Lara Whitely BinderCenter for Science in the Earth System

Climate Impacts GroupUniversity of Washington

December 2, 2004CIG 5 Year Review

Climate Science in the

Public Interest

The Center for Science The Center for Science in the Earth Systemin the Earth System Enhancing Adaptation to Enhancing Adaptation to Climate Impacts through Climate Impacts through Decision Support and Decision Support and OutreachOutreach

Decision Support and Decision Support and Outreach at CSESOutreach at CSES Decision support and outreach activities at

CSES strive to support CSES efforts to increase regional resilience to the impacts of climate variability and change.

Decision support activities are designed to facilitate the use of climate information in operations and planning.

Outreach activities disseminate information, build stakeholder relationships, and allow for feedback to CSES on research needs, products, and services.

Decision-Support Tools: Climate Variability

Seasonal climate outlook

Long-lead (1 year) climate-based streamflow forecasts

Six-month lead time reservoir forecasts tools (under development)

Oregon Coastal Coho salmon survival forecasts

Extreme weather risk forecasting

Office of the Washington State Climatologist

Designed to help with management on seasonal to interannual time scales. Main products and services:

Seasonal Climate Outlook

CIG researchers evaluate global ENSO forecasts and PDO state for relevance to PNW temperature and precipitation conditions for the coming season.

Outlook is reviewed and updated monthly as needed.

Outlook available on CIG web site and the Washington State Climatologist web site

Benefit: Outlook lets resource managers hedge risks based on historically observed responses to ENSO and PDO.

http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/fpt/cloutlook.shtml

http://www.climate.washington.edu/outlook.html

Long-Lead Experimental Long-Lead Experimental Streamflow Forecasts for the Streamflow Forecasts for the Columbia R. BasinColumbia R. Basin

An important factor in moving water managers towards incorporating climate info

Experimental forecasts made 8-12 months in advance of traditional forecasts

Forecast based on initial conditions, ENSO forecast, PDO state

Benefit: Forecasts guide decisions about reservoir mgmt, hydro production, instream flow mgmt

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Climate Forecast

Estimated Initial Conditions

ForecastEnsemble

Lead time = 12 months

Warm ENSO Only

www.cses.washington.edu/cig/fpt/waterfc/oneyearstreamflow.shtml

Currently developing 6 month streamflow and reservoir forecasts for municipal water supplies in Puget Sound using NCEP forecasts, ESP

Product developed at the request of Puget Sound Water Supply Forum

Benefit: Forecasts will help reservoir managers balance storage, instream flow requirements at critical time periods

Municipal Reservoir Forecasts

Forecast based on ESP

NCEP-based forecast

http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/res/hwr/muniwaterfc.shtml

Oregon Coastal Coho Marine Survival Forecasts

Coastal Ocean Conditions

Sea surface temperatures

Sea level

Nearshore winds

http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/fpt/orcohofc.shtml

Methodology unique in recognizing the impact of winter conditions on coho marine survival.

Provides a pathway for incorporating 1 year lead time climate forecasts into seasonal harvest, allocation, and hatchery decisions

Benefit: Forecasts available 6 to 8 months in advance of traditional forecast methods (jacks, plankton)

Forecasted Jan-March 2005 SST

Forecasted Return Rate for

March 2005

9.33 (1 stand. dev. below mean)

2% (+/- 1%)

10.15(mean value)

1% (+/- 1%)

10.98(1 stand. dev. above mean)

<1%

Experimental 7-14 day extreme weather event risk assessment forecasts available for North America.

Forecasts include probabilities for: Extreme warm/cold days, Days with extremely high

precip, Heavy snowfall events

Benefit: Aids extreme events management

Extreme Weather Risk Forecasting

http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/fpt/extreme.shtml

High snow events are 2-4+ times more likely during negative PNA than positive PNA, depending on location

Reinstituted in 2003 in partnership with the Washington Department of Ecology

Provides support to public and private entities through collection, interpretation, and dissemination of climate data, forecasts, and other information

Staff includes Phil Mote (State Climatologist), CSES researcher and Outreach Specialist, and Robert Norheim (Assist. State Climatologist), CSES GIS Specialist. Office is housed at CSES.

Benefit: Provides an additional avenue for supporting the use of climate information in resource management

Office of the Washington State Climatologist

http://www.climate.washington.edu/

Decision-Support Tools: Climate Change

Climate change impact scenarios

Client-based research consultancies

Climate change streamflow scenarios archive

Technical planning assistance

GIS mapping

Designed to help managers evaluate and respond to projected climate change impacts. Research focused on the 2020s and 2040s. Main “products”:

Temperature and Precipitation Temperature and Precipitation ScenariosScenarios

Projected changes in average annual PNW temperature and precipitation for the decades of the 2020s and 2040s

Benefit: Scenarios allow managers to consider risks of climate change (i.e., “what if” scenarios).

Temperature Precipitation

2020s Annual Oct-Mar Apr-Sept

Low + 0.9 °F + 2 % -4%

Mean + 2.7 °F + 8% +4%

High + 4.7 °F + 18 % +14%

2040s Annual Oct-Mar Apr-Sept

Low + 2.7 °F -2% - 7%

Mean + 4.1 °F +9% +2 %

High + 5.8°F +22% +9%

http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/fpt/ccscenarios.shtml

Based on an average of 8 global climate models driven by an increase in equivalent CO2 of 1% per year. Benchmarked to the decade of the 1990s.

