Ensuring food security under a changing climate & the potential of wheat in Africa: Perspectives...
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http://wheat.org
Wheat in Africa A Prospective from CIMMYT
Dr. Thomas Lumpkin CIMMYT Director General Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 8 October 2012
Global Food Security Borlaug’s 1969 Prophecy
“The seriousness or magnitude of the world food problem should not be underestimated. Recent success in expanding wheat, rice and maize production in Asian countries offers the possibility of buying 20-30 years of time” N.E. Borlaug, 1969 – A Green Revolution Yields a Golden Harvest
CIMMYT’s Mission…
Sustainably increase the productivity
of maize and wheat systems to ensure
global food security and reduce poverty
Lead Center for WHEAT
Global Food Security Converging Challenges > Food
> Climate Change < Water < Petroleum < Soil Fertility < Biodiversity
= / > Food
Red dashed vertical lines correspond to beginning dates of “food riots” and protests associated with overall death toll reported in parentheses [26–55].
Global Food Security Food Prices and Social Unrest
Wheat in Africa Population Increases
UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (2008) Population Division, World Population Prospects.
Wheat in Africa Imports and Rising Demand
Today Africa pays >$12 billion to import 30 millions tons of wheat
By 2050, North African wheat imports are projected to reach 25 million tons, SSA 35 million tons
By 2050, African countries will spend an >$24 billion for importing 60 million tons of wheat
Wheat in Africa Exports (Import) of Main Cereals (Sub-Saharan Africa)
Based on FAOSTAT Sept 2012
Source: Weigand, US Wheat Associates, 2011
Wheat in Africa Imports and Rising Demand
Wheat in Africa Potential for Increased Wheat Production
Simulated wheat yield under 100% of the recommended levels of fertilizer use (kg/ha)
CGIAR Strategy The CGIAR Research Program (CRP) on WHEAT
Expected Impact
An added value of wheat produced equaling USD 1.3 billion by 2020.
An additional USD 8.1 billion in wheat produced by 2030.
Enough wheat to feed an additional 56 million consumers by 2020.
Wheat to feed an additional 397 million by 2030.
Breaking the wheat yield barrier by 50%.
http://wheat.org
CGIAR Strategy The CGIAR Research Program on WHEAT
Implementers
CGIAR: CIMMYT, ICARDA, IFPRI, ILRI, and IRRI, CCAFS, GCP, HarvestPlus
85 National Agricultural Research Institutes
11 Regional and international organizations
69 Universities and advanced research institutes
14 Private sector organizations
14 NGOs and farmer cooperatives
20 Host countries
http://wheat.org
Strategy WHEAT has Strategic Partnerships
CAADP – CGIAR Alignment: Greater connectivity and focus between CAADP and the CGIAR research programs (CRPs), to bridge the gap between African demand for technical support and CGIAR
African Development Bank Support: Support to Agricultural Research for Development on Strategic Commodities in Africa (SARD-SC) including wheat.
Need for alignment is recognized!
Wheat Rust – Partnerships with Results Africa: Critical for Global Rust Control
Ug99: present in 11 countries
Stem rust: >80% of global commercial wheat cultivars are susceptible to stem rust
Stripe rust: Global epidemics: Losses > $1 billion
2012 – Hidase Ogolcho
2011 – Gambo Hoggana Shorima Huluka
2010 – Danda’a Kakaba
2012 – Kenya Tae Kenya Sunbird
Kenya Wren Kenya Korongo Kenya Kingbird Kenya Hawk12 2011 – Robin
Eagle 10
Wheat Rust – Partnerships with Results African Wheat Research Influences the Africa - BGRI
Significant progress by Kenyan and Ethiopian breeding programs (post Ug99 investments)
Ethiopia (EIAR): 8 rust resistant cultivars (Ug99 + Yellow rust) released 2010-12
Kenya (KARI): 8 rust resistant cultivars (Ug99 + Stripe rust) released 2011-12
By 2013, Kenya and Ethiopia will have enough rust resistant seed to replace susceptible varieties
Wheat Rust – Partnerships with Results African Wheat Research Influences the World - BGRI
Two International rust screening nurseries – KARI/CIMMYT Njoro,
Kenya (Bread wheat)
– EIAR/CIMMYT Debre Zeit, Ethiopia (Durum wheat)
250,000+ global lines from 32 countries screened against stem rust (Ug99)
Njoro, Kenya - Lines evaluated (2005-2012)
Capacity Building Training at CIMMYT (1968-20120
66 Ethiopian nationals in long-term wheat training
35 Visiting Scientists from Ethiopia in the Global Wheat Program
381 African scientists trained at CIMMYT since 1968 (long-term wheat breeding, agronomy, pathology, and quality)
Rust courses in Kenya with BGRI (2009-2012) – 45 African scientists trained
– 16 from Ethiopia
Lutangu Makweti, trainee Wheat Improvement Course, Obregon, Mexico,
2012
Conclusion Key Points
Significant potential to increase African wheat production and reduce dependence on imports and price fluctuations.
>$12 billion to import 30 millions tons of wheat.
Wheat production needs regional cooperation and strengthened scientific capacity, seed companies, milling and processing.
Joint priorities need to be established to rapidly make progress.
Africa Wheat The Big Question