Ensuring Safe Airports: Modeling Resilience of Airport ...€¦ · Airport Facility Asset Mapping....

Ensuring Safe Airports: Modeling Resilience of Airport Infrastructure to Extreme Weather Related Storm Surge ThreatsApplication of System Dynamics to Multi-asset Facility Response under Storm Surge Threats

Frederick Kautz, Rajib Mallick, and Michael Radzicki

INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON HIGHWAY PAVEMENTS & AIRFIELD TECHNOLOGY 2017

Problem Statement

Develop a practical and implementable methodology that could be used and continuously improved by coastal airports and other critical infrastructure operators to

‒ Evaluate the Integrity and Resiliency of their infrastructure assets Different types of assets Assets are interdependent Assets have different critical elevation levels for flooding

‒ Understand cascading failure modes for an airport system of systems‒ Explore the effectiveness of current flooding response plans in light of

the dynamics of the airport system and nearby commercial areas‒ Explore the effectiveness of various mitigation measures

2 INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON HIGHWAY PAVEMENTS & AIRFIELD TECHNOLOGY 2017

Defining Resiliency

“Resiliency is the ability of a system to withstand a major disruption within acceptable degradation parameters, recover within an acceptable time, and balance composite costs and risks.”

• How do we protect coastal aviation facilities against long-term sea-level rise, storm surges, intense storm events, and other unplanned events and threats?

• How do we maintain and restore operational capabilities during and after disruptive events?

• How do we implement a balanced composite cost and risk plan?


4

Resilience as Capacity Measures


(adapted from Vugrin et al., 2010)

Solution Approach• View the infrastructure assets as part of a System of Systems• Consider that the behavior of the system is a function of the assets and

their interdependencies (structure drives behavior)• Group assets into functional sectors• Link the sectors• Model the interdependencies between assets and sectors to

‒ Provide a dynamic view of integrity and resilience of the entire system‒ Establish the response of the system under various storm/climate threat

scenarios‒ Determine the effectiveness of mitigation measures (in place or under

review)


Airport Facility Asset Mapping


Lowest Critical Elevation or asset first floor*

Sector # Sector frame Array Array elements Building # (ft NAVD88)

runway 15R 33L 10.00runway 15L 33R 10.00runway 22R 4L 10.00

1 Aviation operations 3 Aviation operations inundation runway 22L 4R 10.00runway 27 9 10.00runway 32 14 10.00Airfield electrical and NAVAIDs 10.00ATC tower 26 11.37ATC tower substation 26 12.45ATC tower MPA generator 26 13.30Airfield lighting vault 66 14.61

Wood Is substation 2 11.152 Electrical distribution 3 Electrical distribution inundation Harbor substation 32 15.50

Porter St substation 41 10.98Bird Is substation 67 14.73

3 Telecom and IT 3 Telecom and IT inundation MPA admin bldg (pier D) 25 14.59Airport office center 65 13.28

iThink model

....Jeffries Pt population 10.00

17 Adjacent town population 1 Adjacent neighborhood populations Eagle Hill population 10.00Orient Hts population 10.00

Basic building blocks of System Dynamics models

StocksPurpose: Stocks are accumulations. They collect/discharge whatever flows into/out of them

FlowsPurpose: To fill and drain stocks. The arrow indicates the direction of the flow

ConvertersPurpose: Converts inputs to outputs - can hold values for constants, define external inputs to the model, perform algebraic calculations

ConnectorsPurpose: Connect model elements (information or material transfer)

Rate

Lev el

Calculation

Lev el

Calculation


8

Two-Sector Demonstrator Model


Infrastructure Risk Storm Surge Model

Facility Resilience

Resilience Capacity

Resiliency Spend

Facility Vulnerability

Exposure Index

Aviation Operations asset integrity

Electrical Distribution asset integrity

9

Storm Surge Model

LCEi

Sea/ref level

DFL FAIL

DFL(t)


