Enrollment Growth Possibilities

How to grow enrollment1. Add new students and maintain Retention

and Progression

2. Increase Retention and Progression and maintain recruitment

3. Increase Both

4. Offset declines in one with increases in the other

– Graduation is a double-edged sword

Variables in Growth

• New Freshmen

• New Transfers

• Retention (Returning Freshmen)

• Progression (other Returning Students)

• Graduate

Show 2018 Enrollment Projection What If.xls

USG Data from WICHE (pub and private HS)

Fall HS Grads Actual UWG Percent2001 72746 1551 2.13%2002 76591 1621 2.12%

2003 77800 1738 2.23%2004 78956 1702 2.16%2005 79935 1640 2.05%2006 82992 1709 2.06%2007 86871 1790 2.06%2008 90806 18712009 91506 18852010 92201 18992011 93737 19312012 93127 19182013 94312 19432014 95585 19692015 99167 20432016 102815 21182017 106376 21912018 111338 2294

New Freshmen Projection

Admission Standard Change

Base Data: USG Trends 2018 (WICHE Georgia public and private HS Graduation)

Top 40 Population Growth, Primary Draw

Top 40 Population Growth, Secondary Draw

<20= 

20-49= 

50-99= 

100-299= 

>300= 

USG Data from WICHE (pub and private HS)

Fall HS Grads Actual UWG Fall Fall Retained Percent2001 72746 1551 20012002 76591 1621 2002 1123 72.40%

2003 77800 1738 2003 1130 69.71%2004 78956 1702 2004 1242 71.46%2005 79935 1640 2005 1209 71.03%2006 82992 1709 2006 1164 70.98%2007 86871 1790 2007 1213 71%2008 90806 1871 2008 12712009 91506 1885 2009 13282010 92201 1899 2010 13382011 93737 1931 2011 13492012 93127 1918 2012 13712013 94312 1943 2013 13622014 95585 1969 2014 13792015 99167 2043 2015 13982016 102815 2118 2016 14502017 106376 2191 2017 15042018 111338 2294 2018 1556

Freshman Retention

Base Data: USG Trends 2018 (WICHE Georgia public and private HS Graduation)

Retention - Progression 4-Year Grad Rate 5-Year Grad Rate 6-Year Grad Rate Transfer Out Rate

1st Year Retention Rate 2004 (Full-Time

Students)

