Enhancing Resilience to Climate Change
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Enhancing Resilience to Climate Change Rob McKeown Engineer, Standards & Policy Planning Engineering & Construction Division Ontario Climate Consortium April 26th, 2017 Ontario Science Centre
Transcript of Enhancing Resilience to Climate Change
Enhancing Resilience to
Climate Change
Rob McKeown
Engineer, Standards & Policy Planning
Engineering & Construction Division
Ontario Climate Consortium
April 26th, 2017
Ontario Science Centre
Toronto Hydro2 | April 26th, 2017
Toronto Hydro3 | April 26th, 2017
Toronto Hydro4 | April 26th, 2017
Generation
In Ontario, 70% of electricity is generated by Ontario Power
Generation. This provincially-owned organization has
generating stations across the province that produce
electricity from hydroelectric, nuclear and fossil fuel sources
Toronto Hydro5 | April 26th, 2017
Transmission
Once electricity is generated, it must be delivered to urban and rural areas
in need of power. This happens through high voltage transmission lines that
serve as highways for electricity. There are approximately 30,000 km of
transmission lines in Ontario and the majority are owned by Hydro One.
Toronto Hydro6 | April 26th, 2017
Distribution
Toronto Hydro is responsible for the last step of the
journey: distributing electricity to customers in Toronto.
Toronto Hydro7 | April 26th, 2017
Climate Change Adaptation
Mitigation AdaptationEmergency
Management
Source: thestar.comSource: news.nationalpost.com
Toronto Hydro8 | April 26th, 2017
Vulnerability Assessment
Phase 1
Vulnerability Assessment
Phase 2
Roadmap Development
Roadmap Implementation
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
System Resilience Enhancements
Climate Change Adaptation
Toronto Hydro9 | April 26th, 2017
Vulnerability Assessment
Phase 1
Vulnerability Assessment
Phase 2
Roadmap Development
Roadmap Implementation
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
System Resilience Enhancements
Climate Change Adaptation
July 2013 – Extreme rainfall (126mm in 2 hrs)
325,000 customers impacted
Flooding of station control equipment
news.nationalpost.com
Toronto Hydro10 | April 26th, 2017
Vulnerability Assessment
Phase 1
Vulnerability Assessment
Phase 2
Roadmap Development
Roadmap Implementation
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
System Resilience Enhancements
Climate Change Adaptation
December 2013 – Ice storm
300,000 customers impacted
Tree limbs falling on power lines
Toronto Hydro11 | April 26th, 2017
Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment
• Engineers Canada’s
Public Infrastructure
Engineering Vulnerability
Committee (PIEVC)
Engineering Protocol
• Consortium: AECOM,
City of Toronto, Clean
Air Partnership,
Engineers Canada, Risk
Sciences International…
• NRCan funding
• Available at:
www.pievc.ca
Phase 1
• Pilot case study
• Current climate
only
• Small portion of
distribution system
• Completed Sept
2012
Phase 2
• 2010-2050, 20
climate parameters
• Entire distribution
system
• Completed June
2015
Toronto Hydro12 | April 26th, 2017
PIEVC Phase 2
Toronto Hydro13 | April 26th, 2017
PIEVC Phase 2
City of Toronto
Toronto Hydro14 | April 26th, 2017
Vulnerability Assessment Adaptation
Opportunities
• Infrastructure strengthening
• Capacity planning
• Inspection and maintenance programs
• Data collection and quality
Toronto Hydro15 | April 26th, 2017
Ongoing System Resilience Enhancements
Capital & Maintenance Programs
Rear Lot
Conversion
Overhead Infrastructure
Relocation
Tree Trimming Standards
City of Toronto Strategic Forest Management Plan 2012-2020
Toronto Hydro16 | April 26th, 2017
Ongoing System Resilience Enhancements
New Technologies
Breakaway
Connectors
Stainless Steel
Submersible
Transformers
www.carte.ca
Solid Dielectric
Submersible
Transformers
www.cheryongusa.com
Toronto Hydro17 | April 26th, 2017
Roadmap Development
• Multi-disciplinary team
• Looking at data, analysis tools, investment
programs, standards,…
• Develop initiatives to help make system
more resilient
Toronto Hydro18 | April 26th, 2017
Roadmap Development
Toronto Hydro19 | April 26th, 2017
Roadmap Development
• Climate data validation
• Asset lifecycle
• Equipment specifications
• Capital and maintenance
programs
• Planning data, tools,
guidelines
• Design practices
• Construction standards
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2016 2017
MAJOR EQUIPMENT TECHNICAL SPECIFICATIONS REVIEW
ASSET IMPACT STUDY
RISK MAPS
LIGHTNING MAPPING
OVERHEAD LINES EXITING
STATIONS
UPDATE SYSTEM PLANNING GUIDELINESTO INCLUDE CLIMATE CHANGE
MAINTENANCE PROGRAM REVIEW
VALIDATECLIMATE DATA
REVIEW ASSET RENEWAL
LOAD FORECAST IMPACT/SENSITIVITY
CAPITAL PROGRAM REVIEW
INDUSTRY REVIEW
ANALYTICAL TOOLS REVIEW
MONITORING RELIABILITY
Toronto Hydro20 | April 26th, 2017
Validate Climate Data
Toronto Hydro21 | April 26th, 2017
Validate Climate Data
Toronto Hydro22 | April 26th, 2017
Validate Climate DataHistorical Climate Data
• Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC)
• Natural Resources Canada
Climate Projection Data within CCHIP
• Suite of models used
• Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
(CMIP5), coordinated by the World Climate
Research Program.
