Ensuring ecosystem integrity in Indian Sundarbans

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A creek in Sundarban with mangrove

Mangroves are basically found in river deltas, lagoons and estuarine complexes.

Mangrove forests comprises of taxonomically diverse plant groups which are salt-tolerant trees, shrubs, ferns and palms.

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Indian Sundarbans and protection regime

Ecological Significance of the Sundarbans

• Amongst the largest mangrove patches in the world

• Globally, 4.3% of mangroves are in the Sundarbans

• Rich biodiversity; flora, fauna, terrestrial and aquatic

• Only coastal tiger habitat with a large population of tigers

• World Heritage Site

• Biosphere Reserve

Endowed Ecosystem and Dependency

3% of faunal species in India

Mammals: 12%Aves: 19%

Reptiles:15%Fish:14%

Spiders:11%Polychaetes:11%Crustacea:10%

Directly supports about 1.3 million people

through subsistence activities

15 April 2023 - 6

Resource Base

• Nursery for the commercial fisheries of

Bay of Bengal.

• Annual marine fish catch amounts to

60, 000 tons a year.

• West Bengal contributes significantly to

the total marine fish landings in country.

• Pelagic species form the bulk of the

state’s total landing tonnage.

• 1000-1400 tons of mud crabs are

landed annually.

• 80% shrimp farming from the state and

second largest prawn producer after

Andhra Pradesh.

• 308685 kg honey valuing INR 16112084

was collected over a period of 14 years.

Vulnerability context in Sundarbans

• Climate change impacts

• High Population growth

• Development constraints

• High Eco resource dependence

• High Human wildlife conflict

• Recurring disasters and impact on humans

Population in Indian Sundarbans Delta

0

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

1981 1991 2001 2010(projected)

The externalities in which people exist

The Relative Comprehensiveness ofIPCC WG1 AR5

• The IPCC assess scientific, technical and socio-economic information concerning climate change, its potential effects and options for adaptation and mitigation.

• Fifth Assessment Report (AR5): AR5 provides a clear and up to date view of the current state of scientific knowledge relevant to climate change.

Global context: IPCC AR5- How warm will it get?

• Likely to exceed 1.5°C (and 2°C) for all new IPCC scenarios except the lowest (called RCP2.6)

• Warming will continue beyond 2100 under all RCP scenarios except RCP2.6

• Warming likely to exceed 4°C by 2100 for highest of new IPCC scenarios (RCP8.5)

• If carbon cycle feedbacks include range of warming is higher

• 2.5-5.6°C in 2081-2100 above 1986-2005 or 3.1-6.2°C above pre-industrial

15 April 2023 - 10

Global context: IPCC AR5- Sea level rise

• Global mean sea level will continue to rise during the 21st century– Under all RCP scenarios the rate of sea level rise will very

likely exceed that observed during 1971–2010

– 0.5 to 1m rise by 2100 projected for highest IPCC scenario (RCP8.5)

– 0.26 to 0.55m rise by 2100 projected for lowest IPCC scenario (RCP2.6)

• Among the eight key threats identified with high confidence by the IPCC in WGII AR5, five pose clear and present danger. Each of these key risks contributes to one or more RFCs (reasons for concern),

Situation analysis in Sundarbans

i. Risk of death, injury, ill-health, or disrupted livelihoods in low-lying coastal zones and small island developing states and other small islands, due to storm surges, coastal flooding, and sea-level rise. [RFC 1-5]

ii. Systemic risks due to extreme weather events leading to breakdown of infrastructure networks and critical services such as electricity, water supply, and health and emergency services. [RFC 2-4]

Situation analysis contd.

iii. Risk of food insecurity and the breakdown of food systems linked to warming, drought, flooding, and precipitation variability and extremes, particularly for poorer populations in urban and rural settings. [RFC 2-4]

iv. Risk of loss of rural livelihoods and income due to insufficient access to drinking and irrigation water and reduced agricultural productivity, particularly for farmers … with minimal capital. [RFC 2 and 3]

v. Risk of loss of marine and coastal ecosystems, biodiversity, and the ecosystem goods, functions, and services they provide for coastal livelihoods, especially for fishing communities. [RFC 1, 2, and 4]

15 April 2023 - 13

Vulnerability context / Climate Change Impacts in Sundarbans

• Sea level rise 1990-2000: 3.14 mm/year

• Sea level rise 2000-2009: 8 mm/year

• Net land loss 2000-2009: 65 sq.km

• 26% rise in frequency of high to very high intensity cyclones:1881-2001

Vulnerability context / Ecological Threats in Sundarbans: Ocean acidification

1. Sea surface temperature: Rising trend at a

rate of 0.0453 °C/Yr, almost doubled the rate

observed (0.019 °C/Yr) during the period

1985-2000.

2. Ongoing decrease in the pH of the

Earth's oceans, caused by their uptake

of anthropogenic carbon dioxide from

the atmosphere.

