each Tuesday The forecasted and observed

rainfall are found the have correlations in the range of 75% to 85% at different locations.

For other parameters the correlations are greater than 80%.

The ICCSIR's weather bulletin was found to be useful in planning different activities according to the weather conditions.

Under heavy rain condtions, people will be well prepared and catastrophe will reduced.

The weather forecasts data are obtained from different forecasting agencies of India.

डॉ रोहि�त श्रीवास्तव (ICCSIR, मांडवी कच्छ गुजरात )Dr. Rohit Srivastava (ICCSIR, Mandvi Kachchh India )

Continuous measurements of weather parameters

ICCSIR has installed Automatic Weather Station (AWS) for Continuous measurements of weather parameters.

Continuous measurements will be very useful in planning different activities

For better prediction Continuous measurements are very important


स्वचालि�त मौसम केन्द्र (Automatic Weather Station (AWS)) नेटवक�


Improving the weather forecasts

Weather forecasting Model simulations will be

assimilated with the real measurements; and 3 to 5

days forecasts will be obtained and provided to

farmers at village/ block level.

Agromet advisory with the help of experts /

scientists will be generated and disseminated.


Thank You

Dr. Rohit SrivastavaICCSIR, Mandvi (Kachchh ),Gujarat, India

Phone No. : +91 2834 – 224024Email : [email protected]

Web : http://www.iccsir.orgFacebook: http://www.facebook.com/iccsir

Rukmavati River Basin Kachchh


Status of Soil Conditions


Monitoring using sattelite


EN_Talk_Weather_Forecasting_Agriculture

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