Enhancing Resilience 2

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Transcript of Enhancing Resilience 2

  • Enhancing Resilience

    David AlexanderUniversity College London

  • The Philippines, Japan and Mexico:the Odyssey of a disasterologist...

  • Philippines

  • Taclban, E. Visayas Province, LeyteIsland, Philippines, four months aftercyclone Yolanda (Haiyan) 8/11/2013

  • The storm surge exceeded 5 metresin places, and 7,360 people died.

  • House occupiedby a family

    Dangling pieceof concrete

    Vulnerability

    Collapsedsports arena

  • We conducted 160 interviews withsurvivors (a 97% response rate).

  • "Good morning - may weask you some questions?"

  • "Was your house damaged by thecyclone? ... It was destroyed."

  • "Did you build this shelter yourself? ...You did. Did you receive any help? ...No."

  • "Did anyone tell you how tobuild a safe shelter? ... No."

  • "Did you buy the materials?... You found them."

  • "How many people in your family? ...11 before the cyclone, 6 afterwards."

  • "Did you receive a warning? ... Yes.Did you evacuate? ... Women andchildren, not men. They drowned."

  • "Your employment situation? ...Husband was rickshaw driver before

    the cyclone, you are unemployed now."

  • "Did you receive help fromthe Government? ... 15 kilosof rice. Is that all? ... Yes."

  • "From NGOs? ... 12,000 pesosfrom Tzu-Chi Foundation."

  • "What did you use it for?... Building materials."

  • "Were they more expensivethan usual? ... Yes, 30%"

  • Beached ships

    Sea

    Village

  • "What do you know about thereconstruction? ... Nothing."

  • men were more likely to die, womenbore greatest burden in recovery

    cash distribution saved the day forsurvivors but contributed to inflation

    transitional shelter was poorlyconstructed and not hazard-proof

    links between emergency, transitionalphase and reconstruction were very poor

    opportunities to lift people out ofpoverty and destitution not taken.

    Some conclusions on Tacloban

  • Simple, existing knowledge was not widelyutilised to make life safer for survivors.

  • The transitional phase between emergencyand reconstruction remains controversial.

  • Tacloban,Philippines

  • Kesennuma,Japan

  • Thoku earthquakeand tsunami11 March 201118,500 dead,6,150 injuredmax. wave height 40.5 metres500 sq. km devastated in three prefectures.

    Shizugawa,Miyagi Prefecture

  • Cascading effects

    Collateral vulnerability

    Secondarydisasters

    Interaction between risks

    Climatechange

    Probability

    Indeterminacy

    "Fat-tailed" (skewed)distributionsof impacts

  • For what magnitude and frequency ofevent should structural defences be built?

  • Organisation Resources

    Self-organisation

    Imposedorganisation

    Voluntarism

    Community disaster planning

    Laws, protocols, directives

    Standards, norms, guidelines

    Communityresources

    Governmentalresources

    Donations

    International resources

  • "...we had long been alarmed by the lack of gender sensitivity in plans for

    disaster risk reduction and reconstruction."

    Domoto, A. et al. 2013. Disaster Risk Reduction: A Japanese Women's Perspective on 3/11. Japan Women's

    Network for Disaster Risk Reduction, Tokyo, 31 pp.

  • "Organized solely by men and operated on the basisof bureaucratic expediency, the tightly regimented shelters completely disregarded ... womens needs."

    Domoto, A. et al. 2013. Disaster Risk Reduction: A Japanese Women's Perspective on 3/11. Japan Women's

    Network for Disaster Risk Reduction, Tokyo, 31 pp.

  • "...local community leaders, most of whom wereelderly men with outdated values, took charge."

    Domoto, A. et al. 2013. Disaster Risk Reduction: A Japanese Women's Perspective on 3/11. Japan Women's

    Network for Disaster Risk Reduction, Tokyo, 31 pp.

  • "Like most older Japanese, the women were unaccustomed to challenging authority."

    Domoto, A. et al. 2013. Disaster Risk Reduction: A Japanese Women's Perspective on 3/11. Japan Women's

    Network for Disaster Risk Reduction, Tokyo, 31 pp.