3. Acid-base imbalance.

4. Direct impact on Phytoplankton & Fish.

Birds: 75

Herpetofauna: 41

Crustacea: 288

Indirect Im

pact on

Negative reinforcement in Sundarbans

15 April 2023 - 15

To catch 1 tiger prawn seed: collectors destroy

161 juveniles of other prawns,

7 fishes30 crabs

1 molluscs 8 unidentified

meroplanktons

Destructive prawn seed collection

Offences registered in connection with natural

resource extraction

Sl No. Registered Offence 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12

1Prosecution Offence Reports (in Nos)

24 14 15 22 12 14 14 13 4 11 16 6

2Compound Offence Reports (in Nos)

361 384 640 679 983 1462 2427 2086 1490 1684 1957 2221

3Unidentified Offence Reports (in Nos)

106 177 189 173 149 150 121 82 91 69 72 81

4Quantity of Timber Seized (Sawn and Log) m3

90.12 49.25 55.62 26.13 33.41 5.52 7.90 5.11 3.13 0.5 nil225

Quintals of Fuel wood.

2000

-200

1

2001

-200

2

2002

-200

3

2003

-200

4

2004

-200

5

2005

-200

6

2006

-200

7

2007

-200

8

2008

-200

9

2009

-201

0

2010

-201

1

2011

-201

2

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

COR (in Nos)

Negative reinforcement in Sundarbans

Downward spiral of environment in Sundarbans

• The state of West Bengal, India contributed just under 7% of the total marine landings in 2007

• Reduced: 5% in 2011-2012

Sundarbans Biodiversity: Threat matrix

ThreatsMicrobes

Algae

Phytoplanktons

Lichens

Mangrove

Non-Mangrove

Mollusca

Protozoa

Polychaetes

Crustacea

Xiphosurans

Insects

Mites

Spiders Fish Herpet

ofaunaAve

s

Mammals

Pollution                                    

Prawn seed collection

                                   

Resource extraction within PA

                                   

Upstream Fresh water diversion and extraction

                                   

Lack of baseline data for sustainable utilization

                                   

Relative sea level rise & Net land loss

                                   

Ocean acidification due to increased CO2

                                   

High intensity events

                                   

Sundarbans: Business as usual scenario

Threat Category Ecosystems Large Fauna Small Fauna (including aquatic)

Vegetation Microbes

Sea Level Rise Loss of Coastal mangroves

Inward/Upland Migration

Local Extinctions Loss of vegetated habitats

Local Extinctions

Increased Atmospheric CO2

Fertilization effect -- Depletion in fish stocks

Changes in community structure and composition; reduced primary productivity

Life cycle changes/ local extinctions

Reduced freshwater inflow

Alteration of ecological patterns and processes

Aquatic fauna may change its range

Local Extinctions Changes in mangrove composition and distribution

--

Encroachment/ land use change

Loss of ecosystems Impact on breeding Restricted distribution; local extinctions

Loss of carbon sequestration potential

Local extinctions

High intensity events

Damage to ecosystems

Migration Migration Partial loss to vegetation

Population decline

Resource extraction

-- Disturbance Disturbance Partial damage to vegetated habitats

--

Wildlife harvesting -- Endangered populations

Local extinctions -- --

KeySevere ImpactModerate ImpactLow Impact

Food security threatened: Severe decrease in per capita calories availability

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2010

2050 (no climate change)

2050 (with climate change)

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Identify Ecosystem Linkers and prepare Species Adaptation Plan for Sundarbans

Expanding the asset base

• Diversification of crops over space and time

• Intensive poultry and fishery management

• Water & Energy efficiency

• Access to energy

Agro ecosystem resilience

Expanding the asset base

• Introduce community-based mangrove restoration programs

• Value addition

• Improved access to material assets

• Improved capacity of households to turn assets into income

• Access to health and sanitation

Livelihood resilience

Expanding the asset base

• Links between producers and /or regional markets and capacities for marketing

• Introduce economic incentives based on carbon financing

• Alignment with national programs and policies

• Improved capacity to learn and innovate

• Effective information channels

Institutional resilience

Reference

• Turn Down The Heat: Why a 4oC World Must Be Avoided. Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics, gGmbH, Berlin. http://www.slideshare.net/theclimateinstitute/turn-down-the-heat-why-a-4c-warmer-world-must-be-avoided?next_slideshow=1

• Key Findings of the IPCC WG1 AR5. Fredolin Tangang, IPCC WG1 Vice-Chair. https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/presentations/ar5/wg1/WGIAR5_IPCC_Jakarta2.pdf

• World Bank. 2014. Building resilience for sustainable development of the sundarbans : strategy report. Washington, DC: World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/01/20162806/building-resilience-sustainable-development-sundarbans-strategy-report

• Rest data and photographs have been generated from the authors incumbency in Indian Sundarbans for last five years.

Thank you

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