ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS Hazel H. Reinhardt January 21, 2014 June 15, 2015.
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Transcript of ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS Hazel H. Reinhardt January 21, 2014 June 15, 2015.
MARSHALL PUBLIC SCHOOLS
ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONSHazel H. Reinhardt
January 21, 2014June 15, 2015
SUMMARYIn the past ten years, enrollment increased 1.2
percent The district’s school age population increased 1.8
percent while resident enrollment in the Marshall Public Schools increased 2.8 percent The Marshall Public Schools’ share increased but is
lower than some comparable communities due to the high percentage of students in nonpublic settings, but similar to state wide average
The Marshall Public Schools are a net gainer among the various public school options
SUMMARYAll four enrollment projections show enrollment
increasing. In ten years, the projected increase ranges from 18.6 percent to 23.3 percent Enrollment increases at all levels (elementary, middle and
high school) Caution: Projections assume that Grade 9 will be 42-43
percent larger than Grade 8 due to nonpublic students or other students entering high school If that rate is lower, the overall rate of growth will be lower
The district will need more single-family detached housing units to house the projected enrollment increase 2014—needs more units, not just single-family detached
TOTAL ENROLLMENT HISTORYK-12 TOTAL ENROLLMENT
2004-05 2,187
2005-06 2,190
2006-07 2,182
2007-08 2,224
2008-09 2,170
2009-10 2,136
2010-11 2,168
2011-12 2,206
2012-13 2,216
2013-14 2,214
2014-15 2,293Excludes Early Childhood and MECLA
COMPONENTS OF ENROLLMENT CHANGE
Fall to FallTotal Natural
Increase/Decrease
NetMigration# %
2004 to 2005 3 0.1 -68 71
2005 to 2006 -8 -0.3 -83 75
2006 to 2007 42 1.9 -86 128
2007 to 2008 -54 -2.4 -99 45
2008 to 2009 -34 -1.6 -48 14
2009 to 2010 32 1.5 -37 69
2010 to 2011 38 1.8 -18 56
2011 to 2012 10 0.5 7 3
2012 to 2013 -2 --- -27 25
2013 to 2014 79 3.6% 18 61
EDUCATION CHOICES2011-12
Minnesota Marshall
Nonpublic settings 10.0% 16.3%
Traditional schools
8.1% 14.9%
Home schools 1.9% 1.3%
Public Options
Open enrollment 6.4%
In 10.2%
Out 6.1%
Charter schools 4.1% ---
Capture Rate 78.8% 77.7%
TOTAL ENROLLMENTGrad
e2004-
052005-
062006-
072007-
082008-
092009-
102010-
112011-
122012-
132013-
14
K 134 166 150 176 144 164 168 186 186 184
1 144 131 151 161 161 131 165 162 181 175
2 148 132 130 154 167 154 133 159 155 182
3 125 148 133 138 147 157 152 131 163 155
4 153 127 145 146 140 142 153 163 129 160
5 134 151 129 146 145 133 142 150 157 145
6 123 129 145 137 138 149 132 140 146 151
7 141 129 131 145 141 134 147 139 147 148
8 175 143 128 135 153 143 141 149 132 160
9 219 222 215 204 188 224 203 202 203 194
10 236 228 223 209 215 193 233 213 201 199
11 221 251 240 230 219 207 195 233 205 186
12 234 233 262 243 212 205 204 179 211 175
Total
2,187
2,190
2,182
2,224
2,170
2,136
2,168
2,206
2,216
2,214
TOTAL ENROLLMENTGrad
e2005-
062006-
072007-
082008-
092009-
102010-
112011-
122012-
132013-
142014-15
K 166 150 176 144 164 168 186 186 184 193
1 131 151 161 161 131 165 162 181 175 177
2 132 130 154 167 154 133 159 155 182 170
3 148 133 138 147 157 152 131 163 155 176
4 127 145 146 140 142 153 163 129 160 160
5 151 129 146 145 133 142 150 157 145 155
6 129 145 137 138 149 132 140 146 151 139
7 129 131 145 141 134 147 139 147 148 160
8 143 128 135 153 143 141 149 132 160 154
9 222 215 204 188 224 203 202 203 194 211
10 228 223 209 215 193 233 213 201 199 206
11 251 240 230 219 207 195 233 205 186 208
12 233 262 243 212 205 204 179 211 175 184
Total
2,190
2,182
2,224
2,170
2,136
2,168
2,206
2,216
2,214
2,293
AVERAGE GRADE SIZE“Average” grade size
• 171/175 K-4• 151/152 5-8• 189/202 9-12
• The distribution of students by grade suggests enrollment will increase if kindergarten remains near its current level
• Kindergarten fluctuated in size but is significantly larger today than ten years ago
RESIDENT LIVE BIRTHS
RESIDENT BIRTHS
Year Minnesota Lyon County
1998 65,207 353
1999 65,953 323
2000 67,451 350
2001 66,617 333
2002 68,037 332
2003 70,053 292
2004 70,617 318
2005 70,950 320
2006 73,515 382
2007 73,675 366
2008 72,382 376
2009 70,617 378
2010 68,407 362
2011 68,416 373
2012 68,783 347
2013 69,183 361
MACRO TRENDSAging population
• Less mobility• Decrease in school age population per household• Shift in size of adult age groups
Less demand for single-family detached housing
More births this decade and the next (Gen Y)• Another enrollment cycle (third)
Rising elementary enrollment in the first half of the cycle
Another large graduating class about 2040 (end of cycle)
PROJECTION METHODOLOGIESCohort survival method
Projections by gradeReflects recent births and current size of
gradesDifficult to calibrate survival rates to reflect
additional housing units, especially if a large number of units
KINDERGARTEN POOLBirth Years County Pool Percentage Kindergarten
1998; 1999 332 40.36% 2004-05
1999; 2000 341 48.68% 2005-06
2000; 2001 339 44.25% 2006-07
2001; 2002 332 53.01% 2007-08
2002; 2003 306 47.06% 2008-09
2003; 2004 309 53.07% 2009-10
2004; 2005 319 52.66% 2010-11
2005; 2006 362 51.38% 2011-12
2006; 2007 371 50.13% 2012-13
2007; 2008 373 49.33% 2013-14
2008; 2009 377 51.19% 2014-15
2009; 2010 368 2015-16
2010; 2011 369 2016-17
2011; 2012 355 2017-18
2012; 2013 357 2018-19
KINDERGARTEN CAPTURE RATESCohort survival method
Kindergarten Assumptions (based on 2013 data) Low is 50.3%, the average of the past three years High is 51.3%, the average of the past five years
Longer-term Lyon County births are higher than projected, so
adjusted upward by 5.5%
KINDERGARTEN PROJECTIONS
Year @50.3% @51.3%
2013-14 184 184
2014-15 190 193 193 193
2015-16 185 189
2016-17 186 189
2017-18 189 193
2018-19 191 194
2019-20 193 197
2020-21 195 199
2021-22 196 200
2022-23 196 200
2023-24 196 200
Total 1,917 1,954
NET MIGRATIONSCHOOL YEAR TO SCHOOL YEAR
Grade 04 to 05
05 to 06
06 to 07
07 to 08
08 to 09
09 to 10
10 to 11
11 to 12
12 to 13
K-4 -13 -18 35 -14 -35 -3 -3 -10 -13
5-8 1 -3 13 3 -5 4 4 -10 25
