Ensuring livestock livelihoods and animal source food security

20th IMS World Meat Congress, Beijing, China, 14–16 June 2014

Steve Staal Representative for E and SE Asia ILRI

Outline

• Growing demand • Role of smallholder producers• Importance of livestock for smallholder

producers • Smallholder competitiveness• Key constraints• The trajectories for livestock development• Ensuring the continued role of livestock in rural

development

Animal agriculture to 2050: TRENDS

GLOBAL TRENDS:

• Livestock have played a key role in people’s livelihoods for millennia

• Unprecedented rising demand for livestock commodities will continue over the coming 5 decades

• Where and how most livestock commodities are produced, sold and consumed is changing significantly; much of it still smallholder

Rosegrant et al. 2009

90% of livestock production will occur in same country products are consumed (IMPACT)

Consumption of meat and milk in developing countries is forecast to increase faster than that for any crop product.(IAASTD)

Now and into the future: Demand-driven livestock revolution

Livestock in developing countries

70% of the world’s livestock (18.5 billion head) are in developing countries and the share is growing

FAO

Livestock keepers in developing countries

Density of poor livestock keepers

One billion people earning <$2 a day depend on livestock:• 600 million in South Asia• 300 million in sub-Saharan Africa

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Density of poor livestock keepers

ILRI, 2012

Livestock and livelihoods

• 70% of the world’s rural poor rely on livestock for important parts of their livelihoods.

• Of the 600 million poor livestock keepers in the world, around two-thirds are rural women.

• Over 100 million landless people keep livestock.

• For the vulnerable, up to 40% of benefits from livestock keeping come from non-market, intangible benefits, mostly insurance and financing.

• In the poorest countries, livestock manure comprises over 70% of soil fertility amendments.

• Many employed in local informal livestock product markets

Livestock multiplies rural incomes

• Rural income multipliers are higher for livestock than for other commodities (3x in sub-Saharan Africa) and higher even thannon-agricultural activities.

Livestock for nutrition

• In developing countries, livestock contribute 6−36% of protein and 2−12% of calories.

• Livestock provide food for at least 830 million food-insecure people.

• Small amounts of animal-source foods have large benefits on child growth and cognition and on pregnancy outcomes.

Most food of the world is producedon small mixed crop-and-livestock farms

Developing-country mixed crop-livestock systems, most of them smallholders, supplythe large proportionof livestock products

Percent of production from smallholders

BMGF, FAO and ILRI

Smallholders still dominate production in many counties

Smallholder competitiveness

• The “household model” of production (multiple objectives, multiple benefits).

• Multiple benefits, maximum use of low cost resources and farm synergies, interactions, not completely dependent on profits, up to 40% non-market “return”

• The large scale “enterprise model” of production (1 objective and benefit=profit)

• Capital intensive , mechanization and economies of scale advantages only work when labor costs are high

• Multiple studies across continents demonstrates reasons for underlying competitiveness

• limited economies of scale in production• Often comparable unit costs of production, small vs large• Fresh product markets also buffer import competition

Opportunity costs of labor determine scale of production

Source: Project on Transregonal Analysis of Crop-Livestock intensification, ILRI 2002

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Cattle herd size and rural wages

Smallholder investment rationale

• Does not require sentimentality or a belief in “small is beautiful”

• Is simply based on the evidence and the dual objectives of – increasing animal source food supply to consumers,

– supporting rural development and livelihoods

• The evidence:– They produce the bulk of the livestock products in developing country so

need to be part of increase supply strategy

– They continue to be competitive so wont go away on their own

– Does not detract from investing in larger commercial systems

Many attempts to improve smallholder production have failed

We failed to take sufficient account of the realities of the users −the world’s small-scalelivestock producers:

• Environment• Climate• Feeds available• Endemic diseases• Local market context• State of infrastructure• Institutions

Productivity gaps and constraints

• Productivity gap estimates:– up to 130% in beef, 430% in milk, even among

existing breeds.

• Short-term constraints:Estimates suggest typical 50−70% deficits in feed relative to genetic potential.

• Longer term constraints:Animal diseases cause mortality and low productivity: – e.g. East Coast fever, trypanosomosis,

Newcastle disease– In some systems, up to 20% mortality in

adults, much higher in young animals.

Multiple factors contributing to under-performance

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Growing local markets but mostly informal

• Large share of developing country livestock product markets are traditional/informal (80−90%).

• Domestic markets dominate: Opportunities for exports are limited by SPS and quality standards, but also price.

• ‘Supermarketization’ threatens smallholder market participation, although smaller impact on fresh foods.

Demand for safety & quality drives formal and informal markets

Increased level ofsafety

Increased consumer purchasing power/income

Market will not

enforce public standards

Market may impose higher private standards

Market driven standards are like death and taxes: impossible to avoid

Raising awareness and social marketing can raise demand for safety

Official public standards

Mostly formal markets

Mostly informal markets

Greatest burden of zoonoses falls onone billion poor livestock keepers

Map by ILRI, from original in a report to DFID: Mapping of Poverty and Likely Zoonoses Hotspots, 2012

Trajectories of growth for the livestock sectorStrong growthIntensifying and increasingly market oriented often transforming smallholder systems

Fragile growthWhere remoteness, marginal land resources or agro climatic vulnerability restrict intensification

High growthwith externalitiesIntensified livestock systems with diverse challenges including the environment and human health

Many areas of intervention

MarketsInstitutions

Policies

Animal health★Vaccines

★Diagnostics★Delivery systems

Markets & institutions★New business arrangements

★Good access to markets

Health & nutrition★Risk- not rule-based regulations

★Controlled zoonoses★Balanced diets

Environment★High feed efficiency★Wide use of crop

residues

Feed★Viable feed markets

★Improved feeds/feed strategies★Judicious biomass use

Genetics★Improved local

breeds★Breeds well-matched

to environments

New genomic toolsBREEDS and ANIMAL HEALTH

Gene editing: Tools based on newly discovered bacterial molecular defence systems that allow quick, efficient and precise gene editing in any cell or species.

Can be used to explore and develop new vaccines

Can greatly improve traits of interest using existing within-species variation for rapid, high-precision cross-breeding.

OpportunitiesFOOD-FEED CROPS

• Genetic tools can also be used to develop crop varieties with improved residue quality• 3% increase in digestibility = 7%

increase in productivity (sorghum)

• Rice straw next target• Huge potential impact across large part

of Ais

• Potential environmental ‘win-win’• Fewer GHG emissions compared to

burning or decomposition

OpportunitiesMARKETS

• Target the S&MSE in livestock markets that dominate many markets and often ignored

• Upgrade local and informal markets for greater food safety, quality and economic performance• An evolutionary approach

• BDS approach through capacity building

• Bring business models into collective organisations

• Start with the much larger DOMESTIC markets

We can and should include smallholders in the response to rising demand for animal-source foods

Increase production to benefit poor people and the planet

• People: Equity– more product for the market = more income– more benefits for women, who make up 2/3

of the 1 billion poor reliant on livestock

• People: Health and nutrition– more available and affordable

animal-source foods– more balanced diets– risk-based food safety policies

• Planet: Environment– greater efficiency– fewer animals– smaller footprint– reduced GHGs

Key messages

1 Unprecedented demand for animal-source foods in developing countries will continue to rise

2 Most meat, milk and eggs in developing countries come from smallholders and are produced and consumed in the same country

3 Big transitions in the world’s smallholder livestock systems present big opportunities to address both technical and institutional issues, benefiting both people and planet

4 Working with and through both smallholder and commercial systems will both improve animal-source food supply and transform rural livelihoods

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