Enhanced Land Use Planning in the Philippines. Paving the way towards achieving the SDGs? LANDac Conference| June, 29 - 30th 2017

Dr. Lena Hohfeld

Evaluator

Independent evaluation institute

mandated by the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development „BMZ“

Strategic and complex evaluations of German development cooperation

Founded in November 2012

60+ staff

2

DEval – German Institute for Development Evaluation

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Evaluation of Land Use Planning

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Title: Impact, diffusion and scaling-up of a comprehensive land use planning approach in the Philippines

Evaluation of an approach by Philippine German cooperation, managed by GIZ

Philippine agencies involved: HLURB, NEDA, DILG, NCI and others

Stakeholders in Germany and Philippines were consulted in “reference groups” during the evaluation to ensure utility of results.

Quasi-experimental impact evaluation based on survey data on municipal, village and household level

Mixed methods approach

At the moment, we are preparing FIRST and PRELIMINARY RESULTS!

Land Use Planning Impact Evaluation: SIMPLE intervention

Land use planning in the Philippines before the intervention: multiple policies, different authorities, overlapping mandates

Sustainable Integrated Management and Planning for Local Government Ecosystems (SIMPLE)

Duration: 2006 – 2015 Regional scope: Visayas Region, Philippines Comprehensive land use planning and management

Integrating all ecosystems from ridge to reef Integrating all types of land, public, private and ancestral

Participatory land use planning and management Bottom-up from barangay to municipality Including stakeholders into planning process

SIMPLE consists of: descriptions of processes and instruments for the management

of land use Training components / write workshops / GIS support and

trainings

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GIZ supported Philippine HLURB to reform their national land use planning process.

Comprehensive Land Use Plan Guidebook 2013-2014

Officially released Nov 2015

include their entire administrative territory

ridge-to-reef,

public, private and ancestral lands

stresses importance of risks due to climate change and natural disasters

planning processes at village level not explicitly included

promotes a bottom-up approach of integrating Barangay (village) Development Plans (BDP) in the CLUP

also allows for a top-down approach if no BDPs are available

consultation of stakeholders is advised

National scaling-up

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Enhanced land use planning embedded in the administrative planning framework

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Quasi-experimental design: What would have happened without intervention?

Quantitative survey of 3000 households, 300 village headmen, 100 municipal planning officers.

Panel data 2012 & 2016

Treatment & matched control groups

Propensity score matching with lagged outcome variable

Quasi-Experimental Design

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Methodological Challenges

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Typhoon Yolanda 2013 control for damages using GIS Data, include this information in the matching.

Baseline has been collected after the SIMPLE program had started.

only problematic, if no long-term effects can be found

Start year known Use subsample of municipalities who

received SIMPLE after 2012

SIMPLE was a moving target : treatment varied

Account for treatment intensity (number of trainings)

SIMPLE was not the only project in the area

Include other projects in the matching

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Observation area – endline survey 2012/2013. Treatment (yellow), Control (blue), “Switchers” (shaded)

Theory of change (simplified)

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Land Use Planning

Participatory and

comprehensive land use planning Local governance

Welfare

Sustainable use of resources

Co

ntrib

utio

n to

sustain

able

deve

lop

me

nt go

als (SDG

s)

Disaster risk management

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FIRST & PRELIMINARY RESULTS related to SDGs (part 1)

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No impact on poverty (measured with monetary and non-monetary indicators) found.

Municipalities with treatment take more disaster risk measures, in particular when they received many trainings. Households in municipalities with treatment after 2012 take more disaster risk measures and spend more on those.

Village headmen in treatment areas are more aware of risks related to climate change. This does not hold for municipal planning officers.

Governance

Welfare

Resources

SDG

s

Risk Planning

Governance

Welfare

Resources

SDG

s

Risk Planning

Governance

Welfare

Resources

SDG

s

Risk Planning

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No impacts on existence of coastal protected areas, marine sanctuaries, mangrove reforestation found.

More protected areas and conservation project reported in treatment municipalities, but no effect on tree cover. No impact on land conversion as reported by households. No impact on awareness of households regarding protected areas or conservation projects. Municipal planning officer reported increased participation of villages and households. This result cannot be confirmed on household level: no impacts are found here.

Governance

Welfare

Resources

SDG

s

Risk Planning

Governance

Welfare

Resources

SDG

s

Risk Planning

Governance

Welfare

Resources

SDG

s

Risk Planning

FIRST & PRELIMINARY RESULTS related to SDGs (part 2)

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- For most impact fields positive results for some outcome variables, but results in part inconclusive

- Impacts for many SDG-related outcome variables stronger on municipal level, seems not to „trickle down“ to household level, even when looking at politically more active households.

- Treatment intensity (higher number of trainings) seems to matter.

Report with final results will be published beginning of 2018

Observations across all impact fields

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Thank you for your kind attention!

Dr Lena Hohfeld – lena.hohfeld@deval.org

www.DEval.org

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Relationship of local and national land use planning efforts

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Barangay Development Plan

Participative and Comprehensive Land

Use Planning (PCLUP) on municipal level

GIZ/EnRD “SIMPLE” Approach

(in Region 6 und 8)

HLURB eCLUP guidelines (countrywide)

Barangay Development Plan

Participative and Comprehensive Land

Use Planning (PCLUP) on municipal level

∞

Typhoon Yolanda - November 2013

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• 6,343 confirmed casualties *

• 1,058 people missing *

• Followed by remendous international aid and donor support

Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda)

* National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) 2013 –

Final Report Effects of Typhoon "Yolanda" (Haiyan)

Combination of geographic data with quantitative data analysis

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Evaluation / Sampling Area Municipalities with exposure to SIMPLE are shaded in yellow/orange, control municipalities without intervention are shaded in purple.

Multi-Hazard Maps (Earthquake, Flood, Tsunami, Storm surge, Landslide, Ground rupture)

Typhoon Haiyan intensity and damage maps

Methods and research design

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