California State Polytechnic University-Pomona 9.10% 31.10% 45.90% 36.90% 85%Cuny Queens College 22.80% 44.20% 50.50% 23.50% 84%Pennsylvania State University-Penn State Altoona 35% 60.80% 65.40% N/A 83%Bloomsburg University Of Pennsylvania 37.60% 60.60% 62.80% N/A 82%Montclair State University 23.40% 50.40% 58.30% 15.40% 82%Eastern Illinois University 32.60% 56.20% 60.60% 27.70% 81%Northwest Missouri State University 25.30% 50% 54.40% 29.40% 81%Sonoma State University 19.10% 41.60% 48.20% 44.50% 80%University Of Michigan-Flint 10% 26.80% 37% N/A 80%University Of Northern Iowa 33.60% 60.90% 65% 0.10% 80%Western Illinois University 32.10% 51.70% 55.40% 24.20% 79%Central Washington University 20.80% 44.90% 51.60% N/A 78%Fitchburg State College 21.20% 48.10% 54.80% N/A 78%Radford University 36.90% 49.70% 51.30% N/A 78%Pittsburg State University 41.90% 49.30% 50.70% 10.80% 77%Suny College At Plattsburgh 32.10% 51.50% 52.90% 22.40% 77%Kutztown University Of Pennsylvania 24.10% 47.70% 51.40% N/A 76%University Of Massachusetts-Dartmouth 27.90% 46.70% 50.70% N/A 76%University Of New Mexico-Main Campus 10.20% 32.40% 40.70% N/A 76%Valdosta State University 18.10% 34.80% 41% 28.90% 76%William Paterson University Of New Jersey 16% 42.10% 48.10% 20.40% 76%Bridgewater State College 19.30% 43.20% 47.80% N/A 75%Southern Illinois University Edwardsville 18.60% 37.40% 44.80% 24.20% 75%University Of Nebraska At Omaha 10.20% 28.50% 37.40% N/A 75%South Dakota State University 24.10% 48.70% 54.50% N/A 74%University Of Montevallo 20.50% 39.90% 45.40% 31.20% 73%University Of Wisconsin-Stout 14% 41.20% 48% N/A 73%Western Kentucky University 26.80% 42.50% 45.50% N/A 73%Louisiana Tech University 27.90% 45.10% 48.90% N/A 72%Marshall University 16.50% 34.10% 42.50% 16.20% 72%Tennessee Technological University 5.70% 26.20% 45.10% 24.30% 72%Winthrop University 32.70% 55.10% 59.80% 19% 72%Central Missouri State University 22.60% 44.50% 49.90% 18.20% 71%Saginaw Valley State University 8% 27.40% 36.20% N/A 71%Saint Cloud State University 16.20% 39.30% 46.40% 25.80% 71%University Of West Georgia 9% 25.70% 31.90% 31.60% 71%Western Carolina University 22.70% 42.90% 47.40% 24% 71%Frostburg State University 17.70% 40.60% 47% 29.70% 70%Southeast Missouri State University 23% 45.80% 50.80% 18% 70%The University Of Tennessee-Martin 18.90% 34.70% 40.20% N/A 70%University Of North Alabama 15.70% 33.10% 37.60% 31.40% 70%Emporia State University 22.70% 40% 44.40% 15.10% 68%Sam Houston State University 11.80% 30.40% 38.70% 0.80% 68%Stephen F Austin State University 15% 30.50% 35.10% 49% 67%University Of Southern Maine 12.20% 29.60% 34.20% 37.60% 67%Western Oregon University 18.30% 39.70% 44.50% 18.60% 67%The University Of Tennessee-Chattanooga 23.60% 41.30% 45.40% N/A 65%Coastal Carolina University 21.30% 37.80% 42.90% 15.70% 64%Fort Hays State University 23.20% 46.70% 48.60% N/A 64%University Of Central Oklahoma 12.20% 28.20% 34.80% 37.70% 64%West Texas A & M University 12.80% 27.70% 33.40% N/A 64%

Overview – FY Programs

• Classroom-based– UWG 1101

• First-Year Success Course

– Learning Communities– Honors College

• Mentor-based– First-Year Residents

Succeeding Together (FYRST)

– FY Student Mentoring• HOPE • Minority Achievement• First-Year Student

Do they Work?

• Fall 2005 Cohort—5% higher Retention than non-users (non-isolated) (statistically significant)

– Learning Communities– FYRST– UWG 1101

• Honors—extremely high Retention• Mentorship Programs

– little information as of yet– developing tracking mechanism for 06 cohort

Fall USG Total Actual Percent2001 217546 510 0.23%2002 233098 576 0.25%

2003 247020 634 0.26%2004 253000 615 0.24%2005 253552 577 0.23%2006 261281 591 0.23%2007 272438 627 0.23%2008 284272 6542009 285953 6582010 287824 6622011 292552 6732012 290419 6682013 294153 6772014 298209 6862015 309763 7122016 321545 7402017 333056 7662018 349109 803

New Transfer Projection

Base Data: USG Trends 2018

Fall USG Total Actual Percent2001 217546 4098 1.88%2002 233098 4187 1.80%2003 247020 4384 1.77%2004 253000 4553 1.80%2005 253552 4756 1.88%2006 261281 4850 1.86%2007 272438 4904 1.80%2008 284272 51172009 285953 51472010 287824 51812011 292552 52662012 290419 52282013 294153 52952014 298209 53682015 309763 55762016 321545 57882017 333056 59952018 349109 6284