Changes in April 1 snowpack available at basin and sub-basin levels

Scenarios for April 1 Scenarios for April 1 SnowpackSnowpack

Current Climate

-44% -58%

“2020s” (+3°F) “2040s” (+4.5°F)

Client-based Research Client-based Research ConsultanciesConsultancies

City of Portland (2002) Tualatin River Basin (2004) Seattle Public Utilities (2004)

Average Monthly Bull Run Inflows1950-1999

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Climate change impacts on water

demand18%

Climate change impacts on water

supply16%

Impact of population growth on demand

(no climate change)66%

Palmer, R.N. and M. Hahn, 2002. The Impacts of Climate Change on Portland’s Water Supply: An Investigation of Potential Hydrologic Management Implications on the Bull Run System.

Climate Change Streamflow Climate Change Streamflow Scenario Tool for the Scenario Tool for the Columbia River BasinColumbia River Basin

Climate-adjusted streamflow data for 2020s and 2040s available on web site for 90+ locations in the Columbia River Basin

Benefit: Removes a barrier to climate impacts analysis. End user does not have to purchase, learn, and defend a new model to examine climate change impacts. Data can be used in existing planning models.

www.cses.washington.edu/cig/fpt/ccstreamflowtool/sft.shtml

Partners:

Northwest Power and Conservation Council

Idaho Dept of Water Resources

US Bureau of Reclamation

US Army Corps of Engineers

Mapping PNW Climate: GIS Mapping PNW Climate: GIS ToolTool

GIS tool being developed to deliver sub-regionally based information on climate and climate impacts.

Mapping past and future patterns of PNW climate, including future climate scenarios.

Numerous data layers: Elevation, hydrography (rivers/lakes),

watershed boundaries, vegetation and land cover, soils, land ownership, political boundaries

Benefit: Designed to aid planning efforts by providing information about the patterns of variability and change at a variety of spatial scales

Promotes regional understanding of climate impacts in PNW resource management. Activities include:

Workshops and meetings (4-5/year) Presentations and briefings (75+/year) One-on-one technical assistance (ex: watersheds) Work with the local media Web site development and maintenance

Provides opportunity for feedback from the stakeholder community

Outreach

Meetings and WorkshopsMeetings and Workshops Sector-specific meetings with

technical resource staff and senior decision makers:

Climate Impacts on Salmon

Management and Recovery in the Columbia River Basin (9.21.04)

Fall climate and water forecast meetings (WA/OR and ID)

Climate and water policy meetings (2001, 2002)

2005: expansion of salmon and coastal work

http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/outreach/workshops.shtml

Information about climate variability and change needs to be translated for and delivered to the watershed level. CSES has:

Given numerous presentations to planning units and state staff

Developed language for use in planning

CSES is working to: Build relationships with state

staff and local planning units Develop GIS-based maps of

watershed-scale impacts

Technical Assistance for Watersheds

http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/fpt/watershedplan.shtml

WA State watershed planning issues affected by climate change (circled)

Climate change workshop for the press, Nov. 8, 2001 (to be repeated ~2005)

Hundreds of local and national news stories featuring CSES research, researchers since ‘97

Major Seattle PI special report on 11/13/03; 39 stories on web site

Featured in KPLU (88.5 FM) climate change series, KZOK (102.5 FM) morning show

Nate Mantua interviewed for 12/17/03 story on The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer

Work with the Media

http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/about/cignews.shtml

Redesigned in spring 2004 to better serve as a planning resource

An integral component of CSES decision support and outreach efforts

Includes information on: PNW climate and climate

impacts Forecasts and planning

tools Meetings and workshops CIG publications

The New CIG Web SiteThe New CIG Web Sitehttp://www.cses.washington.edu/cig

Additional Directions for Decision Support and Outreach, 2005-2010

Increased collaboration with resource managers and other stakeholders to (but not limited to):

More explicitly identify key climate-sensitive decisions and risk exposures that may benefit from new research, decision-support products

Investigate how improved climate forecasts can be applied to decisions affecting salmon and coastal aquatic communities

CSES will continue to develop, maintain, and transition decision support products for PNW decision makers in 2005-2010. Outreach is an important component of that effort. Proposed outreach activities include:

Additional Directions cont’d Develop an adaptation “handbook” for public agencies

Detailing the range of adaptive strategies to help agencies answer “how do we adapt to climate change?”

Continue expanding, enhancing CSES web site To increase the site’s role as a decision-support resource

Expand outreach to coastal, salmon, forecast sectors Using model from hydrology and water resource work to

expand understanding and use of climate information

GIS mapping, Live Access Server for PNW climate data

Third international workshop on regional integrated assessment (2006) Provides opportunity to both share and learn from other

experiences in integrated assessment

In Summary CSES strives to help the region develop the capacity

to adapt to climate variability and change via: Basic and applied research Development of decision-support tools Outreach

Decision support and outreach efforts have been instrumental in developing and maintaining productive working relationships with the stakeholder community

Demand for CSES’s research and products continues to grow, and CSES will continue to respond to these demands.