9-12 83 96 80 56 54 68 55 23 13
Total 71 75 128 45 14 69 56 3 25
NET MIGRATIONSCHOOL YEAR TO SCHOOL YEAR
Grade 05 to 06
06 to 07
07 to 08
08 to 09
09 to 10
10 to 11
11 to 12
12 to 13
13 to 14
K-4 -18 35 -14 -35 -3 -3 -10 -13 -13
5-8 -3 13 3 -5 4 4 -10 25 4
9-12 96 80 56 54 68 55 23 13 70
Total 75 128 45 14 69 56 3 25 61
NET MIGRATION BY GRADEGrade 04 to
0505 to
0606 to
0707 to
0808 to
0909 to
1010 to
1111 to
1212 to 13
K to 1 -3 -15 11 -15 -13 1 -6 -5 -111 to 2 -12 -1 3 6 -7 2 -6 -7 12 to 3 0 1 8 -7 -10 -2 -2 4 03 to 4 2 -3 13 2 -5 -4 11 -2 -34 to 5 -2 2 1 -1 -7 0 -3 -6 165 to 6 -5 -6 8 -8 4 -1 -2 -4 -66 to 7 6 2 0 4 -4 -2 7 7 27 to 8 2 -1 4 8 2 7 2 -7 138 to 9 47 72 76 53 71 60 61 54 629 to 10 9 1 -6 11 5 9 10 -1 -410 to
1115 12 7 10 -8 2 0 -8 -15
11 to 12
12 11 3 -18 -14 -3 -16 -22 -30
Total 71 75 128 45 14 69 56 3 25
NET MIGRATION BY GRADEGrade 05 to
0606 to
0707 to
0808 to
0909 to
1010 to
1111 to
1212 to 13
13 to 14
K to 1 -15 11 -15 -13 1 -6 -5 -11 -71 to 2 -1 3 6 -7 2 -6 -7 1 -52 to 3 1 8 -7 -10 -2 -2 4 0 -63 to 4 -3 13 2 -5 -4 11 -2 -3 54 to 5 2 1 -1 -7 0 -3 -6 16 -55 to 6 -6 8 -8 4 -1 -2 -4 -6 -66 to 7 2 0 4 -4 -2 7 7 2 97 to 8 -1 4 8 2 7 2 -7 13 68 to 9 72 76 53 71 60 61 54 62 519 to 10 1 -6 11 5 9 10 -1 -4 1210 to
1112 7 10 -8 2 0 -8 -15 9
11 to 12
11 3 -18 -14 -3 -16 -22 -30 -2
Total 75 128 45 14 69 56 3 25 61
PROJECTED SURVIVAL RATESGrade Low (past 5 years) High (past 3 years)
K to 1 0.959 0.959
1 to 2 0.980 0.976
2 to 3 0.987 1.003
3 to 4 0.996 1.013
4 to 5 1.003 1.022
5 to 6 0.988 0.974
6 to 7 1.015 1.039
7 to 8 1.024 1.017
8 to 9 1.430 1.423
9 to 10 1.018 1.008
10 to 11 0.972 0.962
11 to 12 0.920 0.893
ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONSBased on 2014, enrollment projections based
on 2013 data are still reasonable. No reason to make new projections
ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONSYear
Low KLow Mig
High KLow Mig
Low KHigh Mig
High KHigh Mig
2013-14 2,214 2,214 2,214 2,214
2014-15 2,271 2,274 2,270 2,273
2015-16 2,324 2,331 2,324 2,331
2016-17 2,374 2,381 2,379 2,389
2017-18 2,418 2,431 2,432 2,446
2018-19 2,443 2,459 2,468 2,484
2019-20 2,478 2,498 2,515 2,536
2020-21 2,519 2,542 2,566 2,590
2021-22 2,566 2,593 2,624 2,651
2022-23 2,592 2,623 2,657 2,689
2023-24 2,625 2,661 2,693 2,730
ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONSK-4 5-8 9-12 Total
2013-14 856 604 754 2,214
2018-19
Low K/Low Mig
894 677 872 2,443
High K/Low Mig
910 677 872 2,459
Low K/High Mig
901 708 859 2,468
High K/High Mig
917 708 859 2,484
2023-24
Low K/Low Mig
927 699 999 2,625
High K/Low Mig
946 712 1,003 2,661
Low K/High Mig
934 733 1,026 2,693
High K/High Mig
953 746 1,030 2,730
HOUSING Maxfield Research, Inc. findings:
Demand to support 608 general occupancy housing units in City of Marshall between 2015 and 2025 Demand expected to favor rental housing, with 371
rental units and 237 for-sale housing units needed in City of Marshall by 2025 Based on recent sale transactions, housing demand
is highest for modestly-priced housing in the $100,000 to $150,000 range