Continuing UG ProjectionFreshmen, Sophomores, Juniors, and Seniors

Base Data: USG Trends 2018

Transient, Joint, and Other

Fall Actual2001 1322002 1402003 1572004 1502005 1482006 161

Continuing Projection of 160 students

Other

Fall UG Grad Ratio UG/Grad2001 1,7862002 7647 2,012 26.31%2003 8043 2,210 27.48%2004 8262 1,937 23.44%2005 8330 1,808 21.70%2006 8475 1,688 19.92%2007 8693 1739 20%2008 9072 18142009 9178 18362010 9241 18482011 9378 18762012 9345 18692013 9436 18872014 9562 19122015 9889 19782016 10256 20512017 10616 21232018 11096 2219

Graduate Projection

Fall Total2002 9,6592003 10,2532004 10,1992005 10,1382006 10,1632007 10,4322008 10,8862009 11,0142010 11,0892011 11,2542012 11,2142013 11,3232014 11,4752015 11,8672016 12,3072017 12,7392018 13,316

Total Enrollment

Total Enrollment to 2018 (USG Projection)

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

10,432

10,886

11,254

13,316

Fall Total2002 9,6592003 10,253 6.15%2004 10,199 -0.53%2005 10,138 -0.60%2006 10,163 0.25%

2007 10,432 2.65%2008 10,886 4.35%2009 11,014 1.17%2010 11,089 0.68%2011 11,254 1.49%2012 11,214 -0.36%2013 11,323 0.98%2014 11,475 1.33%2015 11,867 3.42%2016 12,307 3.71%2017 12,739 3.51% 16 yr ave2018 13,316 4.52% 2.05%2019 13589 2.05%2020 13867 2.05%2021 14151 2.05%2022 14442 2.05%2023 14738 2.05%2024 15040 2.05%2025 15348 2.05%2026 15663 2.05%

2027 15984 2.05%

Current Trend 25 Yr Model

Overall Enrollment 25 Year Trend

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000

16,000

Year

Stu

den

ts

10,43210,886

11,254

13,316 14,151

15,040

15,984

Fall UG Grad Total2006 8475 1,688 10,1632007 8729 1705 104342008 8991 1722 107132009 9261 1739 110002010 9539 1757 112952011 9825 1774 115992012 10120 1792 119112013 10423 1810 122332014 10736 1828 125642015 11058 1846 129042016 11390 1865 132542017 11731 1883 136152018 12083 1902 139852019 12446 1921 143672020 12819 1940 147602021 13204 1960 151632022 13600 1979 155792023 14008 1999 16007

2024 14428 2019 16447

2025 14861 2039 16900

2026 15307 2060 173662027 15766 2080 17846

Fixed Percent Model (UG 3%; Grad 1%)

Enrollment Growth Possibilities

8475

1,688

8729

1705

8991

1722

9261

1739

9539

1757

9825

1774

10120

1792

10423

1810

10736

1828

11058

1846

11390

1865

11731

1883

12083

1902

12446

1921

12819

1940

13204

1960

13600

1979

14008

1999

14428

2019

14861

2039

15307

2060

15766

2080

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026

Year

Fixed Percent Model (UG 3%; Grad 1%)

Grad

UG

17846

13985

Variables in Growth

• Playtime!

Show 2018 Enrollment Projection What If.xls

Limiting Factors

• Attracting New Students– Recruitment Resources

• Number of Recruiters• Expense of Travel/Budget for Recruitment Support• Scholarships• Waivers

– Capacity– Number and Scope of Academic Programs– Institutional Image and Reputation– Ease of Transfer/Transfer Policies

Limiting Factors

• Retention and Progression– Realistic Expectation of Retention Rate

Range [see www.collegeresults.org]– Academic Factors

• Probation/Suspension/Dismissal• DFWI Rates• Academic Support/Resources• Effective Advising• First Year Programs• Course Availability• Program Admission

Limiting Factors

• Retention and Progression– Non-Academic Factors

• Ability to Pay/Financial Aid• Student Support• Residence Hall Capacity/Marketing• First Year Programs• Discipline Issues• Involvement/Integration• Quality of Life issues