Asset Integrity Measures

AIi = 1 -DFL i(t)DFL i FAIL

Aii,j = 1 -DFL i(t)DFL i FAIL

1 -DFL j(t)DFL j FAIL

Aii,j,k = 1 -DFL i(t)DFL i FAIL

1 -DFL j(t)DFL j FAIL

1 -DFL k(t)DFL k FAIL

Single asset (independent)

Asset i dependence on Asset j

Asset i dependence on Assets j and k


11

Sector and Asset InterdependenciesIllustrative


12

Sector and Asset Interdependencies (cont’d)


Model Demo


RunwayATC tower elec substationATC tower operationsAirfield lighting

Electrical substations

14

Storm surge level = 15 ft

1.00 10.40 19.80 29.20 38.60 48.00

1:

1:

1:

2:

2:

2:

3:

3:

3:

4:

4:

4:

0

10

20

0.0

0.5

1.0

1: Flood Level 2: runway oper…way 15R 33L AI] 3: ATC tower op…s asset integrity 4: airfield lighting asset integrity

1

1

1

1

1

2

2 2

2 23 3 3 3 34

4

4 4 4

Storm Surge Impact on Asset IntegrityATC tower LCE + 4 ft barrier


Hours

Asse

t int

egrit

y [0

, 1]

Stor

m su

rge

leve

l (ft

)

15

1.00 10.40 19.80 29.20 38.60 48.00

1:

1:

1:

2:

2:

2:

3:

3:

3:

4:

4:

4:

0

10

20

0.0

0.5

1.0


1

1

1

1

1

2

2 2

2 23 3 3 3 34

4

4

4 4

Storm Surge Impact on Asset IntegrityStorm surge level = 16 ft ATC tower LCE + 4 ft barrier


Hours

Asse

t int

egrit

y [0

, 1]

Stor

m su

rge

leve

l (ft

)

16

4 55 PM T D 01 2015P 1

1.00 10.40 19.80 29.20 38.60 48.00

H

1:

1:

1:

2:

2:

2:

3:

3:

3:

4:

4:

4:

0

10

20

0.0

0.5

1.0


1

1

1

1

1

2

2 2 2

23

3

3

3 34

4 4

4 4

Storm Surge Impact on Asset IntegrityStorm surge level = 19 ft ATC tower LCE + 4 ft barrier


Hours

Asse

t int

egrit

y [0

, 1]

Stor

m su

rge

leve

l (ft

)

Substation downtime vs LCE add-on


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5

Subs

tatio

n do

wnt

ime,

hrs

LCE adder, ft

Downtime vs Elevation for 20 ft Storm Surge

Asset Downtime vs Storm Surge Height


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Dow

ntim

e, h

ours

Maximum Storm Surge Height, ft

RunwayATC TowerAirfield Lighting VaultSubstation

Data Gaps Revealed in Model Development• LCE (Lowest Critical Elevation) for selected airport facility assets

‒ Runways‒ Stormwater management‒ Airport access corridors‒ Adjacent neighborhoods, facilities, major rail and road arteries

• Asset failure depths/modes under flooding conditions• Asset post-flooding recovery (degradation, time to recovery, loss likelihood)• Asset interdependencies, redundancies, and backup (particularly for power)• Utility power services/backup to airport assets and adjacent facilities, communities

• Flood barriers/mitigation technology by asset/site (including pumping capacity)• Designated evacuation corridors and timelines for storm surge/flood response


Benefits of the Adopted Approach• Scenario analysis of cascading failures and recovery dynamics• Capture of dynamic dependencies, feedback, and failure modes• Simulation of mitigation measures (flood barriers, dry vs wet floodproofing, etc.)

under storm surge and other climatological threat conditions• Emergency response training, staging of resources for threat conditions, and

decision support• Identification of

‒ Critical areas‒ Leverage points

Improvement in Resilience of the system Continuous improvement of the approach More efficient use of limited resources Guidance for data acquisition and analysis


Thank you!


Ensuring Safe Airports: Modeling Resilience of Airport ...€¦ · Airport Facility Asset Mapping....

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