• List of models available on the website
Toronto Hydro23 | April 26th, 2017
Load Forecast Impact/Sensitivity
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Bus P
eak (
MV
A)
Year
Actual New Methodology 2012 Traditional
• Station Load Forecast report is prepared annually
• Used for the purpose of evaluating station bus
capacity adequacy
Toronto Hydro24 | April 26th, 2017
Load Forecast Impact/Sensitivity
• Station Load Forecast report is prepared annually
• Used for the purpose of evaluating station bus
capacity adequacy
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
Bus P
eak (
MV
A)
Year
Projected Base Historical
Toronto Hydro25 | April 26th, 2017
Major Equipment Specifications
• Technical Specifications for
Major Equipment
• Codes, Standards and
Regulations typically use
historical values.
• Review specifications,
investigate impacts of climate
projections and revise as
necessary.
Toronto Hydro26 | April 26th, 2017
Asset Impact Study
• Transformers vs temperature
• Poles vs climatic loads
• Overhead conductors vs
climatic loads
• Underground cables vs
extreme rainfall
• Overhead conductors vs
temperature
Toronto Hydro27 | April 26th, 2017
• Risks maps were completed at a high level
• Narrow down to asset level to be more useful to
planning teams
Risk Maps
Toronto Hydro28 | April 26th, 2017
Transformers at End of Life for 2016 - 2020
Risk Maps
Toronto Hydro29 | April 26th, 2017
Transformers at End of Life for 2016 - 2020
Risk Maps
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Expected End of Life for Transformer
EOL from Aging EOL from Heat
Toronto Hydro30 | April 26th, 2017
Lightning Mapping
• Lightning strike data over the last 20 years has
been mapped across the city
• Correlation with system outage information will
continue in 2017
Toronto Hydro31 | April 26th, 2017
Industry Review
• Review practices of major
utilities in Canada and
USA
• Paper review on industry
best practices
Toronto Hydro32 | April 26th, 2017
Roadmap Development
• Climate data validation
• Asset lifecycle
• Equipment specifications
• Capital and maintenance
programs
• Planning data, tools,
guidelines
• Design practices
• Construction standards
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2016 2017
MAJOR EQUIPMENT TECHNICAL SPECIFICATIONS REVIEW
ASSET IMPACT STUDY
RISK MAPS
LIGHTNING MAPPING
OVERHEAD LINES EXITING
STATIONS
UPDATE SYSTEM PLANNING GUIDELINESTO INCLUDE CLIMATE CHANGE
MAINTENANCE PROGRAM REVIEW
VALIDATECLIMATE DATA
REVIEW ASSET RENEWAL
LOAD FORECAST IMPACT/SENSITIVITY
CAPITAL PROGRAM REVIEW
INDUSTRY REVIEW
ANALYTICAL TOOLS REVIEW
MONITORING RELIABILITY
Toronto Hydro33 | April 26th, 2017
Toronto Hydro34 | April 26th, 2017
Toronto Hydro35 | April 26th, 2017
Questions
Rob McKeown, P.Eng.
Standards and Policy Planning
Toronto Hydro-Electric System Limited
