ENGM91 ENVIRONMENTAL and LIFE CYCLE COST DRIVERS PROJECT ENVIRONMENTAL AND LIFE CYCLE COST DRIVERS...

ENGM91 ENVIRONMENTAL and LIFE CYCLE COST DRIVERS

PROJECT ENVIRONMENTAL AND LIFE CYCLE COST DRIVERS

BASED AROUND MARINE VEHICLE CONCEPT DESIGN


Presentation

Environmental Concern or Maybe Not

Whole Life Costing

Environmental Drivers

Life Cycle Analysis Tools

Future Upgrading Considerations

Risk Assessment and Safety Case Consideration

Whole Life Analysis and Costing

Conclusions and Discussion



Effective EIA that is acted on is required

Some companies want conclusive proofbefore they will act

Others will act on the balance of probability

World-wide trend is towards developing more environmentally friendly working practices

Need for concept design tools to handle:through life costingenvironmental drivers

Disaster provokes action or often just talk of action


Whole Life Costing

Product ThroughputProduct Price

Annual Net Cash Flows NPV

CapitalCosts

InitialSparesCosts

OperatingCosts

EnergyCosts

M & RCosts

MajorUpdateCosts

Environ-mentalCosts

Down-time

Costs

DisposalCosts

AssetSales

Sales Revenue

Grantsand

Subsidies

TaxCredits

Positive Cash Flows

Negative Cash Flows


Whole Life Costing

Annual Net Cash Flows

Product ThroughputProduct Price AssetSales

Sales Revenue

Grantsand

Subsidies

TaxCredits

Positive Cash Flows – Typical Commercial

Negative Cash Flows


Whole Life Costing


Treasury

AssetSales

Positive Cash Flows - Governmental

Negative Cash Flows


Whole Life Costing

Annual Net Cash Flows NPV

CapitalCosts

InitialSparesCosts

OperatingCosts

EnergyCosts

M & RCosts

MajorUpdateCosts

Environ-mentalCosts

Down-time

Costs

DisposalCosts

Asset AvailabilityAsset Lease (Treasury) AssetSales

Lease Revenue

Grantsand

Subsidies

TaxCredits

Positive Cash Flows – Private Finance

Negative Cash Flows



Clean Design andEnvironmental Drivers

BallastWater

Anti FoulingCoatings

Emissions

Benefit

Regulation

Life CycleCost

DesignModels

Discharges

CommercialConcern

AccidentalGreyWater

OilsBlackWater

Legislation

Types

Treatment

NoBallast

ConstantExchange

DataRequirements

AnalysisEngine

LifeCycle

Analysis

MarketAdvantage

MarketDisadvantage

UPC

TLC

EnvironmentalImpact Assessment

CO2

NOx, SOx

VOC

CO, CnHmSootParticles

Env StdsISO 14000

Regional

National International



Clean Design andEnvironmental Drivers

Benefit

Discharges

AccidentalGreyWater

OilsBlackWater

Anti FoulingCoatings

Legislation

Types

BallastWater

Treatment

NoBallast

ConstantExchange

DesignModels

DataRequirements

AnalysisEngine

LifeCycle

AnalysisCommercial

Concern

MarketAdvantage

MarketDisadvantage

Life CycleCost

UPC

TLC

EnvironmentalImpact Assessment

Emissions

CO2

NOx SOx

VOC

CO, CnHmSootParticles

Env StdsISO 14000

Regulation

Regional

National International


Life Cycle Analysis Tools

Number of LCA Tools developed and utilised

Investigation of UncertaintyAleatory - variability of input dataEpistemic - lack of knowledge in specific area

But …. currently LCA Tools are of little use to most organisations

Basic communications on Environmental Issues neededOnce achieved a LCA Tool may be of use

Requirement for Complex Data

Application of MCDM could decrease uncertainty


Future Upgrading Considerations

PredictabilityScenarios

(Times and Probabilities)

Capacity

Change in Input

Change in Output

Technical Change

Regulatory Change

Bare Minimum Plant

Added Space

Added Services

Margins on

Ancillaries

Margins on

Major Equipment

Most Generous Plant

Capital can Provide

Reasons for Upgrades

Impact


Risk Assessment andSafety Case Consideration

Quantitative Risk Assessment predictions can happen ..


To ensure comprehensiveness Quantitative Risk Assessments should incorporate:

HAZOP, SWIFT, FMECA

Risk based safety assessment now seen as a necessity in Offshore Oil and Gas industry

Safety Case:- UK legal requirement for Land-based and Offshore Process Plant


Quantitative Risk Assessment predictions can happen ..

17 years on such methods still developingTarget constantly moving



Risk Assessment of ship designs is also important ..




Such an assessment should cover:- Normal Operation

hull maintenancereliability

- Performance during and after an incident ..




Such an assessment should cover:- Normal Operation

hull maintenancereliability

- Performance during and after an incident ..

Models are now being developed for the Risk Assessment of various aspects of ship design



Annual Net Cash Flows DCFCalc

CapitalCosts

Commis-sioningCosts

OperatingCosts

EnergyCosts

M & RCosts

UpdateCosts

Sustain-abilityCosts

Down-time

Costs

DisposalCosts

ResidualValue

Grantsand

Subsidies

Fiscal andTax

AllowancesRevenue

OUTLINEDESIGNMODEL

PerformanceSizingLayout

MCDMFactors

InfrastructureCosts

Efficiency, ConsFuel Price

AvailabilityRevenue Loss

EmissionsLegislation

ManufacturingProcess

ProcurementProcess

ManningConsumables

SparesReliability

Design MarginsMidlife Update

DecommissioningClean-up

REVISEDESIGN

ProductPrice

LifeCycle

Process

Comparisonsand DesignDecisions

Equipmentselection

Performance ChangeCost Escalation

Market ChangesRisk Factors

ProductOutput




OUTLINEDESIGNMODEL


ResidualValue

Grantsand

Subsidies

Fiscal andTax

AllowancesRevenue

ProductPrice

ProductOutput




OUTLINEDESIGNMODEL


ResidualValueTreasury



Annual Net Cash Flows DCFCalc

CapitalCosts

Commis-sioningCosts

OperatingCosts

EnergyCosts

M & RCosts

UpdateCosts

Sustain-abilityCosts

Down-time

Costs

DisposalCosts

OUTLINEDESIGNMODEL


MCDMFactors

InfrastructureCosts

Efficiency, ConsFuel Price

AvailabilityRevenue Loss

EmissionsLegislation

ManufacturingProcess

ProcurementProcess

ManningConsumables

SparesReliability

Design MarginsMidlife Update

DecommissioningClean-up

REVISEDESIGN

LifeCycle

Process

Comparisonsand DesignDecisions

Equipmentselection

Performance ChangeCost Escalation

Market ChangesRisk Factors

ResidualValue

Grantsand

Subsidies

Fiscal andTax

Allowances

LeaseRevenue

AssetLease

AssetAvailability


Conclusions

Environmental Sustainability becoming increasingly important in the Marine / Military Industries

Assessment of the Whole Life Cycle

Application of Latest Technologies regarding Construction and Operation

Requirement to assess potentially conflicting Design Drivers to produce optimal Concept Designs

Application of robust Analysis Techniques

Methodologies must be combined as a coherent whole to form the basis of an “Applications Toolbox”

ENGM91 ENVIRONMENTAL and LIFE CYCLE COST DRIVERS PROJECT ENVIRONMENTAL AND LIFE CYCLE COST DRIVERS...

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