  • The disaster hasmany importantcultural connotations

    Rikuzentakata, Iwate Prefecture

  • Memory and commemoration

  • Long term

    Short term

    Emic components

    Etic components

    METAMORPHOSISOF CULTURE

    Experiences of culture[mass-media and consumer culture]

    Accumulated cultural traits and beliefs

    Inherited cultural background

    Ideological(non-scientific)interpretations

    of disaster

    Learned(scientific)

    interpretationsof disaster

  • COASTALNATURALHAZARDS

    The national culture of'top-down' recovery

    and mitigation

    JAPAN

    The localspontaneousrisk aversion

    culture

    The localinherited

    marine culture(bonds withthe sea)

    The national culture ofacceptance of authority

    DYNAMIC STATICOR LESS DYNAMIC

    STATIC

    EXPEDIENT

  • Etic elementsof culture

    Emic elements

    of culture

    Areaof culturalinterpenetration

  • Post-Earthquake Report cardInstitutional learning: professional/bureaucratic

    model (partially successful)Governance: still very top-downVolunteer organisation: progress, but starting

    from a low levelCommunity organisation: weakGender issues: progress, but starting

    from a low levelEnvironmentalism: poorDRR: narrow, dominated by structural solutionsDevelopments beyond Kobe 1995:

    strong in certain sectorsDevelopments beyond Thoku 2011: limited

  • The rapidity of reconstruction in ThokuRegion (7-year programme) means that many

    problems will be faced after it is over,which will make them harder to resolve.

    Time is socially necessary in disaster recovery.

  • Vending machines: the mostresilient things in Japan?

  • Mexico

  • Teziutln

    Puebla

    Mexico City

  • 5 October 1999: Aurora109 dead in landslide here

  • Ayotzingo: a communityreconstructed

  • Urban landslidingin Teziutln

  • Aire Libre: house occupied by afamily threatened with landslide

  • Teziutln: an emergingcivil protection system

  • Functionaldivisions:government,healthcare,

    commerce, etc.

    Hierarchicaldivisions:national,regional,local, etc.

    Geographicaldivisions:catchments,jurisdictions,areas, etc.

    Organisationaldivisions:police, fire, ambulance,

    etc.

    Divisionand

    integration

  • PESTOR

    Policies/Ethics

    Strategies

    Tactics

    Operations

    Results

    Generalpublic

    Public administratorsand politicians

    Emergency andtechnical services

    Commandfunction

    organisation

  • Some of the indicators used to evaluatethe civil protection system in Teziutln

  • System state Capabilities

    Integration with

    other levels and

    services

    Birth of the civil protection system

    Nascent Very few None

    Threshold of an incipient functional entity

    Restricted

    operationSome Limited

    Threshold of widened and improved functionality

    Functional Improved Significant

    Threshold of excellence and efficiency

    Fully efficient Comprehensive Fully integrated

    Stage of

    development*

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    EMERGENCE

  • reveal the weakest parts of the system

    indicate where investment is needed

    help decide priorities for growth

    assess emergency response capacity

    draw an objective picture of the system.

    How does evaluation of a CP system help?

  • Conclusions

  • There is no doubtthat "we live in

    interesting times".

  • "The City of Venice joined the[UNISDR Safe Cities] Campaign

    as a Role Model for cultural heritageprotection and climate change adaptation."

  • corruption

    political decision-making

    shoddy building (often wilful)

    ignorance (sometimes wilful)

    seismicity.

    What causes earthquake disasters?- in probable order of importance -

  • Organisationalsystems:management

    Socialsystems:behaviour

    Naturalsystems:function

    Technicalsystems:

    malfunction

    VulnerabilityHazard

    Resilienc

    e

    Politicalsystems:decisions

  • HUMANCONSEQUENCES

    OF DISASTER

    ORTHODOX MODEL

    PHYSICALEVENT

    HUMANVULNERABILITY

    RADICAL CRITIQUE (K. HEWITT et al.)

    HUMANCONSEQUENCES

    OF DISASTER

    HUMANVULNERABILITY

    PHYSICALEVENT

    PROPOSAL FOR A NEW MODEL

    HUMANCONSEQUENCES

    OF DISASTER

    HUMANVULNERABILITY

    CULTURE HISTORYPHYSICALEVENTS

    CONTEXT & CONSEQUENCES

  • THE PILLARS OF MODERN LIFE

    idealismprinciplebelieffaith

    fanaticismultranationalismauthoritarianism

    backlash

    virtuecharityservicedefence of principles

    unscrupulousnesscorruption

    opportunismcensure

    capital availabilitywealth diffusionfinancial security

    financial repressiondebt burdenconsumerism

    ingegnuitypragmatismtechnological progress

    crass materialismgalloping consumption

    pollution and wastetechnological hegemony

    Ideocentrism

    Morality

    Luchrocentrism

    Technocentrism

    SPI

    RIT

    FLESH

    PHILOSOPH

    ICAL

    MECHANISTIC

    Positive Negative

  • ...culturally conditioned.

    Ideocentrism+ ideal: effective disaster mitigation- fanaticism: